Inf Treaty – Russian Cheating And American Suspension

A report from the Republican Study Committee

Since 2014, Russia has violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by developing a ground-launched cruise missile.
Secretary of State Pompeo joined NATO in declaring that Russia was in material breach of the treaty on December 4, 2018. Russia had 60 days to return to compliance and did not do so.
On February 2, 2019, the United States suspended its compliance with the INF Treaty due to Russia taking no steps to address its violations. Under the terms of the treaty, the U.S. will withdraw formally from the INF Treaty in six months.

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Russia has been violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty since at least 2014, when it began developing an intermediate-range, ground-launched cruise missile. The INF Treaty prohibits ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, both nuclear and non-nuclear, with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, i.e., 300 to 3,400 miles. Russia’s violation of the treaty poses a significant threat to our European allies.

EUROPEAN ALLIES IN RANGE OF NEW RUSSIAN MISSILES

President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev signed the INF Treaty in 1987. At the time, the United States canceled a number of weapon systems including the Pershing ballistic missile program, and Russia and the United States destroyed thousands of weapons.

Beginning as early as the mid-2000s, the U.S. continued to comply with the INF Treaty while Russia did not, a common theme with U.S.-Russian arms-control treaties. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats has described how Russia violated the treaty by testing and flying a missile, the SSC-8, more than 500km. In recent months, Russia has deployed several operational battalions of the SSC-8 missile.

Any intermediate-range missile deployed in Russia poses significant risk to our European allies by making them much more vulnerable to a rapid attack. Russia would be able to threaten our allies in a way that we could not easily counter. The U.S. would be left with much weaker deterrence and defense capabilities.

In addition, China is not a party to the INF Treaty and is developing its own intermediate-range weapons. While the primary reason for withdrawing from the INF Treaty is Russia’s violations, the Trump administration is very concerned about our inability to counter Chinese aggression if we do not have intermediate-range forces to help defend our allies and interests in Asia. President Trump stated his openness to a future INF Treaty that could include China in the State of the Union address. He said that without a new treaty America would “outspend and out-innovate all others” when it comes to military capabilities. China has expressed opposition to a multilateral arms control treaty.

NATO SUPPORT FOR U.S. SUSPENSION OF COMPLIANCE

In a sign of the administration’s successful diplomacy with our strongest allies, NATO has announced its full support for the U.S. suspension of compliance with the INF Treaty. On December 4, 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo joined NATO in declaring Russia to be in “material breach” of the treaty and warned the Kremlin to change course. Under the terms of the treaty, Russia had 60 days to return to compliance with the agreement. NATO has said if Russia does not comply with the treaty, it will take action to ensure the defense of member nations. The organization noted that “Russia will bear sole responsibility for the end of this treaty.”

On February 2, 2019, the United States suspended our compliance with the INF Treaty due to Russia taking no steps to address its violations. Under the terms of the treaty, the U.S. will withdraw formally from the INF Treaty in six months.

ADDITIONAL U.S. RESPONSE TO RUSSIA’S VIOLATION OF INF

Withdrawal is not the only option available to pressure the Russians into complying with the INF Treaty. The U.S. could notify Russia that we do not plan to extend the New START treaty when it expires in February 2021. The United States already complies with New START’s limits on deployed nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles.

Last year, the administration began research and development of conventional ground-launched intermediate-range systems as part of its response to Russia’s violation of the treaty; these efforts could be accelerated.

Currently, the U.S. relies primarily on high-yield nuclear weapons to respond to a nuclear attack. However, the U.S. could accelerate development and fielding of low-yield nuclear weapons and sea-launched cruise missiles. By having a wide spectrum of response capabilities and weapons we can launch from land, air, and sea, we can better deter Russian aggression.

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay