Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

VENEZUELA

The Venezuelan military, according to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, “didn’t fracture in the way that we would hope, but it’s just a matter of time. It’s the case that Maduro may rule for a little while longer, but he’s not going to govern.” He added that structurally, there is no pathway for Maduro to stay in power. It’s time, he said, for him to leave and the United States also wants to see the Cubans and the Russians out of the country.

Washington is working to secure the southern border at the same time as trying to support democracy in South America. Pompeo said today there are 3 million migrants leaving Venezuela and heading into neighboring countries such as Colombia, Chile and Peru. They need humanitarian support including food. Helping is something, Pompeo added, that is in our nature.

CHINA

Chinese students in the United States are sending information on critical American technologies back to China and it a growing concern in Washington. The Chinese are attempting to put their systems in networks around the world and to steal Western intellectual property using advanced methods that only a few years ago were beyond the reach of the Chinese IT technologists. Washington also is concerned about large, high tech American companies going to China and inadvertently helping the communist regime in every major industry including space and weaponry and artificial intelligence.

ISIS POST-CALIPHATE

ISIS has capabilities post-caliphate and the United States needs to act, according to Pompeo. “…even apart from the Sri Lanka incident, it’s absolutely the case that the capacity for ISIS and other radical Islamic terror groups, Sunni terror groups, remains. Their ability to network – we have al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula that still has real capacity to put the United States at risk through its expertise… But this challenge, this challenge of taking down these networks, is something the United States is going to have to continue to stay right on top of.”

The mission set is very clear according to the Secretary. The US will not allow ISIS to get the caliphate back in either western Iraq or eastern Syria. Washington is applying pressure to the networks whether they are in Southeast Asia, in Syria, Iraq, or Afghanistan.

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NORTH KOREA

The United States made a major mistake in earlier Administrations, according to Pompeo. He pointed out that Washington handed North Korea “a bunch of money in exchange for too little, and we’re [Trump Administration] determined not to make that mistake.” Pompeo said Washington is focused on put the right set of incentives in places to achieve its objectives. The end goal is not to overthrow the regime but to achieve denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. He added that it “solely turns on whether Chairman Kim makes the fundamental strategic decision, the one that he has told me half a dozen times he has made, the one he’s told the President a handful of times that he has made.”

The President and Pompeo has repeatedly said that the United States will be patient to ensure good faith negotiations and real conversations. Pompeo said “…our mission set is very clear: State Department’s in the lead trying to negotiate a solution here. We have great partners in South Korea, Japan, who have been great allies and having these conversations, too. We appreciate all of the work that they’ve done. It’s in their backyard.”

IRAN

In a statement released by the State Department on Friday, May 3, he Trump administration stated that it continues to “hold the Iranian regime accountable for activities that threaten the region’s stability and harm the Iranian people.” This includes denying Iran any pathway to a nuclear weapon and continues the maximum pressure campaign.

Starting May 4, assistance to expand Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant beyond the existing reactor unit could be sanctionable, according to the Department Spokesperson. In addition, activities to transfer enriched uranium out of Iran in exchange for natural uranium could be sanctionable. The United States is demanding Iran stop all proliferation-sensitive activities, including uranium enrichment, and the storage for Iran of heavy water it has produced in excess of current limits.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

What Would War with Taiwan be Like

There is a coming conflict with Taiwan. What remains uncertain is the nature of that conflict. A newly released report this week by the Global Taiwan Institute’s (GTI) John Dotson argues that political warfare is a key component of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) attempt to undermine and achieve annexation of Taiwan. The CCP’s goal, he says, is to force the subjugation of the island’s citizens and democratic society and place it under “full CCP political Control.” Chinese directed propaganda and disinformation, elite cooption, political subversion, and coercive military and economic actions all are connected by a prominent link – they are actions intended for psychological effect. They are also methods of political warfare in an ongoing, persistent, and multi-faceted campaign against Taiwan. Information warfare used by Beijing against Taipei manipulates the news to change the attitudes of the population. Is it working? Dotson says that China is successfully exercising influence of “content and editorial coverage in traditional media outlets such as newspapers and television news channels, largely by leveraging influence through local proxy figures—in particular, wealthy businesspersons who have extensive financial equities in China.” He suggests that Beijing employs a “pink model” to push pro-CCP content into social media news feeds, not unlike what China does inside the United States. Using algorithmic targeting, Beijing is able to attack selected demographic targets who are more vulnerable to disinformation. Its goal is to further sow confusion and reduce cognitive resistance to pro-CCP’s narratives. Encouraging a population to believe false information by reducing a group’s opposition to it is a common practice among intelligence agencies and politicians alike. First, a population is provided with several scenarios that are easily accepted as true. In a simple example, one might read that at noon the sun is high in the sky, the clock says 12:00 pm, and many people are eating lunch. These points are easily accepted as true. The human brain at this point becomes more susceptible to accepting new information that may be false as it is programmed to let its guard done. The CCP follows by planting real information among false facts to make it easier to accept and digest. It doesn’t stop at disinformation, Beijing is also leveraging its toolkit in a related field, “legal warfare (法律戰), to promote its interpretation of international law and diplomatic practice. Yet another major category of concern in the CCP’s political warfare against Taiwan is known as “gray zone operations.” These are more closely related to military actions and include activities such as the aerial and maritime encroachment of Taiwan’s territory. The goal is to erode the concept of sovereignty and security. The United States is experiencing “gray zone” operations on our own southern border. In Taiwan, these include China’s overflight of Taiwan’s airspace by military aircraft. These events are increasing in both number and intensity as they grow close to the island itself. Simultaneously, China’s PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy), through its coast guard “law enforcement” operations are challenging Taipei’s outer islands. Dotson points out that the “paramount objective in such operations is the intended psychological effect on Taiwan’s population.” Another related area according to the GTI report is increasing economic coercion. China is attempting to deny Taiwan market access, ban its imports, and limit politically-oriented trade and investment opportunities. The intent is to “punish groups within Taiwan for developments to which Beijing objects, to isolate Taiwan internationally, and to pressure other countries and international companies to conform to Beijing’s preferred policies on Taiwan,” says Dotson. To date, Taiwan has suffered from attempts to ban Taiwan’s export of agricultural products. Beijing has also punished countries who willingly import from Taiwan and have close relations with Taipei. Perhaps one of the most misunderstood areas of China’s political warfare campaign against Taiwan revolves around its “united front work.” This embraces a range of measures that Dotson says include both financial and psychological cooption and include the use of front organizations and political subversion. In Taiwan, China is coopting business and political elites, funding and manipulating local organizations (temple societies) and offering support to fringe political parties that can be used to destabilize Taiwan and spread the CCP’s propaganda. Western militaries analyze the likelihood of kinetic warfare but spend less time on the impacts of political warfare. The free world cannot overlook what is happening in Taiwan and needs to recognize that Chinese political warfare extends across the globe. Beijing may not need to physically capture the island by force if it wins using a clandestine political warfare model of conflict. Then the question becomes, “Who is next?” Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay