Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

BORDER SECURITY AND TERRORISM

In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, Secretary of State Pompeo discussed the criticality of border security. He pointed out that there are great risks associated with terrorism and the interdiction of drugs at the border. “Border security,” he added, “is an important part of American sovereignty and keeping Americans safe. There is a central role to make sure that we know who is coming in and what is coming in to our country, and President Trump is doing the right thing in making sure we understand what’s moving across that border, and we do so with enough border security so we have confidence and we can do this on behalf of the American people. We have identified over 3,700 people with ties to terrorism trying to cross our southern border this past year.

IRAN

There appears to be a new alliance forming against the Iranian state, including countries such as Israel, the Saudis, Egyptians, Jordanians, and up until recently the Emirates, in an attempt to stop its export of violence and terrorism. According to Secretary Pompeo in an interview, “We have set the conditions in the Middle East where these countries are now working together across multiple fronts. You saw the President’s announcement about our withdrawal from Syria. We’re still going to be able to effectively with those partners counter the threat from ISIS in the region, and we’ll do it without those 2,000 soldiers on the ground. We haven’t changed our policy about continuing to make sure that there is no ISIS resurgence, and we’re just going to do it in a way that is smarter and better. And we can do that because of the alliances that President Trump has built.”

CHINA

The State Department has reworded a warning to all American traveling to China. According to the announcement, Americans could potentially be banned from leaving the country once there. While the exit ban is not currently in existence, China is btaking more aggressive action toward the United States.

RUSSIAN ALLIANCES
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“The Russians’ behavior has not been good,” according to Secretary Pompeo. “But this administration has been very serious at responding to that, whether it was the strike that President – the strikes the President has taken in Syria – those were in Syria but the Russians were all around it, our effort with respect to what the Russians did in Skripal, the sanctions we’ve put on Russian oligarchs who have threatened America and American interests. Those are real responses.”

He added that “We’re trying to find space where we can work with them, trying to find opportunities where the Russians’ and American interests overlap even if our value sets do not so that we can work together against some of these most difficult problems. It’s been tough, and Vladimir Putin has not cooperated, but we’re still trying to find a place to do that.” A Russian-Iranian-Syrian alliance is a threat not only to reginal stability but from a cyber warfare perspective, a threat to the entire world.

SYRIA

The timeline for the US withdrawal from Syria has come under scrutiny lately. The Secretary said that it will be consistent with what we can do to make sure that our soldiers are safe., he pointed out that “…we continue the counter-ISIS campaign,” and we are doing “all that we can to keep the coalition against Iran together. Those are also things that the President has made very clear he was going to do when he visited Iraq now – goodness – a week ago. He made very clear that those were things that were also important. So we will manage those threats to America, but we will do so without a couple thousand folks on the ground in Syria.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

What Would War with Taiwan be Like

There is a coming conflict with Taiwan. What remains uncertain is the nature of that conflict. A newly released report this week by the Global Taiwan Institute’s (GTI) John Dotson argues that political warfare is a key component of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) attempt to undermine and achieve annexation of Taiwan. The CCP’s goal, he says, is to force the subjugation of the island’s citizens and democratic society and place it under “full CCP political Control.” Chinese directed propaganda and disinformation, elite cooption, political subversion, and coercive military and economic actions all are connected by a prominent link – they are actions intended for psychological effect. They are also methods of political warfare in an ongoing, persistent, and multi-faceted campaign against Taiwan. Information warfare used by Beijing against Taipei manipulates the news to change the attitudes of the population. Is it working? Dotson says that China is successfully exercising influence of “content and editorial coverage in traditional media outlets such as newspapers and television news channels, largely by leveraging influence through local proxy figures—in particular, wealthy businesspersons who have extensive financial equities in China.” He suggests that Beijing employs a “pink model” to push pro-CCP content into social media news feeds, not unlike what China does inside the United States. Using algorithmic targeting, Beijing is able to attack selected demographic targets who are more vulnerable to disinformation. Its goal is to further sow confusion and reduce cognitive resistance to pro-CCP’s narratives. Encouraging a population to believe false information by reducing a group’s opposition to it is a common practice among intelligence agencies and politicians alike. First, a population is provided with several scenarios that are easily accepted as true. In a simple example, one might read that at noon the sun is high in the sky, the clock says 12:00 pm, and many people are eating lunch. These points are easily accepted as true. The human brain at this point becomes more susceptible to accepting new information that may be false as it is programmed to let its guard done. The CCP follows by planting real information among false facts to make it easier to accept and digest. It doesn’t stop at disinformation, Beijing is also leveraging its toolkit in a related field, “legal warfare (法律戰), to promote its interpretation of international law and diplomatic practice. Yet another major category of concern in the CCP’s political warfare against Taiwan is known as “gray zone operations.” These are more closely related to military actions and include activities such as the aerial and maritime encroachment of Taiwan’s territory. The goal is to erode the concept of sovereignty and security. The United States is experiencing “gray zone” operations on our own southern border. In Taiwan, these include China’s overflight of Taiwan’s airspace by military aircraft. These events are increasing in both number and intensity as they grow close to the island itself. Simultaneously, China’s PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy), through its coast guard “law enforcement” operations are challenging Taipei’s outer islands. Dotson points out that the “paramount objective in such operations is the intended psychological effect on Taiwan’s population.” Another related area according to the GTI report is increasing economic coercion. China is attempting to deny Taiwan market access, ban its imports, and limit politically-oriented trade and investment opportunities. The intent is to “punish groups within Taiwan for developments to which Beijing objects, to isolate Taiwan internationally, and to pressure other countries and international companies to conform to Beijing’s preferred policies on Taiwan,” says Dotson. To date, Taiwan has suffered from attempts to ban Taiwan’s export of agricultural products. Beijing has also punished countries who willingly import from Taiwan and have close relations with Taipei. Perhaps one of the most misunderstood areas of China’s political warfare campaign against Taiwan revolves around its “united front work.” This embraces a range of measures that Dotson says include both financial and psychological cooption and include the use of front organizations and political subversion. In Taiwan, China is coopting business and political elites, funding and manipulating local organizations (temple societies) and offering support to fringe political parties that can be used to destabilize Taiwan and spread the CCP’s propaganda. Western militaries analyze the likelihood of kinetic warfare but spend less time on the impacts of political warfare. The free world cannot overlook what is happening in Taiwan and needs to recognize that Chinese political warfare extends across the globe. Beijing may not need to physically capture the island by force if it wins using a clandestine political warfare model of conflict. Then the question becomes, “Who is next?” Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay