Japan is increasingly threatened by an expansionist China and an aggressive Russia, even as North Korea suspends its missile testing program.
According to a Japanese Government document, here’s how Tokyo sees its security environment:
“In the area surrounding Japan, there is a concentration of nations with large-scale military capabilities, and a regional cooperation framework on security has not yet to be fully institutionalized, leading to the existence of uncertainty and unclarity, including the persistence of territorial disputes and unification issues. Meanwhile, there has been a tendency towards an increase in and prolongation of so-called “gray-zone” situations; that is, neither pure peacetime nor contingencies over territory, sovereignty, and economic interests. There has also been a noticeable trend among neighboring countries to modernize and reinforce their military capabilities and to intensify their military activities.
The security challenges and destabilizing factors in the Asia-Pacific region are characterized below:
- North Korea’s military development such as nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development represents an unprecedentedly serious and imminent threat.
- The unilateral escalation of China’s military activities poses a strong security concern for the region including Japan and international community.
- Russia has tendency to intensify its military activities, including in areas surrounding Japan, and this trend needs to paid due attention. Territorial disputes over the Northern Territories and Takeshima, both of which are inherent parts of the territory of Japan, remain unresolved.”
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CHINA
In a published interview, Tokyo’s Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera warned of “imminent threats” to his nation from both Moscow and Beijing, as well as North Korea’s missile and nuclear program. Russia will soon conduct it largest training exercise since the end of the Cold War era and is introducing powerful weapons to territory Japan claims as its own. China has become a military superpower, and has engaged in a threatening manner towards Japan as well as violating international law in the Pacific by invading the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone, and unlawfully laying claim to strategically significant seaways.
Stephen Nagy, an associate professor of international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University, noted in an interview with DW that “Beijing is…demonstrating a very assertive policy in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and using a salami-slicing approach to reduce Japan’s claims to the Senkaku Islands,” Nagy was referring to uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that are controlled by Japan but claimed by China. The DW analysis notes that “The Chinese navy continues to carry out frequent incursions into Japanese territorial waters around the islands, challenging Japan’s claims to control the waters.”
Berkshire Miller, writing in the Japanese publication Nikkei Asian Review warns that “Japan must respond to China’s growing naval power… The crisis over North Korea’s nuclear program has dominated security debate in Northeast Asia over the past year. But Japan must not be distracted from a much more important long-term challenge: China’s enhancement of its military capabilities in the region and its growing assertiveness, driven by President Xi Jinping’s more hawkish and nationalist foreign policy… China is also challenging Japan’s control of critical water and airspace around the Ryukyu Islands, known in Japanese as the Nansei Shoto, as demonstrated by its repeated military exercises in the Miyako Strait in the island chain. In December 2016, Beijing alarmed Tokyo when it conducted a so-called “innocent passage” by sending the aircraft carrier Liaoning and escorts for the first time through the strait. Tokyo and Beijing also continue to be at loggerheads over sharing natural resources in the East China Sea. China has unilaterally accelerated the exploitation of natural resources in the area despite the lack of boundary lines governing the exclusive economic zone or continental shelf in the waters.
Alexander Neill, writing for the BBC, notes that “Japan’s navy and coast guard in recent years have also been under increasing pressure to respond to China’s campaign of incursions into Japan’s territorial waters and frequent transits of vessels and aircraft through the numerous straits of the Japanese archipelago. A focal point for such rivalry are the disputed Senkaku islands, known as Diaoyu in Chinese…the Japanese maritime agencies [have been] alarmed to detect armaments on Chinese coast guard vessels…While in 2012, Japanese and Chinese coast guard vessel numbers were roughly similar at 51 and 40 respectively, the Japanese government estimates that by 2019, the numbers will have swung hugely in favour of China at 135 vessels versus Japan’s 65. And there have been an increasing number of other concerning incidents for Japan in recent years. In June 2016 the Japanese destroyer Setogiri spotted a PLA Navy Jiangkai class frigate entering the contiguous zone around the Senkakus at the same time as a group of Russian navy vessels transited the same waters. That same month, Chinese naval intelligence-gathering ships entered Japan’s territorial sea near Kuchinerabujima and Yakushima islands for the first time and in the southern waters of the Senkaku islands. One particularly unnerving episode for Japan began in early August 2016 when a China coast guard vessel escorted 300 Chinese fishing vessels into waters around the Senkakus, and over four days a total of 15 coast guard ships repeatedly intruded into the waters, half of them armed. The Japanese defence ministry suspects that many of the Chinese fishing vessels belonged to the maritime militia. Meanwhile, the number of Japanese scrambles against Chinese aircraft around the East China Sea and towards the Senkakus has jumped dramatically, surpassing even the annual peak number of 994 during the Cold War. Japanese fighter patrols have also encountered challenging behaviour by Chinese PLA Air Force pilots.”
This is how the Japanese government summarizes the threat from China:
“China, over maritime issues where its interests conflict with others’, continues to act in a way which can be considered assertive, such as attempts at changing the status quo by coercion. China has pressed ahead with rapid and large-scale land reclamation on seven features in the Spratly Islands, installing military facilities such as artillery batteries, and transforming these features into military installations. Furthermore, China is promoting militarization of the Paracel Islands too, as bomber takeoff and landing exercises are pointed out to be implemented, for example. China’s military activities in South China Sea are expanding, and the expansion itself is to change the status quo by coercion and to promote the changed status as an accomplished fact. The United States is conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations in the waters such as South China Sea to cope with over-claiming of maritime interests, including one by China. However, China is exhibiting interest in initiatives to avoid and prevent unexpected contingency in the sea and airspace. For example, in May 2018, Japan and China officially agreed to implement “Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism between the Defense Authorities of Japan-China.” Nevertheless, China’s rapid modernization of the PLA, enhancement of operational capabilities, and unilateral escalation of activities in areas close to Japan, without sufficient transparency, are generating strong security concerns in the region and international community, including Japan. It is probable that the PLA plays a backing role in Belt and Road Initiative through its activities such as sea lane protection. In addition, development of infrastructure under the initiative can lead to further expansion of the PLA’s activities in the area such as the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean.”
The Report Continues Tomorrow
Photo: Japanese forces in training. (JSDF Photo)