India

The United States has inked two new agreements with Indi this week. Secretary of State Pompeo met with Indian Minister of External Affairs Swaraj and Minister of Defense Sitharaman for the first-ever U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. Secretary of Defense Mattis and Secretary Pompeo also met with Prime Minister Modi to discuss how to advance the US-Indian relationship. Of particular significance, was the discussion surrounding how the US and India can ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The trip to India included meetings to examine ways the two countries can elevate security cooperation.

The US and India agreed to “enhance our military cooperation with India” as a major defense partner and the two countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) which will boost our defense collaboration and coordination and the leaders agreed, according to Secretary Pompeo, “on the scope and scale of military cooperation with India as our major defense partner – a unique status that the United States has granted to India.”

In addition to the Agreements talks included pressing global issues such as Afghanistan and North Korea, free trade and investment, and counterterrorism operations. This follows the US Secretary of Commerce recent announcement of Strategic Trade Authorization Tier-1 status for India in August that further facilitate high-technology exports from the United States to India.

Saudi Arabia

The State Department announced: “The United States regards the Saudi-led Coalition’s ‎announcement that it will review their rules of engagement, hold those at fault accountable, and compensate victims following the Joint Incident Assessment Team’s finding that last month’s Sa’ada air strikes lacked justification as an important first step toward full transparency and accountability.” The United States has called on all sides to abide by the Law of Armed Conflict, to mitigate harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure, and thoroughly investigate and ensure accountability for any violations surrounding attacks on the Yemeni people.

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Secretary of State Pompeo and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, Jr. were in Islamabad, Pakistan on September 5 to conduct talks with new Prime Minister Imran Khan, Foreign Minister Qureshi, and Chief of Army Staff Bajwa regarding the U.S.-Pakistan bilateral relations and potential areas for cooperation. They discussed strengthening civilian institutions and the expansion of two-way trade and commercial ties, in addition to deeper counterterrorism efforts. According to the State Department: “In all of his meetings, Secretary Pompeo emphasized the important role Pakistan could play in bringing about a negotiated peace in Afghanistan and conveyed the need for Pakistan to take sustained and decisive measures against terrorists and militants threatening regional peace and stability.”

Asian Energy

An estimated $82 billion annually will be needed in power infrastructure until 2030 to ensure current growth levels, tackle poverty, and address climate change in developing areas in Asia, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The largest developing nation in Asia is China. It already is experiencing rising labor costs, an aging population without adequate social programs, environmental problems and corruption. President Xi Jinping will be challenged to find ways to maintain growth and keep social unrest quiet.

The Asian Development Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, Asia will need $26 trillion of infrastructure investment to reduce poverty and expand growth. According to Matthew Goodman, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS, Japanese banks lead the world in infrastructure financing, but recent Chinese efforts—the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank—are expanding trade connections and raising China’s profile in developing countries. Already cracks are becoming visible in the Initiative as some African countries are beginning to resent foreign workers from China receiving jobs and repatriating funds.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Federal Reserve Report on the Economy

The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s sources. The latest edition has just been released. We present key portions of the summary here. Overall Economic Activity Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite mixed across Districts and spending categories. Several reports mentioned weakness in discretionary spending, as consumers’ price sensitivity remained elevated. Auto spending was buoyed notably in some Districts by improved inventories and dealer incentives, but sales remained sluggish in other Districts. Tourism activity increased modestly, on average, but reports varied widely. Manufacturing activity declined slightly, as only three Districts reported growth in that sector. Contacts reported slight increases in nonfinancial services activity, on average, and bank lending was roughly flat overall. Residential construction increased a little, on average, and home sales strengthened in most Districts. In contrast, nonresidential construction was flat, and commercial real estate leasing fell slightly. The economic outlook among contacts was cautiously optimistic, on balance. Labor Markets Employment rose at a slight pace overall, with nine Districts reporting very slow to modest increases, and the remaining three Districts reporting no changes in employment. Most Districts noted increases in labor supply and in the quality of job applicants. Several Districts reported improved retention of employees, and others pointed to staff reductions at some firms. Despite the improvements in labor supply, many Districts described persistent shortages of qualified applicants for certain positions, including machinists, trades workers, and hospitality workers. Wages grew at a moderate pace in eight Districts, with the remaining four noting only slight to modest wage increases. Multiple Districts said that annual wage growth rates had recently returned to their historical averages. On balance, contacts expected that labor demand and supply would remain relatively stable, with modest further job gains and continued moderation of wage growth back to pre-pandemic levels. Prices Price increases were modest, on average, running at about the same pace as in the last report. Disruptions in the Red Sea and the collapse of Baltimore’s Key Bridge caused some shipping delays but so far did not lead to widespread price increases. Movements in raw materials prices were mixed, but six Districts noted moderate increases in energy prices. Contacts in several Districts reported sharp increases in insurance rates, for both businesses and homeowners. Another frequent comment was that firms’ ability to pass cost increases on to consumers had weakened considerably in recent months, resulting in smaller profit margins. Inflation also caused strain at nonprofit entities, resulting in service reductions in some cases. On balance, contacts expected that inflation would hold steady at a slow pace moving forward. At the same time, contacts in a few Districts—mostly manufacturers—perceived upside risks to near-term inflation in both input prices and output prices. Highlights by Federal Reserve District Boston Business activity expanded at a modest pace in recent weeks, and prices rose slightly. Employment was flat overall, but one retailer reported significant layoffs. Convention and tourism activity grew at a robust pace. Home sales increased on a year-over-year basis, marking a turnaround. The outlook ranged from cautiously optimistic to bullish. New York On balance, regional economic activity remained flat. Labor market conditions were solid and continued to normalize as labor supply and labor demand came into better balance. Consumer spending was unchanged after a weak first quarter. Housing markets strengthened, with the spring selling season picking up beyond the seasonal norm. The pace of selling price increases remained modest. Philadelphia On balance, business activity was flat in the current Beige Book period—after declining slightly last period. Employment edged up, despite staffing and recruitment efforts slowing to a crawl. Wage and price inflation continue to moderate; however, housing affordability continues to be a concern. Overall, the outlook is positive, as firms remained optimistic about expectations for future growth. Cleveland District business activity increased modestly, as did employment. Firms anticipated greater ease filling open positions, including those that have been particularly challenging, because of increased labor availability. Wage pressures continued to normalize, and some contacts reduced starting wages for new roles. Cost and price pressures changed little. Richmond The regional economy grew at slight pace since our previous report. Consumer spending on retail goods was mixed but spending on travel and tourism was up slightly. Fifth District port activity slowed and was impacted by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Employment growth slowed from a moderate to a modest rate in recent weeks, but wages continued to grow moderately. Price growth also remained moderate. Atlanta The Sixth District economy grew modestly. Labor markets continued to stabilize; wage pressures eased. Many nonlabor costs moderated. Retail sales were steady, but consumers remained price conscious. Tourism remained robust. Commercial real estate conditions slowed. Transportation activity was mixed. Manufacturing grew slightly. Loan demand was flat. Energy activity improved. Chicago Economic activity increased slightly. Employment increased modestly; business and consumer spending rose slightly; nonbusiness contacts saw no change in activity; and manufacturing and construction and real estate activity were flat. Prices and wages rose moderately, while financial conditions were stable. Prospects for 2024 farm income were unchanged. St. Louis Economic activity has continued to increase slightly since our previous report. Prices have increased modestly, as contacts are broadly feeling the pressures of increases in both labor and non-labor costs. The outlook was neutral to slightly optimistic, which is generally unchanged from our previous report, but better than one year ago. Minneapolis District economic activity grew slightly. Employment grew some, but labor demand was softer. Wage pressures were present but continued to ease, while price pressures ticked up. Consumer spending was mostly flat, and manufacturing slowed modestly. Commercial and residential construction improved […]