China on Top of the World – USA Gov Policy

The American military is the finest fighting force ever assembled in world history. Yet that fact alone may not be sufficient to contain China’s global ambitions in the coming decade. If left unchecked by the world’s major powers, Beijing has the potential to outpace every other nation in acquiring, incorporating, and employing advanced offensive military technologies in its armed forces, in addition to its devious, long-term political strategies across the globe. Distinct from international norms, Beijing doesn’t self-constrain its behavior according to accepted standards such as “rule by law.” CCP actions go well beyond its decades-long mantra of the “ends justify the means” as it is apparent the means have become the end in themselves for President Xi Jinping and the senior communist leadership in Beijing. The Arctic region may be emerging as the latest example of a domain for the strategic great power rivalry between the US and China.

The reality the free world must recognize is that 21^st century China’s strategic vision is hegemonic and without respite even during the height of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Beijing continues aggressively expanding its offensive forces, upgrading the level of its military’s technological sophistication, and pushing the PLA out further from its shores. It uses various types of political, economic, and military power to cut out a space for itself around the world. China’s economic engagement in the Arctic, according to some political analysts, simply is a precursor to military strategic ambitions in the area similar to those it pursued in the South China Sea.

Although the country is over 900 miles from the Arctic Circle, Beijing has labeled itself a “near Arctic” nation and pursued representation on the Arctic Council, the high-level intergovernmental body made up of the eight Arctic nations with sovereignty over lands in the region. US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo rejected the terminology saying there are Arctic and non-Arctic states, but no third category exists. It has not stopped China from attempting to export its power and influence beyond East Asia.

Advances in underseas mining technology make the riches of the northern waters accessible and extremely lucrative. Combined with the potential for a shorter Northern Shipping Route, it illuminates some of the reasons behind why Beijing is acting so aggressively in the region.

According to the Arctic Institute: “A preemptive or complete denial of China in the Arctic may be desirable but not feasible.” In response to Chinese adventurism there, the United States this week announced it is providing $12.1 million in an economic aid package to Greenland, a true Arctic nation with sovereign land in the region. The purpose of the aid is to strengthen American ties to the area and become the partner of choice.

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The funds, along with Washington’s renewed interest in increasing its military presence above the Arctic Circle, is intended to slow China’s global ambitions. Earlier this week a senior State department official said in response to China’s challenge in the region that “…across the globe… China’s soft-power tools often have a soft edge when deployed by the PRC. It has weaponized its state capitalism in an effort to secure control of critical infrastructure such as ports and telecommunications networks. It’s demonstrated a willingness to use coercion and influence operations and other methods to get what it wants, including in the Arctic.”

It is romantic self-delusion when the west fails to deal effectively with communist China. Beijing wiggled its way into the Arctic using soft-power and promises of assistance with infrastructure development to increase tourism in the region. Global leaders need to recognize the PLA, under the direct command of the CCP elite, is following a plan which defines China’s strategic mission as a global one. The Arctic is one chapter in it.

China asserts its influence using hard and soft power in the Arctic, East Asia, Africa, Latin America…. and it is a quickly rising, powerful, regional hegemon over the South and East China Seas. The country is led by Xi Jinping, an authoritarian leader as influential as Mao or Deng Xiaoping. Secretary Pompeo says the greatest threat to the US is from Xi Jinping and that the US needs to make sure it has the ability to protect itself and oppose China’s bullying. American Arctic policy in 2020 is changing to meet that strategic goal.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: Infantrymen assigned to an armored regiment under the PLA Xinjiang Military Command operate their main battle tanks to set up a defensive position on snow-covered road (China Defence Ministry photo)

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay