China’s Fragile Economy – USA Gov Policy

Is the Chinese economy more fragile than we are led to believe by the Biden Administration? In 2022 President Xi Jinping seems intent on China’s becoming more state centered and less market oriented under its current economic plan. A revised trade strategy has involved the United States working with other major economies to negotiate new rules for dealing with China. However, the most advanced effort to date is not centered in Washington but is being worked on in the European Union, including through the Trade and Technology Council. The Biden Administration has not enforced the previous administration’s China trade deal.

Since its signing, the world has experienced the associated dislocations of the Covid pandemic, including Chinese factories behind schedules and shipping constraints. Chinese contract law often points to the “spirit of mutual respect” for enforcement of an agreement vs. unchanging written facts, such as delivery dates and amounts of goods sold, found in a Western style agreement. For China, the Trump trade deal met with an “unforeseeable event outside the control of the parties…” that delayed “a party from timely complying with its obligations.” Therefore, no agreement was broken.

On January 15, 2020, China and the United States signed “Phase 1” of President Trump’s trade bill in which China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion in American exports by the end of 2021. The deal failed. The media has downplayed China’s broken promise and has instead focused more on the sensationalism of the Olympic scandals. The trade agreement’s only real accomplishment was to stem the spiraling trade wars between the two nations. It failed to offset uncertainty over restarting US investment in American exports. According to a trade tracker used by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), “Ultimately, China bought only 57 percent of the US exports it committed to purchase over 2020–21. US exports of covered goods and services to China over the two years were $288.8 billion.” In 2020–21, PIIE said China fell $13.6 billion short of reaching even the baseline level of purchases, although the Biden Administration complained that China was holding back sales, including aircraft, engines, and parts. One area of US trade that did expand dramatically was the exports of American made medical supplies used to treat Covid. Under the Trump trade deal, US farm exports did get back to 2017 levels and ultimately reached 83 percent of the 2020–21 commitment.

My mental and psychological strength weekend and felt more like depressed and stressed to which I link levitra tablet consulted my doctor for an immediate effect. Yes, exercising comes up with super viagra uk many benefits. The increase or decrease in the dose of 100mg orally and in many cases of males who have consumed this medicine, found that this drug provides the excellent levitra sale find out these guys results at the very low price. Diet Injuries Wear And Tear Stress Heredity Lack Of exercise Muscle loss Bone Diseases Tumor and cancer Treatment for joint pain When exploring treatments for joint repairs for degenerative and injury viagra purchase uk djpaulkom.tv conditions of your elbow, back, hips, knees and much more.

The big question is whether the United States can coerce China to comply with the Trump trade agreement. A Biden Administration official earlier this week called it a “living agreement,” a term most likely well-received in Beijing and much less so by the US business community. Chad Bown of PIIE noted that the United States did not publish clear monthly data on services exports, making Beijing’s progress difficult to evaluate. The Biden Administration inherited a deal requiring a strong political leader with the will power to enforce the mechanism to make it work. To date, the Biden Administration has shown little leadership in this area and is instead continues “recalibrating” its effort. Bloomberg Business recently quoted Kelly Ann Shaw, who served as deputy assistant to the president for international economic affairs in the Trump Administration as saying “To make progress on structural issues, the administration needs to be prepared to offer China something it wants—or threaten something it doesn’t.” For a coercion, or a threat, to make it must be believed. If China looks westward toward President Biden’s weak handling of the crisis in Ukraine, Beijing may not see a need to change its behavior. When an unnamed Biden trade official attempted to call his counterpart in Beijing, the Chinese official simply refused to take the call. A Biden trade official called it “unfair.” That about sums up the Chinese response to the US “recalibration.”

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept., and specialized in China.

Illustration: Shanghai skyline (Pixabay)

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay