China Plans for Greater Aggressiveness

This week, from October 26-29^th, China held its “Fifth Plenum of the 19^th Communist Party of China Central Committee.” While the name of the meeting may sound dull, what it reveals about the country’s pivot to national security, technological independence and reforming global trade and governance is not….

The CCP released its new five-year plan covering the years 2021-2025 and what it deliberately hides, as well as what it reveals, of the communist giant’s plans should cause concern to the Western free world. China’s leadership is calling for an increasingly aggressive foreign policy agenda and an implicit domestic growth target of 5% annually. The communique released at the end of the four-day meeting states that China’s the core strategy going forward is one of “dual circulation.” In reality, however, this is an going, long-term, economic growth paradigm to guide how China relates economically to the world. Ostensibly the current version of the document is labeled as a new program to cut dependence on overseas markets, brought on by challenges from the Trump Administration’s holding Beijing accountable for its economic, military, and political actions. Its roots, however, go back over a decade.

The current document expects China to face a challenging external environment in the coming years which it characterized as filled with geopolitical flashpoints, heightened distrust among capitals in the post-Cold War era, trouble in the US-China relationship, and investment trade-offs between efficiency and resiliency for large Chinese companies. Beijing hopes economically to achieve a 70% self-sufficiency rate by using credit subsidies, intellectual property acquisitions and public sector enterprises by 2025. By 2049 it intends to dominate these areas globally.

An analysis of the plan indicates that China is shifting its strategy further away from one of state support for its failing businesses to protection for its next wave of industries. China says it is attempting to rebalance the global supply chain during what it expects to be a “protracted conflict” in a “complex international environment.” The industries China is choosing to support indicates that the world not only is going to face a trade war with the communist giant but also one that is technology-based. The plan is designed to move China’s 1.4 billion population away from a labor-based economy and put it in direct competition with India and the United States. The accelerated domestic orientation is intended to help China ride through rough global economic shocks.

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As China becomes more assertive on the external front it expects to “reshape” global governance and trade as it expects the United States to become weaker and have less influence in the world. To reinforce this movement the plan calls for a greater emphasis on its military build-up and an expansion of its civilian-military fusion program. The CCP document also claims “the relative strength of global power has shifted” in a reference to conflicts in the US-China relationship. It is interesting to note that the timeframe China says this refers to is “the last 100 years.” This is important in that China still operates as if it is recovering from the Unequal Treaties period in the last 19^th and early 20^th centuries. The CCP is calli ng for a more aggressive foreign policy and increased military competition and influence.

This moves Deng’s Xiaoping’s famous 1987 statement about reaching the level of a “moderately developed country” by 2050 back to 2035. New strategies that supplement those already in place reinforce that the Chinese leadership intends an aggressive agenda moving forward, one slowed only by the Trump Administration. The United States can expect to see increased intellectual property theft and other illiberal trade policies to escalate in the coming years. The CCP and President Xi Jinping do not show an indication of living within the international norms-based system which has brought the world relative peace a stability. It is, perhaps, more important than ever that the United States and the Western world hold China accountable for its trade infractions, human rights abuses, and militarily aggressive moves at it modernizes its economy. Only time will tell if China has the ability to become a responsible player on the world stage.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay