Chinese Nukes Threaten U.S.

Four years ago, the US Army told Congress that to address emerging threats to our national security it needed to evolve new advanced methods and weaponry that could outpace the speed of any persistent great power competitor. The Pentagon also announced it needed the ability to operate in a multi-domain [air, land, water, space, cyber, information] environment. The Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF) concept, the Army decided in 2017, would require complete integration across the joint forces and entail new operational concepts, technologies, weapons, and units to win a war with China. Pentagon estimates are that China will be on par with the US militarily by 2040 – the latest. It appears that China will meet its projected deadline sooner than expected. Next month the US Army is activating its first overseas MDTF in Europe. Time may not be on the United States’ side when it comes to a potential war in the Indo-Pacific region if Beijing continues to intensify its efforts.

A US Army White paper, released in an unclassified version earlier this spring reported that “By 2040, China and Russia will have weaponized all instruments of national power to undermine the collective wills of the United States, Allies and partners, while simultaneously cultivating their own security partnerships. This will lead to an unstructured international environment where the line between conflict and peace is blurred,” the white paper added. “As China and Russia continue to modernize their militaries, the Joint Force will find it increasingly difficult to deter their illicit and aggressive actions.”

Beijing is not sitting idle while Washington develops new MDTF’s or other military advances to counter China’s long-term, global ambitions. Satellite imagery recently released indicates that China is building not one, but a network of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo fields in the western regions of the country. Each site is located beyond the reach of conventional missile capabilities. A foreign response would encompass a high cost to the US or any nation countering Chinese aggression. The first site discovered in February indicates there are well over 100 silos under construction near Yuman, in Gansu province. Each individual silo is spaced less than two miles apart from the next. The dome-covered field is a large and impressive site with support facilities built around it.

The more recent discovery by the American Federation of Scientists (FAS) identified a second location near Hami city in northwest China, which is about 240 miles from the Yuman ICBM location. Estimates are that silo work there began in March. “Since then, however, the telltale dome-like shelters, that analysts have identified as being associated with the building of silos, have appeared over at least 14 individual sites at Hami, with preparations noted at 19 others,” according to Thomas Newdick, writing in The Drive. In total over 250 new silos have been identified as completed or under construction. China also operates 100 road mobile ICBM launch units. The FAS estimates that China has 350 nuclear warheads. The US military estimates that the actual number of operational units is closer to the low 200’s. If China fills the new silos with ICBM’s, the potential is for a total over 515 operational warheads under the command of the Chinese government. It could represent the greatest threat ever faced by the United States.

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The Chinese site plan may require Washington to play an ICBM-enhanced version of the “Whack-A-Mole” game in response to an attack if the silos are partially filled with operational missiles. That type of contest creates a targeting nightmare for any adversary. The United States must develop plans now to address all contingencies and not simply hope that it chooses the correct target in response to an attack on the US or one of its allies. The MDFT concept for future warfare is a move in the right direction but more needs to be done to hold China accountable. Washington cannot overlook that President Xi Jinping intends his legacy to be to that he restored China to global greatness while forcing the West to cower to his demands. A Chinese nuclear first strike capability, and the ability to survive it, is a prestigious position for Xi to occupy when it comes to hard power prowess.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: China Defence Ministry

Quick Analysis

Part 3: AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

We conclude our summary of the urgent recommendation of the Congressional Committee on the nation’s Strategic Posture NON-NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES The Commission recommends: The United States urgently deploy a more resilient space architecture and adopt a strategy that includes both offensive and defensive elements to ensure U.S. access to and operations in space. The United States and its Allies take steps to ensure they are at the cutting edge of emerging technologies – such as big data analytics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) – to avoid strategic surprise and potentially enhance the U.S. strategic posture. The United States prioritize funding and accelerate long-range non-nuclear precision strike programs to meet the operational need and in greater quantities than currently planned. x America’s Strategic Posture The United States develop and field homeland IAMD that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat.4 The Secretary of Defense direct research, development, test and evaluation into advanced IAMD capabilities leveraging all domains, including land, sea, air, and space. These activities should focus on sensor architectures, integrated command and control, interceptors, cruise and hypersonic missile defenses, and area or point defenses. The DOD should urgently pursue deployment of any capabilities that prove feasible. The Secretary of Defense and the Military Departments transfer operations and sustainment responsibility for missile defense to the appropriate Military Departments by 1 October 2024. This will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to focus on research, development, prototyping and testing. ALLIES AND PARTNERS The Commission believes it is in the U.S. national interest to maintain, strengthen, and when appropriate, expand its network of alliances and partnerships. These relationships strengthen American security by deterring aggression regionally, before it can reach the U.S. homeland, while also enabling U.S. economic prosperity through access to international markets. Withdrawing from U.S. alliances and partnerships would directly benefit adversaries, invite aggression that the United States might later have to reverse, and ultimately decrease American, allied, and partner security and economic prosperity. Further, the Commission believes that our defense and the defense of the current international order is strengthened when Allies can directly contribute to the broader strategic posture, and the United States should seek to incorporate those contributions as much as possible. The Executive branch should recognize that any major change to U.S. strategic posture, policies, or capabilities will have great effect on Allies’ perceptions and their deterrence and assurance requirements. As a result, any changes should be predicated on meaningful consultations. RISK REDUCTION The Commission believes it is of paramount importance for the United States to work to reduce strategic risks. This involves activities and programs across the U.S. government, including in nonproliferation and arms control, as well as maintaining strong, viable, and resilient military forces. The Commission recommends that a strategy to address the two-nuclear-peer threat environment be a prerequisite for developing U.S. nuclear arms control limits for the 2027-2035 timeframe. The Commission recommends that once a strategy and its related force requirements are established, the U.S. government determine whether and how nuclear arms control limits continue to enhance U.S. security. The Commission recommends that the United States continue to explore nuclear arms control opportunities and conduct research into potential verification technologies in order to support or enable future negotiations in the U.S. national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types, should the geopolitical environment change. Where formal nuclear arms control agreements are not possible, the Commission recommends pursuing nuclear risk reduction measures to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty and the chances for misperception and miscalculation. The 2009 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States reported that the United States was at “a moment of opportunity, . . .but also a moment of urgency” – because the security environment had improved and the threat of nuclear proliferation was the principal concern. Since 2009, the security environment has dramatically worsened and new existential threats have emerged. This Commission concludes that the United States now faces a highstakes challenge that requires urgent action. Nevertheless, the Commission has not seen the U.S. government demonstrate the urgency and creativity required to meet the challenge. Nothing other than synchronized steps taken by the Executive and Legislative Branches will craft the strategy and build the posture the nation requires. The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now. Photo: An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test at Vandenberg Space Force Base (DoD)