Month: October 2020

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Chinese Military Power Causes Massive Concern, Part 4

Capabilities for Counter Intervention and Power Projection

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government concludes its summary of the Pentagon report, China Military Power 2020.

The PLA is developing capabilities to provide options for the PRC to dissuade, deter, or, if ordered, defeat third-party intervention during a large-scale, theater campaign such as a Taiwan contingency.

 The PLA’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities are currently the most robust within the First Island Chain, although the PRC aims to strengthen its capabilities to reach farther into the Pacific Ocean.

The PRC also continues to increase its military capabilities to achieve regional and global security objectives beyond a Taiwan contingency.

The PLA is developing the capabilities and operational concepts to conduct offensive operations within the Second Island Chain, in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and in some cases, globally. In addition to strike, air and missile defense, anti-surface and anti-submarine capabilities improvements, China is focusing on information, cyber, and space and counterspace operations.

Nuclear Deterrence

 China’s strategic ambitions, evolving view of the security landscape, and concerns over survivability are driving significant changes to the size, capabilities, and readiness of its nuclear forces.

China’s nuclear forces will significantly evolve over the next decade as it modernizes, diversifies, and increases the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms.

 Over the next decade, China’s nuclear warhead stockpile—currently estimated to be in the low200s—is projected to at least double in size as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces.

China is pursuing a “nuclear triad” with the development of a nuclear capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) and improving its ground and sea-based nuclear capabilities.

New developments in 2019 further suggest that China intends to increase the peacetime readiness of its nuclear forces by moving to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture with an expanded silo-based force.

THE PLA’S GROWING GLOBAL PRESENCE

CCP leaders believe that the PRC’s global activities, including the PLA’s growing global presence, are necessary to create a “favorable” international environment for China’s national rejuvenation.

 The CCP has tasked the PLA to develop the capability to project power outside China’s borders and immediate periphery to secure the PRC’s growing overseas interests and advance its foreign policy goals.

China’s Global Military Activities

The PRC has increasingly recognized that its armed forces should take a more active role in advancing its foreign policy goals.

As the PRC’s overseas interests have grown over the past two decades, the Party’s leaders have increasingly pushed the PLA to think about how it will operate beyond China’s borders and its immediate periphery to advance and defend these interests.

 In 2019, the PLA continued to expand its participation in bilateral and multilateral military exercises, normalize its presence overseas, and build closer ties to foreign militaries.

PLA Overseas Basing and Access

The PRC is seeking to establish a more robust overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances.

 Beyond its current base in Djibouti, the PRC is very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas military logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces. The PRC has likely considered locations for PLA military logistics facilities in Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan. The PRC and Cambodia have publicly denied having signed an agreement to provide the PLAN with access to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base.

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 A global PLA military logistics network could interfere with U.S. military operations and provide flexibility to support offensive operations against the United States.

The PRC’s Influence Operations

The PRC conducts influence operations to achieve outcomes favorable to its strategic objectives by targeting cultural institutions, media organizations, business, academic, and policy communities in the United States, other countries, and international institutions.

The CCP seeks to condition domestic, foreign, and multilateral political establishments and public opinion to accept Beijing’s narratives.

CCP leaders probably consider open democracies, including the United States, as more susceptible to influence operations than other types of governments.

RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY FOR FORCE MODERNIZATION

The PRC’s long-term goal is to create an entirely self-reliant defense-industrial sector—fused with a strong civilian industrial and technology sector—that can meet the PLA’s needs for modern military capabilities.

The PRC has mobilized vast resources in support of its defense modernization, including the implementation of its MCF Development Strategy, as well as espionage activities to acquire sensitive, dual-use, and military-grade equipment.

In 2019, the PRC announced its annual military budget would increase by 6.2 percent, continuing more than 20 years of annual defense spending increases and sustaining its position as the second-largest military spender in the world. The PRC’s published military budget omits several major categories of expenditures and its actual military-related spending is higher than what it states in its official budget.

Science and Technology Goals Supporting Military Modernization

China seeks to become a leader in key technologies with military potential, such as AI, autonomous systems, advanced computing, quantum information sciences, biotechnology, and advanced materials and manufacturing.

China has invested significant resources to fund research and subsidize companies involved in strategic S&T fields while pressing private firms, universities, and provincial governments to cooperate with the military in developing advanced technologies.

China continues to undermine the integrity of the U.S. science and technology research enterprise through a variety of actions such as hidden diversions of research, resources, and intellectual property.

Foreign Technology Acquisition

The PRC pursues many vectors to acquire foreign technologies, including both licit and illicit means. The PRC’s efforts include a range of practices and methods to acquire sensitive and dual-use technologies and military-grade equipment to advance its military modernization goals.

The PRC leverages foreign investments, commercial joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, and state-sponsored industrial and technical espionage, and the manipulation of export controls for the illicit diversion of dual-use technologies to increase the level of technologies and expertise available to support military research, development, and acquisition.

In 2019, the PRC’s efforts included efforts to acquire dynamic random access memory, aviation, and anti-submarine warfare technologies.

U.S.-CHINA DEFENSE CONTACTS AND EXCHANGES IN 2019

U.S. defense contacts and exchanges conducted in 2019 supported overall U.S. policy and strategy toward China, were focused on reducing risk and preventing misunderstanding in times of crisis, and were conducted in accordance with the statutory limitations of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, as amended.

Pursuit of a constructive results-oriented relationship with China is an important part of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region. The 2018 National Defense Strategy seeks areas of cooperation with China from positions of U.S. strength, with a long-term aim to set the military-to military relationship on a path of strategic transparency and non-aggression, and to encourage China to act in a manner consistent with the free and open international order.

Photo: A Fighter jet attached to an aviation brigade of the air force under the PLA Eastern Theater Command takes off for a sortie during a round-the-clock flight training exercise on August 30, 2020. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zhang Shu and Xu Yifan)

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Chinese Military Power Causes Massive Concern Part 3

Because the media has largely ignored the looming potential military crisis with China, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government is providing key excerpts from an unclassified Pentagon study of the challenge.

Defense Policy & Military Strategy

The PRC has stated its defense policy aims to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests. China’s military strategy remains based on the concept of “active defense.”

In 2019, the PLA remained primarily oriented towards longstanding regional threats while emphasizing a greater global role for itself in accordance with China’s defense policy and military strategy.

China’s leaders stress the imperative of meeting key military transformation markers set in 2020 and 2035. These milestones seek to align the PLA’s transformation with China’s overall national modernization so that by the end of 2049, China will field a “world-class” military.

The CCP has not defined what it means by its ambition to have a “world-class” military. Within the context of China’s national strategy, however, it is likely that China will aim to develop a military by mid-century that is equal to—or in some cases superior to—the U.S. military, or that of any other great power that China views as a threat to its sovereignty, security, and development interests.

MISSIONS, TASKS, & MODERNIZATION OF CHINA’S ARMED FORCES IN THE “NEW ERA”

The PRC’s strategy includes advancing a comprehensive military modernization program that aims to “basically” complete military modernization by 2035 and transform the PLA into a “world-class” military by the end of 2049. > The PLA’s evolving capabilities and concepts continue to strengthen the PRC’s ability to counter an intervention by an adversary in the Indo-Pacific region and project power globally.

In 2019, the PLA continued to make progress implementing major structural reforms, fielding modern indigenous systems, building readiness, and strengthening its competency to conduct joint operations. > China has already achieved parity with—or even exceeded—the United States in several military modernization areas, including:

Shipbuilding: The PRC has the largest navy in the world, with an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines including over 130 major surface combatants. In comparison, the U.S. Navy’s battle force is approximately 293 ships as of early 2020. China is the top ship-producing nation in the world by tonnage and is increasing its shipbuilding capacity and capability for all naval classes.

Land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles: The PRC has developed its conventional missile forces unrestrained by any international agreements. The PRC has more than 1,250 ground-launched ballistic missiles (GLBMs) and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The United States currently fields one type of conventional GLBM with a range of 70 to 300 kilometers and no GLCMs.

Integrated air defense systems: The PRC has one of the world’s largest forces of advanced long-range surface-to-air systems—including Russian-built S-400s, S-300s, and domestically produced systems—that constitute part of its robust and redundant integrated air defense system (IADS) architecture.

Developments in the PLA’s Modernization and Reform

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The People’s Liberation Army Army (PLAA) is the largest standing ground force in the world. In 2019, the PLAA continued to transition into a modern, mobile, and lethal ground force by fielding upgraded combat systems and communications equipment and enhancing its ability to conduct and manage complex combined-arms and joint operations.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)—the largest navy in the world—is an increasingly modern and flexible force that has focused on replacing previous generations of platforms with limited capabilities in favor of larger, modern multi-role combatants. As of 2019, the PLAN is largely composed of modern multi-role platforms featuring advanced anti-ship, antiair, and anti-submarine weapons and sensors.

 Naval Shipbuilding and Modernization: The PLAN remains engaged in a robust shipbuilding and modernization program that includes submarines, surface combatants, amphibious warfare ships, aircraft carriers, and auxiliary ships as well as developing and fielding advanced weapons, sensors, and command and control capabilities.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and PLAN Aviation together constitute the largest aviation forces in the region and the third largest in the world, with over 2,500 total aircraft and approximately 2,000 combat aircraft. The PLAAF is rapidly catching up to Western air forces across a broad range of capabilities and competencies.

 The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is responsible for the PRC’s strategic land-based nuclear and conventional missile forces. The PLARF develops and fields a wide variety of conventional mobile ground-launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. The PRC is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces. The number of warheads on the PRC’s land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to roughly 200 in the next five years

The PRC is expanding its inventory of the multi-role DF-26, a mobile, ground-launched intermediate-range ballistic missile system capable of rapidly swapping conventional and nuclear warheads. – The PRC’s robust ground-based conventional missile forces compliment the growing size and capabilities of its air- and sea-based precision strike capabilities.

The PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) is a theater command-level organization established to centralize the PLA’s strategic space, cyber, electronic, and psychological warfare missions and capabilities. The SSF Network Systems Department is responsible for cyberwarfare, technical reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and psychological warfare. Its current major target is the United States.

The PRC’s Space Enterprise. The PRC’s space enterprise continues to mature rapidly. Beijing has devoted significant resources to growing all aspects of its space program, from military space applications to civil applications such as profit-generating launches, scientific endeavors, and space exploration.

The PLA has historically managed the PRC’s space program. The SSF Space Systems Department is responsible for nearly all PLA space operations. – In 2019, the PRC described space as a “critical domain in international strategic competition” and stated the security of space provided strategic assurance to the country’s national and social development.

Military Readiness: In recent years, CCP leaders have directed the PLA to improve its combat readiness. This guidance is increasingly evident in the intensity of the PLA’s training and the complexity and scale of its exercises.

The report concludes tomorrow.

Photo: On August 9, a Y-20 military transport aircraft of the PLA Air Force flew from the Shenyang Taoxian International Airport to Russia with a flight of over 7,600 km, carrying a total of 57 soldiers from the PLA Northern Theater Command to participate in the International Army Games 2020. (China Defence Ministry Photo)

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Chinese Military Power Causes Massive Concern, Part 2

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government continues its excerpts from the new China Military Power 2020 report

The PLA’s objective is to become a “world-class” military by the end of 2049—a goal first announced by General Secretary Xi Jinping in 2017. Although the CCP has not defined what a “world-class” military means, within the context of the PRC’s national strategy it is likely that Beijing will seek to develop a military by mid-century that is equal to—or in some cases superior to—the U.S. military, or that of any other great power that the PRC views as a threat. As this year’s report details, the PRC has marshalled the resources, technology, and political will over the past two decades to strengthen and modernize the PLA in nearly every respect. Indeed, as this report shows, China is already ahead of the United States in certain areas such as:

  • Shipbuilding: The PRC has the largest navy in the world, with an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines including over 130 major surface combatants. In comparison, the U.S. Navy’s battle force is approximately 293 ships as of early 2020.
  • Land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles: The PRC has more than 1,250 groundlaunched ballistic missiles (GLBMs) and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The United States currently fields one type of conventional GLBM with a range of 70 to 300 kilometers and no GLCMs.
  •  Integrated air defense systems: The PRC has one of the world’s largest forces of advanced longrange surface-to-air systems—including Russian-built S-400s, S-300s, and domestically produced systems—that constitute part of its robust and redundant integrated air defense system architecture.
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More striking than the PLA’s staggering amounts of new military hardware are the recent sweeping efforts taken by CCP leaders that include completely restructuring the PLA into a force better suited for joint operations, improving the PLA’s overall combat readiness, encouraging the PLA to embrace new operational concepts, and expanding the PRC’s overseas military footprint.

UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S STRATEGY

China’s National Strategy

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) strategy aims to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049. China’s strategy can be characterized as a determined pursuit of political and social modernity that includes far-ranging efforts to expand China’s national power, perfect its governance systems, and revise the international order.

 The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) frames this strategy as an effort to realize long-held nationalist aspirations to “return” China to a position of strength, prosperity, and leadership on the world stage. > The CCP’s leadership has long viewed China as embroiled in a major international strategic competition with other states, including, and in particular, the United States.

In 2019, China intensified its efforts to advance its overall development including steadying its economic growth, strengthening its armed forces, and taking a more active role in global affairs.

 Foreign Policy

 The PRC’s foreign policy seeks to revise aspects of the international order on the Party’s terms and in accordance with ideas and principles it views as essential to forging an external environment conducive to China’s national rejuvenation.

 In 2019, the PRC recognized that its armed forces should take a more active role in advancing its foreign policy, highlighting the increasingly global character that Beijing ascribes to its military power.

Economic Policy

The CCP prioritizes economic development as the “central task” and the force that drives China’s modernization across all areas, including its armed forces.

 China’s economic development supports its military modernization not only by providing the means for larger defense budgets, but through deliberate Party-led initiatives such as OBOR and Made in China 2025, as well as the systemic benefits of China’s growing national industrial and technological base.

Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) Development Strategy.

The PRC pursues its MCF Development Strategy to “fuse” its economic and social development strategies with its security strategies to build an integrated national strategic system and capabilities in support of China’s national rejuvenation goals.

MCF encompasses six interrelated efforts: (1) fusing the China’s defense industrial base and its civilian technology and industrial base; (2) integrating and leveraging science and technology innovations across military and civilian sectors; (3) cultivating talent and blending military and civilian expertise and knowledge; (4) building military requirements into civilian infrastructure and leveraging civilian construction for military purposes; (5) leveraging civilian service and logistics capabilities for military purposes; and, (6) expanding and deepening China’s national defense mobilization system to include all relevant aspects of its society and economy for use in competition and war.

While MCF has broader purposes than acquiring foreign technology, in practice, MCF means there is not a clear line between the PRC’s civilian and military economies, raising due diligence costs for U.S. and global entities that do not desire to contribute to the PRC’s military modernization.

The report continues tomorrow.

Photo: On August 9, a Y-20 military transport aircraft of the PLA Air Force flew from the Shenyang Taoxian International Airport to Russia with a flight of over 7,600 km, carrying a total of 57 soldiers from the PLA Northern Theater Command to participate in the International Army Games 2020. (China Defense Ministry)

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Post Election Violence

The United States may face unprecedented violence in the last two months of 2020.

If President Trump is re-elected, riots on a massive scale may be billed as a protest against his continued leadership. If Biden succeeds, the Left will seek to ensure that their almost complete takeover of the Democrat Party is solidified. Progressives will demand that, as the price for their support, their most radical policies be adopted. If their demand is not met, they will take it to the streets. Joe Schoffstall, writing for the Washington Free Beacon, notes that the leftist group Fight Back Table is planning for a “post-Election Day political apocalypse scenario.” 


The Democratic Party leadership’s condoning of the aggressive tactics of Antifa and Black Lives Matter has put it in a position of holding a tiger by the tail. This is particularly prevalent in cities with Progressive mayors. Having failed to forcefully condemn the use of violence as a political tool, and having welcomed hard-core socialists into their ranks, they have encouraged the growth of unlawful tactics and the rise to power of those who use them.

Joe Biden is in a particularly tough spot. While he proclaims that he is not Bernie Sanders, he has largely adopted the policies of Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, the same policies that have destroyed nations from Russia to Venezuela.  The mobs that have ransacked American cities from Portland to New York are the power behind the hard left.

Biden would have political constraints in moving forcefully against extremist tactics; he would lose a key base of party’s support. He would certainly lose the support of his own vice-president. Kamala Harris who is widely considered the most leftist senator in Congress. Harris recently stated, regarding the riots, “Nothing that we have achieved that has been about progress, in particular around civil rights, has come without a fight, and so I always am going to interpret these protests as an essential component of evolution in our country — as an essential component or mark of a real democracy,”

Ideologically, it would also be difficult for Biden to reign in the extremists.  The Left has set the stage for violence by opposing all reasonable ballot security measures. It has also, in several states, set up a system of unsecured mail-in ballots that will result in fraudulent votes being cast, which will be successfully challenged in court. Those loses will have the effect of tossing a match into a box of dynamite.  

Trump would not face similar roadblocks if re-elected.  He has made opposition to the violence a centerpiece of his campaign. The GOP, for the most part, has solidly supported that position. Freed from the constraints of the unfavorable coverage the media would provide for a substantial crackdown in an election year, the President would be able to move forcefully to restore order.

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Indeed, the Justice Department already laid the groundwork for a substantive response.  In a September 21 memo, Attorney General Will Barr noted:  

“When state and local leaders impede their own law enforcement officers and agencies from doing their jobs, it endangers innocent citizens who deserve to be protected, including those who are trying to peacefully assemble and protest. We cannot allow federal tax dollars to be wasted when the safety of the citizenry hangs in the balance. It is my hope that the cities identified by the Department of Justice today (which included New York City; Portland, Oregon;  and Seattle, Washington,  Washington will reverse course and become serious about performing the basic function of government and start protecting their own citizens.”

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Chinese Military Power Causes Massive Concern

Largely missing from media reports, the massive buildup of China’s military power has produced a greater and more immediate threat than that posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Starting with today’s overview, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government will provide key excerpts from the troubling 2020 China Military Power report just released.

Over the next 10 years, it’s expected that China will double the number of nuclear warheads it possesses, while embarking on an effort to expand the ways it can deploy its nuclear capability, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Chad L. Sbragia said at a recent American Enterprise Institute summit.

He discussed findings of a just-released Defense Department report, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China — 2020.”

“The report does contend that there are currently an estimated low-200s in terms of warhead stockpiles, and it’s projected to at least double in size over the next decade as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces,” Sbragia said.

But equally as important is how China would be able to deliver those warheads. It intends to develop a “nuclear triad” similar to the one the U.S. has and is currently working to modernize.

China is expanding, modernizing and diversifying its nuclear forces across the board. “Just looking at the number of warheads by itself is not the entire picture, or doesn’t paint a holistic understanding of where the Chinese are or where they want to go” notes the Assistant Secretary.

A nuclear triad, as it exists in the U.S., allows for land-based missile delivery, sea-based delivery from submarines and air-based delivery with bombers.

Within the next decade, according to Sbragia, China plans to expand its ballistic submarine fleet and field more capable, longer-range, sea-launched  ballistic missiles. It also plans to complete the development of its nuclear-capable, air-launched ballistic missiles along with bombers to deliver them. On the ground, he said, China plans to field additional mobile ICBMs and also possibly expand its silo-based ICBM capability.

“As has been noted by others, and then as the report contends … they’re obviously in pursuit of the full suite of capacities … to include the building out of infrastructure for a more modernized, capable and larger capacity in this area,” the Assistant Secretary emphasized.

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The report also concludes that, besides its investments in nuclear capability, China aims to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a “world-class military” by around 2050.

“While China has not defined exactly what ‘world-class military’ means, it is likely that China will seek to build a military that is equal to or in some cases superior to the U.S. military or the military of any other great power that China perceives as a potential threat,” Sbargia said.

One aspect of that advancement towards a world-class military, he said, is power projection. The Chinese want their military to be able to operate anywhere on the globe. One step towards that is the establishment of a more robust overseas logistics network.

According to the report, China is “very likely already considering and planning for” the establishment of military logistics facilities outside China that can support naval, air and ground forces.

Some locations that they may now be considering include Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, the Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola and

Tajikistan. China already has a military installation in Djibouti.

“The Chinese do have … an aspiration for great power status by virtually every measure of comprehensive or composite national power that you can measure,” Sbragia said. “To achieve that, it means that they have to have … global convergence at the broadest scale possible. For the PLA, that means that they do have the intent to go out. I think that’s certainly one of the aspects of what ‘world-class military’ means … the capacity to have influence at distance, at a time and place of their choosing. They certainly aspire to do that.

The Report continues tomorrow.

Photo: Chinese naval vessel. (DoD)

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Foreign Policy Update

CROATIA

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with Croatian Prime Minister Plenkovic during his recent trip to Croatia. He announced the United States will remain engaged in the region to ensure a good outcome for Europe. Pompeo said he hopes Croatia decides to go with the F-16 planes and that it is a sovereign decision which will deliver value to the Croatian people. He added it is “part of a larger context of the relationship between the United States and Europe where we will show up aiming to make sure that we deliver good security outcomes…” Pompeo assured the Prime Minister that the United States will “use its economic and diplomatic tools to try and drive these processes forward in a way that is serious and thoughtful and engages not only the capacities that the EU and NATO bring, but also those that the United States can uniquely bring to these conversations.” 

TURKEY

Syrian fighters in Libya have been moved through southern Turkey into Azerbaijan, according to reports seen by Secretary Pompeo. He believes Azerbaijan instigated this conflict and questions why Turkish President Erdogan would allow that to happen at this time when tensions were easing in the Eastern Mediterranean. Pompeo added that he hopes “it’s not the case… [It] created more instability, more turbulence, more conflict, more fighting, less peace.” Pompeo urged all nations to “just stay out” of the fighting other than to urge a ceasefire. 

IRAN

President Trump is continuing the maximum pressure campaign against Iran as part of his broader efforts in the Middle East to create Middle Eastern stability. In a Thursday interview, Secretary Pompeo said that the wrong way to approach Iran was “to appease, to give them money, to give them wealth, to create opportunities for them to continue to build out their terror campaign around the world, so we’ve stopped that.”

President Rouhani, according to Pompeo, said that they have lost $150 billion as a result of the American efforts. Pompeo added that the $150 billion “would have cost people all around the world their lives” and that the US has been successful in this effort.

VATICAN

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A senior State Department official, while in Rome for meetings with the Vatican, said that they US was having “very productive engagement… and a very respectful exchange…” concerning more than a million Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and Kyrgyz locked up in internment camps. The official told Vatican officials that Protestant house churches are being burned down, Catholic sermons are being monitored and Catholic priests and laypeople are being abused in China. The official added that Tibetans who are undergoing a new wave of oppression along with Falun Gong adherents are suffering enormously under the Chinese communist regime.

PACIFIC ISLANDS

The United States reaffirmed its pledge to a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The State Department is doubling from $100 million last year to $200 million in 2020, the amount of new funding as part of the Pacific Pledge. This figure includes more than $78 million in new programming across the Indo-Pacific Pillars and $130 million in support for the region’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Office of the State Department Spokesperson, this assistance is in addition to the approximately $350 million that US agencies invest annually in projects, assistance, and operations to build a more prosperous future for people in the Pacific Island region. 

CHINA

The tide has turned against China, according to Secretary Pompeo, as “The Chinese Government unleashed a virus on the world…. They deceived the world and they covered up.” While traveling in Europe Pompeo addressed press questions about China’s 5G network: “I’m confident that many more European countries now, frankly because of just sharing information with them, they’re going to make their own sovereign decision that says no, we don’t want our citizens’ data in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.  I think every European country now understands this, is increasingly aware of it.” Washington has reached out to Europe to provide data concerning the Chinese security threat in recent months. It appears countries are now holding off on implementing the Chinese version of 5G on the continent.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Is it the “Middle Kingdom” Once Again?

China received what the CCP leadership will deem as some “very good news” this week from Capitol Hill. Adam Schiff, Chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, reported that the US intelligence apparatus is not prepared to deal with the threat from China. After two years of examination by his Committee, he wrote in a September 30, 2020, Foreign Affairs article that “What we found was unsettling. Our nation’s intelligence agencies are not ready – not by a long shot.” According to Schiff, the US needs a fundamental realignment of the intelligence community to counter Beijing or it will be unable to compete with China on the global stage for decades. President Xi Jinping must be happy to hear this news on the eve of the country’s October 1 National Day celebrations.

The Chinese CCP, under the leadership of Xi, is running highly-successful influence operations in many nations around the globe. It acts as if it is competing in a zero-sum game in which technology-driven totalitarianism is just one of its exports. From domestic human rights abuses at home to election interference overseas, China is revealing how it conducts 21st century warfare against those who fail to accept China as the predominant world power. 

Schiff reports the good news for the intelligence community (IC) in Washington is that there is time left for the US to “significantly realign resources and personnel” to address the Chinese threat. He says there must be an improvement in the analysis of Chinese “soft” threats, including pandemics, climate change, and economic trends which can impact national security. Another specific challenge for the IC is improving its ability to manage large amounts of open source information and get it to policy makers. He also calls for improvements in the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to speed decisions. This is an area where China has excelled in recent years, in some cases outpacing US technological advances. It is a far distance from thirty-five years ago when China was a grain-importing nation that could not feed, educate, or care for its own population. 

Beijing’s well-funded influence operations are another little understood threat to the United States. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based think tank, says that before Facebook and Twitter became pervasive social media tools Beijing used cyber actors to create a “multi-pronged campaign to positively influence public opinion about China worldwide and neutralize potential threats to the regime’s carefully crafted international image. Such efforts began with relatively benign person-to-person exchanges and the cultivation of discreet relationships with influential U.S. business executives and decision makers.” Today, China’s arsenal of offensive weapons against the West includes sophisticated disinformation campaigns, coercion, threats of retaliation, and clandestine operations.

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Reading the revisionist information coming out of China today one might come to the conclusion that there were no atrocities in Tiananmen Square in June 1989, the Uighur minority population has not suffered any abuses, and that Tibet always belonged to China. The world has underestimated the CCP’s aggressive agenda. Xi and the CCP aim to place China at the forefront of 21st century powers and to remake the US and the western world in its image by “undermining Americans’ trust in our public institutions and form of governance,” according the FDD. It reports that Democratic politicians in Washington further assist China in achieving its goals by downplaying Beijing’s election interference. An emboldened CCP is likely to interpret this as a green light to push even harder. What is worse it that the US has limited knowledge of the details of Chinese operations, a small number of China analysts in the IC dedicated to addressing this threat, and a voting public that views Russia as the predominant election threat.

The FDD concludes in a recent report that “In the absence of a more unified approach to China’s U.S. election meddling, as well as a concerted effort by both political parties to educate the general public about the scope of the threat, it appears all but certain that the United States will find itself facing a similar situation in 2022 and 2024, if not beyond.” There is time for liberal democracies to adjust their approach to China’s influence operations and devise appropriate, apolitical countermeasures. How much is the question. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Picture: Pixabay

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Fighting Back Against Antifa

The depredations of Antifa, a group that closely resembles, and indeed may be, a terrorist organization are coming under ever closer scrutiny. The militant group has ravaged American cities, as well as killing and assaulting innocents. As the 2020 election period has moved into high gear, the danger is escalating.

However, the mainstream media has obscured the neo-Nazi tactics of the organization. The group’s tactics and totalitarian/leftist outlook is the closest America currently has to a true Fascist movement.  It’s loosely organized collective of left-wing and anarchists organizations have virtually renounced respect for contrary opinion and the results of free elections. CNN notes that “Antifa is impossible to track. It isn’t united through a national organization, and it cloaks itself in anonymity. In speaking to Antifa leaders across the country, CNN found very few who would take off their masks.”

It’s tactics deeply resemble those of Germany’s 1930’s Nazi era, and its violent response to those with different philosophies renders the group a disturbing combination of the 20th Century’s two most murderous movements, those best represented by Stalin’s Soviet Union and Hitler’s Third Reich.

Examples of its extremist beliefs are extensive, and the failure of U.S. institutions to condemn those actions is deeply troubling.

Edmund Kozak, writing in Lifezette provides this description from independent journalist Lauren Southern, who was present at one of the pro-Trump Berkeley rallies:

“Anyone who tries to hold any sort of right-wing event literally gets beat up by militant communists in the street,’ she reports. a video taken immediately following the violence…Harrowing video footage taken by Southern’s crew showed Antifa street fighters throwing bricks and M-80 explosives into the crowd, as well as assaulting Trump supporters. Other footage released by someone present at the event showed one Antifa thug hit a Trump supporter over the head with a bicycle chain and lock.”

In a recent release, the U.S. Department of Justice “With the rioting that is occurring in many of our cities around the country, the voices of peaceful and legitimate protests have been hijacked by violent radical elements.  Groups of outside radicals and agitators are exploiting the situation to pursue their own separate, violent, and extremist agenda.

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It is time to stop watching the violence and to confront and stop it.  The continued violence and destruction of property endangers the lives and livelihoods of others, and interferes with the rights of peaceful protestors, as well as all other citizens. 

It also undercuts the urgent work that needs to be done – through constructive engagement between affected communities and law enforcement leaders – to address legitimate grievances.  Preventing reconciliation and driving us apart is the goal of these radical groups, and we cannot let them succeed. 

It is the responsibility of state and local leaders to ensure that adequate law enforcement resources, including the National Guard where necessary, are deployed on the streets to reestablish law and order….

The violence instigated and carried out by Antifa and other similar groups in connection with the rioting is domestic terrorism and will be treated accordingly.”

In response, Rep. Jim Banks has introduced the “Support Peaceful Protest Act”  that would require arrested rioters who were caught committing crimes like acts of violence, looting or vandalism to pay for the cost of federal policing of the riot and be ineligible for federal unemployment assistance.

Banks states that “Antifa thugs are descending on suffering communities, disrupting peaceful protests and leaving violence, looting and vandalism in their wake. They turned Milwaukee, Seattle and Portland into warzones, and now they’re moving the chaos to Kenosha, Wisconsin. Who knows which community is next?” said Rep. Banks. “Due to enhanced federal benefits, taxpayers are giving wages to jobless rioters that are destroying our communities. We need to cut them off from their funding and make them feel the full financial consequences of their actions.”

Illustration: Pixabay