China and Vietnam: Communist States at Odds

China has two major historical scores to settle, yet the Western media only mentions one of its potential Asian adversaries — the island nation of Taiwan. At its closest point Taiwan is 80 miles off the coast of the mainland and may be the site of the next great power conflict. But China also shares 14 land boundaries and more than 8 other maritime ones. The most overlooked of these is Vietnam, which shares an 806-mile border on China’s south. Today, Japan, India, and several Western nations are making diplomatic and security overtures to Vietnam. The historical roots of the bloody Sino-Vietnamese conflict run deep and are not forgotten in Hanoi. Miles Maochun Yu, of the Hoover Institution, says that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had “launched no fewer than six military actions against Vietnam, ranging from a full-scale invasion and naval battles… to sustained and repeated wars of attrition that involved several millions of salvos throughout the entirety of the 1980s.”

By the time Chinese President Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, the conflicted relationship was again strained. This time the problem was Beijing’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and its attempt to secure underwater resources, including oil and natural gas, that are internationally recognized as belonging to Vietnam. Yu points out that Vietnam, unlike other countries in the region, is uniquely positioned to take on China with a strong and discipled resistance. China has not forgotten the sting of its 1979 border war loss with its small southern neighbor. In many cases Vietnamese troops, who knew the jungle territory well, simply waited until Chinese troops left their hilltop cement fortifications and then took the over the location and slaughtered Chinese troops returning from patrol.

President Xi and the CCP leadership remain uncertain how to address the belligerent communist state that Beijing believes ought to be grateful to China. Vietnam has turned increasingly to the West in recent years. Earlier this month, the southeast Asian country received Japan’s Defense Minister, Nobuo Kishi, in a visit marked by the historic signing of an agreement allowing the transfer of Japanese-made weapons and defense technologies to Vietnam.

China also views Vietnam as the new bipartisan lynchpin in Washington’s Asia strategy. Hanoi in 2021 is an additional complexity with which Xi must deal as he attempts to expand China’s influence beyond its borders in a world mad at the communist giant for releasing the Covid virus on unsuspecting countries around the world. Xi knows Vietnam is a communist state well-versed in Marxist-Leninist doctrine and military strategies, and it has battle-hardened troops that can be mobilized effectively to fend off any Chinese incursion. The leadership in Hanoi know the CCP’s playbook well and today can call on informal alliances with Western leaning nations should Beijing attempt any military action against it.

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Japan publicly stated to Vietnam this year that they share “the same destiny” and “harsh reality” in facing a common threat from China, according to Yu. Russia is yet another long-standing ally of Vietnam and lately India is seeking better relations with Vietnam as is the United States. According to an Asian Barometer Survey published in “The Diplomat,” the United States has a better image in Vietnam than does China. What is even more troubling for President Xi is that he knows the Vietnamese increasingly welcome Washington over Beijing. A full 85% of Vietnamese say that the US has had a positive impact on their country while only 25% say that China also is good for Vietnam.

Although China this summer has attempted to improve its image in Vietnam, the CCP has a long way to go to keep open any window of opportunity for maintaining stable relations with Hanoi. This is not lost on policy makers in Washington who have increased diplomatic efforts. President Xi and the CCP’s belligerence are creating more turbulence and adversaries than they are able to buy off in their effort to move the world into a Chinese imperial court.

Daria Novak served in the Reagan State Department.

Quick Analysis

Russia Expanding Aggression

President Putin is using more than one pathway to enter Europe and undermine the West. While most of the world watches the conflict he initiated in Ukraine, the Russian government is actively pursuing a second front in a little noticed campaign in Cyprus. Although the corrupt Cypriot government ended its issuance of “golden passports” in 2020, Russian intelligence is functioning quietly there to transform this EU country into a Russian beachhead of illicit economic activity aimed at penetrating the capitalist West, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Cyprus is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nor does it receive as much attention as those countries who are member states. That adds to its allure as a prime location for Russia to attempt to gain a European foothold. Last week a NATO report, cited in the European Daily Monitor, noted that Russian intelligence agents have been plotting to destroy European infrastructure across the continent to disrupt states supporting Ukraine. It further suggests that Putin’s immediate goal is to lay the framework for a future move against the security organization’s members. Hungary, in particular, is another country garnering Moscow’s attention as it opposes the Western response to Russian aggression. Russia is focusing its intelligence efforts on other European, non-NATO member countries in addition to Cyprus, including Austria, Malta, and Ireland. The NATO report suggests that Moscow has had success in disseminating the Russian political narrative in these states to advance its campaign against the West. The island of Cyprus is proving to be a good target for Moscow as it is an ethnically divided island that is part of the EU since 2004. Northern Cyprus, officially called the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), is a de facto state that is only recognized by Turkey. The division precludes it from joining NATO. As Goble suggests, “it offers Russia troubled waters in which to fish.” Over the last 20 years, he points out, Cyprus’ challenges have opened it to a massive influx of Russian citizens, who now comprise approximately 10 percent of the island state’s population. Over 2,900 residents are Russians who entered until the “golden passport” program that allowed wealthy or well-connected Russians to move to Cyprus. It also provided them with documentation to travel freely throughout Europe! Although less visible on the world’s radar than the war in Ukraine, Moscow is also being helped by Cyprus’ banks opposition to seizing Russian assets and its support in evading Western sanctions. Russia has placed tens of billions of US Dollars there for money laundering. It has been more than two years since a single Russian “diplomat” has been deported and, in fact, the Embassy has grown to over 300 staffers on this tiny island state of only 1.2 million people. The Russian embassy in Nicosia has advanced communications antennae on its roof and opened a consulate on the northern end of the island. Moscow’s Ambassador, Mura Zyazikov, is a lieutenant general in the FSB with no diplomatic experience. The FSB, SVR (Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service), and GRU are actively using the island as a base of operations against NATO Member states, Israel, and other Western allies. Moscow backs pro-Russian political parties who in turn influence Cypriot decisions on education, language, and other issues. “Dmitry Khmelnitsky of the Dossier Center says that its findings should be of concern not only to Cyprus but to the West as a whole. Those who ignore what Moscow is doing because Cyprus does not follow the EU sanctions regime are missing something critical,” says Goble. “Cyprus does not seek to get rid of Russian agents and does not interfere with their work,” Khmelnitsky concludes, “despite the fact that what the Kremlin is doing is so clearly visible.” This has an impact not only on the small island but on the EU, NATO, and the West in general. Earlier this year the Moscow Times reported that when the FBI became more interested in Russian business and oligarchs in Cyprus, at least 10 of the major Russian businesses operating there left. Despite the government of Cyprus’ vow to implement plans for new sanctions against Russia, it continues to ignore Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine and to shield the wealth of the 50,000 wealthy Russian citizens and oligarchs residing there. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay