Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

ARCTIC

In response to a press conference question on US policy in the Arctic, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo stated that the “Arctic is a space where there should be freedom of navigation; there should be low tension; there should be security; there should be rule of law; there should be transparency about what’s taking place.”

In recent years the Russian military has become heavily involved in the Arctic region, which represents a potential threat to the United States, its allies, and maritime commerce. In addition to the world’s only nuclear heavy icebreakers, the Russians have developed 10 military air bases above the Arctic Circle. Pompeo added that Washington is working with other democracies to ensure that malevolent powers do not create new or expanded problems in the region which could impact the rest of the world.

In recognition of the Arctic challenges posed by Russia, and to some extend China, the United States is updating its US Coast Guard’s (USCG) aging icebreaker. China operates two heavy icebreakers. While the USCG has two heavy, non-nuclear icebreakers; only one is operational. Both are beyond their expected 30-year service limit. There is a critical need to secure US interests in the region and maritime commerce.

For the first time in 40 years the United States is building a new heavy ice breaker. Congress recently restored $650 million in funding for the ship-building program to begin replacing the Polar Star, the United States’ only working heavy icebreaker. Congress also allotted $20 million in funds to begin purchasing materials for a 2^nd icebreaker, with a goal of building a total of six, three of which are scheduled to be heavy ice breakers. In comparison, Russia operates the world’s only 2 nuclear heavy icebreakers along with 38 non-nuclear heavy icebreakers.

Moscow has 11 additional ships in production making it the dominant force in the region. When complete Russia will be operating 51 icebreakers in the mineral- and oil-rich Arctic environment. This raises additional concerns in the West if Arctic ice continues to melt and opens a year-round passage which military ships from China and eastern Russia could traverse to quickly reach the US East coast and Western Europe.

IRAN

The greatest security challenge in the Middle East is Iran, according to Secretary of State Pompeo. In a press conference in Iceland last week he spoke about how the US and its allies have vanquished ISIS and eliminated the caliphate in Syria. He added that this will allow Washington to withdraw troops but doesn’t end the mission. “We fight ISIS on multiple continents today, but our tactics will change, and they’ll continue to change, and we will adapt just as ISIS adapts. We get the threat from radical Islamic terrorism. President Trump understands this intently. We’re determined to fight them where we find them and to reduce the risk to not only the United States but to our allies,” he said.

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SUDAN

On February 20, 2019, the governments of the United States, Norway and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement concerning the escalating conflict in South Sudan, which is in breach of the December 2017 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and the September 2018 revitalized peace agreement.

The statement notes that recently thousands of South Sudanese have been displaced and fled across the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo to escape the violence. It also calls on all parties involved, the Government of South Sudan, the SPLM-IO, and the National Salvation Front to end the violence and allow unrestricted access to Yei and the surrounding area for the UN Mission in South Sudan, the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism, and other humanitarian groups.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Part 3: AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

We conclude our summary of the urgent recommendation of the Congressional Committee on the nation’s Strategic Posture NON-NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES The Commission recommends: The United States urgently deploy a more resilient space architecture and adopt a strategy that includes both offensive and defensive elements to ensure U.S. access to and operations in space. The United States and its Allies take steps to ensure they are at the cutting edge of emerging technologies – such as big data analytics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) – to avoid strategic surprise and potentially enhance the U.S. strategic posture. The United States prioritize funding and accelerate long-range non-nuclear precision strike programs to meet the operational need and in greater quantities than currently planned. x America’s Strategic Posture The United States develop and field homeland IAMD that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat.4 The Secretary of Defense direct research, development, test and evaluation into advanced IAMD capabilities leveraging all domains, including land, sea, air, and space. These activities should focus on sensor architectures, integrated command and control, interceptors, cruise and hypersonic missile defenses, and area or point defenses. The DOD should urgently pursue deployment of any capabilities that prove feasible. The Secretary of Defense and the Military Departments transfer operations and sustainment responsibility for missile defense to the appropriate Military Departments by 1 October 2024. This will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to focus on research, development, prototyping and testing. ALLIES AND PARTNERS The Commission believes it is in the U.S. national interest to maintain, strengthen, and when appropriate, expand its network of alliances and partnerships. These relationships strengthen American security by deterring aggression regionally, before it can reach the U.S. homeland, while also enabling U.S. economic prosperity through access to international markets. Withdrawing from U.S. alliances and partnerships would directly benefit adversaries, invite aggression that the United States might later have to reverse, and ultimately decrease American, allied, and partner security and economic prosperity. Further, the Commission believes that our defense and the defense of the current international order is strengthened when Allies can directly contribute to the broader strategic posture, and the United States should seek to incorporate those contributions as much as possible. The Executive branch should recognize that any major change to U.S. strategic posture, policies, or capabilities will have great effect on Allies’ perceptions and their deterrence and assurance requirements. As a result, any changes should be predicated on meaningful consultations. RISK REDUCTION The Commission believes it is of paramount importance for the United States to work to reduce strategic risks. This involves activities and programs across the U.S. government, including in nonproliferation and arms control, as well as maintaining strong, viable, and resilient military forces. The Commission recommends that a strategy to address the two-nuclear-peer threat environment be a prerequisite for developing U.S. nuclear arms control limits for the 2027-2035 timeframe. The Commission recommends that once a strategy and its related force requirements are established, the U.S. government determine whether and how nuclear arms control limits continue to enhance U.S. security. The Commission recommends that the United States continue to explore nuclear arms control opportunities and conduct research into potential verification technologies in order to support or enable future negotiations in the U.S. national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types, should the geopolitical environment change. Where formal nuclear arms control agreements are not possible, the Commission recommends pursuing nuclear risk reduction measures to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty and the chances for misperception and miscalculation. The 2009 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States reported that the United States was at “a moment of opportunity, . . .but also a moment of urgency” – because the security environment had improved and the threat of nuclear proliferation was the principal concern. Since 2009, the security environment has dramatically worsened and new existential threats have emerged. This Commission concludes that the United States now faces a highstakes challenge that requires urgent action. Nevertheless, the Commission has not seen the U.S. government demonstrate the urgency and creativity required to meet the challenge. Nothing other than synchronized steps taken by the Executive and Legislative Branches will craft the strategy and build the posture the nation requires. The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now. Photo: An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test at Vandenberg Space Force Base (DoD)