Arctic Importance and Danger Grows

As Arctic-like temperatures descend on the United States this week, we are reminded that there is a great frozen north that can impact events outside the immediate region. The Arctic today plays an increasingly important geopolitical role with the growing potential of a year-round new Northern Passage for commercial shipping, technologically available energy rich resources, and an expanded Russian military presence in the area. Moscow is continuing to build military bases there despite Putin’s ongoing war in Ukraine. CNN reports that in an exclusive interview on Friday NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said there is now “a significant Russian military build-up in the high north,” with recent tensions causing the alliance to “double its presence” in response.

A senior Western intelligence official, according to CNN, says Russia has withdrawn as much as 75% of its land forces from the High North region near the Arctic and reassigned them to the war in Ukraine. Maxar Technologies, a company that provides disruptive earth intelligence to governments and the private sector, was able to produce a series of satellite pictures that show while the number of soldiers may have decreased, Russian radar bases and runways in the Arctic are undergoing improvements over the past year. The geospacial information indicates that even though resources are scarce, it is evidence Putin continues to prioritize fortification and expansion of the country’s defensive posture in the High North. Many analysts agree that a regional conflict among great powers remains unlikely in the near future. Putin’s determination to continue military projects, however, remains significant.

There are important changes to the radar stations at the Olenegorsk site, on the Kola Peninsula in northwest Russia, and at Vorkuta, just north of the Arctic circle. Satellite images also depict work moving ahead to complete one of five Rezonans-N radar systems at Ostrovnoy, a site located by the Barents Sea, near Norway and Finland in Russia’s west. These radar systems, according to Russian military officials, can detect stealth aircraft and objects. Russia is not only building radar systems but radomes, the weatherproof enclosures used to the radar antennas. At the Nagurskoye and “Temp” Air Bases, Russia is also making improvements to the runways and aprons.

The Arctic is key to Russia’s expanding oil and gas sector but more importantly, from a military perspective, it is critical to Moscow’s nuclear defenses. By refurbishing and upgrading Soviet era bases Putin can project power and protect the country’s sophisticated nuclear weaponry and submarine facilities. “That deterrence has always been ready,” said a senior Western intelligence official. “It’s never down to low readiness; it’s a high status all the time,” the official told CNN Friday. Stoltenberg points out that “The shortest way from Russia to North America is over the Arctic North Pole. The strategic importance of these areas has not changed because of the war in Ukraine… We see Russia reopening old Soviet bases, military sites” and its “testing novel weapons in the Arctic and the high north.”

Economically the region’s contributions amount to about 20% of Russia’s total GDP. Although Russia’s land force strength in the region is lower, Moscow’s navy is not impacted, nor is its overall defense posture. The area’s rapidly melting ice will soon open a much shorter commercial shipping route along Russia’s coastline from Southeast Asia to Europe.

Unlike the United States Russia owns a fleet of atomic-powered ice breakers that will enable it to take full advantage of the warming trend. “The war in Ukraine has boosted NATO’s presence in the region. Once Finland and Sweden join the block, as is widely expected, seven out of eight Arctic states will be NATO members,” according to Nick Walsh and Sarah Dean of CNN. They point out that NATO has also become increasingly concerned about the potential sabotage of Norway’s oil and gas infrastructure. Since Russian energy is subject to sanctions, Norway’s natural gas makes up more than 20% of Europe’s supply. To ensure energy security, Stoltenberg says NATO has doubled its presence in the region with submarines and maritime patrol aircraft as a message of readiness and deterrence in the protection of critical infrastructure. Should Putin decide to return troops to the Arctic bases, he can do it in a short period of time.

It will be important to watch developments over the coming year to see if Putin has other plans for the region given th country’s commitment to building permanent infrastructure.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Part 3: AMERICA’S STRATEGIC POSTURE

We conclude our summary of the urgent recommendation of the Congressional Committee on the nation’s Strategic Posture NON-NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES The Commission recommends: The United States urgently deploy a more resilient space architecture and adopt a strategy that includes both offensive and defensive elements to ensure U.S. access to and operations in space. The United States and its Allies take steps to ensure they are at the cutting edge of emerging technologies – such as big data analytics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) – to avoid strategic surprise and potentially enhance the U.S. strategic posture. The United States prioritize funding and accelerate long-range non-nuclear precision strike programs to meet the operational need and in greater quantities than currently planned. x America’s Strategic Posture The United States develop and field homeland IAMD that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean threat.4 The Secretary of Defense direct research, development, test and evaluation into advanced IAMD capabilities leveraging all domains, including land, sea, air, and space. These activities should focus on sensor architectures, integrated command and control, interceptors, cruise and hypersonic missile defenses, and area or point defenses. The DOD should urgently pursue deployment of any capabilities that prove feasible. The Secretary of Defense and the Military Departments transfer operations and sustainment responsibility for missile defense to the appropriate Military Departments by 1 October 2024. This will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to focus on research, development, prototyping and testing. ALLIES AND PARTNERS The Commission believes it is in the U.S. national interest to maintain, strengthen, and when appropriate, expand its network of alliances and partnerships. These relationships strengthen American security by deterring aggression regionally, before it can reach the U.S. homeland, while also enabling U.S. economic prosperity through access to international markets. Withdrawing from U.S. alliances and partnerships would directly benefit adversaries, invite aggression that the United States might later have to reverse, and ultimately decrease American, allied, and partner security and economic prosperity. Further, the Commission believes that our defense and the defense of the current international order is strengthened when Allies can directly contribute to the broader strategic posture, and the United States should seek to incorporate those contributions as much as possible. The Executive branch should recognize that any major change to U.S. strategic posture, policies, or capabilities will have great effect on Allies’ perceptions and their deterrence and assurance requirements. As a result, any changes should be predicated on meaningful consultations. RISK REDUCTION The Commission believes it is of paramount importance for the United States to work to reduce strategic risks. This involves activities and programs across the U.S. government, including in nonproliferation and arms control, as well as maintaining strong, viable, and resilient military forces. The Commission recommends that a strategy to address the two-nuclear-peer threat environment be a prerequisite for developing U.S. nuclear arms control limits for the 2027-2035 timeframe. The Commission recommends that once a strategy and its related force requirements are established, the U.S. government determine whether and how nuclear arms control limits continue to enhance U.S. security. The Commission recommends that the United States continue to explore nuclear arms control opportunities and conduct research into potential verification technologies in order to support or enable future negotiations in the U.S. national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types, should the geopolitical environment change. Where formal nuclear arms control agreements are not possible, the Commission recommends pursuing nuclear risk reduction measures to increase predictability and reduce uncertainty and the chances for misperception and miscalculation. The 2009 Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States reported that the United States was at “a moment of opportunity, . . .but also a moment of urgency” – because the security environment had improved and the threat of nuclear proliferation was the principal concern. Since 2009, the security environment has dramatically worsened and new existential threats have emerged. This Commission concludes that the United States now faces a highstakes challenge that requires urgent action. Nevertheless, the Commission has not seen the U.S. government demonstrate the urgency and creativity required to meet the challenge. Nothing other than synchronized steps taken by the Executive and Legislative Branches will craft the strategy and build the posture the nation requires. The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now. Photo: An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during a test at Vandenberg Space Force Base (DoD)