The once-successful Intermediate nuclear Forces Treaty, (INF) is now obsolete, a clear result of Russia’s extensive violation of its provisions.
In 1987, President Ronald Reagan and USSR leader Mikhail Gorbachev agreed that they would ban all land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The ban applied to missiles with nuclear or conventional warheads.
However, in 2013, the United States noted concern about Russia’s deployment of Iskander intermediate range nuclear missiles, which violate the INF.
The United States officially charged Russia with violating the INF Treaty in late July 2014, when the State Department released the 2014 edition of its report “Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments” (the Compliance Report). President Obama sent a letter to President Putin notifying him of the finding in the Compliance Report and suggesting that the two countries meet to discuss steps that Russia could take to come back into compliance with the Treaty
The Trump Administration conducted an extensive review of the INF Treaty during 2017 to examine the potential danger from Moscow’s violation. The result was that on December 8, 2017, the 30th anniversary of the treaty being signed, the White House announced that the United States would commence an integrated response that included diplomatic, military, and economic measures.
It’s not just that the weapons Russia has deployed violate the treaty. It’s also where they have been deployed, the Kaliningrad region its exclave on the Baltic Sea. The White House describes the deployment as destabilizing, both in its violation of the INF and in the imminent danger Moscow’s buildup of forces in that region represents.
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CNN reports that “New satellite imagery shared exclusively with CNN shows Russia appearing to upgrade four of its military installations in Kaliningrad, Russia’s strategic outpost on NATO’s doorstep. Earlier this year, aerial images came to light that suggested the Russians had significantly modernized a nuclear weapons storage bunker in Kaliningrad. Now, satellite imagery and analysis from ImageSat International, a commercial satellite firm, appear to confirm that a major modernization is underway in at least four locations throughout the region. Those upgrades include fresh work at what analysts have identified as the Kaliningrad nuclear weapons storage site. Images captured between July 19 and October 1 indicate work on an exposed bunker under renovation that appears to conceal activity underneath.”
Russia is not the only cause for the White House’s concern. The arms pact never included China, now a military superpower. A Spacewar report quoted Senator Lindsey Graham’ expressing the concern that “’The Russians have been cheating; the Chinese are building up their missiles… and we need to counter it.’ Another senior Republican, Senator Bob Corker, agreed that ‘there’s no question that for years Russia has been violating” the accord. He noted on CNN that some defense specialists say that ‘because China is not part of this (the INF) they’re developing systems that will move beyond where we are.’”
But there’s more to it than even an extremely serious and obvious violation of a nuclear arms pact. Moscow deployed these missiles when there was absolutely no defensive reason to do so. European nations had slashed their military forces to the bone, and the United States, during the Obama Administration, had also severely cut defense spending. The obvious analysis is, since there were no defensive reasons to deploy the missiles, and Russia’s economy can’t afford to waste funds on simply symbolic gestures, Putin’s motives can only be seen as offensive.
As Putin continues his extraordinary arms buildup, including the violation of long-standing nuclear accords, despite his nation’s weak economy, the realization that he intends to use his forces to intimidate or even attack European nations becomes more evident. Absent an appropriately strong response from the U.S. and NATO, he will continue on this highly dangerous path.
Photo: Iskander missile (Missile Defense Advocacy Organization)