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Space Threats

The Defense Department is concerned that the danger of aggression from enemy nations in earth orbit could prove harmful to the United States. Both the civilian economy and national security depend on orbital assets.

Speaking at a defense conference, Space Force Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond outlined the U.S. need for defense above the atmosphere.

“The Space Force has a strong and daily connection with nearly every American citizen,” he said. “GPS enables people and goods to move efficiently and it is estimated that a billion dollars a day of U.S. economic activity depends on it. Precision timing signals synchronized clocks on smartphones, enables global financial networks and optimizes the performance of critical infrastructure. Our missile warning centers provide an unblinking eye, protecting the homeland and our forces around the globe.”

More so than any other nation, America is dependent on its satellites.  The Russians and the Chinese have noticed. Both have developed the capability of attacking that vulnerability.  

Threats include jamming GPS and communication satellites, and directed energy systems that can blind, disrupt or damage orbital assets. They have positioned weapons in space and on the ground, designed to destroy satellites and cyber capabilities used to control satellites.

General Raymond stated “Let me be clear, we do not want to get into a conflict that begins or ascends into space. The best way I know to deter is to do so from a position of strength. To preserve the peace, you have to be ready to win.”

In an effort to rapidly confront the challenge, the Space Force has slashed bureaucracy at every level, accelerated acquisition timelines and expanded space domain cooperation with industry, allies and partners, according to the Space Force chief.

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“The domain of space accounts for just 2% of the entire DOD budget. That 2% underwrites the design of the entire joint force. DOD cannot afford, nor does it have the time, to build a joint force that can win without space,” he said. 

The threat demands balancing investments across four broad areas, Raymond notes. “First, we have to defend the architecture that we rely on today. Secondly, we have to shift to a more defendable architecture. Third, we must evolve offensive capability to be able to deny benefits and impose costs on our adversaries. And finally, the Space Force has to look at what other missions should go to space, now that technology allows us to do so and launch costs have gone down, so we can do it more effectively and efficiently.”

Missile warning capabilities need to evolve into survivable architectures, he said. The U.S. also needs to modernize across the entire GPS architecture to deliver assured precision, navigation and timing capabilities in denied environments. Command and control capabilities must also be upgraded to meet the growing threat.

“We’re making rapid progress, but it’s just the beginning and there’s a lot of good work to do. We cannot innovate at speed on our own. Rapid and cost effective modernization will require a closer relationship with industry,” he noted.

Those points have also been made by the new Secretary of Defense, Lloyd J. Austin III.  He has testified that the growth of Chinese and Russian counter space capabilities presents the most immediate and serious threats to U.S. allied and partner space activities. Additionally, defense officials note, Russia and China view space as critical to modern warfare and consider the use of counterspace capabilities as both a means of reducing U.S. military effectiveness and winning future wars.

A “space conflict” would not be a war distinct from terrestrial war, but would represent ”an extension of traditional armed conflict into the space domain.

Photo: Department of Defense

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Foreign Policy Update

NORTHERN TRIANGLE

The United States is committing $4 billion to the countries in the Northern Triangle area of Latin America to combat corruption, migration issues, democracy and human rights. Accord to Julie Chung, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, the State Department is working out the details of the president’s proposed program.

NICARAGUA

“The United States has been very concerned about the situation in Nicaragua, the oppression of people, of freedom of press, of civil society and human rights defenders,” according to Acting Assistant Secretary Chung. She noted that  Costa Rica has been a strong partner within the OAS framework and has called for democracy and human rights in Nicaragua. She added that in Washington there are big concerns about elections being planned for later this year and whether the right conditions are there for those free and fair elections.

HONG KONG

The Chinese government continues to undermine the democratic institutions of Hong Kong, denying Hong Kong residents the rights that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) itself has guaranteed, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken. In a statement release by the Department this week, the Secretary said that “The Hong Kong Legislative Council (LegCo) passage on May 27 of new measures that alter the composition of the LegCo and Election Commission severely constrains people in Hong Kong from meaningfully participating in their own governance and having their voices heard.” 

Decreasing Hong Kong residents’ electoral representation, according to Blinken, will not foster long-term political and social stability for Hong Kong.  The legislation defies the Basic Law’s clear acknowledgment that the ultimate objective is the election of all members of the LegCo by universal suffrage.  He called on China and the Hong Kong authorities to allow the voices of all Hong Kongers to be heard.

 EGYPT

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Secretary Blinken met in Cairo with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to convey President Biden’s appreciation to President Sisi for Egypt’s critical mediation efforts in support of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and other groups in Gaza and for Egypt’s help in evacuating American citizens to safety. Blinken reaffirmed the strong strategic partnership between the United States and Egypt, and President Biden’s commitment to the relationship and America’s commitment to Egypt’s water security and resolution of the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The Nile River accounts for 97% of Egypt’s supply of freshwater.

GAZA

In a press briefing this week in the Middle East, Blinken said that “The most urgent thing is humanitarian assistance for the people in Gaza, and particularly water, sanitation, electricity.” Beyond that he suggested reconstruction and rebuilding as additional priorities. Blinken said he wants to see reduced tensions and the building of more trust. On Tuesday, Washington announced it is in the process of providing more than $360 million of assistance to the Palestinian people.  It includes nearly $40 million in new assistance that is directed primarily to support the humanitarian efforts in the West Bank and Gaza.  The new assistance includes nearly $33 million for UNRWA in support of the West Bank and Gaza operations, an additional five and a half million for humanitarian partners.

ISRAEL

When asked in a television interview this week when President Biden planned to visit Israel, Secretary Blinken said: “I don’t have the time, I don’t have the date….” He added that anti-Semitic acts of violence are on the rise in the United States and that this is not a good sign.

BELARUSThe forced diversion of a flight between two EU member states and the subsequent removal and arrest of journalist Raman Pratasevich in Minsk drew sharp condemnation from the State Department this week. “We demand his immediate release. This shocking act perpetrated by the Lukashenka regime endangered the lives of more than 120 passengers, including U.S. citizens,” said Secretary Blinken. Initial reports suggested the involvement of the Belarusian security services and the use of Belarusian military aircraft to escort the plane are deeply concerning and require full investigation. Given indications the forced landing was based on false pretenses, the US is calling for the earliest possible meeting of the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization to review the events.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department..

Illustration: Pixabay

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China Planning Major Ecological Disaster

China is busy planning a treacherous mega project that could emerge as a critical new battlefield among three armed nuclear states and potentially impact the entire planet.

While the West concentrates on responding to increasingly aggressive Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea, Beijing is covertly active elsewhere. Far from prying eyes, high in the Himalayan Mountains on the Tibetan plateau bordering India, China is prepping to create a mega project that, if completed, will likely serve as ground zero for the world’s worst ecological and geopolitical disaster. The area is so pristine and remote that the first, year-round, road into the region was built only eight years ago.

China’s President, Xi Jinping, is vying for the jugular in an attempt to control Asia, and indirectly the rest of the world. His infrastructure plan could impact, without employing much hyperbole, everyone. Ask what is critical to life and also extremely limited in Asia. It’s drinking water and the nutrients carried in river sediment that create the fertile Asian agricultural plains. The headwaters of the Himalayan Mountains serve to moderate monsoonal flooding, too, downstream. 

The mountains provide water supporting 47% of the world’s population. The Himalayan ice deposits support major tributaries, including the Indus, Ganges, Brahmanputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. Chinese scientists and politicians are considering building the world’s largest mega dam with more than three times the hydropower output of Three Gorges Dam, the greatest now in existence. When China completed in 2006, Three Gorges was the largest dam ever built and an ecological and historical disaster, wiping out hundreds of thousands of homes and irreplaceable historical sites. It displaced between 1.3-1.9 million Chinese people. 

To put it in perspective, Three Gorges is so large that NASA calculated it slowed the rotation of the earth by .06 milliseconds. The new Himalayan Motuo Hydropower Station, as proposed, would bore a tunnel through two of the highest Himalayan Mountains to divert water from the Brahmanputra and Yarlung Tsanpo Rivers, which drop over 1.24 miles in elevation in a short distance. China would use the elevation change to create immense hydropower. The river canyon at the proposed site is three times as deep as the Grand Canyon in the United States at 17,388 feet and the world’s longest at over 310 miles in length. It also is identified by ecologists as a biodiversity hotspot.

Contestation over the region dates back to the 18th and 19th century when British soldiers pressed northward and the Qing bureaucrats from China pressed southward into what the dynasty called Zangnan, or southern Tibet. The region was later seized by China in the 1950’s. India has disputed the border since that period with minor skirmishes popping up from time to time. More recently China began sending troops into the area again, remilitarizing what had been a negotiated calm.

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The Motuo Hydropower mega project was mentioned in China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan draft set to be discussed at the 100-year, anniversary meeting of the Chinese Communist Party this July in Beijing. According to University of Melbourne Professor Mark Wang, its mention is a clear indication China will go ahead with the project. “If they list something, even it’s impossible, that will get done. I’m 120 percent sure of that,” he said.   

Given Chinese President Xi Jinping’s desire to create a lasting legacy as a world leader who is as powerful as Mao himself, analysts must consider how China could use the proposed Motuo Hydropower Station to cement Xi’s global ambitions. Controlling the water supply supporting 47% of the world’s population certainly lends credence to Xi’s repetitive statements that he intends to “remake the world in China’s image.” India justifiably fears China will weaponize the water and hurt its population and the region’s fragile ecologies. Both countries are nuclear armed states. No one knows how far China will go to dominate the subcontinent or how India will respond if China curtails the flow of water.


Violent fights over water rights are not new: from ownership of Nile Basin water resources to disputed irrigation plans for the Euphrates-Tigris Bain shared by Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Given China’s predilection for aggressive, long-term planning and action, the slow violence of state-building and militarization of water redistribution in the Himalayan Mountains cannot be overlooked simply due to the remoteness of its headwaters or the lack of transparency by the Chinese government planners. On the Chinese side of the border Beijing is building military-grade roads and state-of-the-art railroads that cross permafrost. Its competitive territorialization of the region disregards the transboundary ecological systems and the billions of humans living downstream. If Xi Jinping decides to weaponize water, the whole world will pay a high price, not just those in the lower reaches.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: Tibet Discovery.com

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Putsch, American Style

In the nightmares of our collective political imagining, our freedom is lost to jackbooted men strutting down any town’s Main Street. It’s not happening that way, but the danger is just as real.

The more subtle tactics of dishonesty, propaganda, censorship, and the undermining of normal Constitutional order, it turns out, are more effective on American soil than beerhall putsches. Over the past dozen years, what could not be achieved through revolution or at the ballot box has made worrisome progress through the extraordinary domination of key influential institutions by progressive extremists.

Consider the overwhelming alterations in our schools, where “Woke” curriculum reigns supreme. Examine our justice system, where a number of district attorneys and states’ attorneys generals, elected with the heavy financial assistance of left wing campaign contributions abuse their office for partisan political purposes. Watch nightly television “entertainment,” where propaganda is inserted in everything from detective shows to late night comedy talk programs. Look at news media, whether online, in print, or over the airwaves, where anything differing from progressive orthodoxy is frequently censored.

There have been no melodramatic episodes of book burning, but a similar effect has been accomplished by driving moderate and conservative teachers and professors out of education, while students not agreeing with left wing ideas are harassed and segregated into “free speech zones.” Social media giants censor out non-Progressive users and ideas. The most commonly used search engines hide or ignore results that reflect accurate information that counters extremist propaganda. 

Americans have endured the ascension of a political, media, and educational class that has contempt for their fellow citizens. Some elected officials vote for the taxpayers to pay for private protection for them, while defunding police forces. Congress passes laws establishing second-rate health care systems that they are exempt from.

The keystone concept of transparent, honest elections has become anathema. Illogical arguments abound against maintaining accurate voter rolls, having voters prove their identity with appropriate identification, and securing truthful mail-in ballots.

Dissatisfaction by those elites with the current population has led to an open border policy, in which massive numbers of noncitizens are lured into the nation with the expectation that they will receive generous benefits. Americans who have paid for Medicare, Social Security, and educational programs throughout their lives are expected to happily empty federal, state and local treasuries to finance their replacement with foreigners. 

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In Washington, every bedrock foundation of American Constitutional order is under relentless attack. Freedom of Speech is considered subject to not hurting Progressive’s feelings. The Second Amendment is an endangered species. The Ninth and Tenth Amendments, which reserve those powers not specifically given to the federal government to the people and the states, are viewed as little more than an anachronism.

In a 2018 article in The Week, national correspondent Ryan Cooper wrote: “The American Constitution is an outdated, malfunctioning piece of junk — and it’s only getting worse.” Elena Kagan, refused to acknowledge the inherent concept of inalienable rights during her 2010 confirmation hearing.

That, indeed, is the crux of the matter.  America was founded on the concept that the individual, not the government, was sovereign.  The whole purpose of the Bill of Rights was to protect the people from government.  But in the twisted logic of the Left, the rights of the individual are subject to the current will of the federal government.

Very recently, the scope of the attack on the Constitutional structure has been breathtaking. The electoral college, which protects the rights of citizens within smaller states, has been vigorously assaulted. Similarly, the concept of a Senate with equal representation from each state has been harshly criticized. There is a powerful move afoot to pack the U.S. Supreme Court to ensure that Leftists win every case.

No mustachioed, strutting figure has made an overt attempt to publicly overthrow the Constitution. But the multifaceted, subtle assault by the Progressive Left is just as real and even more dangerous.

Illustration: Pixabay

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End of the Mask-erade Part 2

Judge John Wilson (ret.)

It is also no secret that minorities have more hesitancy about taking the vaccine than white people.  According to WebMD, “African Americans have nearly the lowest rates of vaccination among any ethnic group. In fact, white Americans are being vaccinated at a rate 3 times higher than Black Americans. New CDC figures show that of those who have received at least the first dose of a vaccine, 5.4% are Black people, compared to 60% who are white people…”  One woman was asked why she would not get the vaccine.  She said, “I’m not a person who clings on to conspiracy theories, but I simply do not trust the government at this point.”  She cited to the “stain of the Tuskegee Study, the Henrietta Lacks case, and other examples of how Black people have been treated…(which) makes her skeptical. In the Tuskegee experiments, Black men with syphilis were promised treatment but didn’t receive it. Many of the men died, went blind, or developed other serious health issues. Henrietta Lacks’ cancer cells were used for medical research without her or her family’s knowledge, and without financial compensation.” 

Hence, the new CDC rules – get vaccinated, and you can take off your mask.

Except for when you can’t.  Despite the new recommendations, giving up that mask is impossible for some in authority.  For instance, when asked if the mask mandate will be lifted in the House of Representatives, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stated, “No. Are they all vaccinated?”  According to the Washington Post, “(u)pdated guidelines issued…by Brian P. Monahan, the attending physician to Congress, say that the mask mandate will continue on the House floor ‘until all Members and floor staff are fully vaccinated.’” 

This translates to never, since “(t)hree months after vaccinations were made available to all members of Congress, about 1 in 4 members of the House have not received the shots… Democrats have rejected the notion from Republicans that a 75 percent vaccination rate is a sufficient level to reopen the House of Representatives.” 

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Giving credence to the belief that Pelosi and the Democrats merely enjoy the power that comes with enforcing mask mandates, according to the New York Times, “(s)ince the start of the pandemic, the figure that many epidemiologists have offered has been 60 to 70 percent (for “Herd immunity”). That range is still cited by the World Health Organization and is often repeated during discussions of the future course of the disease.” 

Another state which has chosen to ignore the CDC’s new guidelines is Hawaii.  “Gov. David Ige is bucking CDC guidance on mask wearing for fully vaccinated residents, saying he’ll keep his mask mandate in place for now…(t)he governor also acknowledged that while it ‘may be OK and safe’ for vaccinated individuals to forgo a mask in public, keeping the mandate in place benefits the broader community… The governor’s sentiments are in stark contrast to national trends ― and in opposition to Lt. Gov. Josh Green’s own opinion on the issue.  Green told Hawaii News Now…that he believes the state’s mask mandate should be lifted for fully vaccinated residents.  Lifting the mandate, he said, is ‘part of the process to return to normalcy and to trust the vaccines. It will have an impact as we go forward in having people do the right thing.’” 

Will the CDC’s strategy work?  Will lifting the mask guideline encourage people to get the vaccine?


In Fayetteville, Ark., Richard McGinnis and his staff at Richard’s Country Meat Market have had some difficult conversations already… McGinnis is skeptical of the idea that lifting mask mandates will encourage vaccine holdouts to get the shot. ‘If they’re not going to, they’re not going to,’ he said. ‘There’s vaccines sitting on the shelves. They could have one this afternoon if they want one.’  Still, he’s not worried about unvaccinated people coming into the store. He and his employees are all fully vaccinated and therefore, according to the CDC, protected. He welcomed last week’s change in CDC guidance as it finally made clear why vaccinations are important. If you still had to wear a mask after getting vaccinated, he’d wondered, what was the point?” 

Illustration: Pixabay

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The Beginning of the End of the Mask-erade

Written by the distinguished jurist, John Wilson (ret.)

The announcement came with a general sigh of relief nationwide; “(F)ully vaccinated people no longer need to wear a mask or physically distance in any setting,” The Center for Disease Control stated in the middle of May.  “Fully vaccinated people can… (r)esume activities without wearing masks or physically distancing… (r)esume domestic travel and refrain from testing before or after travel or self-quarantine after travel…(r)efrain from testing before leaving the United States for international travel…and refrain from self-quarantine after arriving back in the United States.” 

But there are some very large caveats involved with this guidance; “except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance,” and in the case of international travel, testing can be refrained from, “unless required by the destination.” 

This sudden change came as a shock to most Americans.  Just three months ago, when the Governors of Texas and Mississippi removed state mask mandates, President Biden said, “The last thing — the last thing — we need is the Neanderthal thinking that in the meantime, everything’s fine, take off your mask. Forget it. It still matters.”  Predictably, “Gilberto Hinojosa, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, called Abbott’s decision ‘extremely dangerous’ and referred to him as ‘the worst governor in modern Texas history.’  ‘This will kill Texans,’ Hinojosa said in a statement. ‘Our country’s infectious disease specialists have warned that we should not put our guard down even as we make progress towards vaccinations.'” 

Despite this hysterical rhetoric, and after more than a year of demanding that Americans wear masks in every possible social setting, indoors and out, the CDC abruptly turned an about face. Why?  Did the science change?  Have enough people been vaccinated that the legendary “herd immunity” has occurred?

More likely than not, the CDC made the change to avoid embarrassing itself any further, and to encourage people to actually get the vaccine.

Recently, The Atlantic revealed that “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is…combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus…(t)he agency confirmed…that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons…(t)his is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points.”    

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Further, “(i)n a report that challenges widely accepted COVID-19 prevention guidelines, researchers (from MIT) say there’s ‘little benefit’ to health officials’ ‘6-foot rule,’ especially when wearing masks inside… the amount of time spent indoors with an infected person is more important than the distance you are from them — a factor that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization have overlooked…MIT engineering professor Martin Bazant, who authored the study, said… “What our analysis continues to show is that many spaces that have been shut down in fact don’t need to be. Oftentimes the space is large enough, the ventilation is good enough, the amount of time people spend together is such that those spaces can be safely operated even at full capacity and the scientific support for reduced capacity in those spaces is really not very good.” 

These revelations are embarrassing enough, and would justify a rethinking of the recommendations made by the CDC which relied upon such faulty data.  But the other reason for the agency’s change in position is revealed by former New York Lieutenant Governor Betsy McCaughey, writing in the New York Post; “Even less scientific than the 6-foot rule is the (CDC’s) guidance for the fully vaccinated. The agency tells them to ‘continue to wear masks, maintain physical distance and practice other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people.’  That guidance eliminates a major incentive for getting the shots in the first place and will slow America’s recovery. Infections among the vaccinated do occur, but very rarely, and serious illness is even rarer. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines reduce the risk of developing COVID by 90 to 95 percent, compared with being unvaccinated. US data show the risk of getting infected after these vaccines is a minuscule 0.008 percent.” 

In other words, why should I get a vaccine if I still have to maintain social distance, and stay quarantined with a mask on?

Even the CDC must have noticed this sort of thinking was becoming prevalent.  “More than 5 million Americans have skipped out on their second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, according to The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention…(a)pproximately 141 million, or about 43% of Americans, have received at least one dose of the vaccine so far and 29% of Americans have been fully vaccinated, according to the (CDC).” 

Obviously, then, if you want to encourage people to take the vaccine, you have to give them some incentive.  This is especially true after Democrats like Kamala Harris publicly stated they had no trust in the vaccine, since it was developed under the Trump Administration. 

Judge Wilson’s analysis concludes tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

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Great Power Politics is Back in Fashion.

Great power politics is back in fashion. 

It isn’t a short-term trend or fad; it is the solemn political reality we face today. Russia and China have partnered to push their agenda on the world. Together they intend to knock the United States out of its premier position as leader of the free world and then remake the world in their image. When Ronald Reagan held office in the 1980’s, he labelled the Soviet Union “the evil empire” and led the free world in restraining its aggressive and repressive policies. Today, we are entering a second Cold War period as Moscow and Beijing have teemed up to stop the West from supporting the cause of freedom and fledgling democratic states. 

We hear a lot about Chinese military aggression, but what is Russia up to these days? Has it changed its behavior since the days when Mikhail Gorbachev called for accommodation with the West? Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. General Scott D. Berrier, testified before the US Senate Armed Services Committee recently that the two communist giants will be key adversaries within the next two decades in the area of high-technology weaponry. According to Berrier, any of the three main powers, the US, China, or Russia, will possess the most “disruptive” military technologies by 2030-2035. According to Berrier, the new weapons or concepts “will change the character of warfare.” Russian power is not going away. 

Russia’s current President, Vladimir Putin, has promised his people a return to the “glory days” of the Russian Empire. He is working hard to make it the new Russian reality. Before becoming president, Putin held the rank of lieutenant colonel as a KGB intelligence officer for 15 years. He then assumed the position of prorector of Leningrad State University, mayor of St. Petersburg, and onto to political positions in Moscow. He is a savvy public politician and a brilliant strategist when it comes to operating behind the scenes. Putin views his partnership with President Xi Jinping as one that provides Russia with the needed financial resources from energy exports and military sales. Russian missile technology still is better than what China possesses. Putin knows this won’t last for long and recognizes he has to take advantage of the situation now. He needs the money to fund his military buildup to make Russia whole again.

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To avert an outright conflict with the United States, Berrier says that Russia has adopted a strategy of targeting military technologies to “match, counter, or offset” US capabilities and those of its other adversaries, rather than pursing pure R&D research inside its “massive” military-industrial complex. Berrier wrote in the DIA report to Congress that Moscow has the ability to produce “large numbers of weapons” today while also expanding its ability to develop cutting-edge technologies. At issue, he says, it that Russia is “challenged both organizationally and technically”  to manufacture the “high-tech subcomponents required for advanced weapons” due to “severe funding, resource, and infrastructure constraints” in the S&T sector.

Does that make Russia less dangerous than a rising China? Berrier says that what is means is Putin will rely more heavily on a profusion of new-style nuclear weapons unlike those possessed by the West. Last fall Russia conducted live drills using battlefield nuclear weapons. Their small size may lower the threshold for their use. Putin also has in his inventory an undersea version capable of creating a tsunami that could inundate and destroy infrastructure along vast stretches of the US coastline. Add to this Russian space and counterspace capabilities and cyberspace weapons, and the answer is that Russia remains a formidable power capable of impacting the US and the West should it choose to use its power. The free world must plan for a worst case scenario while hoping for a best case situation.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  She regularly presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Foreign Policy Update

ISRAEL

In a recent interview Secretary Blinken said that “President Biden believes, and that is that the best and ultimately only way forward, really, is through a two states [solution]… first, Israel as a Jewish and democratic state is going to have truly lasting security through two states, and the Palestinians would get the state that they’re entitled to.  That also means that any steps that anyone takes – unilateral steps that anyone takes – that make the prospect of two states even more challenging than it already is, we oppose, and we’ve also been very clear about that.” 

ARCTIC COUNCIL

Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended the 12th Arctic Council Ministerial meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland, with foreign ministers from all eight Arctic States. All signed onto the 2021 joint declaration reaffirming the Council’s commitment to maintain peace, stability, and constructive cooperation in the Arctic region, emphasizing Arctic States’ unique position to promote responsible governance in the region, and asserting the importance of immediately addressing the climate crisis in the Arctic.  Recently, the region has become a focus of potential great power competition as the Northern Passageway presents the potential of creating a shorter maritime passage to Europe from Asia. Advanced technologies now available also make it possible to excavate the region’s vast undersea mineral and energy resources. While there Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov discussed Russia’s Arctic Council Chairmanship and the importance of cooperation given the two countries shared stake in the region. 

RUSSIA

Secretary Blinken while attending the Arctic Council meetings said that the United States “seeks a predictable, stable relationship with Russia.” According to Blinken, it is good for the US and the Russian people. He added that “It’s also no secret that we have our differences. And when it comes to those differences, as President Biden has also shared with President Putin, if Russia acts aggressively against us, our partners, our allies, we’ll respond.  And President Biden has demonstrated that in both word and deed – not for purposes of escalation, not to seek conflict, but to defend our interests.”

Blinken also acknowledged that there are many areas where Washington and Msoscow’s interests intersect and overlap. “Whether it is dealing with COVID-19 and the pandemic, combatting climate change, dealing with the nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea, Afghanistan, there are many areas of intersecting interests,” he said.

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BURMA

On Tuesday, May 18th, in Geneva, the United States announced nearly $155 million in new humanitarian aid for Rohingya refugees and affected host communities in Bangladesh at the launch of the 2021 Joint Response Plan for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis. The Deputy Spokesman for the State Department, Jalina Porter, said that of the $155 million more than $138 million is for programs inside Bangladesh. That brings the United States’  total assistance for the crisis response since August 2017 to more than $1.3 billion.

“This funding will sustain the efforts of our partners to provide life-saving assistance to affected communities on both sides of the Burma-Bangladesh border, including the nearly 900,000 Rohingya refugees who have taken refuge in Bangladesh – some 740 million of whom arrived since 2017, when they were forced to flee ethnic cleansing and other horrific atrocities and abuses in Burma’s Rakhine State, according to Porter. The funding also is expected to provide assistance to more than 470,000 Bangladeshi host community members and to others affected by the ongoing violence in Burma.

TURKEY

Ned Price, State Department Spokesman, said the United States “strongly condemns President Erdogan’s recent anti-Semitic comments regarding the Jewish people and finds them reprehensible.” He added that Washington is urging “President Erdogan and other Turkish leaders to refrain from incendiary remarks, which could incite further violence. We call on Turkey to join the United States in working to end the conflict.” 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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The China Debt Trap

You’ve probably heard of the movie, Money Pit, in which Tom Hanks and Shelley Long, playing his wife, purchase a country home in need of repair for a very low price, only to find out later on it is a financial trap, and not a great deal. Sri Lankan government officials in Colombo must not have seen the movie before they met with officials from a consortium led by Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE), China Merchant Port Holdings Company, in 2011. They were presented with a financial offer they could not refuse, to develop the Colombo International Container Terminal and in another, funds to develop the port at Hambantota.

Sri Lanka is a small island nation that lies off the south east tip of India. Most Americans would have trouble pointing it out on a map. Fewer still would recognize it as a strategic asset sitting between India and China. Beijing, however, is keenly aware of the country and its importance to China’s maritime Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) linking the Asian communist giant to Western markets. A Chinese consortium agreed to initially invest $500 million in a Sri Lankan project to build the first state of the art deep water terminal in South Asia, in exchange for 85% ownership of the facility. The port also is critical to India as 40% of transshipped container cargo heading to that country passes through the nation.

A twin Sri Lankan project that China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC) is developing is the $1.4 billion Hambantota Port on the southern tip of the island, along with additional land reclamation that eventually will add up to a $13 billion investment to build a world-class financial and trade center, according to Jamestown Foundation’s May 7, 2021, China Brief. The port facilities at Hambantota, which quickly proved unprofitable, were handed over to China when Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt payment to China. Under the foreclosure agreement China received a 99-year lease on the port.

Sri Lankans today are concerned about China’s rapidly growing influence in the area. Other countries also are worried about what China plans militarily in the Indian Ocean region. Sri Lanka easily fell into China’s “debt trap” when its SEO consortium intentionally loaned the country more money than it knew the island nation could afford to repay. Presumably, Beijing did so with the intention of eventually foreclosing on Hambantota and using it as a naval facility. The top CCP leadership, including President Xi Jinping, see the port as a key link in its maritime BRI. It will potentially provide China with a maritime presence in the Indian Ocean and an increased ability for intelligence operations overseeing US activities at the American naval facility on Diego Garcia. China’s navy also could use it to launch patrols of the Indian Ocean shipping lanes. 

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Last year China used its so-called “maritime BRI” to import 542 million tons of crude oil. Over 53% of China’s crude originates in the Middle East and is carried on tankers through the Indian Ocean to ports in China. Xi Jinping views it as a national security issue since other nations currently control the maritime route. Recognition of the concern was formalized first in a 2015 Defense White Paper linking the route to national economic and security issues. According to www.gov.cn, a Chinese government web site, “The traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned, and great importance has to be attached to managing the seas and ocean and protecting maritime right and interests.” The Sri Lankan ports are part of China’s long-term “String of Pearls” strategy for creating military and economic links across the world in support of its hegemonic goals. 

While Sri Lanka has not yet granted Chinese submarines permission to dock there since 2014, China did give its navy a gift of a frigate in 2019 further linking the two countries, according to a Jamestown Foundation report. In the case of the Sri Lankan debt equity swap, local government officials have grown wary of Chinese intentions and want to renegotiate the deal. It has not transpired. By 2019 China surpassed India in cumulative infrastructure investment in the country equivalent to 14% of the country’s GDP. This top-down prioritization of investment in Sri Lanka stems from Beijing’s 40-year effort to make military and economic inroads in the region. This pattern of coercive overseas investment is found in many countries of strategic importance to China. The Chinese debt trap strategy is proving to be an effective top down policy for the CCP. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Quick Analysis

Russian Arctic Threat Grows

According to American Military News, Satellite images released in April revealed Russia has been expanding its military bases along its Arctic coastline and its Nagurskoye airfield on the Alexandra Land island in the Arctic.

Russia has also been using its Arctic facilities to test new weapons, including the Poseidon 2M39 nuclear torpedo, a device launched from an Arctic-based vessel designed to create a tsunami along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. coastline.

Russia is the dominant presence in the Arctic, and China is a player by calling itself, without much accuracy, a “near-Arctic nation.” But the U.S. is going to need to develop more “persistence” in the region if it wants to be a player there, according to the commander of U.S. Northern Command.

“To compete in the Arctic, you have to be on the field,” said Air Force Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, who also commands the North American Aerospace Defense Command, during a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee. “And currently, our capabilities, I would assess that we’re in the game plan development [stage]. We’re not able to have the persistence that I need to compete day-to-day in the Arctic.”

The general said the U.S. military, along with the Canadian Armed Forces, are now in the early stages of modernization in building additional military capabilities in the Arctic. A priority for VanHerck, he said is domain awareness.

“It starts with the ability to communicate and provide data and information so that we can operate and have persistence in the Arctic,” he said, thanking lawmakers for $46 million in funding the department received toward that effort.

He said the U.S. currently has 10 satellites in orbit that help with that domain awareness.

But communications and domain awareness are only part of the picture, he said. Perhaps even more critical is actually having presence on the water there.

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Russia has 46 ice cutters, including seven that are nuclear powered, and 12 more are under construction. Although China isn’t an Arctic nation, they have two ice cutters and another under construction. The U.S. Coast Guard has a mere two ice cutters.

Cleary, the U.S. Navy and the Coast Guard are overmatched by Russia’s naval and ice-based strength in the strategic region, a fact that produces extraordinary danger for both America and Canada.

VanHerck said Russia has reopened and strengthened Cold War military installations that were once shuttered. “They absolutely have a vested interest in the Arctic, and they also want to ensure that it’s secure for their efforts…” he notes.

China is not actually in the Arctic, but considers itself a “near Arctic” nation and seeks increased influence there, Both Russia and China are interested in changing international rules-based norms to better serve themselves, he said.

“It’s incumbent upon us to be persistent, working with allies and partners and like-minded nations to ensure that we maintain the consistency of the international rules-based norms and laws that have served us well over time,” General Vanherck stressed.

The challenge has been building for several years. In 2018, NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller noted that “NATO must be more active in the area… there are real military challenges developing to which the NATO alliance has not paid sufficient attention for many, many years and we need to up our game…”

The U.S. has only two icebreakers committed to the Arctic, while Russia has forty. The U.S. Naval Institute quotes Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Paul Zuknft’s statement in support of new icebreakers:“If you do not have presence to exert sovereignty, you’re a paper lion.”

Photo: Version of a Russian military helicopter, specifically designed for Arctic use (Russian Defence Ministry)