Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

In a recent interview Secretary of State Michael Pompeo predicted that TikTok will no longer be providing private information on American citizens to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He added that he hopes the CCP “will conclude that you can’t keep stealing American property, can’t keep destroying American jobs.” Previous Administrations have failed to tackle the China problem and hold the CCP and China accountable for its actions, he said. At this point, he added, China has “shown no evidence of the central understanding that if you want to be a world power, if you want to participate on the global stage, you can’t engage in the kind of predatory economic activities that the Chinese Communist Party has been in engaged in for far too long, and we’re not going to let it happen on our watch.” The US Government has not gone after Chinese companies because they were successful but, instead, took action if they were CCP entities in order to protect the American people.

Pompeo added that “ If the Trump administration has four more years, the Chinese Communist Party should begin to behave like a normal nation with respect to their economic activity around the world. They should allow the United States to invest in China on the same terms that Chinese companies can invest in the United States. They should conduct trade relationships in a way that are fair and reciprocal. They should put tariffs on that are balanced and even. They shouldn’t steal our stuff, jobs, from places like my home in Kansas, where manufacturers invent things, create things, patent things, and then the Chinese Communist Party just rips them off and then turns around and sells them back to us in a subsidized way.

IRAN

The United States is initiating the restoration of virtually all UN sanctions on Iran lifted under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, according to Pompeo. He said this process will lead to those sanctions coming back into effect 30 days from today and added that “Our message is very, very simple: the United States will never allow the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism to freely buy and sell planes, tanks, missiles, and other kinds of conventional weapons. These UN sanctions will continue the arms embargo.”

Iran currently is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect sites suspected of undeclared nuclear activity, that were formerly part of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. After criticizing European nations for their inaction, he praised the Gulf Cooperation Council nations for showing “courage and unity in warning about the danger from Iran.” Pompeo said that two weeks ago, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates sent a letter to the Security Council urging a renewal of the arms embargo before it expired in October. Iran is a nation that can’t be trusted, he pointed out, and one that should not be sold arms.

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IRAQ

The State Department Spokesperson called out Iraq saying the United State is “outraged by the targeted assassinations of civil society activists and attacks on protesters in Basrah and Baghdad. It is unconscionable that the perpetrators of these horrible acts continue to act with impunity. Since October of last year, peaceful demonstrators have taken to the streets to urge government reform. They have been met with threats and brutal violence. Many have been gunned down.” The US strongly supports the right of Iraqis to assemble peacefully and express themselves. The Trump Administration has urged the Government of Iraq to take immediate steps to hold accountable the militias, thugs, and criminal gangs attacking Iraqis exercising their right to peaceful protest.

LEBANON

Due to the devastating explosion in Beirut on August 4, the US Government has donated over $18 million in emergency relief assistance. This has been between the U.S. CENTCOM, which responded immediately with assistance packages that went to the Lebanese army, and then subsequent USAID support. US Acting Administrator Barsa announced that when he was in Beirut a couple days ago the US ensured that the aid is going to America’s NGO partners, not government officials in Lebanon. The explosion has greatly impacted the people on a wide scale, with over 6,000 injured. Estimates to date indicate there over 300,000 in the country who have been left homeless in the aftermath of the explosion.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russian-Belarus Preparations for an Attack on the West

While Russia is celebrating May Day at home this week, it is also growing closer to breaching the threshold triggering a nuclear event in Western Europe. Military analysts in Washington consider the recent deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus a political sign designed to unnerve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) easternmost flank. Alexander Taranov, of the Jamestown Foundation calls it “practical preparation for nuclear escalation.” Last week the Kremlin publicly repeated its threat of nuclear war against the West. It immediately followed the US Congress’ vote to provide $61 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. Up for debate is whether Russia’s storage of nuclear warheads in Belarus is short-term preparation for their operational use. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly declared that increasing aid to Ukraine increases the threat of a direct military clash. From Moscow’s perspective, he points out, Ukraine is backed by three nuclear states, including the US, UK, and France. He uses it to justify the Kremlin’s moves in Belarus as Russia considers the situation a serious strategic risk. The nuclear environment in Europe is moving beyond simple rhetoric this spring. Russian-Belarus preparations for an attack on the West include war gaming a simulated nuclear event in Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The operating assumption for the games is that the West is “morally too weak to respond with retaliatory strikes,” according to Taranov. The representative for national defense of the Belarusian opposition-in-exile’s United Transitional Cabinet and former commander of the Belarusian 38th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade (Brest), Valery Sahashchyk, says that the militaries are war-gaming and preparing for an attack on Lithuania. Last week the publication RIA Novosti suggested that the Kremlin may take matters into its own hands and that Russia is fighting a “long war” against the collective West and Ukraine. Just over a month ago, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) confirmed the establishment of a nuclear warhead storage facility near Asipovichy, Belarus, where, according to Taranov, the 1405th Artillery Ammunition Base is located. The 465th Missile Brigade is almost co-located and supplied with Russian Iskander-M operational-tactical missile (RMB) systems that are also known as TNW carriers. Pre-deploying tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) raises the potential that Russia could choose to use them should the war in Ukraine go badly this summer. Western powers are divided on how to view the Russian nuclear moves. Some military planners are arguing that the West needs to be prepared, despite the possibility that Putin is simply posturing and not preparing for war. Other Western commentators suggest it is only posturing since prior to the recent nuclear deployment in Belarus, Russia already had the capability to launch a strike in Eastern Europe using its modernized nuclear weapons storage facilities in Kaliningrad. Taranov points out that the Belarusian nuclear site is only modernized with added perimeter security and an access point and that “No underground bunker-type fortifications, designed for the long-term storage of TNWs… were built on the Belarusian base’s territory. Instead, the nuclear warheads were placed in one of the arsenals of the ammunition base, which also stores operational-tactical missiles for the Iskander-M system.” He says this co-location with their launch vehicles is an indication that a repair and maintenance base has been organized there to support and prepare the TNWs for operational use. Personnel on the site are likely tasked with fitting the nuclear warheads on the missiles. What makes this more concerning is that during a peacetime environment, the standard Russian practice is to store TNWs in a special bunker-type fortified facility while RMBs typically are located off base. Military procedures in the past called for moving TNWs off base to the TNW carrier and delivery vehicle site only after receiving an order or special command from: 1) the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, 2) the Minister of Defense, and 3) the Chief of the Russian General staff. Co-positioning marks a change in standard operating procedures that indicates the weapons are, essentially, in field-ready conditions. This reduces the time to place the nuclear warheads on the missiles. This “indicates preparation for operational use,” according to Taranov. There are additional signs that Putin is prepping for an escalation in the Ukrainian conflict. The Polish government says Russian Aerospace Forces are using Belarusian-based Kh-55 nuclear-capable cruise missiles with imitators of nuclear warheads against targets in Poland and Ukraine. This points to Russia’s practicing for at minimum of a tactical nuclear strike. The summer months may become very active in Europe if Putin sees it as an opportune time to act while the US is in the middle of a presidential election. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Photo: RS-24 Yars (SS-27 Mod 2) ICBM. Photo: Wikimedia Commons / Vitaly V. Kuzmin