Category: Quick Analysis

Just as the industrial revolution changed the world’ economy and the way wars were fought hundreds of years ago, space technology is altering the way humanity works, prospers, and, yes, fights wars.

If America is to survive and thrive, it must successfully utilize space.  The National Space Intelligence Center and the National Air and Space Intelligence Center have produced a landmark report, “Competing in Space.”  We reproduce key portions of that vital work.

Every day, billions of people rely on spacecraft orbiting hundreds and thousands of miles above Earth. Complex satellite constellations support the world’s finances, transportation, and agriculture, providing essential services that transcend international borders and touch the lives of virtually every person on Earth. Major disruptions to satellite services would cause significant, perhaps irreparable, damage to 21st century life. Space systems have transformed international competition and conflict. Over 80 countries own satellites and many of these countries consider access to space systems and services as important contributors to their national security and military power projection. The U.S.’s key competitors, China and Russia, both operate hundreds of space systems to strengthen warfighting capabilities, boost spheres of influence, and position themselves as leaders in the international space community. At the same time, both of these competitors are developing counterspace capabilities capable of degrading or destroying space systems critical to civilian infrastructure and military operations. Space promises humanity boundless capabilities, resources, and achievements. However, the world’s increasing space use has made the inherent risks and vulnerabilities apparent. This publication identifies those capabilities, trends, and dangers that constitute the present and future of our space-integrated lives.

Everyday Life

Space services are key enablers of industry, critical infrastructure, and international trade. Navigation satellites provide precise timing references for banks, stock markets, and national power grids, as well as positioning data for cell phones to operate and for trucks, airplanes, and cargo ships to find their way around the world. Remote sensing satellites enable timely warning and monitoring of weather events and natural disasters, and perform mapping and tracking functions for agriculture, environmental protection, resource management, and city planning. Communications satellites supplement terrestrial communications networks and offer people, particularly those in remote or conflict regions, access to telephone, television, and broadband internet.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Space services are also key enablers for national defense and military operations. Remote sensing satellites allow tracking and monitoring of adversary installations and movement of forces. Navigation satellite constellations, like the U.S.’s Global Positioning System (GPS), provide critical positioning, navigation, and timing data to improve the effectiveness of guided munitions and deploying forces worldwide. Communications and relay satellites securely transmit data to military forces, particularly in remote regions inaccessible by traditional terrestrial communications. Ballistic missile early warning satellites serve as the initial alarm for detecting ballistic missile launches and are a critical part of national missile defense architectures.

Space Operations

Several of the world’s advanced spacefaring nations operate launch vehicles, satellites, and ground-based support infrastructure. Our key competitors, China and Russia, have developed launch vehicles capable of reaching all orbits, substantial satellite constellations for remote sensing, navigation, and communications, and networks of ground sites to launch, control, and support their spacecraft.

COMPETITORS’ SPACE PARTNERSHIPS

China and Russia offer launch and satellite services to other countries. Partnerships like these offer non-spacefaring nations the benefits of space use without the expense of developing their own space support infrastructure. China particularly incentivizes its space partnerships by offering technical exchanges, satellite services, and even production of complete satellites at little initial cost. Beyond, or in lieu of, monetary payments, China and Russia can use these opportunities to garner geopolitical influence and bolster scientific prestige. As part of broader efforts to improve military force capabilities and technological innovation, China and Russia are increasingly integrating civilian, commercial, and academic space expertise into military programs. This was evident in early 2023 when the U.S. issued sanctions and export controls against Chinese and Russia companies for providing satellite imagery support to Russian military operations in Ukraine. Both countries also pursue collaboration with academic and civil organizations abroad to enhance scientific research and expand space surveillance capabilities outside their respective borders.

SPACE GROWTH

Since the first edition of “Competing in Space,” the number of active satellites in space has more than tripled, from 1,880 to 7,096 at the end of 2022. While plans for massive mega-constellations made up of hundreds or thousands of satellites cause projections to vary widely, some estimates indicate the number of satellites in orbit may exceed the tens or even hundreds of thousands by 2032. Increasing commercial availability of launch services and production of small satellites that are cheaper, less complex, and faster to develop are propelling this growth. These factors enable some launch providers to send over a hundred satellites into low Earth orbit on one launch vehicle; for instance, India launched a foreign record of 104 satellites at once in early 2017.

The Report Continues Tomorrow

Photo: NASA

The scope of Democrat attempts to gain an illicit advantage in the 2024 election is breathtaking.

The latest maneuver comes from Democrat Colorado judges, appointed by Democrats, to keep Trump off the ballot. The decision was based a series of dubious allegations. The first baseless premise is that the one-day riot at the Capitol was an “insurrection” similar to the Civil War. The concept that a portion of the 14^th Amendment, designed to prohibit former Confederates from holding office, is applicable to Trump is absurd. Further, there is no convincing evidence that Trump was responsible for the trespass into the building.

The Colorado decision is merely the latest example.

Democrats have diligently worked to prevent ballot security measures from being enacted.  As the Biden Administration has flooded the nation with illegal immigrants, attempts to get them to vote will be a major challenge.

In New York City. In 2021, NPR reported that New York City wanted to allow 800,000 noncitizens to vote in local elections. The measure was struck down in court.

Act for America reports that “The concept [of non-citizen voting through lax security] is not new. Only 5 states feature citizenship status on their drivers license or state issued identification card including Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, and Wisconsin…Unfortunately, only the State of Alabama requires a legal form of identification that also requires proof of citizenship and they do not accept inferior forms of ID to vote in their state. This leaves us with 49 States that DO NOT have any security as it relates to proof of citizenship to vote. We are relying on the honor system, without oversight and accountability. 49 states allow inferior forms of identification at the polls that do not verify citizenship status, including Employee ID Cards, Student ID cards, a Fishing License, Bank Statements, Credit Cards with or without a photo, social security cards, and other absurd forms of identification.”

A Townhall analysis quoted  Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) warning that Biden wants to turn illegal migrants into Democrat voters— hence the reason the administration is looking the other way at one of the worst border crises of U.S. history. “The Biden administration has done this intentionally. [Department of Homeland Security] Secretary [Alejandro] Mayorkas has done this intentionally. For what reason? Everybody asks me all the time. I think that ultimately they hope to turn all these illegals into voters for their side,” Johnson said. “It sounds sinister, but there’s no other explanation for what’s happening down there. It’s an absolute humanitarian and now national security crisis — catastrophe really — and they could reverse it overnight if they wanted to, but they don’t.”

In prior elections, Democrats have sought to ignore existing ballot laws. Just one example: American Military News notes that Republicans are backing an appeal in a federal lawsuit seeking to overturn an Illinois law that allows mail-in ballots cast on or before Election Day to be counted up to 14 days afterward.

The use of election workers to engage in Democrat-oriented partisan activities is a growing problem. A Daily Signal review that “A nonpartisan organization that trains election workers from across the country is now being run by two liberal voting activists—one who previously worked for the nonprofit that distributed hundreds of millions of dollars of Mark Zuckerberg’s election grants during the 2020 elections. The grants were supposedly to “help” local governments run elections, but most of the money went to election offices in Democrat-run localities. Meanwhile, most board members of the National Association of Election Officials, commonly known as The Election Center, are current or former elections officials from heavily blue counties. “Left-wing activists want to insert ‘progressive’ groups into our election machinery, making partisan actors a permanent part of how we count ballots in all future elections,” Hayden Ludwig, director of public policy research at conservative advocacy group Restoration of America, told The Daily Signal.”

The results of all of this are obvious. In June, a Rasmussen poll revealed that “A majority of voters continue to suspect widespread election fraud, and expect cheating at the ballot box to influence the 2024 presidential election…54% of Likely U.S. Voters believe cheating is likely to affect the outcome of the next presidential election, including 30% who think it’s Very Likely.”

Illustration: Pixabay

The Biden Administration has done more than opened up the border to illegal immigration. It has done more than allowing potential criminals, terrorists, and carriers of disease to enter the nation.  It has virtually made illegal aliens an elite class with privileges exceeding those of American citizens.

In December, total nationwide encounters of illegal immigrants reached a record 371,036, eclipsing the previous monthly record set in September by 30,000. In just the first three months of fiscal year 2024, nearly one million illegal aliens were encountered at our borders, and these figures do not include thousands of ‘gotaways’ who are known to have entered but evaded law enforcement, according to FAIRUS.

In New York City, four illegal immigrants viciously assaulted two New York City Police Officers. The criminal aliens were released from custody within a few hours.

Crimes which, if U.S. citizens were involved, would be referred to federal authorities if appropriate, are not being reported if illegal aliens are involved.

One analysis that 64% of federal arrests in 2018 involved noncitizens, despite them comprising only 7% of the population at that time, and that was before the massive influx under Biden.

A 2023 House report found that: “Based on cost data provided by the National Institute of Corrections, and an analysis of Justice Department statistics of each state’s illegal and deportable alien population, one study estimates police expenditures associated with illegal aliens cost states around $8.95 billion in 2022, with judicial costs around $3.72 billion and prison costs about $6.2 billion. 24,954 criminal aliens were in federal incarceration, and according to a 2020 Department of Justice (DOJ) report, 94% of criminal aliens in Bureau of Prisons custody in FY19 were unlawfully present. Data from the bureau also indicates the average annual cost per individual incarcerated in federal prison in FY20 was $39,158. Assuming these figures, that’s nearly $1 billion to incarcerate criminal illegal aliens in federal prisons.”

The costs are more than just dealing with increased crime. Throughout the nation, local governments are dealing with increased crime, drug use, human trafficking and other crimes committed by illegals.

At various times and places, Throughout the United States, American school children have been dismissed from class in order to use their rooms to house illegals. They have been deprived of recreational and sports facilities for the same reason. Homeless veterans have been ejected from shelters to make room for illegals.

State and local budgets have been severely strained due to the heavy costs imposed by housing, feeding, educating, and medicating illegals. According to the House GOP Homeland Security Committee,     “housing and other services just to those who have been released into the United States on Mayorkas’ watch, or entered as known gotaways, could exceed $451 billion.”

A New York Post article reports that “American travelers are outraged by signs appearing at US airports appearing to allow migrants onto flights without showing proper identification. US citizens traveling domestically have to show a valid identification card or a passport to board a plane, but signs at certain airports say there are different rules for some newly arrived migrants.”

The statistics are blatant and disturbing.  The salient question is why has the Biden White House followed this path? 

To a growing number of Americans, the excess spending, soft on crime, and other progressive policies endorsed by Democrat leaders are deeply unpopular. However, the election fortunes of both the President and Democrats in general could improve if a grateful population of illegal aliens attain  the opportunity to vote.

The attitude is best expressed by Rep, Hal Colson, (D-Vermont) who expressed, in a Stateline article, the sentiment of a growing number of Democrats “People always glom onto the idea that you have to earn our right to vote by becoming a citizen…I just don’t buy that. We’re talking about a large chunk of the community that’s closed off.”

As Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC)  notes, “Over the past few years, an alarming trend has popped up in cities nationwide where non-citizens (foreign nationals), and in some cases illegal immigrants, are allowed to vote in local elections. As I write this, non-citizens can vote in certain elections in New York City, San Francisco, Chicago, and some jurisdictions in Vermont and Maryland, as non-citizen voting becomes increasingly popular across the country.”

Whether legally in some jurisdictions or illegally elsewhere, illegal aliens will go to the polls. In record numbers. Although no statutes currently exist allowing illegals to vote in a presidential election, it is inevitable that some election officials will look the other way as they do.  This is facilitated by cynical measures such as providing illegals with drivers’ licenses, which can be used to register to vote.

Illegal voting may well change the outcome of the 2024 election, and President Biden and his party will benefit.

Illustration: Pixabay

Climate change actions, “green new deal” and similar policies, many based on flawed, fraudulent or incomplete data are economically unrealistic, technologically unsound, and oblivious to life essential necessities.  

The Hoover Institute describes massive measurement errors, a failure to take into account the role of the Sun and clouds, and the inadequacy of modelling techniques that underpin much of the arguments for green policies.

The cost of these policies, estimated to be about $5 trillion just to switch from coal, nuclear and natural gas to 100% renewables, notes the Heritage Foundation, is unrealistic.  They ignore the fact that for the foreseeable future, wind and solar have little chance to provide adequate, dependable alternatives to fossil fuels.  Further, these expenditures would divert funding from advancing breakthrough technologies, such as fusion power, which could revolutionize energy production. Many of the same mistaken voices who prevented the construction of pollution-free nuclear power plants are the same that push the current erroneous moves. By the way, many of the same voices that confidently spoke of global cooling are now pushing global warming with the same level of confidence and with the same disdain for those who try to bring up appropriate questions.

It is not a coincidence that this has become a political issue. Much of the policy changes advocated have more to do with adopting socialist style economic changes, despite the reality that socialist nations have had a far worse record of environmental stewardship that their capitalist counterparts. It is not a coincidence that while the United States and Europe would have to make dramatic moves to comply, China, the worlds’ worst polluter and leading socialist nation, is given a free pass.

Green advocates  seek to punish advanced nations for providing the industrial revolution that has built the modern world, dramatically increased the standard of living, and provided the food that has lifted much of the planet out of starvation.  They would make essential fuel unaffordable for a vast population that requires heat to prevent freezing to death, or cooling to prevent heat stroke, and the assets necessary to produce adequate food.  

Recently, the New York Post reported that many wealthy politicians and climate campaigners forget that much of the planet remains mired in poverty and hunger. As such, wealthy nations are increasingly replacing their development aid with climate spending. The World Bank, whose primary goal is to help people out of poverty, has announced it will divert no less than 45% of its funding toward climate change, shifting some $40 billion annually away from poverty and hunger.

But everyone won’t be harmed from extreme green moves. Politically connected donors to Democrats have profited, as was the case in the Solyndra scandal, in which vast sums of monies went to a solar panel company that eventually went bankrupt, but not before funds were bundled on behalf of Barack Obama. Former Vice President Al Gore, notes the Daily Mail, million from climate alarmism.

Climate Realism emphasizes that “The secret of the Green New Deal is that it will make rich, politically connected elites even richer. Your average rustbelt worker will lose while those connected to politicians will win big.”

 House Subcommittee on Environment, Manufacturing, and Critical Materials Chair Bill Johnson (R-OH) recently stated that “ President Biden has put Americans at risk by pushing a ‘whole-of-government’ climate agenda that increases energy costs, undermines consumer choice, and strengthens America’s adversaries, especially China and Russia. This drastic and burdensome policy agenda also appears disconnected from his stated climate goals, in that many of the so-called ‘green’ energy technologies have significant environmental impacts. Even worse, the rush-to-green agenda is far from over.

For instance, I am deeply concerned with the EPA’s recent announcement on proposed standards for light-and medium-duty vehicles that would force the electrification of two-thirds of our domestic car market…Democrats and the Biden administration don’t want to examine the true costs of these policy choices to the environment, human rights, and national security in the United States and around the world…the deployment of renewable energy technologies that require clearing a significant amount of land…The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that solar panels need 5 acres of land to generate one megawatt of electricity, and wind turbines need 35 acres! To put that in context, you need thirty times the amount of land covered in solar panels to equal the capacity of one natural gas fired power plant…These same renewable energy technologies pose risks to Americans at the end-of-life stage. The International Renewable Energy Agency projects that global solar panel waste could reach 78 million tons by 2050, with anywhere from 7.5 million and 10 million tons of waste in need of disposal in the United States. The sheer amount of waste, some of which the EPA considers to be hazardous, is deeply troubling and begs the question of whether existing landfill capacity will be overwhelmed.

“And let’s consider human rights! The supply chain of critical materials essential for solar, wind, and EV batteries is tainted with forced labor, slavery, and child labor abuses. Both the State Department and the Department of Labor have acknowledged violations with more than 40,000 children engaging in ‘artisanal and small-scale mining,’ digging for cobalt with their bare hands in the Congo, as well as thousands of members of the Uyghur Muslim community forced into labor in China. We cannot be morally selective. It is our duty to ensure that American energy supply chains do not rely on slavery or child labor.

“We should also prioritize American national security rather than handing federal subsidies and American taxpayer dollars to Chinese companies. China controls 50-70% of lithium and cobalt refining, key inputs for EV batteries, as well as 90% of global refining capacity for rare earth elements.”

Photo: UNICEF

President Biden has made numerous claims about economic progress, most of which are not supported by independent information and statistics.

Generally, the media would address the difference between a White House claim and reality.  However, in its partisan support for the 46^th president, it has been relatively silent, with only a few exceptions.

A review of the facts reveals an economy that has become worse since Biden took office.

Inflation: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September stated inflation grew at a rate of 3.7 percent and cumulative inflation under President Biden grew to a staggering 17.1 percent. The cost of living has accelerated dramatically under the current president. A family of four is paying $15,133 per year, or $1,261 per month, more to purchase the same goods and services compared to the day he took office. The average cost of a gallon of gas was 2.372, compared to $3.09 today. The average cost of weekly groceries continues to grow, overall grocery prices was  11.3% higher in January 2023 compared to January 2022.

According to House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX)  “Hardworking families are being crushed by President Biden’s inflation-inducing fiscal policies. Today, a family of four is paying $15,133 per year, or $1,261 per month, more to purchase the same goods and services compared to the day President Biden took office. Every day, they are being forced to choose between medicine or the rent, putting food on the table or gas in the car.

Wages: real wages are lower today than they were at the beginning of Biden’s presidency in January 2021.There are various ways to measure real wages. Real average hourly earnings declined 1.7% between December 2021 and December 2022, while real average weekly earnings (which factors in the number of hours people worked) declined 3.1% over that period.

Debt: The New York Federal Reserve found  that “Total household debt rose by $16 billion to reach $17.06 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Credit card balances saw brisk growth, rising by $45 billion to a series high of $1.03 trillion. Other balances, which include retail credit cards and other consumer loans, and auto loans increased by $15 billion and $20 billion, respectively. 

Biden also alleges that he has reduced the federal deficit. Again, the facts don’t support the claim.  CNN’s Dan White, senior director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics – an economics firm whose assessments Biden has repeatedly cited during his presidency – told CNN’s Matt Egan in October: “On net, the policies of the administration have increased the deficit, not reduced it.” The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an advocacy group, wrote in September that Biden’s actions will add more than $4.8 trillion to deficits from 2021 through 2031, or $2.5 trillion if you don’t count the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill of 2021.

Independent analysts and ratings organizations have taken note. In August, Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating. “The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”

Prospects for reform under President Biden’s leadership are grim. The 46^th president continues to use the U.S. Treasury as a political piggybank to accommodate his progressive supporters and to, in essence, buy votes.  Despite the U.S. Supreme Court striking down the White Houses’ student-loan forgiveness program, noting that he lacks authority for such a move, the President has again promised to engage in similar action. He has burdened the states with massive new expenses resulting from his open border policies. His energy policies continue to keep the massive energy cost hikes he caused upon his inauguration excessively high.

The media criticism which would normally persuade a course change in an administration remains muted, as it seeks to limit support for GOP candidates.

Illustration: Pixabay

In July of last year, I discussed the case of Missouri v. Biden, in which Federal Judge Terry Doughty of the Western District of Louisiana issued an injunction against various members of the Biden Administration.  As the Court stated,  “[i]n their attempts to suppress alleged disinformation, the Federal Government, and particularly the Defendants named here, are alleged to have blatantly ignored the First Amendment’s right to free speech.” 

The decision, which was upheld by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals states that “since 2018, federal officials…have made public statements and demands to social-media platforms in an effort to induce them to censor disfavored speech and speakers…[federal officials] have threatened adverse consequences to social-media companies, such as reform of Section 230 immunity under the Communications Decency Act, antitrust scrutiny/enforcement, increased regulations, and other measures, if those companies refuse to increase censorship. Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act shields social-media companies from liability for actions taken on their websites…the threat of repealing Section 230 motivates the social-media companies to comply with [federal officials] censorship requests.”

Based on a wealth of overwhelming evidence, Judge Doughty ruled that “the United States Government, through the White House and numerous federal agencies, pressured and encouraged social-media companies to suppress free speech. Defendants used meetings and communications with social-media companies to pressure those companies to take down, reduce, and suppress the free speech of American citizens. They flagged posts and provided information on the type of posts they wanted suppressed. They also followed up with directives to the social-media companies to provide them with information as to action the company had taken with regard to the flagged post. This seemingly unrelenting pressure by Defendants had the intended result of suppressing millions of protected free speech postings by American citizens.”

Never did I imagine that I would become one of those Americans subjected to censorship, and the violation of my right to free speech.

Last month, I published a book, The Making of a Martyr: An Analysis of the Indictments of Donald Trump. I have been examining and conducting an extensive review of each of the four criminal indictments brought against the former President, and after publishing my findings in a series of columns here on usagovpolicy.com, I assembled my research into a book.

The Making of a Martyr is available at Amazon, both as an EBook and in Paperback. 

That is, if you can find it.

A search on Amazon for the title, The Making of a Martyr, turns up a series of books, none of which are mine.  To find my book. you must search both the title and my name, John H. Wilson.

In an effort to increase sales and the visibility of my book. I submitted a proposal for an advertising campaign to Amazon.  I was willing to pay seventy-five cents per click (that is, when people clicked on the advertising banner on Amazon’s web site, I would be charged), with a daily budget of twelve dollars.  This seemed to be a modest place to start.  But a few days after I forwarded my proposal to Amazon, I received an email rejecting the campaign.  “Your ad…does not comply with our current Creative Acceptance Policies…your ad contains content or book(s) prohibited from advertising.  This may include books about a specific political party, issue, or candidate during an election year.”  I was referred to “section 4.3, Political books under Book Guidelines and Acceptance policies” and advised to “remove the content or book(s) from your ad.”

Under Section 4.3, Political Books, “Prohibited Books” are defined as “[b]ooks that contain a personal attack on a specific political candidate or elected official” or “[d]uring an election year: books about a specific political party, issue, or candidate.” 

Obviously, a book that is primarily a legal discussion of a series of criminal charges currently pending in four different jurisdictions is not a “personal attack on a specific political candidate or elected official.”  However, 2024 is an election year, and The Making of a Martyr is about a specific candidate – Donald Trump.

But so is President Biden The Collected Speeches; The 4 book collection of Too Much and Never Enough, Promise Me Dad, Dreams From My Father, and The Audacity Of Hope (two books each by Joe Biden and Barak Obama; and the 2018 audiobook. Conversations with Joe, which is described as “the edited highlights of Vice President Joe Biden’s 29 city US tour…[t]hese compelling, off-the-cuff conversations are designed to amplify Biden’s powerful message of unity and promise in heartfelt and entertaining fashion.” 

Aren’t most of these books about a specific political candidate during an election year?

Perhaps these books are not being specifically “advertised” on Amazon.  But if you go to the page for each book, you will see a group of suggested books. described as “People who bought this also bought,” or “Related to this topic.”  The suggested books are typically books by Kamala Harris, Barak Obama, or more books about Joe Biden – Obama being the only one who is not currently a candidate for office.

In fairness, the same thing happens when you research books by or about Donald Trump on Amazon.  For instance, when you search for Letters to Trump, which is described as “part of the incredible private collection of correspondence between President Trump and the countless world leaders, celebrities, athletes and business leaders who shaped the United States, and the world”,it is recommended that you also purchase Trump 45: American’s Greatest President.

Maybe these books are also not being specifically advertised.  But when have you seen The Making of a Martyr as a recommended additional purchase? 

You haven’t.

The inability to advertise my book on Amazon does nothing to help sales.  I am left to my own efforts to promote my work.  Is this an intentional act of suppression of free speech on the part of Amazon?  Or is it a legitimate concern for even-handedness during an election year?

As Judge Doughtry stated, “it is not imaginary or speculative to believe that in the event of any other real or perceived emergency event, the Defendants would once again use their power over social-media companies to suppress alternative views. And it is certainly not imaginary or speculative to predict that Defendants could use their power over millions of people to suppress alternative views or moderate content they do not agree with in the upcoming 2024 national election…”  

Judge Wilson served on the bench in NYC

Illustration: Pixabay

Sweden has finally become a part of NATO, making it the 32^nd member of the alliance.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted the action makes the entire alliance stronger. The action came following a vote by Hungary’s parliament, the last holdout regarding Stockholm’s application.  In a statement, Stoltenberg noted that “I welcome the Hungarian parliament’s vote to ratify #Sweden’s membership in NATO.”

 The Nordic nation provides a significant boost to NATO’s armed forces. Overall, it is ranked as having the world’s 29^th (out of 145) most powerful military.

Published sources indicate that “The Swedish Armed Forces is made up of 24,400 active personnel, 11,400 military reserves, 21,500 Home Guard and 5,200 additional conscripts yearly into the Reserves (set to increase to 8,000 conscripts yearly by 2024) as of 2022. The Swedish army has 121 tanks (Leopard 2A5/Strv 122), roughly 1,300 APCs (Patria XA-360/203/180, RG-32 Scout), 800 IFVs (550 CV9040, 150 Bv410, 90 Bv308/309), 11,300 utility vehicles (ex. Bv206/208, MB G-Class 6×6 and 4×4, MB sprinter), 84 towed and 40 self-propelled mortar (12 cm grk m/41, grkpbv90) and 48 self-propelled artillery guns (Archer). It also consists of several different specialized vehicles. The Swedish Navy has a total of 387 ships, including 4 submarines (3 Gotland, 1 Södermanland), 7 corvettes (5 Visby, 2 Gävle), 9 minesweepers (5 Koster, 4 Styrsö), 13 larger patrol boats (2 Stockholm and 11 Tapper) and 9 specialised ships with different support duties. The rest is made up of different smaller vessels such as the CB90. Currently the Swedish Airforce has a total of 210 aircraft, 94 of those being JAS39C/D Gripen (60 JAS39E on order), 6 C130H Hercules (1 with aerial refueling capabilities), 4 SAAB 340 (2 AEW&C and 2 VIP transport), 4 Gulfstream IV (2 SIGINT and 2 VIP transport) as well as 15 UH-60 Blackhawk, 18 NH90 and 20 AgustaWestland helicopters. The rest is made up of different transport and trainer aircraft.”

International experts at the Wilson Center including Jason C. Moyer and Henri Winberg explain that “As a member of NATO, Sweden will provide the Alliance with 1) support from its strong defense industry, 2) high-technological competence, and 3) a significant air force. These contributions will be crucial in preparing the Alliance to combat modern threats, as well as providing a dramatic multiplier to NATO’s capacity in two vital regions—the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic. With Sweden’s modern and diverse capabilities soon to be added to NATO’s toolkit, it is worth taking a look at what the country will contribute to the Alliance, now and in the future…he country’s largest defense companies produce some of the most sophisticated equipment on the market, such as Saab’s Jas 39 Gripen and BAE System AB’s Combat Vehicle 90…The second benefit is the high level of technological competence in Sweden’s private sector. Sweden’s extensive public-private partnerships, considerable R&D funding, and highly-ranked education system are some of the factors behind its success in high-tech. The government launched a national ‘Cybercampus’ initiative in 2020 in partnership between the Swedish Defense Forces, public universities, and private companies, and established the Centre for Cyber Defence and Information Security in Stockholm. As NATO expands its ability to counter cyber and hybrid threats, Sweden’s technological know-how will help prepare the Alliance to prepare for tomorrow’s threats. In addition, with Sweden in NATO, two of the three manufacturers of 5G equipment—Ericsson and Nokia—will be in the same defensive alliance.”

The recent entry of Finland in 2023 and now Sweden is a clear rebuke to Russia’s Vladmir Putin, who at various times issued dire threats if the Nordic nations joined.  Since his invasion of Ukraine, formally passive nations have realized that Russia presents serious and imminent threats to all its neighbors.

Illustration: Pixabay

Iran and Russia may be preparing for a formal alliance after their latest cozying up session.

As Moscow pivots toward Asia, Tehran simultaneously is tilting toward Eurasia. The Christmas Day 2023 bilateral meeting resulted in “unprecedented” military sales of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and “unparalleled” cooperation between the two countries. It concerns American military analysts in Washington who say that a new interstate treaty, directed at their shared opposition to the collective
West, will shape the two states bilateral relationship for several years.

“The expanding military cooperation is part of a broader geopolitical alignment between Iran and Russia,” says Emil Avdaliani of
the Eurasia Daily Monitor. At the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council’s Christmas Day meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, its members signed a Free Trade Agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)and its Member states, on one part, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, on the other. It will lead to further cooperation in a
wide range of sectors, according to the EAEU. It also is an indication that it is unlikely for a rapprochement between Tehran and the West in the near future.

Last week, according to the publication Ukrainska Pravda, reports starting surfacing saying that Iran has supplied Russia with almost 400 surface-to-surface ballistic missile (Fateh-100 family design) that can travel several hundred kilometers. That means Putin’s forces can attack all parts of Ukraine’s infrastructure from inside Russian territory.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 24 months ago, Iran and Russia have expanded their ties. Last month’s announcement concerning the sale of Fateh-100 surface-to-surface missiles is an indication that the two countries are establishing a “new type of bilateral military relationship,” says Avdaliani.

Previously, Tehran was more cautious fearing a backlash from the United States and the European Union that could result in a re-imposition of UN sanctions. Last October the UN arms embargo on Iran
expired. It can now legally export missiles to Russia or import military technology int Iran. Second, the Islamic Republic may be supplying the missiles in reaction to Ira’s deteriorating position with the collective West.

The third consideration for Tehran is the war in Gaza. It is treading carefully as it knows Washington is supporting Israel and wants to avoid the Biden Administration’s criticism of Iran’s involvement.

“Two primary considerations likely played a role in Iran deciding to send missile exports to Russia. First, Iran stands to receive significant profits from the transfer,” says Avdaliani. The money could be used to
offset the impact of previous Western sanctions. Second, he suggests, is that Iran may recognize Russia’s increased need for ballistic missiles and, in exchange, no longer refuse to provide Iran with the type of
military it has long needed.

Iran and Russia have a number of active military transfer agreements. Tehran supplies Moscow with drones built in Central Asia and last summer agree to establish a join drone production in Russia,
Ekonomichna Pravda reports. Although denied by Iran, at the end of November, it received operational ready Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft and acquired a number of Su-35 Russian fighter jets along with
Mi-28 attack helicopters. Western intelligence sources believe the deals occurred as part of exchange for Iran’s support of Putin’s war in Ukraine. The Cradle, a journalist-driven publication covering West Asia, reports that rumor has it the recently signed interstate agreement will culminate in a 20-year deal to expand military, economic and political ties between Russian and Iran and, in effect, realign geopolitics in the region. The move to a more formal alliance, which is expected in the coming months,
will be a clear indication to democratic nations that Iran has no intention of rapprochement on the nuclear issue or continuing any effort at concerted cooperation with the collective West. “Iran’s
strategic vision is entirely in line with its pivot to Asia,” concludes Avadliani.

Dari Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

The federal budget is rapidly spiraling out of control.

The House Budget Committee is deeply worried about the Biden Administration’s massive overspending on items not directly related to the key needs of the nation.  

They note that: Last year, President Biden’s FY 2024 budget request had the highest sustained levels of taxes, spending, and deficits in American history. $82 trillion in spending over ten years; annual spending is equivalent to $100,000 per family of four, or $1 million over the ten-year budget. $18.9 trillion increase in projected spending compared to the baseline President Biden inherited. $17 trillion in deficits over ten years – the highest sustained level in American history. $1.3 trillion in interest payments on the debt by the end of the budgetary window, which is almost triple 2022 spending. $65 trillion in taxes over ten years – the highest sustained level in American history. $4.7 trillion proposed tax increase over ten years – the largest nominal tax increase in American history. $19 trillion in higher debt, which would increase the gross federal debt to $51 trillion by 2033.

Senator Grassley (R-Iowa) specifies that “President Biden has pushed reckless spending that’s fueled the fires of inflation and driven our nation further into debt. This is not the mark of a serious leader.”

Senator John Thune concurs.  “Federal spending has grown increasingly out of control under the Biden administration. The federal government will spend 40 percent more this year than it did just four years ago, yet the president and Democrats continue to propose more reckless spending and balk at Republicans’ responsible attempts to rein it in. Democrats have added trillions to the debt in the last two years and fueled an inflation crisis with their overspending. And their reluctance to engage in serious negotiations to reduce excess government spending risks precipitating a debt crisis. At $31.4 trillion, our national debt already exceeds the size of the entire U.S. economy, and it’s projected to rise to over $50 trillion in the next decade. This level of debt is not only unsustainable, it’s unacceptable. Government debt drives up interest rates, crowds out private investment, and weakens America’s economic and national security.  Just paying the interest alone on this much debt is an increasingly serious challenge. Unless common-sense fiscal policy is prioritized, 50 cents out of every dollar the government borrows over the next decade will go toward making interest payments. In a few years, interest payments will exceed what we spend on national defense, with Medicare and Social Security not far behind. “

The Budget Committee isn’t only worried about the total spending.  It is also concerned about non-essential spending.  Examples include:

$11.9 billion at the Department of Energy for “climate and clean energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment.” $3.9 billion to fund the Department of Homeland Security’s “climate resilience programs.” $8.2 billion at the State Department “to advance diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility” and funding “to recruit, retain, and develop a diverse…..workforce.” $2.6 billion for the Department of Transportation to address “environmental justice concerns and climate change by providing a funding source for transportation projects and programs.” $1.8 billion across the Environmental Protection Agency to “clean up pollution, advance racial equity, and secure environmental justice for communities… [facing] impacts of climate change.” $705 million for the Department of Health and Human Services to support “administration priorities such as racial equity, environmental justice, and climate change.” $100 million at the Department of Education in grant funding for communities to “promote racial and socioeconomic diversity in their schools.”

Adam Andrzeiejwwski writing for the Open the Books Substack emphasizes that about $20 billion was spent on refugee care in 2023.  

 A Wall Street Journal analysis notes that “CBO forecasts that under current law the national debt will grow to $48.3 trillion in 2034 from $26.2 trillion this last fiscal year—a whopping 84% increase. Debt as a share of GDP will rise to 116% in 2034 from 97.3%. As helpful historical context, the U.S. added $22.3 trillion in debt in its entire history through 2021, about as much as its projected to pile on over the next 10 years. Don’t blame Americans for not paying enough taxes. Revenues are expected to average 17.8% of GDP through 2034, which is more than the 17.3% average over the last 50 years. The problem is that spending over the next decade will average 23.5% of GDP—significantly more than the 50-year average (21%). Even these debt projections may be optimistic. They assume no recession and that the 2017 individual tax cuts and Inflation Reduction Act’s sweetened ObamaCare subsidies expire in 2025. Oh, and that Congress doesn’t lather on more spending, and more student debt isn’t canceled by executive decree.

Politics plays a vast role in the Biden Administration’s spending choices. His continual attempt to forgive student loans, despite the Supreme Court’s rebuke and the obvious violation of Constitutional provisions on how spending is authorized, is a major attempt to secure youthful votes.

Illustration: Pixabay

President Xi’s bellicose language towards its neighbors and the United States is demonstrably backed up by sheer and undeniable military strength.  

According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the PLA (China’s People’s Liberation Army) has sought to modernize its capabilities and improve its proficiencies across all warfare domains so that, as a joint force, it can conduct the full range of land, air, and maritime as well as nuclear, space, counterspace, electronic warfare (EW), and cyberspace operations. The PLA’s evolving capabilities and concepts continue to strengthen the PRC’s ability to “fight and win wars” against a “strong enemy” (a likely euphemism for the United States), counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict along the PRC’s periphery, and project power globally.

China continues to modernize equipment and focus on combined arms and joint training in effort to meet the goal of becoming a world class military. Beijing demonstrated a new long-range fire capability in the PLA military response to the August 2022 U.S. Congressional Delegation visit to Taiwan. It continues to incorporate a twice a year conscript intake.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants. The PLAN is largely composed of modern multi-mission ships and submarines. In 2022, the PLAN launched its third aircraft carrier, CV-18 Fujian. ‒ It also commissioned its third YUSHEN class Amphibious Assault Ships) and has likely begun construction on a fourth as of early 2023. In the near-term, the PLAN will have the ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarine and surface combatants using land-attack cruise missiles, notably enhancing the PRC’s power projection capability. ‒ The PRC continues to challenge foreign military activities in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in a manner that is inconsistent with the rules of customary international law as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. At the same time, the PLAN conducts activities in the EEZs of other countries, including the United States, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

 The PLAAF and PLAN aviation together constitute the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific region. The PLAAF is rapidly catching up to western air forces. The PLAAF continues to modernize with the delivery of domestically built aircraft and a wide range of UASs. In October 2019, the PLAAF signaled the return of the airborne leg of its nuclear triad after the PLAAF publicly revealed the H-6N as its first nuclear-capable air-to-air refuelable bomber.

People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is advancing its long-term modernization plans to enhance its ‘strategic deterrence’ capabilities. The PRC is developing new ICBMs that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production, partially due to the introduction of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities. The PRC may be exploring development of conventionally-armed intercontinental range missile systems. If developed and fielded, such capabilities would allow the PRC to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska.

Indeed, the Stockholm Peace Research Institute notes that “China possesses an estimated 410 nuclear warheads as of January 2023, which marks an increase of around 60 warheads from the previous year…it makes clear that China’s historical reliance on a “minimum deterrent” has markedly shifted. Moreover, additional Chinese warheads are expected in the future. Along with its warhead expansion, China is advancing its “nuclear triad,” consisting of land-based, sea-based, and air-based nuclear delivery systems.”

China’s scientists continue to pioneer innovative weapons systems. One example, as reported by SCMP Chinese military scientists have developed a science-fiction like energy shield.”

President Xi has admonished his nation to “focus all its energy on fighting.” 

China’s growing preference for force and threats can be seen in its Taiwan and Hong Kong policies.  In gaining control of Hong Kong through the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, it agreed to conditions allowing Hong Kong to maintain existing structures of government and economy under a principle of “one country, two systems” for half a century.  Had it adhered to that provision, it would have been a signal to Taiwan that Beijing’s goal of unification was peaceful and that it would respect local rights.  In ignoring its Hong Kong obligations, it signaled that it would seek to takeover Taiwan by force.

The same can be said for Beijing’s attitude towards the rest of the world.  It’s diplomats scold and threaten representatives of the nations it deals with, in a strategy known as “wolf diplomacy.”  

Photo: Chinese force live-fire artillery training (China Defence Ministry)