Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

LEBANON

It appears Lebanon is forming a new government that may be led by a prime minister who is a member of Hezbollah, or at least one who has the strong backing of Hezbollah, according to a senior, unnamed State Department official. In the past the United States had had to work with Lebanonese leaders affiliated with Hezbollah. He added: “Our principles on Lebanon, notwithstanding who may or may not be the next prime minister – because although we have a prime minister-designate, it’s unclear whether they will be able to find a government, be able to form a government – is that this government must be capable of and committed to pursuing reform and fighting corruption.”

Washington is highly skeptical that a government led by Hizballah would be capable of or committed to fighting corruption as it is an organization that depends greatly on corruption for its survival and funding its criminal enterprise and terrorist activities, the official noted. He also added that no government, including Great Britain, China, Russia, France, Italy or the United States is going to bail out Lebanon financially if it is not committed wholeheartedly to financial reform and stopping corruption.

LIBYA

As 2019 ends and a new year begins Libya remains an enormous and escalating concern for Washington. Field Marshal Shalifa Belqasim Haftar is engaged in a second civil in Libya that threatens to further destabilize the country. According to a senior State Department official, there is increased Egyptian support for Hiftar, but he is “most concerned about increased Russian support for Hiftar, increasing numbers of Russian mercenaries on the ground, increasing number – amount of violence, shelling of civilian areas in Tripoli, and of course, the prospect of increased Turkish involvement….” Washington is pushing for a negotiated diplomatic solution and continues to back the Berlin Process which is attempting to develop a consensus on governance and security arrangements.

RUSSIA

The United States is concerned that Nord Stream 2, an undersea pipeline Russia is attempting to lay, will be used in support of Moscow’s campaign of aggression against the Ukraine. The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) signed by President Trump, calls for immediate cessation of construction-related activity in a “good faith wind-down” by parties that have sold, leased, or provided vessels engaged in laying pipe at depths of over 100 feet for the construction of Nord Stream 2 or face American sanctions.

According to the State Department, the pipeline would allow Russia to bypass the Ukraine for gas transit to Europe and deprive that country of “substantial transit revenues on imports of Russian natural gas.” It also portends a heavy reliance on Russia by western Europe which created both economics and political vulnerabilities in the region. The United States and most of western Europe oppose Nord Stream 2.

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According to the new NDAA legislation, the Secretary of State has up to 60 days to issue a report to Congress to identify violating entities. This is consistent with past US Administrations that also opposed the construction. Diversification of Europe’s energy supplies will continue to promote security for the region by reducing the influence of geopolitics, according to the State Department. Purchasing US LNG already has saved European consumers $8 billion by enabling countries to negotiate lower prices.

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, in a press interview this week, called on the Palestinian Authority and Israel to meet to try to work out a political solution to the complex territorial issues plaguing the area. The result, he added, must be one that provides a beneficial outcome for both sides.

Pompeo pointed out that “the parties have to have leaders that are prepared to do things that are difficult. But more importantly, they need to be prepared to engage in a set of conversations….” He said that arguing over who is right or wrong as a matter of international law is not going to get peace. “It’s a complex political problem only resolvable between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We’re – we the United States is committed to help facilitating that. We’ll do what we can.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Part 3: AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

We conclude our summary of the urgent recommendation of the Congressional Committee on the nation’s Strategic Posture NON-NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES The Commission recommends: The United States urgently deploy a more resilient space architecture and adopt a strategy that includes both offensive and defensive elements to ensure U.S. access to and operations in space. The United States and its Allies take steps to ensure they are at the cutting edge of emerging technologies – such as big data analytics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) – to avoid strategic surprise and potentially enhance the U.S. strategic posture. The United States prioritize funding and accelerate long-range non-nuclear precision strike programs to meet the operational need and in greater quantities than currently planned. x America’s Strategic Posture The United States develop and field homeland IAMD that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat.4 The Secretary of Defense direct research, development, test and evaluation into advanced IAMD capabilities leveraging all domains, including land, sea, air, and space. These activities should focus on sensor architectures, integrated command and control, interceptors, cruise and hypersonic missile defenses, and area or point defenses. The DOD should urgently pursue deployment of any capabilities that prove feasible. The Secretary of Defense and the Military Departments transfer operations and sustainment responsibility for missile defense to the appropriate Military Departments by 1 October 2024. This will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to focus on research, development, prototyping and testing. ALLIES AND PARTNERS The Commission believes it is in the U.S. national interest to maintain, strengthen, and when appropriate, expand its network of alliances and partnerships. These relationships strengthen American security by deterring aggression regionally, before it can reach the U.S. homeland, while also enabling U.S. economic prosperity through access to international markets. Withdrawing from U.S. alliances and partnerships would directly benefit adversaries, invite aggression that the United States might later have to reverse, and ultimately decrease American, allied, and partner security and economic prosperity. Further, the Commission believes that our defense and the defense of the current international order is strengthened when Allies can directly contribute to the broader strategic posture, and the United States should seek to incorporate those contributions as much as possible. The Executive branch should recognize that any major change to U.S. strategic posture, policies, or capabilities will have great effect on Allies’ perceptions and their deterrence and assurance requirements. As a result, any changes should be predicated on meaningful consultations. RISK REDUCTION The Commission believes it is of paramount importance for the United States to work to reduce strategic risks. This involves activities and programs across the U.S. government, including in nonproliferation and arms control, as well as maintaining strong, viable, and resilient military forces. The Commission recommends that a strategy to address the two-nuclear-peer threat environment be a prerequisite for developing U.S. nuclear arms control limits for the 2027-2035 timeframe. The Commission recommends that once a strategy and its related force requirements are established, the U.S. government determine whether and how nuclear arms control limits continue to enhance U.S. security. The Commission recommends that the United States continue to explore nuclear arms control opportunities and conduct research into potential verification technologies in order to support or enable future negotiations in the U.S. national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types, should the geopolitical environment change. Where formal nuclear arms control agreements are not possible, the Commission recommends pursuing nuclear risk reduction measures to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty and the chances for misperception and miscalculation. The 2009 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States reported that the United States was at “a moment of opportunity, . . .but also a moment of urgency” – because the security environment had improved and the threat of nuclear proliferation was the principal concern. Since 2009, the security environment has dramatically worsened and new existential threats have emerged. This Commission concludes that the United States now faces a highstakes challenge that requires urgent action. Nevertheless, the Commission has not seen the U.S. government demonstrate the urgency and creativity required to meet the challenge. Nothing other than synchronized steps taken by the Executive and Legislative Branches will craft the strategy and build the posture the nation requires. The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now. Photo: An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test at Vandenberg Space Force Base (DoD)