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Russia-China Axis Threatens U.S.

Following the fall of the Soviet Union, many in Washington believed that American military might was unassailable in the larger strategic sense. While smaller, regional problems would inevitably rise, (Saddam Hussein’s Iraq being a prime example) the globe as a whole appeared to many as lacking the existential threat formerly posed by the U.S.S.R.

That very sense of security proved to be a key factor in the rise of threats that not only match but exceed those posed by the cold war—or, as it should now be known, Cold War 1.

China’s robust economy wasn’t sufficiently recognized as enabling that nation’s People’s Liberation Army to build a military that would allow it to rival America’s armed forces.  Sales of advanced supercomputers by the Clinton Administration to Beijing  substantially accelerated that process. Further, President Clinton’s signing of legislation that guaranteed trade relations with China enhanced Beijing’s economic rise while simultaneously weakening the manufacturing base upon which the American defense industry relies. Over the past several years, China’s aggression towards its neighbors has not been met with any significant response from Washington.

Powerful and confident, China has invaded the offshore Exclusive Economic Zone belonging to the Philippines, and taken numerous aggressive actions against its regional neighbors.

Vladimir Putin’s aggressiveness wasn’t sufficiently discouraged. The 2008 invasion of Georgia, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine incurred no significant response. Russia has engaged in a massive arms buildup, a restoration of Cold War 1 bases in Latin America, violations of arms accords, and nuclear patrols of European and American coastlines. It has militarized the Arctic. The West has not taken any sufficient counter-steps.

As worrisome as the individual actions of Moscow and Beijing are, it is the alliance between the two nations that is the most troubling.
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Russia, the planet’s geographically largest nation, and China, with the world’s largest population, have combined their strengths in an alliance clearly aimed at the United States. The two enormous states have engaged in extensive joint military exercises across the globe, have engaged in sales of military equipment, and have covered for each other’s military misdeeds in diplomatic forums.

The two have undertaken significant economic deals with each other. Russia’s vast supplies of energy are deeply attractive to China, and Beijing’s economic muscle is essential to the Kremlin’s lackluster economy. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the two have signed economic deals and a financing agreement worth about $25 billion. At the signing of the deal, Putin stated that “Today, China is our key strategic partner.”

Moscow’s foreign minister Lavrov was quoted in 2011 in the Russian news source RT  saying “Russian-Chinese relations are an optimal model of interaction between states…An optimal model of interstate relations has been formed on the basis of the Treaty. It is functioning successfully. It also meets the Russian and Chinese people’s national interests and attracts their full support…The past ten years have been marked by vigorous developments in all spheres and by the greatest successes in the history of the two nations. An intensive summit-level dialog is being maintained. Mutual political trust has become qualitatively stronger”

In their study of this extraordinary alliance, Douglas Schen and Melik Kaylan, in their new book “The Russian-China Axis” describe the cooperation between the two giant states:

“Militarily, the two nations are cooperating and collaborating like never before…Put simply, this coalition has the potential to permanently and fundamentally alter international relations.  It was envisioned as,  and it has functioned as, a counterweight to liberal democracy generally and the United States specifically…The Russia-China alliance—we call it a new Axis—already possesses extraordinary power, as it is clear not just with new economic and trade agreements and military cooperation but also in the areas of nuclear proliferation and cyber warfare.  Individually and together, Russia and China seek to undermine the social, economic, and political framework of democratic societies and our alliances in a way that has yet to be fully understood. Their efforts to do so are emboldened immeasurably by a United States that is losing the confidence and trust of its allies and partners around the world. “

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Obamacare found to be detrimental to seniors

In the public discussions leading up to the passage of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare,) a point repeatedly brought up by the opposition was that it would lead to discrimination against the elderly. It now appears that the critics were correct.

“Senior citizens”, notes  Sciencecodex, “were concerned about the Affordable Care Act because they knew adding more people to Medicare would lead to even fewer doctors available. And they were right, they are now discriminated against by the healthcare system and it is not just stressful, it is literally bad for their health. A national survey shows that one in every three older Americans who are on the receiving end of age-related discrimination in the healthcare setting will likely develop new or worsened functional ailments in due course. This follows a study led by Stephanie Rogers, a fellow in geriatrics at UC San Francisco in the United States.”

HOW THIS HAPPENED

The question, of course, is how this occurred. A Forbes study provides an answer.

“One of the best kept secrets of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is that it imposes a global budget on Medicare spending – for the first time in the program’s history. Heretofore, Medicare was a pure entitlement program. The government had to pay for whatever care the elderly and the disabled obtained. But going forward, the health reform law imposes a cap on spending.

“For most of its history, per capita Medicare spending in real terms grew at about twice the rate of growth of real per capita GDP – just like the rest of the health care system. But going forward, the law requires Medicare to grow at a rate that is not much more than the growth of GDP – regardless of what happens to other health care spending. If the historical trend continues, that means spending on health care for the elderly and the disabled will grow about half as fast as spending on everyone else’s care…

“One bad result is that that Medicare beneficiaries are likely to be pushed into a second tier health care system – where access to care will become increasingly difficult, as seniors less financially attractive to providers become Medicaid patients. The impact will become worse through time. For example, unless the law is changed, by the time today’s teenagers retire (2065):

  • Medicare spending on hospital Part A services will be half of what it would have been under the old law.
  • Medicare spending on doctors (Part B services) will be 61 percent of what it would have been under the old law.

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“As Thomas Saving (a former Medicare Trustee) and [John Goodman]  noted in a blog post at Health Affairs, for 65-year-olds, the forecasted reduction in spending is roughly equal to three years of average Medicare spending. For 55-year-olds, the loss expected is the rough equivalent of five years of benefits; and for 45-year-olds, it’s almost nine years.

“How does Obamacare accomplish the spending reductions? The new law gives an Independent Payment Advisory Board the power to recommend cuts in reimbursement rates for providers of health care. Congress must either accept these cuts or propose its own plan to cut costs as much or more. If Congress fails to substitute its own plan, the board’s cuts will become effective. Moreover, the advisory board is barred from considering just about any cost control idea other than cutting fees to doctors, hospitals and other suppliers.”

THE POLITICAL ANGLE

Some reviewers believe there is a political angle to these decisions. An American Thinker  article describes this:

“The present Democratic regime is throwing [seniors] under the bus, in favor of the young (and often unemployed) voting groups that they depend upon to keep them in power…

“…ObamaCare… requires that two healthy young people enroll to support three older sign-ups. The young are not cooperating; in fact, many of them will have to be subsidized. The Democrats won’t dare antagonize them, since they are one of their most important supporting groups. So guess who’s going to get thrown under the bus. [seniors] are living too long and spending too much healthcare money to do so. You must be persuaded to gracefully depart

“One way is healthcare rationing. You probably laughed when Sarah Palin began talking about ObamaCare death panels…But that may not be enough to balance the budget. Old people who should die and won’t die may have to be persuaded to die.”

INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLES

Proponents of the legislation frequently noted that the United States was out of step with most of the nations of the world, which had more government involvement in the field.

Those advocates should have reviewed those other nations more carefully, particularly in their treatment of senior citizens. Interestingly enough, those programs envied by American proponents of Obamacare do discriminate against seniors.  In a significant expose in England’s Daily Mail , it is revealed that “According to shocking new research by Macmillan Cancer Support, every year many thousands of older people are routinely denied life-saving NHS treatments because their doctors write them off as too old to treat.

“It is often left to close family members to fight for their rights. But although it is now British law that patients must never be discriminated against on the basis of age, such battles often prove futile…experts at Macmillan Cancer Support… warned last week that every day up to 40 elderly cancer sufferers are dying needlessly because they are being denied the best treatments. This is particularly true, it says, for patients over the age of 70…

“Discrimination against the elderly affects not only cancer treatment but goes right across the board, according to another new report…

“Last week, the respected health research charity, the King’s Fund, warned that prejudice about older people means they often go without treatment for conditions such as depression, and are not even tested for illnesses such as heart disease.

“The Patients Association and Care Quality Commission have both recently published studies detailing ‘shocking’ standards.”

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) famously stated that “we would have to pass [Obamacare] to find out what’s in it.” The legislation has passed, and what has been found is inappropriate, especially for  seniors.

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White House, State Department downplay Iran threat

Washington and the media have paid attention to Iran’s nuclear program and its belligerence within the Middle Eastern region.  However, its threatening activities within the American Hemisphere have received comparatively little notice.

According to the General Accounting Office  (GAO) “Iranian government elements—including the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Qods Force, and Iran’s close ally Lebanese Hizballah—have played a role in terrorist operations in the Western Hemisphere over the past two decades. This includes the 1994 bombing of the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, that killed 85 people. In October 2011, the United States announced charging two men with conspiracy to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States. The alleged plot was directed by elements of the Iranian government to murder the Ambassador with explosives while the Ambassador was in the United States, according to the announcement.”

Far more serious are recent revelations that Iran has considered launching an EMP assault on the United States, which could shut down all electrical capacity within a substantial portion of the nation and result in massive numbers of deaths. (See our report of May 29.)

The Washington Institute has noted:

“As Iran presses on in its efforts to become a nuclear power, the regime in Tehran also employs an aggressive foreign policy that relies heavily on the deployment of clandestine assets abroad to collect intelligence and support foreign operations, all of which are aimed at furthering Iranian foreign policy interests. From a U.S. perspective, Iran’s massive diplomatic presence in the Western Hemisphere presents a particularly acute problem. In response to Iran’s abuse of the diplomatic system, the international community should collectively press our friends and allies in Latin America to severely restrict the size of Iran’s diplomatic missions to the minimum needed to conduct official business.”

The National Interest  reports:

“… one aspect of the Iranian challenge has received remarkably short shrift: its expanding presence and activities in our own hemisphere. This is surprising, given the fact that the Islamic Republic’s capacity to threaten the U.S. homeland is comparatively well known. Back in October of 2011, U.S. law-enforcement agencies foiled a plot orchestrated by elements of Iran’s feared clerical army, the Revolutionary Guards, to kill Saudi Arabia’s envoy to the United States in a DC restaurant, using Mexico’s notorious Los Zetas cartel as a proxy.

“The event jolted Congress awake to Iran’s growing presence in our own hemisphere. The result was theCountering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012, which required the White House to formulate a strategy aimed at neutralizing Iran’s activities south of the U.S. border.

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“That, however, simply isn’t the case. Objectively, Iran’s presence in Central and South America is as significant today as it was nearly a decade ago, when the Islamic Republic made common cause with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez in his efforts to erect an anti-American axis in our hemisphere. Although Chavez is now gone, Iran’s partnerships with other “Bolivarian” regimes (most notably Bolivia and Ecuador) remain very much in force. Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, has taken pains to reiterate that the Americas remain at the top of his government’s foreign-policy agenda. And a building wave of leftist politics in the region—from Peru to Honduras to El Salvador to Colombia—may soon net Iran new local partners, and even greater freedom of action.”

The Americas Report, published by the Menges Hemispheric Security Project,  has reviewed new research by Emilio Blasco, Washington correspondent for the newspaper, ABC Spain. His book, “Boomerang Chavez” confirms many points about Iran’s penetration into the Western Hemisphere., which include involvement in drug dealing and election fraud.

“More worrisome is the information the author obtained from Rafael Isea, a former deputy minister of Finance and president of the Bank of Economic and Social Development. According to Mr. Isea, it was Maduro, then Venezuela’s foreign minister, who travelled to Damascus in 2007 to meet with Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in order to negotiate the installation of Hezbollah cells in Venezuela. This agreement protected Hezbollah’s drug trafficking and money laundering activities as well as their arms supplies and provision of passports. These passports and visas were prepared by Ghazi Nassereddine, a counselor in the Venezuelan embassy in Syria (he was born in Lebanon and became a Venezuelan citizen), and later was blacklisted by the FBI…Their role, according to the former Venezuelan high officer, was to participate in drug trafficking and money-laundering in order to secure funding for Hezbollah.

“Besides Hezbollah’s ‘financial’activities, it is clear that Hezbollah’s very presence in Latin America is, in itself, a security problem. Let us remember that a Hezbollah member stationed in Guyana went to New York in 2007 to carry out a terrorist attack at the the JFK airport. By the same token, it is reported that U.S. agencies also discovered attempts by Hezbollah to establish contacts with Mexican drug cartels to gain access to the border with the U.S. This, of course, is confirmed by the assassination attempt against the Saudi Ambassador in October 2011 carried out by Iran with the help of the “Zetas”, a notoriously violent Mexican drug cartel.

“Likewise, it has been reported that the sophisticated tunnels built on the U.S./Mexican border have been built exactly in the image of the tunnels built by Hezbollah on the Israeli/Lebanese border. These actions can place the U.S. at the mercy of terrorist attacks not just by Hezbollah but by any other terrorist group that establishes an alliance with Iran.”

The General Accounting Office notes that “Congress has expressed serious concerns about Iranian activities in the Western Hemisphere.”

It is evident that the White House and the State Department continue to downplay this very real and very significant threat in their ongoing pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran, while the Department of Defense has been openly concerned about the threat. In 2013, Marine Corps Gen. John F. Kelly told the House Armed Services Committee that Iran “has been very, very active over the last few years” in cultivating diplomatic and cultural ties to the region.”

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The politics of ignoring reality

Debates and differences in ideologies and viewpoints are a healthy exercise for a democracy. Government officials, however, harm the nation when they base their actions solely on politics or personal philosophy, and not on objective facts or an honest review of the outcomes and results of their strategies on similar issues.

Unfortunately, a lack of objectivity in reviewing the results of past decisions is epidemic in the United States government today, both in domestic and foreign affairs. The impact can be felt on the streets of American cities, and in the air, sea, and battlegrounds of hotspots throughout the planet. Two examples, among many, illustrate the problem.

For several decades, violent crime had been at moderate to low levels throughout the nation. However, in the wake of several incidents which received widespread publicity, and despite significant errors in early media perceptions of the nature of the incidents, it became a popular trend for many government officials and their supporters in the press to portray urban law enforcement as racist and overly aggressive.

President Obama commented on a racially-tinged shooting incident in Florida, and made what many consider inappropriate comments in an ongoing investigation. New York City’s Mayor de Blasio campaigned for his office on a platform of distrust for the NYPD, generally considered the most professional such force in the world. News organizations competed with each other to give air time to professional provocateurs, such as Al Sharpton, well known for his prior false statements regarding the police, and his long history of intentionally provoking racial unrest.  The federal Justice Department intervened in local issues in a manner that clearly conveyed their unproven assumption that police departments across the nation were instruments of racism.

The results should surprise no one.  After decades of moderate crime levels, violence is increasing in key cities. In Los Angeles, reports the L.A. Times, violent crime is increasing for the first time in twelve years. In Baltimore, some neighborhoods have seen as many homicides so far this year than they did in the entire 12 months of 2014, reports CBS. In New York City, the Daily News reports that homicides have spiked 20% since last year. Crimes in previously safe areas of the city have made spectacular headlines.
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The reasons are obvious. Discrediting and discouraging law enforcement personnel, largely for political reasons, is an invitation to lawlessness. Unfortunately, for many politicians, the strategy of riling up their base by inflammatory claims of racism is a far too tried-and-true a strategy to give up, and there is little indication of a change in their rhetoric.

The same problems holds true for international relations.  In an attempt to appease a base of support that wishes to transfer as much as possible of the 1/6 of the federal budget dedicated to defense to domestic spending, the Obama administration made a series of foreign policy-related moves that reduced global U.S. military influence and presence. The results have been disastrous. Withdrawal from Iraq led to the conditions that allowed ISIS to gain power. The “Reset” with Russia has encouraged dangerous adventurism on Moscow’s part that eerily resembles the conditions leading to the start of the Second World War. The refusal to counter Chinese aggression towards the Philippines and Japan has now reached a potential flashpoint over Beijing’s unlawful occupation of strategic areas that is a hair-trigger away from a clash of arms.

It can be argued, with credibility, that these are complex issues, with far more antecedents than the biased comments of the media or the political aspirations of some politicians. But policy is made by politicians and public support is gained through media coverage, and, despite the unwanted results, there is, again, no indication of a change in course due to the poor outcomes.

When politics trumps the good of the nation, the citizenry inevitably loses.

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U.S. GDP Decreases

Deeply worrisome figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm reveal that America’s Real Gross Domestic Product –the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015. Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States — decreased 0.9 percent, or $38.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $17,665.0 billion.

A review of the nature of the downturn is even more troubling. Two core economic functions vital to the long term health of the American economy, including exports (Exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter, while real imports of goods and services increased 5.6 percent.) and nonresidential fixed investments (which decreased by 2.8%)  played a key role. Another less basic function included a decrease in state and local government spending, which was offset by an increase in federal spending.

The reasons for America’s ongoing economic slide are not difficult to discern. It is clear that the recession of 2007 has little or nothing to do with the current crisis. In a pattern familiar to nations where the central government continues to play a greater role through increased taxes and regulations, the uncertainty and handicaps placed on entrepreneurship continue to drag down investment and business activity.  The President who tells those who start and grow businesses, especially small businesses, that “You didn’t build that” cannot expect that would-be creators of jobs and revenue would be anything but discouraged from proceeding.

U.S. businesses are increasingly handicapped by federal regulations, Obamacare costs, and the threat of an enormous increase in energy prices due to the threats to the future of coal. At the same time, they are competing not just in the global economy but even within the American domestic market with nations that offer lower and less inclusive corporate tax rates, and have a far less stringent regulatory regime. Continuous requests for a more level playing field, in which goods sold by other nations in the U.S. market should be manufactured under the same standards—have been ignored by official Washington, which pursues precisely the opposite course by supporting international trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will intensify the problem.

U.S. manufacturing, a key area of the economy both for domestic consumption and exports, continues to face difficult times due to prior legislation signed by President Clinton in 2000, who essentially guaranteed most favored nation status to China.  American industrial employment and manufacturing enterprises have never recovered from that act, or from Clinton’s earlier allowance of the sale of supercomputers to Beijing.

 

Text of the BEA Release

   Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, real GDP increased 0.2 percent. With the second estimate for the first quarter, imports increased more and private inventory investment increased less than previously estimated…

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Real GDP decreased 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, in contrast to an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.  The downturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and upturns in federal government spending and in private inventory investment.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 1.6 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate; this index decreased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter.  Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the fourth.  Durable goods increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 6.2 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent. Services increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.8 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.7 percent in the fourth.  Investment in nonresidential structures decreased 20.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.9 percent.  Investment in equipment increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.  Investment in intellectual property products increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 10.3 percent.  Real residential fixed investment increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.

Real exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.5 percent in the fourth.  Real imports of goods and services increased 5.6 percent, compared with an increase of 10.4 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 7.3 percent in the fourth.  National defense decreased 1.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 12.2 percent.  Nondefense increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 0.33 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.10 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change.  Private businesses increased inventories $95.0 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $80.0 billion in the fourth quarter and $82.2 billion in the third.

Real final sales of domestic product — GDP less change in private inventories — decreased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent in the fourth.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases — purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced — increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the fourth.

Gross national product

Real gross national product — the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents — decreased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the fourth.  GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the

world, which decreased $24.9 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $30.7 billion in the fourth; in the first quarter, receipts decreased $22.4 billion, and payments increased $2.5 billion.

Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP — the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States — decreased 0.9 percent, or $38.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $17,665.0 billion.  In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.4 percent, or $103.9 billion.

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Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in production, increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent (revised) in the fourth.  For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data.  However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of change.

Revisions

The second estimate of the first-quarter percent change in real GDP is 0.9 percentage point, or $40.7 billion, less than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision to imports and downward revisions to private inventory investment and to personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by an upward revision to residential fixed investment.

Advance Estimate  Second Estimate

(Percent change from preceding quarter)

 

Real GDP………………………….       0.2              -0.7

Current-dollar GDP…………………       0.1              -0.9

Real GDI………………………….       —               1.4

Gross domestic purchases priceindex….      -1.5              -1.6

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) decreased $125.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $30.4 billion in the fourth.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $2.6 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $12.5 billion in the fourth.  Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $100.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $18.1 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $22.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $36.1 billion.  This measure is calculated as the difference between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world.  In the first quarter, receipts decreased $28.9 billion, and payments decreased $6.5 billion.

Taxes on corporate income increased $9.3 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $4.8 billion in the fourth.  Profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj decreased $134.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $25.8 billion.  The first-quarter changes in taxes on corporate income mainly reflect the expiration of bonus depreciation provisions…Dividends increased $5.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $18.6 billion in the fourth.  Undistributed profits decreased $139.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $44.3 billion. Net cash flow with IVA — the internal funds available to corporations for investment – decreased $132.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $12.2 billion.

The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts.  The IVA increased $29.4 billion, compared with an increase of $27.5 billion.  The CCAdj decreased $220.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $3.9 billion. Thefirst-quarter changes in CCAdj mainly reflect the expiration of bonus depreciation provisions…

Impacts of Bonus Depreciation on the First Quarter of 2015

The first-quarter changes in taxes on corporate income and in capital consumption adjustment(CCAdj) mainly reflect the expiration of both the 50-percent bonus depreciation provision and increased Section 179 expensing limits claimed under extensions of the 2010 tax acts.  For detailed data, see the table “Net Effects of the Tax Acts of 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010 (and extensions) on Selected Measures of Corporate Profits“.

BEA’s estimates of profits from current production are not affected by these tax acts because profits from current production do not depend on the depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax purposes.  BEA’s measure of current-production profits reflects economic accounting practices in which depreciation is based on an estimate of the reduction in the value of fixed capital used in the production process.  For a more detailed discussion on the effect of tax act provisions on the CCAdj, see FAQ 1002, “How do the economic stimulus acts impact NIPA Corporate Profits?”

_________________

Gross value added of nonfinancial domestic corporate business

Real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter.Profits per unit of real value added decreased, reflecting increases in unit labor and nonlabor costs and a decrease in unit prices.

BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov.  By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

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Quick Analysis

Iran could attack the U.S. homeland

In the event of a significant clash between Iran and the United States, Tehran’s options are not limited to striking at American forces in the Middle East.

Intelligence sources remain concerned that Iran has studied the possibility of a strike at the U.S. electrical grid through an electromagnetic pulse attack.  A successful attempt could destroy electrical capacity within the contiguous 48 states for a very prolonged period. According to the Washington Examiner “Suspected for years of plotting to dismantle the U.S. electric grid, American officials have confirmed that Iranian military brass have endorsed a nuclear electromagnetic pulse explosion that would attack the country’s power system…American defense experts made the discovery while translating a secret Iranian military handbook, raising new concerns about Tehran’s recent nuclear talks with the administration.”

In a column penned in the Israeli news source Arutz Sheva  by Peter Vincent Pry, who served on the CIA’s EMP commission, and cited by Paul Bedard in the U.S. press, it was noted that “Iranian military documents describe such a scenario — including a recently translated Iranian military textbook that endorses nuclear EMP attack against the United States.”

Rep. Trent Franks (R-Az.) believes “The threat of an electromagnetic pulse weapon represents the single greatest asymmetric capability that could fall into the hands of America’s enemies. Should a nuclear weapon from a rogue state such as Iran be detonated in Earth’s atmosphere at a sufficient height above the continental United States, the blast of electromagnetic energy could immediately cripple America’s electric power grid. Currently, the vast majority of the United States’ infrastructure is unsecured and exposed. According to some experts, just one properly placed EMP blast could disable so large a swath of American technology that between 70-90% of the United States’ population could become unsustainable.”

Iran, which may very soon have a nuclear weapon, could deliver it in various ways, including, according to Pry, via a freighter ship off the U.S. east coast.

Iran has additional means to cause havoc on American soil. There have been reports, some cited in Newsmax  that “A top Iranian military leader says the Islamic Republic has terrorist sleeper cells in the United States that are ready to launch attacks on key population ‘centers’ once given the command from Tehran.”

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government has previously reported that several years ago, former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta noted that Tehran was actively developing Latin America as a base for anti-U.S. activities.  He has noted that “We always have a concern about, in particular, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and [their] efforts to expand their influence not only throughout the Middle East but also into this region…that relates to expanding terrorism.” In testimony before Congress in 2012, Southern Command Commander USAF General Douglas Fraser stated “Iran is very engaged in Latin America…they are seeing an opportunity with some of the anti-U.S.-focused countries within the region…”

Rep. Jeff Duncan’s (R-SC) believes that Iran has infiltrated the western hemisphere in order to threaten the United States. He notes that Tehran has:

  • Used its terrorist Hezbollah proxy force in the tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, to gain influence and power;

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  • Built numerous  “cultural centers” and overstaffed embassies to assist its covert goals; and
  • Supported the activities of the terrorist group Hamas in South America.

He reports that Iran is complicit in numerous dangerous unlawful activities in addition to military threats, including drug trafficking, counterfeiting, money laundering, forged travel documents, intellectual property pirating, and providing havens for criminals and other terrorists.

He also noted that sophisticated narco-tunneling techniques used by Hezbollah in Lebanon have been discovered along the U.S.-Mexican border, and Mexican gang members with Iranian-related tattoos have been captured.

Reports have noted Tehran’s growing military presence in the Western hemisphere.  Germany’s Die Welt described the Islamic Republic’s construction of intermediate range missile launch pads on Venezuela’s Paraguana Peninsula.

The Foundry’s Peter Brookes discloses that in return for economic favors, several South American nations, including Venezuela, Brazil, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Ecuador have been supportive of Tehran in diplomatic forums.

The threat is not confined to low-level tactics.  There is mounting concern that both nuclear and ballistic missile threats are emerging from Venezuelan-Iranian cooperation.

The Tehran/Caracas axis, originally encouraged by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, is particularly troubling.  Brookes reported that the two nations have a Memorandum of Understanding “pledging full military support and cooperation that likely increases weapons sales. One could easily see Tehran using Caracas as a stepping off point for attacking U.S. or other (e.g. Israeli) interests in this hemisphere or even the American homeland, especially if action is taken against Iran’s nuclear program.”  Brookes goes on to note that “There is concern that Iran and Venezuela are already cooperating on some nuclear issues.  There have been reports that Iran may be prospecting for uranium ore in Venezuela, which could aid both countries’ nuclear programs, should Caracas proceed…  While still prospective, of course, there is the possibility that Tehran, which has an increasingly capable missile program, could sell or help Caracas develop ballistic missiles capable of reaching American shores.”

He notes that Iran “boasts an increasingly robust paramilitary presence in the region.  The Pentagon, in its 2010 report to Congress on Iran’s military power, noted that the Qods force, the elite paramilitary unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, is now deeply involved in the Americas, stationing ‘operatives in foreign embassies, charities and religious/cultural institutions to foster relationships with people, often building  on socio-economic ties with the well-established Shia Diaspora,’ and even carrying on ‘paramilitary operations to support extremists and destabilize unfriendly regimes.”

Roger F. Noriega, the former ambassador to the Organization of American States and former Assistant Secretary of State, notes that “Iranian officials have made no secret of the regime’s intention to carry its asymmetrical struggle to the streets of the United States and Europe.”

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Quick Analysis

Will Iran attack U.S. forces in the Middle East?

As the Middle East continues its descent into chaos, an overarching concern for western policymakers is the possibility of significant military action by Iran.

The Tehran regime’s “allegedly continuous cargo shipment to Yemen, for example, could potentially lead to the outbreak of military conflict either in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Aden, in particular near the rebel-held Yemeni”, according to the Jamestown Foundation.  “There is also the risk of an increase in proxy wars between Iran and its Sunni Arab regional rivals.”

The Obama Administration has not demonstrated compentence in its handling of Middle Eastern affairs.  Devastating strategic and tactical errors in endorsing the Moslem Brotherhood-led Arab Spring, the failed “Red Line” with Syria, failing to endorse Iran’s “Green Revolution,” it’s ineffectiveness in stopping ISIS, (indeed, its premature withdrawal from Iraq paved the way for the rise of ISIS) the alienation of Israel, the significant error of participating in the overthrow of Libya’s former government which allowed al Qaeda to expand its influence, all point to a historically misguided foreign policy.

Those examples are the reason observers doubt the Administration’s assessment that Iran will neither develop into a nuclear power and/or initiate significant conventional threats against both U.S. and regional forces.

In an interview with Thomas Friedman, President Obama stated that “Iran’s defense budget is $30 billion. Our defense budget is closer to $600 billion,” Obama tells Thomas Friedman. “Iran understands that they cannot fight us.”

The President displays an unfortunate ignorance of history in that response. Asymmetrical warfare tactics have provided victories to theoretically inferior forces from the American Revolution to Vietnam, particularly at a time when the U.S. defense budget is being slashed, American armed forces are a shadow of their Cold War strength, and the nation’s leadership clearly demonstrates a reluctance to engage in ground combat.

It decreases appetite level of user and search engine viagra price usa if they are directed to another page related to the product that no longer exists. You’re online, surfing the information superhighway, and then all purchase generic viagra of a sudden. Mild attack of the pancreatitis can mimic stomach flu, food poisoning, acute dyspepsia, gastritis, acid reflux, IBS, mild heart attack, icks.org purchase cialis online gallbladder stones attack, sphincter of Oddi dysfunction without proper treatment can eventually cause severe complications like pancreatitis and gallbladder inflammation. You can tadalafil 20mg india have a successful intercourse with your partner. Global Research  notes that Iran “…has the ability to deliver major blows which are difficult to counter at larger conventional forces.

“Today IRGCN operates over 1,500 small boats, which can be easily hidden in the coastal zone and do not need a large port to provide supplies. Most of these boats can be or already are equipped with short-range missiles and mines. An unexpected attack of a group of such boats can bring down almost any vessel that dares to enter Iranian waters. Iran’s forces are covered by an extensive network of coastal based anti-ship missiles and air-defense systems….

“Iran tends to keep its military equipment in fair condition, ready to be deployed where and when necessary. This was confirmed during Iran’s regular naval exercises. In many cases Iran used drills to test its new weaponry, such as the Ghadr medium-range ballistic missile. The success of the latest test-launches on January 3 made Iran’s navy chief, Admiral Habibollah Sayyari state that from then on the Strait of Hormuz would be completely in Iran’s control…Iran’s air force operates about 200 combat type aircraft, some 120 transport aircraft, and over 500 helicopters. The list of bases and airports operated by Iran’s military includes 14 tactical air force bases, 18 military air fields, and 22 civil airports that can be used for military purposes… Iran’s naval forces have a total of around 26 submarines, 4 frigates, 3 corvettes, 24 missile patrol craft, 7 mine warfare ships, and over 270 coastal and inshore patrol craft….Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Iran has created armed ballistic missile forces that are capable of striking at any US allies and US bases in the region. It is claimed that Iran has accumulated several thousand short- and medium-range mobile ballistic missiles. Iran’s ballistic missiles could also be configured to carry nuclear warheads if Iran can develop them.”

Iran Intelligence.com reports that”

“Iran has also upgraded its offshore capabilities. In November 2012, the Iranian Navy unveiled two new submarines and two missile-launching warships. Earlier, Iranian officials had said they planned to design nuclear-powered submarines, which could enable the navy to keep the subs on patrol for longer periods and distances.”

It should also be understood that while total U.S. strength is significantly greater than Iran’s, only a portion of that strength is available for use in the Middle East, with extended and potentially vulnerable supply lines far across the planet. Additionally, Iran’s forces are precisely tailored for the region in which fighting would occur, while the American military has global responsibilities.

The next New York Analysis reports will examine the potential of Iran engaging in direct assaults against the American homeland.

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Quick Analysis

Washington’s heavy hand hinders U.S. economy

As the New York Analysis of Policy & Government recently reported, American manufacturing remains in a state of crisis, with less employment in that crucial sector of the economy now than at the start of the Obama presidency. The impact of that issue on the U.S. trade balance is severe.

The most recent releases of the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate a worsening of the trade deficit, with the deficit increasing by a very significant $15.5 billion in the latest survey. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $6.4 billion, or 5.2 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $11.7 billion or 2.0 percent. Imports decreased $5.3 billion or 0.8 percent.

The impact of adverse government actions concerning manufacturing is substantially responsible, although almost all sectors of the economy have been affected.  The Heritage Foundation’s latest “Index of Economic Freedom” noted that “substantial expansion in the size and scope of government, including through new and costly regulations in areas like finance and health care, has contributed significantly to the erosion of U.S. economic freedom.  The growth of government has been accompanied by increasing cronyism that has undermined the rule of law…”

Tax rates play a key role. The National Association of Manufacturers has released a study, “The United States needs a more competitive corporate tax system,” which clearly outlines the problem.

A summary of the report:

The personal information of the customers is kept confidential. viagra cheapest online davidfraymusic.com The sperms of patients with chronic prostatitis tend levitra from canada to show low motility and high mortality. Normal human reproductive health is a common generic cialis professional example of these inhibitors and have been found to be truly effective against erection problems and also provide many health benefits like: Gives deep relaxation to physical and mental health and releases stress and tension. Men with Peyronie’s disease must consult the doctor before taking this pill. buy line viagra “The United States holds the unenviable position of having a higher statutory corporate tax rate than any of our major trading partners—and all OECD [The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] countries. Among 135 nations, the U.S. rate is exceeded only by the United Arab Emirates. While skeptics point to the array of provisions that allow a reduction below the topline statutory rate, many ignore the additional burden created by state and local taxes.

“It is abundantly clear that, when compared to the rest of the developed world, the U.S. rate is out of step at best and uncompetitive at worst. The current global tax system in the United States puts manufacturing firms at a disadvantage inside and outside foreign countries. The current global tax system in the United States puts manufacturing firms at a disadvantage inside and outside foreign countries. If the United States converted to a territorial system as part of comprehensive tax reform, it would remove the current barrier to corporate repatriations (transfers in foreign subsidiaries’ profits to U.S. parent companies), promoting a marked rise in domestic investment. The profits of C corporations (entities taxed separately from their shareholders) are taxed once at the corporate level at the corporate income tax rate and again when the after-tax profit is distributed back to shareholders at personal income tax rates. The already high corporate tax rate, coupled with double taxation of dividends and capital gains, reduces economic efficiency by discouraging capital formation and broader economic growth.

“Currently, the United States is the only country in the G-7 that taxes the active foreign earnings of its companies worldwide. Only four other OECD countries have a worldwide system—Chile, Ireland, South Korea and Mexico. The other 29 have a territorial tax system in which business income earned abroad by foreign subsidiaries is wholly or partially exempt from home country tax. Again, the United States fails to respond to global trends. Fourteen of 34 OECD member countries had a territorial tax system in 2000, increasing to 23 in 2005 and 29 in 2014…

“The Tax Foundation maintains an international tax competitiveness index for the 34 OECD countries. Key principles of tax policy examined in the rating system are the competitiveness of the tax code, its neutrality between consumption and savings and whether it favors one industry over another. On all counts, the United States scores poorly, placing 32 out of 34 in the 2014 index. As outlined above, U.S. corporate tax rates, both statutory and marginal effective, are higher than tax rates in our major trading partners, making it harder for U.S. companies to compete in the global marketplace. Similarly, the U.S. worldwide tax system, an outlier when compared to tax systems in most other developed countries, puts U.S. global companies at a competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis their competitors outside the United States. Converting from a global to a territorial tax system would make U.S. rules more internationally competitive and unlock an estimated $2.1 trillion in stranded profits held abroad by U.S. multinationals. Our tax code is also biased, favoring consumption over saving (through high capital gains and dividends taxes, high estate taxes and high progressive income taxes). Furthermore, double taxation of corporate profits discourages firms from electing the C corporation structure that has wider access to capital markets.”

The continuing problems of slow-to-no growth, and high unemployment particularly in middle-class jobs could be resolved by a lessening of the heavy hand of government in areas such as business regulation and taxation. It is a step urgently required by the American economy.

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Man-made climate change theory challenged

Frequently overlooked in the debate over whether human activity has resulted in global climate change are two key factors: To what extent do current temperature variations differ from those experienced in the past, particularly in pre-industrial times, and, if there is any significant change, to what extent is it due to human activity?

Dr. Philip Lloyd, a physicist researching climate change, has found  that the variation in temperature over the past century is within the planet’s natural variability over the past 8,000 years. Lloyd formerly was a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. His conclusions are the result of ice-core based data.

An abstract of his research, which has also been reported in the Daily Caller, states:

“There has been widespread investigation of the drivers of changes in global temperatures. However, there has been remarkably little consideration of the magnitude of the changes to be expected over a period of a few decades or even a century. To address this question, the Holocene records up to 8000 years before present, from several ice cores were examined. The differences in temperatures between all records which are approximately a century apart were determined, after any trends in the data had been removed. The differences were close to normally distributed. The average standard deviation of temperature was 0.98 ± 0.27 °C. This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations.”

Dr. Philip’s research adds to the growing body of work that contradicts the largely unsupported claims of significant man-made climate change. Highlighting that increasingly large group of scientists disagreeing with the unsupported claims of man-made climate change proponents is the statement by over 9,000 Ph.D’s who, as summarized by Weather Channel founder John Coleman, found that (as quoted in Breitbart)  that “the science [purportedly proving man made global warming] is not valid…“It is important to … know that there is no climate crisis. The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number. Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing). I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid.”
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Repeatedly, the Obama Administration has alleged that the scientific community is virtually unanimous in its support of the man-made climate change theory. The facts simply do not support that claim. Secretary Kerry has stated that addressing the “crippling consequences” of climate change, as supported by “Ninety-seven percent of the world’s scientists…is urgent.” Science fails to support his statement.

The scientific world has been rocked by numerous reports of falsified data engaged to support the man-made change theory, as well as substantial incidents of the suppression of contrary data. Christopher Booker wrote in the Telegraph,

“When future generations look back on the global-warming scare of the past 30 years, nothing will shock them more than the extent to which the official temperature records – on which the entire panic ultimately rested – were systematically “adjusted” to show the Earth as having warmed much more than the actual data justified … Paul Homewood, who, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, had checked the published temperature graphs for three weather stations in Paraguay against the temperatures that had originally been recorded. In each instance, the actual trend of 60 years of data had been dramatically reversed, so that a cooling trend was changed to one that showed a marked warming. This was only the latest of many examples of a practice long recognised by expert observers around the world – one that raises an ever larger question mark over the entire official surface-temperature record.”

The extraordinary political and financial dimensions proposed to counterman-made warming are apparently based on unsound and suspect information.

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The Russian Threat Returns

Moscow has dramatically increased its military budget, and has asserted itself boldly on the world stage.  It does so despite any threat, and that should trouble western policy makers.

Entering into the 21st century, Russia found itself in a generally favorable position. Its former Cold War opponent, the United States, could no longer be counted as an enemy. Indeed, following the rise of Islamic terrorism and the continuance of aggressive Arab regimes, Washington sought the Kremlin’s alliance. NATO, which had substantially slashed spending, was clearly not a problem to be contended with.  Indeed, Russian representatives roamed the halls of the alliance’s headquarters and cooperation  (on the part of NATO)  was the order of the day. In many ways, the global interests of Washington and Moscow appeared to coincide.

During the Obama presidency, American defense spending was sharply reduced, and the New START arms treaty gave, for the first time, a strategic nuclear advantage to Russia, which also held a ten to one advantage in conventional nuclear arms. Mr. Obama essentially conceded to Moscow’s wishes on key issues such as anti-ballistic missile deployment.

Moscow’s major disputes with China were but a memory, and as the new century moved on, the two giant nations grew closer, eventually engaging in joint war games (rather pointedly aimed at the U.S.,) the sharing of military technology, and important economic ties.

Moscow’s economy didn’t depend on or require foreign adventures or territory. With extensive energy resources and a developing economy, friendly, rather than adversarial, relations with other countries were and are far more advantageous.

Despite the lack of enemies or a need for foreign adventures, Russia, under the Putin regime, has essentially returned to the cold war, aggressive, and militaristic policies of the Soviet Union, an entity who’s passing the former KGB official clearly regrets.

Therein lays the only logical explanation for the Kremlin’s budget-busting military buildup.  Unlike a standard democracy, where the financial well-being of the voters is paramount, Putin, through both Soviet-style intimidations of his domestic political opponents and an appeal to nostalgia for the days when the Kremlin’s armed might made the world tremble, can and has ignored that standard concern of even pseudo-representative governments. He is free to pursue his goal of restoring the U.S.S.R., despite the costs and lack of benefit to his people.
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The burden on Russia’s economy is increasingly clear. As noted by Stratfor, “Russia is entering its second recession in six years. The economy began slowing in 2013, but the combination of sanctions from the West, soured investment sentiment toward Russia and low oil prices has hastened its decline. In January, the Kremlin slashed the 2015 [civilian] budget by 10 percent across the board — except for defense — but even with that cut Russia still faces a $54 billion deficit this year…missing from the discussions and leaks is any mention of cutting defense spending. In fact, the original 2015 budget expanded defense spending by 20 percent, then revised it to just a 10 percent expansion from 2014 levels… Currently Russia spends 4.8 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, up from 3.5 percent in 2014. This is more than double what NATO guidelines say members should spend on defense… Russian economists and financial analysts openly criticizing the Kremlin’s decision on defense spending are pressured or silenced.”

During the same time that the U.S. defense budget was sharply reduced, and without the existence of any credible threat, Russia’s defense budget was hiked  by over 30%. The spending spree is expected to continue as the Kremlin looks to fulfill President Putin’s massive additional $722 billion additional investments in armaments.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies  contrasts Moscow’s buildup with Europe’s continuing decline in military strength: “Military modernisation in Russia is continuing, with investment in new ships, combat aircraft and guided weapons. Russia continues to test the Sukhoi T-50 fifth generation fighter aircraft, and may be finalising designs of a new long-range bomber. Russia has nuclear weapons very much at the centre of its military strategy, and there is increased emphasis on its rapid-reaction forces, while its air and maritime capabilities are often being deployed provocatively. Overall, Europe is facing a more belligerent Russia that appears intent on testing the resolve of the West….European defence spending continued the decline seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and was in 2014 cumulatively 8% lower, in real terms, than in 2010. There were signs that the more challenging strategic environment was shifting budgetary priorities, particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe, and amid unease about possible gaps in NATO’s capacity to counter Russia’s use of hybrid warfare techniques. However, defence allocations in Europe’s leading military players maintained their downward slide.

“Military equipment across the continent also continued to reduce, with policymakers focusing instead on the advanced capabilities of future kit. Numbers have declined substantially since the Cold War. Between 1995 and 2015, main battle tank numbers in Europe dropped from around 25,000 to just under 8,000, while fighters and ground attack aircraft decreased from 5,400 to 2,400.”

The Council on Foreign Relations  comparison of Russian and European military strength illuminates the contrast. “the Russian armed forces are in the midst of a historic overhaul with significant consequences for Eurasian politics and security. Russian officials say the reforms are necessary to bring a Cold War-era military into the twenty-first century, but many Western analysts fear they will enable Moscow to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, often relying on force to coerce its weaker neighbors… Both in terms of troops and weapons, Russian conventional forces dwarf those of its Eastern European and Central Asian neighbors…, many of which are relatively weak ex-Soviet republics closely allied with Moscow. Russia has a military pact with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, formed in 1992. Moscow also stations troops in the region: Armenia (3,300), Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (7,000), Moldova’s separatist Transnistria region (1,500), Kyrgyzstan (500), Tajikistan (5,000), and Crimea (20,000)… Moscow is intent on remilitarizing its Arctic territory and is restoring Soviet-era airfields and ports to help protect important hydrocarbon resources and shipping lanes. (Russia has the world’s largest fleet of icebreakers, which are regularly required to navigate these waters.) In late 2013, Putin ordered the creation of a new strategic military command in the Russian Arctic.”

Policy makers in the United States and Europe continue to construct their defense and diplomatic strategies regarding Russia not as reality would suggest, but as they wish the facts were. That further strengthens Putin’s hand and encourages further militarization and adventurism on his part.