Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

OCEANS 2018

During the “Our Ocean Conference 2018” in Bali, Indonesia, the United States announced 15 commitments to strengthen sustainable management of marine resources; prevent plastic and other debris from entering the ocean; support research and observation of ocean ecosystems; and foster partnerships promoting maritime security and a sustainable blue economy.

The State Department noted that American efforts include, among other projects: two new five-year programs in Madagascar to improve marine and coastal resources; a new five-year regional activity in Central American Regional Coastal Biodiversity Project; a three-year collaboration between the U.S. AID and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reduce threats to biodiversity in the Caribbean; and also $5 million from NOAA for ocean observing technology to support the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) 2020 Project, an international effort to improve our understanding of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ocean’s role in weather and climate.

IRANIAN HIT SQUADS

In a media interview this week Secretary of State Pompeo discussed the threat from Iranian hit squads plotting to commit assassinations in Denmark, France and Albania. Iran, long recognized as the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, sent Iranian intelligence operatives into Europe for the third effort in recent times.

Pompeo said that sanctions which the previous administration had relieved against Iran are “snapping back, coming back into effect, and it’s having a real impact on the Iranian leadership. This is important…” in our efforts to get the Iranians to change their behavior. IT will take time and patience.

The Secretary added that: “We are hopeful that [Foreign Minister] Zarif’s boss, the ayatollah, the man who actually makes all the decisions – it’s not Mr. Zarif, it’s the ayatollah – that the ayatollah will see the error of his ways and will come to understand that it’s in Iran’s best interest to change the nature of the activities that Iran is conducting all around the world and become a normal nation.” President Trump has stated that once Iran is in line with other normal nation-states we will welcome the country back into the family of nations.

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IRAN SANCTIONS

President Trump withdrew the United States from the fatally flawed nuclear deal with Iran earlier this year. The new campaign goal, using economic sanctions going into effect on November 5, aims to fundamentally alter Iran’s behavior through deprivation of the revenue it uses to export terrorism. This is Round 19 of economic sanctions and adds over 700 names to the list of blocked entities.

US Secretary of State Pompeo announced that “These sanctions hit at the core areas of Iran’s economy.” He added that to maximize the impact on Iran, Washington is working with other countries by cutting Iranian exports of oil as much as possible. He pointed out that the Administration may issue temporary allotments to eight jurisdictions vs. the 20 allotted during the Obama Administration, multiple times between 2012 and 2015.

Secretary Pompeo said the eight jurisdictions receiving the temporary allotments have aided the US efforts on other significant fronts. At this time Iran’s crude oil exports already are reduced by one million barrels. With the imposition of new sanctions on November 5, Secretary Pompeo explained, “100% of the revenue that Iran receives from the sale of crude oil will be held in foreign accounts and can be used by Iran only for humanitarian trade or bilateral trade in non-sanctioned goods and services.”

“This massive reduction since May of last year is three to five times more than what many analysts were projecting when President Trump announced our withdrawal from the deal back in May. We exceeded our expectations for one simple reason: Maximum pressure means maximum pressure,” according to the Secretary of State. The United States is making exceptions for humanitarian assistance to the people of Iran, including food,agriculture commodities, medicine, and medical devices.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Part 3: AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

We conclude our summary of the urgent recommendation of the Congressional Committee on the nation’s Strategic Posture NON-NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES The Commission recommends: The United States urgently deploy a more resilient space architecture and adopt a strategy that includes both offensive and defensive elements to ensure U.S. access to and operations in space. The United States and its Allies take steps to ensure they are at the cutting edge of emerging technologies – such as big data analytics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) – to avoid strategic surprise and potentially enhance the U.S. strategic posture. The United States prioritize funding and accelerate long-range non-nuclear precision strike programs to meet the operational need and in greater quantities than currently planned. x America’s Strategic Posture The United States develop and field homeland IAMD that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat.4 The Secretary of Defense direct research, development, test and evaluation into advanced IAMD capabilities leveraging all domains, including land, sea, air, and space. These activities should focus on sensor architectures, integrated command and control, interceptors, cruise and hypersonic missile defenses, and area or point defenses. The DOD should urgently pursue deployment of any capabilities that prove feasible. The Secretary of Defense and the Military Departments transfer operations and sustainment responsibility for missile defense to the appropriate Military Departments by 1 October 2024. This will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to focus on research, development, prototyping and testing. ALLIES AND PARTNERS The Commission believes it is in the U.S. national interest to maintain, strengthen, and when appropriate, expand its network of alliances and partnerships. These relationships strengthen American security by deterring aggression regionally, before it can reach the U.S. homeland, while also enabling U.S. economic prosperity through access to international markets. Withdrawing from U.S. alliances and partnerships would directly benefit adversaries, invite aggression that the United States might later have to reverse, and ultimately decrease American, allied, and partner security and economic prosperity. Further, the Commission believes that our defense and the defense of the current international order is strengthened when Allies can directly contribute to the broader strategic posture, and the United States should seek to incorporate those contributions as much as possible. The Executive branch should recognize that any major change to U.S. strategic posture, policies, or capabilities will have great effect on Allies’ perceptions and their deterrence and assurance requirements. As a result, any changes should be predicated on meaningful consultations. RISK REDUCTION The Commission believes it is of paramount importance for the United States to work to reduce strategic risks. This involves activities and programs across the U.S. government, including in nonproliferation and arms control, as well as maintaining strong, viable, and resilient military forces. The Commission recommends that a strategy to address the two-nuclear-peer threat environment be a prerequisite for developing U.S. nuclear arms control limits for the 2027-2035 timeframe. The Commission recommends that once a strategy and its related force requirements are established, the U.S. government determine whether and how nuclear arms control limits continue to enhance U.S. security. The Commission recommends that the United States continue to explore nuclear arms control opportunities and conduct research into potential verification technologies in order to support or enable future negotiations in the U.S. national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types, should the geopolitical environment change. Where formal nuclear arms control agreements are not possible, the Commission recommends pursuing nuclear risk reduction measures to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty and the chances for misperception and miscalculation. The 2009 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States reported that the United States was at “a moment of opportunity, . . .but also a moment of urgency” – because the security environment had improved and the threat of nuclear proliferation was the principal concern. Since 2009, the security environment has dramatically worsened and new existential threats have emerged. This Commission concludes that the United States now faces a highstakes challenge that requires urgent action. Nevertheless, the Commission has not seen the U.S. government demonstrate the urgency and creativity required to meet the challenge. Nothing other than synchronized steps taken by the Executive and Legislative Branches will craft the strategy and build the posture the nation requires. The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now. Photo: An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test at Vandenberg Space Force Base (DoD)