Categories
Quick Analysis

Is it World War 3?

Is Russia’s Ukrainian war really an undeclared global conflagration? Food insecurity is a phrase often tossed around in past years. In the past it typically referred to the lack of nutrition available in the developing world. Although the kinetic aspects of the war are being played out on Ukrainian soil, its impact is being felt around the world. The war is coming to our shores, too, as the fractured critical food chain is part of the conflict’s global collateral damage. Prior to this decade most Americans were not accustomed empty store shelves. In the coming months it will emerge as a stark reality in much of the world. On May 18, 2022, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken said, “As with its decision to start this unjustified war, responsibility for the disruption of these supplies and the suffering that it’s causing around the world lies squarely and solely with the Russian Government.”

Ukraine, known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” is unable to plant its wheat crops since the Russian invasion in February. The country’s men are off defending their country and those who remain are unable to safely enter the Russian-mined wheat fields. As the top grain supplier to dozens of African and Middle Eastern countries, officials report that critical food supplies for over 400 million people are threatened by Russia’s war. As the world puts the spotlight on Putin, he is attempting to contort the situation by blaming international sanctions on Russia. The State Department points out that the Russian government is using disinformation to mislead the world about the cause of this crisis.

Food insecurity, already on the rise before the February invasion, is exacerbated by a number of factors. Russian mining of Ukrainian wheat fields is only one factor. Putin also is blocking the maritime transport of grain across the Black Sea. What little is grain harvested is pilfered by Russian forces from warehouses and sold overseas or transported back to Russia. The United States and its partners have “taken great care to avoid exacerbating food insecurity. US sanctions, for example, are specifically written to prevent food insecurity: they include carveouts for agricultural commodities  and permit transactions for the export and re-export of food to and from Russia, even with a sanctioned individual or entity,” according to Blinken. So far this year the US has pledged over $3.6 billion in humanitarian food assistance to help alleviate starvation in the developing world. Over the next five years Washington is adding an  additional $5 billion in aid to stop world hunger. Russia is costing the economies of the world an enormous financial burden, whether or not they have troops on the ground inside Ukraine.

While Russian heavy weapons bombard Ukraine, it state-funded media, according to the State Department, along with Kremlin-aligned proxy disinformation actors are attempting to deflect attention from the war and worsening food crisis by blaming the West. Putin is targeting the Middle East and Africa in an expansive disinformation campaign with false narratives from RT Arabic and RT en Francais, along with help from China’s state media. 

The false claims are extensive and pervasive. The methodology is to flood the news with stories that appear to confirm Russian claims so that the targeted audience begins to believe the repeated messages.  These are only a few of recent claims:

  • Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian grain “Western and Ukrainian disinformation.”
  • In his May 19 United Nations Security Council speech on conflict and food security, Russia’s UN Ambassador Vasiliy Nebenzya accused Europe of “hoarding” Ukrainian grain and engaging in “grain for weapons ” exchanges with Kyiv.
  • Russia’s embassy in Egypt blamed “illegal unilateral sanctions,” while Russia’s embassy in Zimbabwe claimed “Western interference ” in the Global South.
  • In his May 25 Africa Day speech, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attempted  to de-legitimize Ukraine and urged African ambassadors in Moscow to demand the removal of “illegal, anti-Russian” sanctions in order to strengthen food security.
  • OneWorld , a website with ties to Russia’s military intelligence, according  to U.S. officials, echoed Lavrov’s claims, accusing President Zelenskyy of supporting a U.S.-led “global food cartel ” that will wield control over global food supply as a “new hybrid weapon ” against the Global South.
  • In his May 26 interview with RT Arabic, Foreign Minister Lavrov accused  the West of neo-colonialism and of blackmailing African and Arab countries to join “anti-Russia” sanctions, in a bid to build solidarity against what Russia’s propaganda calls the “imperial West.”

Russia’s goal is to use its disinformation skilled to both hide Russia’s culpability and persuade leaders of at-risk countries to support an end to sanctions. The State Department said that “blaming others for the worsening crisis in the global food system are reprehensible.” According to the World Food Program, millions are at risk of a full-scale famine. Putin’s weaponization of food is bringing malnutrition to the most vulnerable populations around the world. His “special military operation” in Ukraine is not only a border war, it is a threat to the entire global community.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: Pixabay