Author: Daria Novak

Almost every article on Russian foreign policy this week begins with questions about Vladimir Putin’s aggressive military moves near Ukraine this month. Perhaps there is a more significant question to be posed and analyzed by military planners? Where and when does it all end? In the first war of the 21^st century in August 2008 the Georgian government formally declared the strategically important Abkhazia and South Ossetia areas “Russian occupied territories.” The regions are located inside the sovereign nation-state of Georgia. Today Russia has five permanent bases and 5,000 soldiers of its occupying force still stationed there. In 2014, again under Putin’s command, Russia annexed Crimea and supported Ukrainian separatists in the Donbas and Luhansk regions in the eastern part of the country. This week, after months of threatening military behavior near Ukraine, Putin formally recognized the two occupied areas as independent states, thus providing him the pretext needed to support future moves against the Ukrainian government. This probably is not Putin’s last conquest but only one operation in a grander plan. 

In an unusual Twitter video message first posted February 17, the British Ministry of Defense also warned in the social media report that at least half of the Russian military’s ground combat units have now encircled much of Ukraine. It goes on to describes this as “the largest gathering of Russian troops” anywhere in the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In a similar move in Washington, IntelNews reports that American intelligence agencies were instructed by the White House to release raw intelligence on Russian military activities directly to the public. Pavel Beav, of the Jamestown Foundation, says that “The poor organization of the Donbas evacuation shows that the war-planners in Moscow added this feint at the last moment, probably in response to the preventive exposure of their ‘false flag operations’ by the United States’ intelligence services.” The effort appears to have been a temporary inconvenience. 

According to the British paper, The Guardian, Western spy agencies are attempting to use their intelligence information to shape the narrative about the crisis in Ukraine, before Moscow is able to use its formidable disinformation capabilities to set the agenda. Although Moscow is denying its existence, Washington is pointing out this week that Putin has developed a so-called “Kill/Capture List” not only for Ukrainian government officials, journalists, and anti-Russian activists, but also a similar list for Belarusians. 

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) includes a little-known intelligence unit, known as the Service for Operational Information and International Communications—or the Fifth Service. It was created in 1992, according to Baev, to “fill the vacuum left by a host of no-spy agreements, which were signed between Moscow and the governments of former Soviet Republics.” It has dramatically expanded Russia’s foreign spying operations since then and today includes over 200 officers assigned to work solely on Ukraine. It is headed by a close Putin ally, Sergei Beseda, who is a colonel general in the FSB. Putin’s Fifth Service is capable of creating mini-coups inside Ukraine’s major cities and long-term planning.

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Although both London and Washington are trying to thwart Putin’s current propaganda campaign, they are amateurs playing with a master KGB-trained strategist who is continuing his game plan almost unimpeded. He is making deliberate and calculated moves to advance Russia toward his long-term goal. For many years Putin has spoken publicly about his intention to create and head a new Russian empire. It should come as no surprise to the West. 

This analyst believes that Georgia, Crimea, and now Ukraine, are only the opening moves on a much larger gameboard than Ukraine. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have met over 30 times for “important” discussions. Although they share some historical mistrust of each other and the relationship today is based on convenience, it should be noted that Chinese intelligence agents are collaborating closely with Russian agents inside Ukraine. 

Last year in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, a Chinese spy was apprehended for attempting to steal military technology. Among other items, this city produces tank engines and military hardware, including the Ukrainian T-80UD tank engine that China buys to supply to Pakistan for use in that country’s Al-Khalid tanks. Putin knows China is very interested in what else Ukraine’s military-industrial complex can offer. The Russian president needs to remain relevant to the rising Chinese state over the coming decade. That will require collaboration between the two. Ukraine is not only about creating a buffer zone for Russia. It is part of a more complex and darker plan conceived in the halls of the Kremlin and designed to move Putin closer to his end goal. I ask again: Where and when does it all end?

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department

The First Amendment to the US Constitution enumerates some of our most cherished freedoms:  “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.”   

It is no accident that the first freedom described is the freedom of religion. “Our country’s founders — who were of different religious backgrounds themselves — knew the best way to protect religious liberty was to keep the government out of religion…The Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment gives you the right to worship or not as you choose. The government can’t penalize you because of your religious beliefs.” 

In its recent decision, Biden v. Missouri, the Supreme Court decided that the Secretary of Health and Human Services had the power, delegated to him by Congress, to require healthcare workers to submit to a Covid-19 vaccine. The court specifically noted that “the Secretary announced that, in order to receive Medicare and Medicaid funding, participating facilities must ensure that their staff—unless exempt for medical or religious reasons—are vaccinated against COVID–19.” (Emphasis added.)

In keeping with the First Amendment, the exemption for medical or religious reasons to the vaccine mandate is no small matter.  In September of 2021, we examined the ability of private employers to require Covid-19 vaccines for their employees.  We cited to “Dorit Reiss, a law professor at the University of California, Hastings, who specializes in legal and policy issues related to vaccines.  Reiss said that if employees have medical reasons or sincerely held religious beliefs that prevent them from receiving a vaccine, employers may be required to give the workers a reasonable alternative to continue to work.”

We also noted the following: “Employers that encourage or require vaccinations…must comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and other workplace laws, according to the EEOC (Equal Employment Opportunity Commission)…Title VII requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s sincerely held religious belief, practice or observance, unless it would cause an undue hardship on the business… (t)he definition of religion is broad and protects religious beliefs and practices that may be unfamiliar to the employer. Therefore, the employer ‘should ordinarily assume that an employee’s request for religious accommodation is based on a sincerely held religious belief,’ according to the EEOC. ‘ However, if an employee requests a religious accommodation, and an employer is aware of facts that provide an objective basis for questioning either the religious nature or the sincerity of a particular belief, practice or observance, the employer would be justified in requesting additional supporting information.”

As a Catholic himself, Joe Biden should know that many Catholics have a sincerely held objection to the Covid-19 vaccination.  “While no covid-19 vaccine contains human tissue of any kind, the Johnson and Johnson vaccine’s manufacturing process used cell lines derived from elective abortions performed decades ago. Other vaccines being used in the US, such as those from Pfizer and Moderna, used these cell lines in testing their vaccines but not in production. This distinction led the archdiocese of New Orleans to call the Johnson and Johnson vaccine ‘morally compromised.’ The vaccine ‘should not be accepted by Catholics if other choices are available,’ agreed Pennsylvania bishop Alfred Schlert.”  Further, “Jehovah’s Witnesses base their beliefs on the Bible, which they regard as the inspired, inerrant Word of God… In contrast to many Christian denominations, the Witnesses did not create their own healthcare institutions. According to the Watch Tower Society, they were not to operate hospitals and clinics; the world’s time was ‘too short.’ Clayton J. Woodworth, the editor of The Golden Age and Consolation magazines, was influential in this area: he regarded the American Medical Association as ‘an institution founded on ignorance, error, and superstition,’ denied the germ theory of disease, attacked the use of vaccination as a violation of God’s law, and regarded the use of aluminum cookware as dangerous to health…” 

“The only Christian denominations who cite a theological reason for opposing vaccines are the Dutch Reformed Church and Church of Christ, Scientist,…Some members of the Dutch Reformed Church decline vaccines because it ‘interferes with divine providence,’ while others accept it as a gift from God…Denominations that believe in faith healing, or laying hands on people in order to heal their illnesses, also likely don’t believe in vaccines… Church of Christ, Scientist, teaches that prayer will alleviate and prevent disease, so members may request vaccine exemptions…”

Recently, the federal government has become interested in who asserts a religious objection to receiving the Covid-19 vaccine.  As described by the Federalist, A federal agency debuted a new system on Tuesday designed to record and store the information of federal employees who requested religious exemptions from the Biden administration’s federal jab mandate…the Pretrial Services Agency for the District of Columbia, an independent federal agency designed to aid Washington D.C. courts, created the ‘Employee Religious Exception Request Information System’ to track unvaccinated employees who ask for religious exemptions from President Joe Biden’s federal COVID-19 shot mandate.” 

What could be the purpose of such a list?  According to the Federal Register, “The primary purpose of the secured electronic file repository is to collect, maintain, use, and—to the extent appropriate and necessary—disseminate employee religious exception request information collected by the Agency in the context of the federally mandated COVID-19 vaccination requirement… PSA will use the information in processing religious accommodation requests and to determine the appropriate health and safety protocols for employees in the context of the federally mandated COVID-19 vaccination.”

As noted by the Daily Signal, “In other words, the list will help the agency make a list. The announcement also does not say what the agency will do with this information after it has decided an employee’s religious accommodation request…What’s really going on with this announcement at this tiny agency? Likely, the Biden administration is using it to stealth test a policy it intends to roll out across the whole government.”

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What would be the purpose of such a policy?  There doesn’t seem to be a similar list for people asserting medical exemptions.  Why would any federal agency need a list of people who have requested religious exemptions – a list that is meant to be shared?

One hint at the answer comes from the US Navy’s experience with both medical and religious exemption requests. As of November, 2021, “The Navy has not yet approved any religious exemptions for the COVID-19 (vaccine)…There were 2,531 requests for religious exemptions, according to the Navy. However, the Navy has not adjudicated all of the request(s)…Exemptions are being handled on a case by case basis…Some sailors have already found out if their request has been denied, while others are still waiting. Those who were denied a religious exemption now have five days, from when they were notified, to start the vaccination process or they face separation..The Navy also issued seven permanent medical exemptions, 400 temporary medical exemptions and 134 administrative exemptions, according to the Navy…six more medical exemptions (are) pending…”

Clearly, the Navy is not in any rush to give anyone their requested religious exemption any time soon.  But a group of Navy SEALS who were denied their requested religious exemptions fought back;  “Judge Reed O’Connor of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas…granted an injunction against the Biden administration and the Department of Defense, preventing them from enforcing the vaccine mandate against any of the named service members who had applied for a religious exemption. O’Connor ruled that the blanket denial of their religious waiver requests amounted to a violation of the service members’ rights under the First Amendment…” 

As the Court wrote in its opinion, “The Navy provides a religious accommodation process, but by all accounts, it is theater. The Navy has not granted a religious exemption to any vaccine in recent memory. It merely rubber stamps each denial. The Navy servicemembers in this case seek to vindicate the very freedoms they have sacrificed so much to protect. The COVID-19 pandemic provides the government no license to abrogate those freedoms. There is no COVID-19 exception to the First Amendment. There is no military exclusion from our Constitution…”

Having failed to stonewall religious exemption requests, the Biden Administration has turned to another, more subtle tactic – make a list of those who have offended them.  What will Biden do with this new enemies list? Only time will tell.  But who else do we know who made lists of their opponents?

“In 1934, Ivan Nosov appeared in a photo in Pravda, gazing rapt as his friend Joseph Stalin addressed the 17th Party Congress. In 1937, Stalin scribbled “za” (“I approve”) on a list condemning Nosov to death. Nosov is one of 44,500 names that appear in ‘Stalin’s Shooting Lists,’ a disk issued…by the human rights organization Memorial…Around 720,000 people were shot during Stalin’s purges of 1937 and 1938. Many were simply tried and summarily executed by ‘troikas’ (closed military tribunals) or other bodies run by the secret police. But around 44,000 had their sentences personally approved by Stalin and his closest henchmen. Stalin’s initials, scribbled in bright red pencil, appear on 357 lists.”

No one is seriously asserting that Biden is compiling an enemies list with the intention of having people who request a religious exemption shot.  But consider also that such extreme measures are not necessary.  Why have those who do not cooperate killed, when you can simply deny them employment?

Judge John Wilson served on the bench in New York City

Illustration: Pixabay

Remember when then-President Trump was interviewed by Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes in October of 2020?  If so, maybe you remember this exchange: 

“President Donald Trump: …(t)he biggest scandal was when they spied on my campaign. They spied on my campaign, Lesley-

Lesley Stahl: Well, there’s no– real evidence of that.

President Donald Trump: Of course there is. It’s all over…the place. Lesley, they…spied on my campaign and they got caught–

Lesley Stahl: Can I– can I say something? You know, this is 60 Minutes. And we can’t put on things we can’t verify–

President Donald Trump: No, you won’t put it on because it’s bad for Biden.”

Well, guess what?  Trump was right.  “They” did spy on his campaign.  Further, Stahl was wrong.  There is “real evidence” for the former President’s allegations.

Who, you may ask, is the “they” who spied on the Trump campaign?  According to Special Counsel John Durham, “they” is two people affiliated with the Hillary Clinton Campaign.

In September of 2021, Durham brought a federal indictment against  “Michael A. Sussmann, 57, a Washington, D.C.-based attorney, with making a false statement to the FBI on Sept. 19, 2016… Sussman, a lawyer at a large international law firm, met with the FBI General Counsel at FBI Headquarters in Washington, D.C. Sussmann had requested the meeting to provide the General Counsel with certain data files…that allegedly demonstrated a covert communications channel between the Trump Organization and a Russia-based bank. Sussmann, who had previously represented the Democratic National Committee in connection with a cyber hack, falsely stated to the General Counsel that he was not bringing these allegations to the FBI on behalf of any client. This false representation led the General Counsel to understand that Sussmann was providing information as a good citizen rather than a paid advocate or political operative. In fact, Sussmann assembled and conveyed the allegations to the FBI on behalf of at least two clients, including a U.S. technology executive and the Clinton Presidential Campaign.

“Sussmann worked with the aforementioned U.S. technology executive, other cyber researchers, and a U.S.-based investigative firm to assemble the data…that Sussmann ultimately provided to the FBI and the media. The technology executive, for his part, exploited his access to non-public data at multiple internet companies and enlisted the assistance of researchers at a U.S.-based university…(t)he indictment further alleges that (these) researchers were tasked to mine this internet data to establish ‘an inference’ and ‘narrative’ that would tie then-presidential candidate Donald Trump to Russia…(t)he indictment also alleges that Sussmann, his law firm, and the technology executive coordinated with representatives and agents of the Clinton Campaign in these efforts.”

That previously unnamed “technology executive” has now been identified, according to the National Review; “In a court submission last week, Durham alleged that a tech executive, who was supposed to be helping the government combat cyber threats, used his privileged access to Internet data…to mine contacts between Russia and facilities connected to Donald Trump. The information, Durham says, was taken out of context and distorted to suggest that Trump might be a clandestine agent of Vladimir Putin’s regime. Alarmingly, some of the Internet traffic mined in early 2017 was generated by the Executive Office of the President — the White House. That is, the tech executive, who has been identified as Rodney Joffe, was monitoring then-President Trump, trying to portray him as Putin’s mole…

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“Joffe was a Clinton supporter who was hoping to land a big national-security post if Hillary Clinton were elected president in 2016. Joffe and the Clinton campaign got their lawyer, Michael Sussmann, to communicate this ‘intelligence’ about a corrupt Trump–Russia relationship to government intelligence agencies in the hopes that they would take action against Trump. Sussmann, a former Justice Department cyber-security prosecutor, was then a partner at Perkins Coie, the politically connected law firm that represented the Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign.

“Last year, Durham indicted Sussmann for lying to the FBI to conceal that he was working for the Clinton campaign and Joffe when he conveyed the information to James Baker, who was then the Bureau’s top lawyer (and an old acquaintance of Sussmann’s).”  

The identity of the tech executive is only part of the story.  This https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/durhams-jaw-dropping-revelation/“revelation by Durham indicates that, even after Sussmann delivered information to the FBI during the 2016 presidential campaign, Joffe continued to scrutinize Trump-connected Internet traffic.”   

In other words, Joffe used his tech skills and access to gather information, information that was taken out of context and even manipulated, then gave that information to Sussmann, who then turned it over to the FBI.  Joffe gathered this information hoping for a position in a Hillary Clinton Administration, and Sussmann passed it on to his contact at the FBI in his capacity as a representative of both Joffe and the Clinton Campaign.  Both Sussmann and Joffe intended to foster the image of the Trump campaign, and the Trump Administration, as working on behalf of the Russian government.

Sussmann’s alleged crime was lying to his contact at the FBI about his status.  Rather than admit he was working on behalf of Joffe and the Clinton Campaign, Sussmann claimed to be “a good citizen, rather than a paid advocate.” 

You may further recall that much of the media was obsessed for the majority of 2017 thru 2019 with “Russian collusion” – that is, the allegation that President Trump’s campaign had been working as a tool of Russian state agents. In particular, MSNBC host Rachel Maddow “covered the story with a consistent breathlessness…(s)he worried in March 2017 that the Russians had not just stolen the election, but our government: ‘We are also starting to see what may be signs of continuing influence in our country. Not just during the campaign, but during the administration. Basically signs what could be a continuing operation’…(n)o matter how alarming all this was, there was always an underlying sense of glee in Maddow’s coverage, the bastards were finally getting their due, the whole treacherous plot steadily coming undone via Robert Mueller’s investigation and the brilliant, long-form explications of it by America’s champion at 9 p.m.”   

Ah yes, the Mueller Report.  Did Special Counsel Robert Mueller find Russian Collusion between the Trump Campaign and the Russian government?  As we reported back in June of 2019, “It is well known that one of the major findings of the Report is that ‘the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.’”

Now that Special Counsel Durham has revealed the real source of the “Russian Collusion” allegations, will Maddow report the truth?  Don’t hold your breath – In September, when Michael Sussman was indicted, “MSNBC star Rachel Maddow appeared widely dismissive of the latest indictment from Special Counsel John Durham’s probe looking into the origins of the Russia investigation…’So what that apparently leaves Durham with is a lawyer who gave the FBI some information he says he thought they should have. The FBI chased that down and decided, ‘eh, it’s probably nothing.’ And maybe that lawyer- there’s some question as to whether he fully revealed who he was representing at that time? Does it matter who he was representing at the time?’ Maddow asked.” 

Yes, Rachel, it does matter. An attorney misrepresented to a government law enforcement agency that he was acting on behalf of a political campaign and someone hoping to get a job with that candidate’s incoming administration. That lawyer’s client used his access to selectively gather and manipulate data to make the Trump Campaign look like traitors.  That client continued to use his access to gather and manipulate data after the election in an effort to make the Trump Administration look like traitors.

In what world does that NOT matter?

Judge John Wilson served on the bench in NYC.

2021 was a year fraught with disappointment. There was, prior to its commencement, a reasonable expectation of optimistic outcomes.

 The Trump Administration had, in record time, produced a vaccine that attacked COVID. It had achieved, for the first time in decades, American energy independence. The economy was, before the pandemic hit, booming, and the path to returning to unparalleled prosperity afterwards was evident. The labor force participation rate had reached levels not seen in over half a century. For black and Latino workers, unemployment was at record lows. Peace in the Middle East was blossoming. North Korea, which prior to 2017, had been at the brink of war, had calmed down.

There were challenges, of course.  Progressive-inspired riots by BLM and Antifa plagued the nation. Iran continued with its nuclear program. Leftist District Attorneys, supported by blue-state legislation such as bail reform and underfunded police departments, allowed crime to flourish within their jurisdictions.

The national descent that occurred following the Biden inauguration was, in its breadth and depth, devastating and indeed unnecessary.

The shutdown of the Keystone XL pipeline, and other assaults on energy production was irrational, particularly since all it did was increase reliance to nations that were in some cases either not friendly or downright hostile to the West.

During the 2020 presidential campaign, Progressives produced innuendos that the COVID vaccine was somehow unsafe, particularly for minority voters. That left many to refuse to take the preventative shot, a problem still prevalent in poor communities.

The threat of increased regulation, higher taxes, and a White House hostile to free enterprise worked as a heavy weight on an economy that should have snapped back following the conclusion of the worst of the pandemic.

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The new president’s apparent weakness has led to Russian, Chinese, and terrorist adventurism, much as it had during the Obama-Biden era.

On the southern border, the White House’s words and deeds encouraged massive illegal immigration, including individuals connected to criminal drug and human trafficking cartels, as well as people infected with COVID.  The dilemma was compounded by unannounced, nighttime flights spreading these folks across the nation.

The utterly botched withdrawal from Afghanistan served as served as an example of the Biden Administration’s penchant for unnecessary tragedy.  Both Democrats and Republicans supported the concept of ending America’s participation in the conflict, but envisioned both an orderly retreat as well as the strategically vital necessity of leaving a small residual force, presumably at the Bagram Air Force Base, a particularly strong base.  Biden repeated the identical mistake he made as vice president, when, as the Obama Administration’s point man on the Middle East, he hastily and totally withdrew all U.S. forces from Iraq without a residual force.  This disastrous error directly led to the establishment of the ISIS Caliphate, which the subsequent Trump Administration had to deal with, fortunately, with great success. In an inexplicable act of immorality, Biden failed to evacuate many Americans and American supporters before his unseemly exit. Adding to the tragedy was the absurd failure to withdraw a fortune in military equipment, providing a windfall of arms to the very organization that were responsible for the attacks of September 11, 2001.

There is a central theme to these domestic, economic, and foreign policy missteps. All Administrations make errors of judgement and strategy when under pressure. But the Biden White House was under no such compulsion. It enjoyed an exceptionally friendly media, and its party controlled both houses of Congress. America’s robust energy production was an exceptional asset. Other than the ravages of COVID, the economy was fundamentally strong. Illegal immigration had been sharply reduced through successful policies. The military had been revitalized.

These benefits were rapidly dismantled by ineptness, stubbornness, and an excess of partisanship.

Illustration: Pixabay

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III comments at News Conference With Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak

[T]heimperialistic policy of the Russian Federation requires from us and all the allies’ complex activities and complex deterrence and defense. We have welcomed additional U.S. troops in Poland that reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. There are also, in Poland, we have additional British soldiers this way. We give them support and we will cooperate with them as long as it is necessary.

Poland and the United States have developed a special bond in the defense of liberty, and soon after World War I, American volunteer aviators provided air cover for Polish forces fighting for their own country’s independence. More recently, Polish and American soldiers fought and died together in Iraq and in — in Afghanistan against common threats to our security, and today, our relationship could not be stronger.

I’d like to thank Poland for regularly hosting more than 4,000 enduring rotational U.S. military personnel. It’s the fourth-largest concentration of U.S. forces in Europe. And of course, in light of Russian force buildup near Ukraine, we appreciate Poland for hosting an additional 4,700 U.S. soldiers who are prepared to respond to a range of contingency, and they will work closely with our State Department and with Polish authorities, should there be any need to help American citizens leave Ukraine.

Under the 2020 Enhanced Defense Corporation Agreement signed by our two countries, Poland strongly contributes to these deployments by providing facilities and logistical resources, which we truly appreciate.

We’re also partners in developing Poland’s defense capabilities. Poland has chosen the F-35 fighter aircraft, and Poland air defense batteries and — excuse me — Patriot air defense batteries and high-mobility artillery rocket systems.

Today, I’m proud to announce another step in this growing partnership. In response to Poland’s formal request in July of 2021, Secretary Brink — Blinken and I have relayed our intent to Congress to offer Poland the opportunity to acquire 250 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks. The timeframe for delivery of these tanks is currently under discussion. This is the most modern version of the Abrams, and will provide Poland with a highly-advanced tank capability. It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of other NATO allies.

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We commend Poland for consistently meeting NATO spending and defense investment targets and together, we will continue to modernize our defense capabilities. This procurement by Poland will also help to ensure a more equitable sharing of responsibilities within the alliance for our common defense, and our joint exercises in Poland and the Baltic states will continue to demonstrate our readiness to defend our — to defend our eastern-most allies.

Europe is now facing challenges to international peace and stability. For one, Belarusian — or Belarusian President Lukashenko continues to cruelly promote the force migration of thousands of displaced persons from the Middle East to Poland and the rest of Europe — of — of the European Union. And Poland’s neighbor, Ukraine, is under the threat of another Russian invasion, which was the focus of our discussion this morning.

Any Russian attack or further incursion into Ukraine would night — not only ignite conflict, it would also violate the bedrock principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination. The deployment of thousands of Russian forces in Belarus, in addition to the thousands surrounding Ukraine to the east and south puts some of those forces within 200 miles of the Polish border. If Russia further invades Ukraine, Poland could see tens of thousands of displaced Ukrainians and others flowing across its border, trying to save themselves and their families from the scourge of war.

To be clear, as I said yesterday in Brussels, there is still time and space for diplomacy. United steps — the United States, in lockstep with our allies and partners, including Poland, has offered Mr. Putin a path away from crisis and towards greater security. Whatever path he chooses, the United States and our allies and our partners will be ready.

Poland knows firsthand the steep cost paid by victims of aggression from larger neighbors, and it has made — made valuable contributions to assist Ukraine in building up its defense capabilities. This includes joint training exercises and hosting a trilateral brigade composed of Polish, Ukrainian and Lithuanian soldiers, as well as Poland’s recent offer of ammunition and portable air defense weapons to Ukraine.

The United States also continues to move material assistance to Ukraine to help the Ukrainians defend themselves. Fortunately, neither Poland or the United States are alone in dealing with this challenge. As you’ve heard over the last few days during the NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels, the entire alliance stands with Ukraine in supporting its sovereignty, its territorial integrity and its right to choose its own path in its relations with its neighbors and the rest of the world. You know, it’s ironic that what Mr. Putin did not want to see happen was a stronger NATO on his flank, and that’s exactly what he will see going forward.

Poland and the United States, in solidarity with our allies, will continue to work together to overcome any challenge to European peace and stability and any future challenges to come.

Is the Chinese economy more fragile than we are led to believe by the Biden Administration? In 2022 President Xi Jinping seems intent on China’s becoming more state centered and less market oriented under its current economic plan. A revised trade strategy has involved the United States working with other major economies to negotiate new rules for dealing with China. However, the most advanced effort to date is not centered in Washington but is being worked on in the European Union, including through the Trade and Technology Council. The Biden Administration has not enforced the previous administration’s China trade deal. 

Since its signing, the world has experienced the associated dislocations of the Covid pandemic, including Chinese factories behind schedules and shipping constraints. Chinese contract law often points to the “spirit of mutual respect” for enforcement of an agreement vs. unchanging written facts, such as delivery dates and amounts of goods sold, found in a Western style agreement. For China, the Trump trade deal met with an “unforeseeable event outside the control of the parties…” that delayed “a party from timely complying with its obligations.” Therefore, no agreement was broken.

On January 15, 2020, China and the United States signed “Phase 1” of President Trump’s trade bill in which China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion in American exports by the end of 2021. The deal failed. The media has downplayed China’s broken promise and has instead focused more on the sensationalism of the Olympic scandals. The trade agreement’s only real accomplishment was to stem the spiraling trade wars between the two nations. It failed to offset uncertainty over restarting US investment in American exports. According to a trade tracker used by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), “Ultimately, China bought only 57 percent of the US exports it committed to purchase over 2020–21. US exports of covered goods and services to China over the two years were $288.8 billion.” In 2020–21, PIIE said China fell $13.6 billion short of reaching even the baseline level of purchases, although the Biden Administration complained that China was holding back sales, including aircraft, engines, and parts. One area of US trade that did expand dramatically was the exports of American made medical supplies used to treat Covid. Under the Trump trade deal, US farm exports did get back to 2017 levels and ultimately reached 83 percent of the 2020–21 commitment. 

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The big question is whether the United States can coerce China to comply with the Trump trade agreement. A Biden Administration official earlier this week called it a “living agreement,” a term most likely well-received in Beijing and much less so by the US business community. Chad Bown of PIIE noted that the United States did not publish clear monthly data on services exports, making Beijing’s progress difficult to evaluate. The Biden Administration inherited a deal requiring a strong political leader with the will power to enforce the mechanism to make it work. To date, the Biden Administration has shown little leadership in this area and is instead continues “recalibrating” its effort. Bloomberg Business recently quoted Kelly Ann Shaw, who served as deputy assistant to the president for international economic affairs in the Trump Administration as saying “To make progress on structural issues, the administration needs to be prepared to offer China something it wants—or threaten something it doesn’t.” For a coercion, or a threat, to make it must be believed. If China looks westward toward President Biden’s weak handling of the crisis in Ukraine, Beijing may not see a need to change its behavior. When an unnamed Biden trade official attempted to call his counterpart in Beijing, the Chinese official simply refused to take the call. A Biden trade official called it “unfair.” That about sums up the Chinese response to the US “recalibration.”

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept., and specialized in China.

Illustration: Shanghai skyline (Pixabay)

Political analysts in Washington sounded much like the old commercial that asks “Is it real or is it Memorex” when it came to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, answers from the White House and State Department ranged from its “imminent” to “we aren’t sure.” Wednesday morning Secretary of State Antony Blinken responded to a journalist’s question about Russia’s claim to be drawing back some of its troops stationed along the border with Ukraine by saying “…unfortunately there’s a difference between what Russia says and what it does, and what we’re seeing is no meaningful pullback… we continue to see forces, especially forces that would be in the vanguard of any renewed aggression against Ukraine, continuing to be at the border, to mass at the border.” In a follow up question, a reporter pointed out that the Administration suggested an invasion could “actually come today [Wed.].” Blinken backed off responding: “He can pull the trigger. He could pull it today, he could pull it tomorrow, he could pull it next week.” Is it real or is Putin raising brinksmanship to a level unseen since the Cuban missile crisis?

Opinions from seasoned American intelligence operatives who worked inside Russia may provide a better perspective of the specific “ground facts” than those coming from inside the Biden Administration and potential explanations for Putin’s aggressive behavior. For months he has been forward positioning troops and materiel along the border areas with Ukraine. Some troops have been moved West from the Eastern District in Siberia that add to a total of over 100,000 military personnel. Recently, Russia held a large-scale exercise with Belarus, a nation-state allied with Russia on Ukraine’s northern border. Belarus has cautiously offered Putin its empty nuclear silos, which it has maintained since the end of the Cold War, in a move that could escalate the threat level. Russian propaganda, misinformation, and disinformation is actively attempting to alter the narrative to infer the West is provoking Russia to respond to a threat to it national security. 

Historically, Putin has a record of invading border states. In August 2008 he sent troops into South Ossetia and the Abkhazia regions in Georgia and has occupied those territories since that time. Their capture prevents Georgia from consideration for NATO membership according to its Charter. In 2014 Putin annexed Crimea and aided separatist forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts belonging to Ukraine. They remain under partial Russian control, again preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. If preventing former Warsaw Pact states from joining NATO is the only reason behind Putin’s moves, then why the need to make further moves against Ukraine?

Examining the psychology behind Putin… the man, the KGB operative, and autocratic political leader… may help provide answers. Several intelligence analysts suggest that Putin simply can’t accept an independent Ukraine and his increasingly manipulative style has backed him into a corner. Another former CIA operative with experience in Moscow pointed out that at this juncture in his life Putin is looking at building his legacy as a Russian leader who reconstituted the Russian Empire and regained an equal seat at the table alongside other world leaders. Putin is very adept at knowing how far he can push before breaching the threshold that requires a response from other states and international institutions, such as NATO. 

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Politically, hardliners inside Russia including many in the military, SRV (non-military foreign intelligence agency), FSB (successor of Soviet era KGB), and the Russian National Security Council support the proposition that it is the United States’ intention to disaggregate Russia into its component parts and then slice off Siberia. This is the antithesis of the goals Putin often speaks of in formal speeches. By the early 2000’s the most extreme hardliners were influencing Putin’s inner circle. They wanted the Russian leader to take all of Ukraine and more by force. In 2014 they found partial satisfaction in the annexation of eastern Ukraine, but it also created new problems for Moscow as Kiev moved further into the West’s sphere of influence. One senior analyst points to Putin’s paranoia about security arguing that it will be hard for Putin to conduct war with over a million Russians dead from COVID and his upcoming 2024 election… but that he is willing to do more than most leaders to avoid a bad outcome. Another analyst argues that Putin had made no concessions and simply is extorting the West, like a school yard bully. Psychologically, Putin’s psyche is comfortable getting away with as much as possible. He played hardball in 2008 in Georgia and 2014 in Ukraine without suffering any significant consequences. In fact, he emerged stronger after each military action. 

Will Putin again act out again this week? Or, next? The consensus in the intelligence community appears to agree that it rests not on Putin’s willingness to intimidate, that is built into him, but on the unified strength of the Western alliance and, specifically, the Biden Administration’s response to Putin’s provocation. Recently, in an unusual move for Washington, the White House exposed some of Putin’s propaganda moves in advance. It may have thrown the Russian leader off his game. The remaining question is – was it enough push back to force Putin back down. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Photo: Ukraine Defence Ministry

Germany is Europe’s major financial power. Does it side with its continental partners, or with their adversaries? The issue has taken on new urgency as Berlin looks to Moscow for its energy supplies.

The German economy is the largest in the European Union, and the fourth largest in the world. It has the resources and capacity to play a major role in support of western ideals and defense, but fails to do so.

Despite its enormous financial and industrial clout, and having benefited from having U.S. taxpayers fund much of its defense needs for an extensive period of time, the question of Berlin’s loyalty to the west is increasingly relevant.

Germany’s ongoing failure to live up to it’s NATO defense commitments is indisputable. According to  the European publication DW,   “…a German internal analysis for 2022 also shows chronically underfunded armed forces … NATO planning goals of having Germany … contribute 2% of the GDP within the next few years, ‘can’t be initiated or realized on time,’ under the current budget.”

Tom Rogan, writing for the Washington Examiner, , outlined Berlin’s foreign policy succinctly:  “Berlin prioritizes cheap energy at the energy-and-security expense of its European partners. Berlin acts as a de facto outpost for the Chinese Communist Party, unable to signal anything but hesitant weakness even where it wants to appear resolved. Berlin hosts Russian chemical weapons facilities even as those facilities support assassination campaigns against Germany’s NATO allies. Berlin’s attempts to suggest it is a Western partner are often laughable…new Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now seeking to surpass even his predecessor Angela Merkel’s penchant for appeasing the West’s greatest adversaries…Scholz’s government has abandoned the 2%-of-GDP basic minimum NATO defense spending target and has pulled German support for NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture. Now Scholz is taking the natural next step: calling for new appeasement of Putin even as the Russian president dangles war upon the European continent.”

The issue of Germany’s failures regarding its NATO commitments is not new. Indeed, it was a major flashpoint in the Trump Administration’s bid to re-energize NATO.

Now, however, the question of Berlin’s loyalty to the West has taken a greater dimension as its newly elected government increases its energy dependence on Moscow. The current expanded extent of the problem did not arise spontaneously, and traces its origins across the Atlantic to Washington and the bizarre actions of the Biden Administration.

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Dan Newhouse and Carol Miller, writing for Real Clear Energy note that “Before President Biden took office, the U.S. dominated energy production on a global scale. We became a net exporter of natural gas in 2017, and until recently, our exports have exceeded our imports…[however] the Biden Administration has created a power vacuum by taking American oil and gas off the market. This allows nations like Iran, Russia, and others to step into the void, providing them opportunities to weaponize markets and threaten the stability and security of the globe. The Administration opened the door for Russia by lifting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline sanctions. It also terminated the Keystone XL pipeline and banned any new oil and gas leases on federal lands – forcing the U.S. to retreat from the global energy stage.”

Ukraine, currently under the threat of an invasion from Russia, has been deeply distressed both by the Biden Administration’s energy policy and Germany’s response to it.

Washington’s curious move to cancel the U.S. Keystone XL pipeline while supporting Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline angered America’s allies in Eastern Europe. Max Hunder, writing for the Kyiv Post noted: “In giving the green light on the project, Germany and the U.S. have angered allies and put Ukraine’s security at risk…Germany’s ability to stand up to a Russia it will be heavily dependent on for gas is less than apparent.”

Poland has been equally perturbed. Foreign Minister Zbignew Rau worried that “ In giving the green light on the project, Germany and the U.S. have angered allies … Germany’s ability to stand up to a Russia it will be heavily dependent on for gas is less than apparent.”

As Biden remains entrenched in his anti-fossil fuels policy at home and appears poised to grant concessions to Russia in Eastern Europe, the German question will grow more serious.

Photo: Wilhelmshaven oil port, Germany (Pixabay)

So far, the most violent incident involving the protest came not from the truckers, but from someone who attacked the protestors.  “‘A 42yr old male is facing charges after driving through a group of protesters that were part of the Freedom Convoy at the Legislative grounds,’ the Winnipeg Police tweeted Saturday. ‘Four adult males were struck.'”

Nonetheless, the Police Chief of Ottawa, Peter Sloly, is ready to push the panic button.  According to Reuters, “Ottawa police vowed..to crack down on an ‘increasingly dangerous’ protest by hundreds of truckers who have shut down the center of the Canadian capital…’This remains … an increasingly volatile and increasingly dangerous demonstration,’ (Sloly) told reporters. Protesters in the downtown core ‘remain highly organized, well-funded, extremely committed to resisting all attempts to end the demonstration safely,’ he added.” 

As of the first full week in February, “(p)olice in Canada’s capital said…they had seized thousands of liters of fuel and removed an oil tanker as part of a crackdown to end an 11-day protest against COVID-19 measures…’We are turning up the heat in every way we possibly can,’ Sloly told reporters, days after he said there may not be a ‘policing solution’ to the occupation. ‘We are asking for a major push of resources to come in the next 72 hours.'”

The hypocrisy of the Canadian Prime Minister and Ottawa Police Chief’s stated view of the demonstrably peaceful truck protest contrasts sharply with their support for demonstrably violent Black Lives Matter protestors in June of 2020; “Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a knee during a Black Lives Matter demonstration in Ottawa…Trudeau did not speak at the event, though he clapped and nodded along with some of the other speakers, including a moment when a speaker asserted there is no middle ground on racism.”  Further, the Ottawa Police had a very different view of that protest; “The Ottawa Police Service told CTVnews in a statement the march was peaceful. ‘We respect the rights of our residents and community members to speak out when they see injustices and we understand the community’s deep pain and frustration,” they said. “Our role is to provide a safe space for people to grieve and be heard.'” 

In Toronto one month later, that provision of a “safe space” for BLM led to “at least three Toronto statues…vandalized…as Black Lives Matter Toronto protesters took to the streets demanding the government defund police… Toronto Police (stated) that there were 30 to 40 people at Bond and Gould Sts. and that ‘demonstrators are damaging statue, throwing paint at a statue.’ Minutes later, police tweeted the protest had moved to Queen’s Park Cr. W. and  Wellesley St. W. with more ‘demonstrators damaging statues, spray painting and throwing buckets of paint on property…'”

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One can only suppose that one form of “deep pain and frustration” entitles the protestor to a “safe space,” where statutes can be vandalized, while another, more directly economic form of protest, is to be considered “increasingly dangerous,” and is to be met with a “crackdown.”  

But let’s give the final word here to Tucker Carlson; “Watch what happens when actual workers, working people from working families who constitute the working class, actually come together as a group to protest how things are going. What happens then? Does the intellectual class greet these workers as heroes? Throw a parade? Listen intently to their stories? Does NPR do a sympathetic feature on them? Or, do self-described progressives recoil in revulsion and horror at the grubbiness of the people who as we used to say, work for a living? Do liberals immediately denounce them as Nazis and call for their suppression by force? That’s the question. What’s the answer? We’ll ask Trump voters what happens. They’ll know.” 

Come on and join our convoy
Ain’t nothin’ gonna get in our way
We gonna roll this truckin’ convoy
‘Cross the USA

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC.

Illustration: Pixabay

‘Cause we got a great big convoy
Rockin’ through the night
Yeah, we got a great big convoy
Ain’t she a beautiful sight?

Convoy, CW McCall, 1975

Unless you’ve been watching nothing but the “Genocide” Olympics this past week or so, you have probably become aware that the truck drivers of Canada are engaged in a massive protest.  What are they protesting?  High fuel costs?  Long working hours?  Inequitable pay scales?  Not quite.

In 2021, “Transport Canada—a department within the Canadian government responsible for transportation policies and programs…established vaccination policies for employees in Canada’s federally regulated air, rail and marine transportation sectors…In addition to the regular travel documents like identification, passports and boarding passes, a business traveler will need the Canadian COVID-19 proof of vaccination.” According to the Transport Canada website, this vaccine mandate includes truckers. 

Canada is not alone in imposing this requirement. “‘Starting on January 22, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security will require that non-U.S. individuals entering the United States via land ports of entry or ferry terminals along our Northern and Southern borders be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and be prepared to show related proof of vaccination,’ said (DHS) Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas.”

According to the President of the Canadian Trucking Alliance, Stephen Laskowski, “The Government of Canada and the United States have now made being vaccinated a requirement to cross the border. This regulation is not changing so, as an industry, we must adapt and comply with this mandate…(t)he only way to cross the border, in a commercial truck or any other vehicle, is to get vaccinated.”

Apparently, Laskowski’s membership does not agree with his call for compliance with the mandate.

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“Tens of thousands of truck drivers have formed a caravan to draw attention to their cause and protest new vaccine mandates. The ‘Freedom Convoy’ departed from Vancouver, Canada…with some estimates at 50,000 truck drivers heading for Ottawa, the nation’s capital, to protest new vaccine mandates to cross the U.S-Canada border…The large trucks have been joined by regular vehicles in opposition to the mandate, one of several COVID-19 policy protests to break out around the world in recent months. Photos and videos of the convoy have flooded social media sites like Twitter, furthering the reach of the protest and rallying anti-mandate sentiments in the U.S and abroad.

According to the protest organizers, “Our current government is implementing rules and mandates that are destroying the foundation of our businesses, industries and livelihoods…We are a peaceful country that has helped protect nations across the globe from tyrannical governments who oppressed their people, and now it seems it is happening here. Small businesses are being destroyed, homes are being destroyed, and people are being mistreated and denied fundamental necessities to survive. It’s our duty as Canadians to put an end to these mandates. We are doing this for our future Generations and to regain our lives back.” 

Once the truckers arrived in Ottawa and began to block the streets outside the Canadian Parliament, the response from the government was predictable.   “Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded an end…to a protest by hundreds of truckers against Covid-19 restrictions that has paralyzed the capital, as Ottawa’s mayor called on federal authorities for support. ‘It has to stop,’ Trudeau said during an emergency debate in the House of Commons…Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson earlier urged the federal government to send an additional 1,800 police officers and appoint a mediator to work with protesters to ‘end this siege’ that has infuriated local residents with incessant honking and diesel fumes…Watson declared a state of emergency in the capital, declaring the protests ‘out of control.'” 

Besides honking their air horns and blocking the streets, its unclear just how the protestors are “out of control.”  According to Sean Spence writing for the website, The Conversation, “The hundreds of truck drivers and their supporters who have descended upon Parliament Hill to protest vaccine mandates appear to be settling in for the long haul, with some saying they could be in the Canadian capital for months. While the protest hasn’t descended into large-scale violence, there have been several arrests, war memorials and national monuments have been desecrated and the Confederate flag and Nazi symbols have made appearances.”  Spence then launches into a hysterical, overblown comparison of the truck protest with January 6, several Islamic terror attacks, and Timothy McVeigh’s bombing of a federal building in Oklahoma in 1995 – while exhibiting a photo of several truckers playing hockey in the streets of Ottawa.   

As it turns out, Spence’s view of the “mayhem” attendant to the Ottawa protest may be…exaggerated.  “(T)here was in the large crowd not a single arrest over the past weekend. There were no acts of violence. The liberal media made a big fuss over a supposed desecration of a monument (someone peed on it, apparently) and because someone spotted a Confederate flag. To the chagrin of the left, it was, to use a once-popular description, a ‘largely peaceful’ protest.” 

The article concludes tomorrow

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC.

Photo: Pixabay