The New York Analysis of Policy and Government begins a multi-part review of the growing threat from Iran.
Among the most serious challenges facing Donald Trump will be the growing threat from Iran.
After eight years of unrealistic hope on the part of the Obama Administration that Iran’s aggressiveness could be curbed, realism may make a return with his successor. On land, sea and air, in its alliance with Russia and China, its cooperation with North Korea in weapons of mass destruction development, and in its newly expanded role in the Middle East, Iran’s power and influence has expanded dramatically.
None of this should come as a surprise. In 2008, the Rand Corporation noted: “Khamenei’s sense of strategic confidence, distrust of the United States, and focus on Iranian sovereignty results in an aversion to compromise. Some of Khamenei’s status quo orientation can be attributed to his reading of Iran’s recent gains in the wake of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the 2006 Lebanon war, and other regional events. His speeches and writings evince a sense of strategic triumphalism—that is, the belief that if there is a “new Middle East,” it is one that has tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic. U.S. policymakers should be cognizant of how this outlook informs Khamenei’s aversion to negotiations and compromise. The Leader harbors a deep-seated distrust of U.S. intentions—a sentiment that holds throughout Iran. Compromise, according to Khamenei, will only be seen as a sign of weakness, encouraging the United States to exert greater pressure on the Islamic Republic. For the Leader, justice, Islam, independence and self-sufficiency are paramount, and ultimately intertwined. For Iran to safeguard social justice and promote Islam, it must be politically independent; and it cannot be independent unless it is economically and technologically self-sufficient—hence the importance of an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle…”
Iran’s attitude and intentions can be discerned not just in the writings of western analysts, but in the direct statements of Iranian leaders. Consider these comments reported by Iran Intelligence:
“As long as America exists, we will not rest … We must raise public hate against the despotic powers and create the environment for the destruction of America.”
Basij Paramilitary Force Head Brig-Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi – March 15, 2012
“Today, the time for the fall of the satanic power of the United States has come, and the countdown to the annihilation of the emperor of power and wealth has started.”
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – June 2, 2008
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“At the end of the day, we are an anti-American regime. America is our enemy, and we are the enemies of America … Just like [our] movement destroyed the monarchical regime here, it will definitely destroy the arrogant rule of hegemony of America, Israel, and their allies” Chairman of Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati – June 1, 2007”
Iran has managed to escape most public blame for the most serious terror attack on American soil, the 9/11/01 assault, but the links do exist. According to the Clarion Project,
“In December 2011, U.S. District Judge George B. Daniels ruled “that Iran and Hezbollah materially and directly supported al Qaeda in the September 11, 2001 attacks.” The 9/11 Commission reported that 8 to 10 of the 9/11 hijackers traveled through Iran between October 2000 and February 200l. They took advantage of an Iranian agreement to not stamp the passports of Al-Qaeda members going through the country. The travel of the hijackers appears to have been coordinated with Hezbollah, with one even boarding the same flight to Beirut as Hezbollah’s operations chief, Imad Mughniyah. The judge was also persuaded by testimony from three Iranian defectors, including a former intelligence officer named Hamid Reza Zakeri that defected in 2001 and claimed to have foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks. Zakeri provided alleged top-secret intelligence documents proving that Iran and Hezbollah helped orchestrate the attacks.” Hezbollah receives all of its funding from Iran.
Iran’s aggressiveness has been, and will be, dangerous both in its progress towards acquiring weapons of mass destruction and in its expanding conventional military presence in the Middle East.
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has reported that “Iran’s current rulers see nuclear arms as central to their national ambitions. While the Rafsanjani and Khatami administrations looked at nuclear weapons as tools of deterrence, for the conservatives they are a critical means of solidifying Iran’s preeminence in the region. A hegemonic Iran requires a robust and extensive nuclear apparatus.”
Tehran continues to make progress both in its nuclear weapons program, and in the means to launch those weapons across vast distances.
Tomorrow: Iran’s nuclear and missile program