Great Power Politics is Back in Fashion.

Great power politics is back in fashion.

It isn’t a short-term trend or fad; it is the solemn political reality we face today. Russia and China have partnered to push their agenda on the world. Together they intend to knock the United States out of its premier position as leader of the free world and then remake the world in their image. When Ronald Reagan held office in the 1980’s, he labelled the Soviet Union “the evil empire” and led the free world in restraining its aggressive and repressive policies. Today, we are entering a second Cold War period as Moscow and Beijing have teemed up to stop the West from supporting the cause of freedom and fledgling democratic states.

We hear a lot about Chinese military aggression, but what is Russia up to these days? Has it changed its behavior since the days when Mikhail Gorbachev called for accommodation with the West? Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. General Scott D. Berrier, testified before the US Senate Armed Services Committee recently that the two communist giants will be key adversaries within the next two decades in the area of high-technology weaponry. According to Berrier, any of the three main powers, the US, China, or Russia, will possess the most “disruptive” military technologies by 2030-2035. According to Berrier, the new weapons or concepts “will change the character of warfare.” Russian power is not going away.

Russia’s current President, Vladimir Putin, has promised his people a return to the “glory days” of the Russian Empire. He is working hard to make it the new Russian reality. Before becoming president, Putin held the rank of lieutenant colonel as a KGB intelligence officer for 15 years. He then assumed the position of prorector of Leningrad State University, mayor of St. Petersburg, and onto to political positions in Moscow. He is a savvy public politician and a brilliant strategist when it comes to operating behind the scenes. Putin views his partnership with President Xi Jinping as one that provides Russia with the needed financial resources from energy exports and military sales. Russian missile technology still is better than what China possesses. Putin knows this won’t last for long and recognizes he has to take advantage of the situation now. He needs the money to fund his military buildup to make Russia whole again.

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To avert an outright conflict with the United States, Berrier says that Russia has adopted a strategy of targeting military technologies to “match, counter, or offset” US capabilities and those of its other adversaries, rather than pursing pure R&D research inside its “massive” military-industrial complex. Berrier wrote in the DIA report to Congress that Moscow has the ability to produce “large numbers of weapons” today while also expanding its ability to develop cutting-edge technologies. At issue, he says, it that Russia is “challenged both organizationally and technically” to manufacture the “high-tech subcomponents required for advanced weapons” due to “severe funding, resource, and infrastructure constraints” in the S&T sector.

Does that make Russia less dangerous than a rising China? Berrier says that what is means is Putin will rely more heavily on a profusion of new-style nuclear weapons unlike those possessed by the West. Last fall Russia conducted live drills using battlefield nuclear weapons. Their small size may lower the threshold for their use. Putin also has in his inventory an undersea version capable of creating a tsunami that could inundate and destroy infrastructure along vast stretches of the US coastline. Add to this Russian space and counterspace capabilities and cyberspace weapons, and the answer is that Russia remains a formidable power capable of impacting the US and the West should it choose to use its power. The free world must plan for a worst case scenario while hoping for a best case situation.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. She regularly presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay