Author: Judge John Wilson (ret.)

The late Hall of Fame catcher for the New York Yankees, Yogi Berra, was famous for his “unique and witty observations” such as “nobody goes there anymore.  It’s too crowded,” and “when you come to a fork in the road, take it.”   He also claimed, “I didn’t really say everything I said,” however, there is one phrase Yogi coined that applies to the Indictment filed by Fulton County, Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis against former President Donald Trump; “It’s deja vu all over again.”

In October of this year, we discussed the similarity between the second impeachment of the 45th President and the charges brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith in his second federal indictment of Donald Trump.   A review of the indictment brought by Willis shows a strong identity between many of the “criminal” acts alleged by Smith, and those cited by Willis. 

The Georgia indictment can be viewed here  Meanwhile, Smith’s federal indictment can be viewed here.

Unfortunately, it is perfectly legal for a state prosecutor to bring charges under state law for the same or similar conduct that is the subject of a federal prosecution, or vice versa.  As stated by University of Georgia law professor John Meixner, a former assistant U.S. attorney, “the federal and state are…separate sovereigns where each can do what they choose.” 

Granted, there are also significant differences between the Georgia Indictment and Smith’s federal charges.  While Smith charges Trump, and Trump alone, with several counts of Conspiracy, Willis’ takes the extra step of using  Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) to prosecute Trump and 18 “co-conspirators.”  Smith notes there are “unindicted co-conspirators,” but he does not name or charge them in his indictment.

Under Georgia Code Section 16-14-4, “(a) It shall be unlawful for any person, through a pattern of racketeering activity or proceeds derived therefrom, to acquire or maintain, directly or indirectly, any interest in or control of any enterprise, real property, or personal property of any nature, including money. (b) It shall be unlawful for any person employed by or associated with any enterprise to conduct or participate in, directly or indirectly, such enterprise through a pattern of racketeering activity. (c) It shall be unlawful for any person to conspire or endeavor to violate any of the provisions of subsection (a) or (b) of this Code section.” 

Under Georgia law, “Racketeering is defined as the illegal use of force, violence, or economic or political power to control or extort an enterprise. In the context of Georgia law, it is illegal to engage in a pattern of activity that includes at least two acts of racketeering activity within a 10 year period. The activities may include bribery, extortion, fraud, obstructing justice, counterfeiting, and trafficking in stolen property, among others.” 

There are 41 counts alleged in the Georgia indictment, 13 of which specifically name the former President.  These include the violation of the Georgia RICO statute, “Solicitation of Violation of Oath by Public Official,” “Conspiracy to Commit Impersonating a Public Official,” “Conspiracy to Commit Forgery,” “Conspiracy to Commit False Statements and Writings,” “Filing False Documents,” and making “False Statements and Writings.”  Trump is alleged to have “unlawfully conspired and endeavored to conduct and participate in, directly and indirectly, (an) enterprise through (a) pattern of racketeering activity.”

In defining the “racketeering enterprise,” the Fulton County DA alleges that “(t)he enterprise constituted an ongoing organization whose members and associates functioned as (a) continuing unit for (the) common purpose of achieving the objectives of the enterprise. The enterprise operated in Fulton County, Georgia, elsewhere in the State of Georgia, in other states, including, but not limited to, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and in the District of Columbia. The enterprise operated for (a) period of time sufficient to permit its members and associates to pursue its objectives.”

This explanation sounds very much like the description for a perfectly legal organization – Donald Trump’s 2020 re-election committee – with a perfectly legal goal; the re-election of the President.

This is one of the issues that brings the most criticism to the overbroad Georgia RICO statute – ANY organization could fit the bill of a “racketeering enterprise.” But under the statute, it is the actions of the members of the enterprise that make it a criminal organization, not its structure alone.

The Report concludes tomorrow

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC

Illustration: Pixabay

Unrecognizable America

The shocking demonstrations, on city streets and university campuses, in favor of Hamas’ horrendous terrorist actions illustrates that America is hardly recognizable from the nation it was less than two decades ago. Barack Obama promised to “fundamentally transform” America. He was successful.  The nation has been dramatically altered from what it was before his presidency. 

Consider the dramatic changes. Democrats, Republicans, liberals and conservatives actually had areas of agreement before 2008. The First Amendment was sacrosanct. Almost all agreed that a secure border was necessary. With the election of a black president, the presence of blacks on the Supreme Court and, over the past several years, on many of the highest appointed positions, it was clear that racial animosities of the past were sharply receding. While there was disagreement on spending, the concept of today’s absurd $33 trillion nation debt seemed an unimaginable nightmare; after all, in 2008, it stood as $10.3 trillion.

The United States was the world’s lone military superpower. America’s significant presence in the Middle East deterred aggression. Russia was comparatively peaceful.  China was a growing threat, but it had yet to act out. There were differences of opinion on defense spending, but it was almost universally accepted that U.S. leadership was a good thing.

Through a series of absurd decisions, the nation’s position diminished.

As noted by USAtoday, “The total federal debt increased more under the Obama administration in terms of raw dollars than any other president, according to government data… At the end of fiscal year 2016… the debt was about $19.5 trillion.”

Obama engaged in a virtual jihad against the Pentagon. During his presidency, as reported by the Heritage Foundation, “…in terms of capacity, capability and readiness, the military has been in noticeable decline [during Obama’s tenure]. In the 2017 index, the military’s overall ability to provide the hard power needed to prevail in a multi-conflict scenario was rated as “marginal.” Obama ended America’s ability to fight a two-front war. He further attempted to harm the nation’s ability to produce weapons. One example: there was (and is) only one plant that can produce tanks. Obama fought to close it down.

Russia took note, and invaded and stole Crimea from Ukraine. China invaded the Philippine exclusive economic zone.  Despite condemnation by the World Court at the Hague, Obama didn’t even lodge a diplomatic protest.

He was the most unfriendly president towards Israel. Senator Rubio stated in 2016 that U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) said, concerning regarding the Obama Administration’s decision to abstain from the U.N. Security Council’s vote on an anti-Israel resolution and thereby allow it to pass: “With today’s abstention, President Obama has aided and abetted radical, anti-Semitic forces at the U.N. and cemented his legacy as the most anti-Israel U.S. president in history.” Mysteriously, Obama provide billions in cash to the primary sponsor of international terror, Iran.

As the first black president, Obama had the opportunity to sharply diminish racial animosity and boost black progress. He took the opposite path.  As noted by the Washington Examiner, “…racial resentment has been Obama’s whole schtick. Obama fanned the flames of racial division when the Black Lives Matter movement popped up in 2015. He said that the death of Michael Brown, who had assaulted officer Darren Wilson and attempted to grab Wilson’s gun during a confrontation Brown initiated, was proof of a ‘broken and racially-biased system.’ He also claimed that ‘millions of Americans’ were racists who were ‘spooked’ by his election in 2008.”

Obama’s policies and even some of his advisors guide Biden. Obama’s foreign policy errors, his inflammation of internal division, his national security negligence guide those of the current White House.

Photo: Pixabay

What is “racketeering activity” under Georgia law? “Racketeering is defined as ‚the illegal use of force, violence, or economic or political power to control or extort an enterprise‚. In the context of Georgia law, it is illegal to engage in a pattern of activity that includes at least two acts of racketeering activity within a 10 year period. The activities may include bribery, extortion, fraud, obstructing justice, counterfeiting, and trafficking in stolen property, among others.” Further, “(i)n Georgia, racketeering is a felony charge, and is punishable by significant fines and up to ten years in prison.”  

 The Georgia RICO statute has been a formidable weapon in Fani Willis’ arsenal.  “(I)n 2013, Willis turned heads in one of her first big cases: She helped convene a grand jury that indicted decorated (Atlanta Schools) Superintendent Beverly Hall and nearly three dozen other educators for cheating on state standardized tests…Hall, the Atlanta superintendent, arrived in the district in 1999, eventually leading what she would call a data-driven turnaround… By 2009…the Journal-Constitution published the first of several stories analyzing Atlanta’s results on the Georgia Criterion-Referenced Competency Test. The analysis found that scores had risen at rates that were statistically ‘all but impossible.’ It also found that district officials disregarded internal irregularities and retaliated against whistleblowers.”

 As described by Yahoo News, “(c)ritics would soon compare Hall to ‘a Mafia boss who demanded fealty from subordinates while perpetrating a massive, self-serving fraud,’ the city newspaper reported at the time. Willis pursued Hall using the same tools many prosecutors employ against Mafia bosses and drug kingpins. In bringing charges under the state’s RICO Act, Willis alleged that Hall and her colleagues used the ‘legitimate enterprise’ of the school system to carry out an illegitimate act: cheating.”

 Was this use of the RICO statute effective?  Public opinion on the case was sharply divided, with many Black commentators accusing Willis of overreach. But eventually, 34 of Hall’s subordinates faced criminal charges…. While most of the Atlanta educators eventually pleaded guilty to avoid jail time, 12 went to trial in 2014…The jury convicted 11 of the 12 of racketeering and other charges.”

 What of the “Atlanta schools kingpin,” Superintendent Beverly Hall?  “Hall retired in 2011 (and) died of breast cancer in 2015, at age 68.”

 More recently, “(i)n the spring of 2022, (Young Thug) the rapper – full name Jeffrey Lamar Williams – was charged alongside 27 of his alleged affiliates with 56 violations of Georgia’s (RICO) Act. He’s been cast by prosecutors as the criminal mastermind of Young Slime Life, a gang prosecutors claim was active from 2012. It was a shocking development for fans of Thug, a hugely popular artist and one of the most influential rappers of his generation. He faces up to 40 years in prison.” 

One of the more unique features of Willis’ prosecution of Young Thug and his co-defendants is her use of “the Thugger lyrics, ‘I’m prepared to take them down’ and ‘I never killed anybody but I got something to do with that body’…Willis…said she would (also) be leaning on lyrics in another RICO case prosecuting 26 alleged members of the Drug Rich Gang, who are charged with kidnappings, armed robberies, shootings and high-profile home invasions. Among the targeted were singer Mariah Carey, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley and Atlanta United goalkeeper Brad Guzan, according to a 220-count indictment. ‘I think if you decide to admit your crimes over a beat, I’m going to use it,’ she said, deflecting criticism. ‘I’m not targeting anyone, but however, you do not get to commit crimes in my county and then decide to brag on it.’” 

These indictments have also received their fair share of criticism. “RICO is most commonly used as a tactic to sweep up entire street gangs,” according to Sidney Madden, the co-host of a podcast for NPR entitled Louder than a Riot. (T)he definition of a street gang gets real spongy when you look at it in Black communities. When prosecutors apply RICO to rap, it’s not just the rappers getting caught up in the system, but it’s their whole crew and their whole entourage. Everyone is being roped in and classified as a gang member. Basically, it allows prosecutors to hold anyone and everyone in an entire group responsible for the worst things someone in their circle has done. So if you’re a rapper and you associate with people engaging in criminal activity — maybe y’all grew up on the same block, maybe you used to run the same streets before you switched into entertainment, maybe you brought them with you out of the streets into entertainment — prosecutors can use all that and use RICO laws to brand y’all as an organized crime syndicate.”

Substitute the word “rapper” for “Trump campaign worker” or “Trump attorney,” and the basis for DA Willis’ RICO charges against Trump and his “entourage” become clear – “everyone is being roped in and classified as a gang member.”

According to Joe Lancaster, writing for Reason, “Willis is unapologetic about her use of the statute, saying in August 2022, ‘I’m a fan of RICO’…(she noted that) her office has pursued 11 RICO cases since she became D.A. in January 2021. She has primarily used it against gangs, bringing RICO charges in 2022 and 2023 over a series of Atlanta shootings and home invasions.” 

But is this necessarily a good thing? “RICO statutes allow prosecutors to bring charges using guilt by association. Kerry Martin wrote in the Michigan Journal of Race & Law that RICO ‘is not supposed to criminalize mere membership in a gang, but it comes dangerously close to doing so.'”

Lancaster continues: “The original federal RICO law was drafted for use against the mafia, allowing prosecutors to bring conspiracy charges based on certain predicate acts. It quickly expanded to include all manner of activity that was already illegal but could now be charged more aggressively. As Reason noted all the way back in 1990, ‘Ambitious federal prosecutors have now discovered RICO’s many uses, and this poses a great danger to civil liberty and free enterprise.’ Georgia’s RICO law is even more expansive than its federal counterpart—for example, it does not require multiple defendants or an extended timeline to establish a conspiracy. Former prosecutor Chris Timmons told ABC News, ‘Somebody could go to JC Penney, shoplift a pair of socks, walk next door to Sears and shoplift a second pair of socks, and they can be charged with RICO.’

In other words, Willis routinely takes advantage of a very broad statute to bring conspiracy charges against large groups, and spends years wearing those accused of being members of those groups down, just as she did with the Atlanta school system, and is currently doing with Young Thug and his associates. “Thug has been in Cobb County Jail since May of last year. He spent his first eight months there awaiting the proposed January 9 start date of his court proceedings, and has remained there for the past eight while Fulton County Superior Court Judge Ural Glanville continues to conduct extensive juror search that’s set to make the YSL trial the longest in Georgia history.” 

With the next Presidential election scheduled to be held in less than a year, can there be any doubt that the Fulton County DA wishes to keep Donald Trump and his campaign “organization” tied up in complex litigation for the foreseeable future?

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC

Illustration: Pixabay

We discussed Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment of Donald Trump.   Then we dissected Special Counsel Jack Smith’s first federal indictment of the former President. We also reviewed the facts and charges Smith added to this first federal indictment.  Next, we analyzed Smith’s second federal indictment of the 45th President.  

Two federal indictments, one in Florida and another in Washington DC, as well as a New York City indictment would all be a heavy burden for any defendant, especially one who is running for President of the United States. 

But wait – there’s more.

On August 14, 2023,  “(f)ormer President Donald Trump was indicted…on racketeering, conspiracy and other charges by a grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, the result of a more than two-year investigation…into potential 2020 election interference in that state. Eighteen other people, including Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, were also indicted, accused of joining Trump in efforts to unlawfully change the outcome of the election.” 

 The indictment can be viewed here. Specifically, Trump and his co-defendants are alleged to have “unlawfully conspired and endeavored to conduct and participate in…a pattern of racketeering activity” while “associated with an enterprise” that allegedly violated Georgia law…Trump and the other defendants charged in this Indictment refused to accept that Trump had lost (the 2020 Presidential election), and they knowingly and willfully joined a conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the election in favor of Trump.”

 As described by PBS, “(t)he nearly 100-page indictment details dozens of acts by Trump or his allies to undo his defeat, including beseeching Georgia’s Republican secretary of state to find enough votes for him to win the battleground state; harassing an election worker who faced false claims of fraud; and attempting to persuade Georgia lawmakers to ignore the will of voters and appoint a new slate of electoral college electors favorable to Trump.” 

 “The yearslong probe of former President Donald Trump and his allies by Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis may prove to be Trump’s toughest legal challenge yet,” ABC News breathlessly reports.  Yet, despite their obvious glee at yet another Trump indictment, the mainstream media seems to recognize that the shine is off the apple here.  “What was once unprecedented — a former president facing criminal charges — has fallen into a familiar cadence…Trump and his campaign will decry the charges. His campaign will likely fundraise off of these charges. Trump and his campaign continue to conflate his personal legal problems with the cause of his political movement, using the charges as a tool to gin up his base. It has been working. Numerous charges haven’t slowed his campaign yet.” 

You can hear the disappointment loud and clear – “Darn it!  Won’t anything stop this man?”

Donald Trump is a human being, not a relentless Juggernaut.  Certainly, something, or some event (such as several losses in upcoming primaries) could potentially “stop him.” But this indictment by another local prosecutor, this time in Fulton County, Georgia, isn’t likely to cause the derailment of the runaway Trump train.

Who has brought this latest Indictment against the former President? According to the BBC, Fulton County, Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis was born “in Inglewood, California in 1971 (and) was raised primarily by her father, a criminal defense lawyer and member of the Black Panthers, the radical political party which championed black rights…(s)he graduated from the historically black college Howard University in 1993, before receiving a law degree from Emory University in Georgia in 1996…Ms Willis joined the Fulton County District Attorney’s office, where she served in several different divisions until 2018..(a)fter her time in the office ended, Ms Willis spent several years in private practice. Then, in 2020, she decided to go head-to-head with her former boss, six-term Fulton County District Attorney Paul Howard. She won in a runoff election with 73% of the votes, becoming the first black woman to serve as Fulton County’s top prosecutor.”

 Unlike the Manhattan DA, Alvin Bragg, who “received more than $1 million in support from the Color Of Change PAC, a racial justice group which receives funding from (George) Soros” during his campaign, there isn’t any clear evidence  that Willis is yet another “progressive DA.”  Her office’s website includes a pledge to “provide an environment of mutual respect, regardless of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, sexual orientation, age, disability or gender identity,” however, there is also a statement of integrity, which reads “this office will now show a consistent and uncompromising adherence to strong moral and ethical principles and values.”   

 Further, unlike Bragg, who specifically campaigned on his plan “to personally focus on the high-profile probe into former President Donald Trump’s business practices,”  there is scant evidence that Willis made similar overt promises during her race. 

 What Willis does bring to this prosecution, is a willingness to use racketeering charges indiscriminately against any and all defendants.  In fact, it would seem that Willis only carries one hammer, which makes every criminal case look like a nail to her.

 Similar to the federal RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) law, under Georgia Code Section 16-14-4, “(a) It shall be unlawful for any person, through a pattern of racketeering activity or proceeds derived therefrom, to acquire or maintain, directly or indirectly, any interest in or control of any enterprise, real property, or personal property of any nature, including money. (b) It shall be unlawful for any person employed by or associated with any enterprise to conduct or participate in, directly or indirectly, such enterprise through a pattern of racketeering activity. (c) It shall be unlawful for any person to conspire or endeavor to violate any of the provisions of subsection (a) or (b) of this Code section.” 

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC

The article concludes tomorrow

The Pentagon has released its annual analysis of China’s military power and strategy. The report should deeply concern America and its allies.

A senior defense official, speaking on background, noted that “The People’s Republic of China is continuing its efforts to overturn the international rules-based order and is building an increasingly effective military to further these aims…Communist leaders seek “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” by 2049 – the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party’s takeover of the world’s largest country.”

The report discusses the lack of contacts between U.S. and Chinese defense officials. “The PLA’s refusal to engage in military-to-military communications with the United States, combined with the PLA’s increasingly coercive and risky operational behavior, raises the risk of an operational incident or miscalculation spiraling into crisis or conflict,” according to the Pentagon.

Particularly troubling is China’s deepening security ties with Russia. Recently, China’s dictator Xi met with Putin, and the two emphasized their strong alliance and intertwined foreign policies.

China is engaging in growing military coercion, according to the official. One specific example is the increasing numbers of unsafe intercepts of U.S., allied and partner vessels and aircraft operating in international air and seaways of the Indo-Pacific region. “Between the fall of 2021 and the fall of 2023, the United States documented over 180 instances of coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the region,” the official said. When allies and partners are included, this jumps to more than 300 instances.”

China is intensifying its pressure campaign against Taiwan, including Chinese ballistic missile overflights of Taiwan, increased flights into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone and the large-scale simulated joint blockade and simulated joint firepower strike operations done after a visit to the island by a U.S. congressional delegation. 

The focus of the report is China’s military’s vast and rapidly growing nuclear, space and cyberspace capabilities. “We see the PRC continuing to quite rapidly modernize and diversify and expand its nuclear forces…They are expanding and investing in their land, sea and air-based nuclear delivery platforms, as well as the infrastructure that’s required to support this” the Department official said.

China now has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, a rate of growth greater than anticipated by Western observers.

China is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles.  Beijing has the capability of reaching any American homeland target.  

On the land, the PLA continues to modernize its equipment and focus on combined arms and joint training, the official said. The Chinese military is still a conscript force with two intakes a year. The military is working to field long-range fires and incorporate the capability into their doctrine. 

At sea, China has the world’s largest navy with a battle force of more than 370 ships and submarines. The Chinese launched their third aircraft carrier in the past year and commissioned their third amphibious assault ship. 

The PLA Air Force “is rapidly catching up to western air forces,” the official said. The air force continues to build up manned and unmanned aircraft and the Chinese announced the fielding of the H-6N – its first nuclear-capable, air-to-air refueled bomber. 

The Chinese military has not been involved in a shooting war since 1979 and “this actually is one of the shortcomings that the PRC highlights and a lot of their own self assessments,” the official said. “They tried to address that, I think, by attempting to make their training and their exercises more realistic, to more closely approximate … actual combat type conditions.  

“I think they tried to address it as well, by learning whatever lessons they can from other countries’ involvement in military conflicts,” he continued.  

Chinese military leaders carefully studied military conflicts involving U.S. forces, Russian forces and others over the years. That is one of the key sources they draw upon to better understand how they need to prepare themselves for future combat operations. “Certainly, they’re watching very closely Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine,” the official said. 

The Chinese military is looking for bases overseas and looking to develop the resources needed to be a globally relevant force. They have established an overall logistics command and they are working hand-in-glove with the Belt and Road Initiative to gain access.

Photo: Chinese warship undergoing at-sea resupply, an indication of the increasingly global reach of Beijing’s massive military might. (China Defence Ministry)

Recent Chinese actions toward Russia recall the lessons learned by Ebenezer Scrooge in A Christmas Carol. In that story Mr. Scrooge is visited by ghosts of Christmas past, present, and future. Unlike its ending, however, China is not expected to morph into a kinder and gentler nation. In late November China media reports emerged discussing Beijing’s outright refusal to invest in the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline while also insisting it be granted sizable energy discounts. Xi Jinping recognizes he has the upper hand in bargaining with Vladimir Putin and is demanding that its ally fully cover 100% of the costs of the multibillion-dollar project. China is capitalizing on Russia’s weak financial status further strained by costs related to its lengthy war in Ukraine to support its critical energy needs. 

At one time Moscow was the dominant partner in the bilateral relationship. In recent decades the balance has shifted in favor of Beijing. The war in Ukraine weakened Putin’s geopolitical leverage and exacerbated the country’s critical need for financial resources. Ksenia Kirillova, of the Jamestown Foundation, says that Western economic sanctions have made it possible for China to increase its Russian energy imports and obtain cheaper gas prices since Moscow can’t fully compensate for losses after Gazprom withdrew from the European markets. Kirillova adds that gas supplies from the Power of Siberia-1 pipeline cost China about 50% of rates for the European Union and Turkey. He points out that “Russian oil and gas analyst Mikhail Krutikhin emphasizes that Beijing has little interest in the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, as China does not require large quantities of natural gas.” As of December, the rates do not cover Russia’s cost of production and transportation. China knows this and is taking advantage of the Kremlin’s lack of financial resources.

Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party support its interests without regard to the critical needs of its long-time ally. Recently, Beijing’s propaganda apparatchik began treating Siberia as a “resource colony” for China. The two states today remain in competition for influence in the Central Asian region. Marina Rudyak, a professor of Sinology at Heidelberg University, argues that China still fears Russia could win in Ukraine and elevate its status in Central Asia and beyond. That could thwart Chinese plans in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and other regions.

At 70 years of age, Xi is beginning to consider how he will be remembered in history. Early on in office, he indicated his intent to reclaim Taiwan before leaving office. Despite a signed agreement with Russia permanently ceding one million square miles of Siberian territory Russia had seized from it at the end of WWII, Xi has shown indications he plans reacquire the region. It may be possible for Xi to accomplish his goals without the use of military troops if he can economically take over Siberia. He is using sophisticated influence operations to Taiwanese domestic politics. Military analysts in Washington are uncertain if Xi will use force there in the coming years. 

China and Russia, two important communist states, continue in an uneasy collaboration in other areas such as censorship and control over the Internet. Radio Free Europe last spring reported that China has shared its insights on the functions and capabilities of its “Great Firewall” with Moscow since 2015. The direction of the bilateral relationship in recent years, however, does not portend a positive future for either country. China must keep Moscow, one of its few allies, at a distance to avoid being pulled into the Western sanction’s regime. Russia’s financial status forces it to rely heavily on supplying its strategic resources at deeply discounted prices to obtain minimal levels of political support from Beijing. It is unlikely that Xi Jinping willingly will risk China’s future to save Russia, or to provide it enough financial or political support to strengthen it. To do so would threaten Xi’s global ambitions. It appears he will continue in the role of Mr. Scrooge and not share China’s wealth or influence with the Kremlin, its oldest ally.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

A newly declassified US intelligence assessment this week indicates that Russia has lost 315,000 troops to injuries or death out of its 360,000 ground troops since invading Ukraine. Despite the huge blow, which also includes the loss of 2,200 of its 3,500 tanks, Moscow is pushing forward on another front.

As the cold of winter sets in across the northern hemisphere, analysts in Washington are reexamining Russia’s ambitious plans in the Arctic. In recent years President Vladimir Putin has set his sights on claiming large swaths of Artic territory. With the US failing to ratify the Law of the Sea (LOS) treaty, Washington has had no seat at the table, and little say over Russia’s actions. Due to the lack of American push back, the international community is beginning to recognize Russia’s territorial claims. This should give Western nations great concern even as Russia temporarily constrains some of its Arctic activities.

There is some short-term, good news from the Far North. Putin’s war in Ukraine is forcing him to increasingly shift financial resources away from his Arctic goals. The strain is hampering the pace of the Kremlin’s future political and economic plans in the region, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. He says, “The Russian government can no longer afford the land-or sea-based infrastructure it needs to strengthen its territorial claims and struggles to source critical components for Arctic shipping and the development of natural resources there.” All of the Arctic littoral states are now members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and no longer neutral nations.

Beijing is not a dependent source of resources for Moscow this year, as Xi Jinping and the CCP are facing their own domestic economic challenges. The Chinese leadership also recognizes that aiding Russia will further alienate the West at a time of historically high tensions since 1948.

Moscow appears to be increasingly concerned that other states may also challenge its position in the Arctic. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin has attempted to shore up Russia’s territorial claims in the High North, especially to the Arctic seabed. The UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental shelf (CLCS) reviewed and accepted most of Moscow’s claims and acknowledged the Arctic states can use existing technology to claim the seabed, almost two weeks before Putin’s February 2022 invasion.

“The new reality,” according to Goble, is that it allows “Canada, Denmark, and Greenland to make similar submissions and means that a final decision on Artic territorial claims remains a distant dream.”

The US -Russian border along the Arctic Ocean and the underlying seabed are guided by a 1990 agreement since the US has signed, but not ratified, the more recent LOS treaty.

In mid-April 2021, the Kremlin reported Putin gave two speeches, one to the Russian parliament and another to the influential Russian Geographical Society, in which he called for the launch of Russian development of the High North. In them he noted that new Arctic transportation networks were needed to support the Northern Sea Route. Goble says this is a key policy goal for the Russian president as he intends to develop the region’s expansive oil and gas reserves. While Moscow’s Arctic energy plan has slowed due to the war in Ukraine, it is not entirely dead although some programs including several military-related projects, are on hold as many Russians are leaving the High North. Goble points out, “these obstacles have pushed some in Moscow to argue that Russia must press its case in the Arctic by acting unilaterally and militarily rather than prioritizing economic development and adhering to international law.”

In June 2022, after increased international isolation from the West and Putin’s failed attempt to create an alternative Arctic grouping of states, Moscow found it also lost its steady backing from Beijing. The Eurasian Daily Monitor’s Ksenia Kirillova reports that China is the dominant partner and in a strong bargaining position now. It is insisting on, and getting, substantial discounts for Russian gas.

Western governments need to evaluate, be guided by, and respond to Russian actions and future plans with due consideration to how Moscow views adherence to international law and conventions. The Russian Fund for the Defense of Investors’ Rights in Foreign States argues that Putin doesn’t need UN approval for its claims. According to the Fund, Russia simply must declare its ownership and employ its military to defend the claims to the Arctic seabed and lands.

The Fund was established by Putin as part of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to defend Russia’s Arctic claims explicitly and unilaterally. In the future, as the Northern Passage opens to year-round oceanic commercial traffic and new seabed resources are discovered, Putin could use this body to justify conflict in the Arctic against other states staking claims. A former DIA analyst, interviewed on the Vernuccio-Novak Report radio show, noted that when Putin is backed into a corner, as appears to be the case in the Arctic, he is capable of striking out like a cornered snake. The financial and military constraints of the war in Ukraine today may, in the end, make the Russian president a deadlier future opponent in the Arctic.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Each American President has committed serious policy mistakes. Many have overstepped constitutional limits on their power. More than one has engaged in activities that skirt the lines of corruption.

Never before, however, has an administration had such a near-total record of deadly serious policy failures at home and abroad, combined with stunning acts of sleaze and dishonesty, as that of the current White House.

 At this moment, the planet is enduring wars in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The Biden response to each situation has made matters far worse. His decision to depart Afghanistan abandoning billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and not leaving behind a residual force at Bagram Air Force Base essentially rang the dinner bell for rapacious dictators in Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing. His defense spending proposals added to the impression that his Administration was not serious about security issues. Its pursuit of a worthless nuclear deal with Iran, his comments that he wouldn’t respond to a “minor incursion” in Ukraine defied common sense. The White House refusal to shoot down China’s spy balloon until it completed its mission over continental USA baffled and worried observers. The bizarre decision to end the existing program to root out Beijing’s intense espionage remains a frightening mystery.

As the threat of global terrorism grows exponentially, Biden clings to his open border policy. Millions enter the United States without background checks and minus any means of tracking their whereabouts.  Border patrol agents have warned about finding Islamic prayer rugs along the border. Military age Chinese nationals are crossing into the United States,

In addition to the national safety implications, this has led to great financial distress of city and state governments. It can’t even be justified on naïve sympathy grounds for illegal immigrants, who find themselves subject to rape, trafficking, and exploitation. Their overwhelming numbers leave them in many cases on the streets, without any legal means of providing for themselves. They are deeply vulnerable to becoming pawns for criminal cartels, and the influence of foreign powers who seek to construct a fifth column within the nation.  

Despite all that, Biden keeps doubling down on his border disaster. The New York Post reports that “’Asylum seekers’” arriving in New York City just set a new record: nearly 4,000 in a single week. And the routine inflow is double what it was a year ago. It’s getting worse, not better…Team Biden hasn’t done a thing to slow the tide at the border [it has] opened various new paths for illegal migrants to enter ‘legally’ — with each fresh ‘pathway’ adding to the ’come on in!’ signal.”

A bizarre energy policy that destroyed related America’s self-sufficiency and dramatically benefitted unsavory regimes in Iran, Russia, and Venezuela served both to enrich aggressor states and imperil the U.S. economy. Energy is the bedrock of a modern economy, and despite all the bluster, there is no “alternative energy” yet developed that is capable of meeting demand. The impact on the economy is clear. The House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (MO-R) recently showed prices rising 17.7 percent since President Biden took the Oath of Office.

It would be almost comforting to believe that these were all acts of incompetence, but the evidence of corruption surrounding the President and his family is disturbing. The House Oversight Committee states that “There is mounting evidence that Joe Biden was involved in his family’s influence peddling schemes, including while he served as Vice President.”  Considering the strange and politically suicidal nature of Biden’s decisions regarding China in particular, it is not inappropriate to ask what influence did the funds foreign sources have on Administration policies.