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Quick Analysis

Dueling Conferences on Terrorism

Following President Obama’s startling State of the Union comment that the “shadow of the crisis of terrorism has passed,” followed weeks later by his equally odd comments comparing medieval crusades with modern day Islamic extremism, it has become clear that there is growing concern over the Administration’s competence and vision concerning keeping the nation safe.

It is not surprising, then, that the announcement of a White House summit on countering violent extremism would be met with considerable skepticism. The Center for Security Policy (CSP) has called the planned event “…an exercise in disinformation, deflection and deceit, both about the reality of Islamic supremacism and the effectiveness of the steps the United States and its allies are taking to contend with it.”

 

On the same day that the White House will hold its session, CSP will conduct its own event  hosting “leaders and other influential figures from around the world will come together to address in a realistic way the emerging – and potentially existential – threat facing our nation and its friends overseas, and to resolve how best to counter it… Unlike the closed-door official function, however, ours will be live-streamed.”
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According to CSP, The alternative summit’s roundtable will focus on three topics:

  1. “The nature of the enemy we face – the Global Jihad Movement and its animating ideology of shariah, i.e., notsomething euphemistically and misleadingly called “violent extremism”;
  2. the actual degree to which the present policy for addressing this threat has been successful or a failure – a realistic appraisal devoid of the cheerleading, wishful thinking, misdirection and worse that colors Ms. Rice’s every utterance (predictably, to include those served up at Brookings tomorrow) and that will be the leitmotif of the CVE Summit, with its official/Muslim Brotherhood and fellow-traveling participants;
  3. An alternative approach that is fact-based, non-submissive to jihadist threats and influence operations and, ideally based on a strategy proven to be successful in countering totalitarian ideologies bent on our destruction – i.e., the Secure Freedom Strategy modeled on the one President Reagan launched 32 years ago last month that sought, and achieved, the liquidation of Soviet communism and its ‘Evil Empire.”

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Quick Analysis

Obama’s unjustified optimism

A realistic assessment of international dangers facing the United States and its allies was completely missing from the President’s State of the Union Address.

Unfortunately for Mr. Obama, a number of serious incidents this week splashed icy cold water on his assessment that the world had turned a corner on issues such as terrorism and global relations.  Consider just a few specific items that apparently the Commander-in-Chief wasn’t briefed on or didn’t care to discuss:

  • As talks with Cuba prepared to commence, a Russian spy ship docked in that island nation, another entry into the growing Russian, Chinese, and Iranian military presence in Latin America.
  • In Argentina, a prosecutor who is reviewing Iranian involvement in a past terrorist attack was found dead just before he could testify.
  • In the African nation of Namibia, discussions are underway to develop a Chinese naval base in the Walvis Bay area.
  • In Yemen, often cited by the White House as a Middle Eastern success story, militant Shiites invaded the Presidential palace.
  • The Russians have developed new and more potent missiles, part of a massive military buildup that in some areas violates past arms accords.
  • China continues its own extraordinary military buildup, continuing at a pace faster than either the U.S. or the U.S.S.R. did at the height of the Cold War.
  • Terrorists control more geography than ever in the Middle East, and are poised to make gains in Afghanistan as well.
  • North Korea and Iran continue on with their nuclear and missile development programs as well.
  • All of this occurs as the United States and its allies continue to underfund their own militaries. With clearly no threat from the west, what justification can Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea provide for their vast weapons programs and aggressive tactics?

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It is increasingly difficult to understand Mr. Obama’s foreign policy views.

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Quick Analysis

Dangers from the failed state of Mexico

When Americans think of Mexico, it is generally in the context of vast numbers of unlawful immigrants, or of a place for vacations on sandy beaches.

It is time to start thinking of that nation in a different and frightening context: that of a dangerously failed state on our border, a vacuum of power that is attracting America’s enemies. The murder several months ago of 43 teachers-in-training by drug cartels highlights the depths to which Mexico has fallen. Despite the viciousness of this atrocity, Washington has been comparatively silent, even though in parts of the Texas border area, the kidnapping, murder, and harassment of landowners within the U.S. by these cartels are already occurring.

According to the National Interest, “Since 2008, the seven main drug cartels have emerged as an existential threat to Mexico’s future. Cartels like Los Zetas, which recruit members from Mexico’s Special Forces and federal police, behave like organized paramilitaries, not ordinary criminals. They generate perhaps $30 to $40 billion a year in illicit profits. And the price has been horrendous. Between 2007 and 2012, around 47,000 Mexicans were killed in the drug war. Some estimate that the true toll is over 60,000.”

Violent crime may be the least of the threats.

The illegal drug trade provides an opening for the infiltration of the U.S.’s southern neighbor by antagonist nations across the globe. According to theJamestown Foundation, “In April 2012, authorities in the prosperous and generally peaceful Caribbean nation of Belize intercepted a shipment of precursor chemicals sent from China and apparently bound for representatives of the Mexican cartel “Los Zetas.” The shipment—sufficient to produce an estimated $10 billion in methamphetamines—highlights growing criminal ties between China and Latin America that have accompanied, but, to date, have lagged behind the exponential growth of trade and investment between the two regions.”
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The national security implications for the United States are staggering, and some are already occurring. With Russia, China and Iran’s Hezbollah aggressively seeking increased footholds in the Western Hemisphere, a failed state—especially one right on the U.S. border—represents a great prize. It is attractive as well to Al Qaeda and ISIS as a launching pad for terror attacks on American soil.

Robert Kaplan, author of a notable study on the impact of geography on world events notes, “While we have spent billions of dollars to affect historical outcomes in Eurasia, we are curiously passive about what is happening to a country with which we have to share a long land border, and whose population is close to double that of Iraq and Afghanistan combined.”

Recently, the Judicial Watch organization reported that “Islamic terrorist groups are operating in the Mexican border city of Ciudad Juarez and planning to attack the United States with car bombs or other vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED). High-level federal law enforcement, intelligence and other sources have confirmed to Judicial Watch that a warning bulletin for an imminent terrorist attack on the border has been issued… Specifically, the government sources reveal that the militant group Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) is confirmed to now be operating in Juarez, a famously crime-infested narcotics hotbed situated across from El Paso, Texas.”

The Washington Times notes that Mexico, along with Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia recently purchased Chinese arms. “A joint Mexico-China statement said Mexico pledged not to interfere in China’s affairs on Taiwan and Tibet.” The move is part of increased closeness between Mexico and China. The Wall Street Journal recently noted that China has become the largest financier for Venezuela, a nation whose government is rabidly anti-American.

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Quick Analysis

Will American voters act to reject foreign policy failures?

Americans go to the polls tomorrow in the midst of a more urgent period of crisis than any since the start of the Second World War, and perhaps surpassing even that momentous epoch.

Extraordinary challenges facing our national security will be decided.

The evidence of both the depth of the threats facing the nation is abundant, as is the reality that the dogmas of the past several years have failed to provide any remedies. An objective, clear-eyed view reveals a devastating picture of an America that has seen its fortunes decline precipitously, in large part due to tragically faulty strategies.

At no time since the attack on Pearl Harbor has the United States been in such a weakened position militarily. This time, however, our vulnerability is not due to a sneak attack; it is the result of policies that were never based on any realistic assessments. The Obama-Clinton “reset” with Russia, highlighted by an extraordinary reduction in American arms at the same time that Moscow dramatically upgraded its conventional and nuclear forces, was clearly doomed to fail. But the White House and its supporters were so eager to redistribute military funding to social welfare programs, including an unprecedented leap in food stamps, that they ignored—and continue to ignore– this imminent threat. The same willful blindness applies to our stance towards China’s massive armed forces buildup and to the increasing threat of Islamic terrorism, a threat Mr. Obama and his allies seem reluctant to even call by its proper name.

Since 2009, the United States has endangered staunch friends such as the United Kingdom, Poland, the Philippines, and especially Israel through an inexplicable attitude from the White House that sought to please our opponents more than America’s own interests and that of its allies. Today, a powerful and increasingly dangerous axis with a vast and contiguous portion of the Earth’s geography and population, including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea threatens planetary peace to an unacceptable degree.
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The American electorate tomorrow must make a decision similar to that of the United Kingdom’s in 1940, when Neville Chamberlain, who sought to appease Nazi Germany, was replaced by the clear-eyed Winston Churchill.

But foreign-born threats are not all from enemy weapons. The aimlessness and secretiveness with which the looming threat of Ebola has been met by the White House matches its disarray in other national security concerns.

Similarly, the refusal to not only appropriately secure America’s southern border, but to engage in statements which actually encourage illegal entry provides an effective vector for the introduction of contagious diseases and Islamic terrorists, masquerading as economic immigrants, to the U.S.

Tomorrow, Americans have a choice.  Their decision may determine whether they also have a secure future.

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Quick Analysis

Obama’s Strange War

The day after the President Obama announced enhanced airstrikes against ISIS, 13 years into America’s long march against Islamic extremism, Secretary of State John Kerry declared we were not at war with ISIS but “What we are doing is engaging in a very significant counter-terrorism operation, and it’s going to go on for some period of time.”

This was followed by the British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond telling reporters at a news conference in Berlin: Let me be clear; Britain will not be taking part in any air strikes in Syria.”  He said London won’t be “revisiting” the issue after Parliament decided last year against participating in air strikes.  Number 10 Downing Street then had to walk that back by saying that P.M. David Cameron had not yet decided on air strikes.

Further complications occurred after that with Germany stating that they were not yet in the coalition, followed by Turkey and then Saudi Arabia announcing that their contribution would be restricted to the training of the Syrian Free Army on Saudi territory.

Friday it got worse with the CIA in a surprise release stating that ISIS had grown by as much as 300% since June and now numbered between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters in the terror army.  This would make ISIS the 76th largest army out of 106 forces in the world.  It should be remembered that when they took Fallujah in the beginning of 2014 they were estimated to be around 4000 strong.

In matters both foreign and domestic, Obama’s presidency has been one of unnecessarily diminished expectations.  Thus when he gives us a little, many tend to bequeath it a potency that is not there.  He began his fifteen minutes into war making with a pronouncement that ISIL or ISIS is not Islamic nor is it a state.  Who then are the volunteers who have swelled its ranks at 500 a week…Presbyterians?  The insistence of Obama to protect anything and everything Islamic is the source of this obsession.  The reflexive impulse to see Islam in western terms is the source of those non Muslims who always want to begin the conversation with the assertion that “Islam is a religion of Peace”.  They are the 21st century avatars of those with a “little knowledge” and thus are as dangerous as ISIS.

Then came his predictable pledge of no ground troops from the US, causing Speaker Boehner to decry “An F-16 is not a strategy” and that an air war alone will not get the job done.  There is no need for foreign spies in the U.S. when the President gives away military strategy in televised national speeches.

Obama’s claim that ISIS or the Islamic State is highly questionable.  ISIS now occupies 18 cities in Iraq and 22 cities in Syria.  31 of that total are under their full control.  The opposition to ISIS, which includes both the disparate elements of the Syrian Free Army and the Syrian Army of Bashir al-assad  is all in the eastern corridor.  Part of the east, the north central and the west are basically controlled by ISIS.
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In Iraq, Anbar and parts of Diyala, Salahuddin and Nineveh Provinces extending south to Bagdad and west to Kurdistan are controlled by ISIS.  This territory is roughly the size of Belgium or Jordan and estimated by some to be as large as 35,000 square miles.  The 8 Sunni “militias’ in the Sunni triangle at the present time are all either supporting ISIS or in a truce with them although there have been incidents of fighting between ISIS and the Jaysh Rijal al- Tariqa al- Naqshbandia (JRTN) the largest Sunni nationalist groups that also has Caliphate  type dreams.  ISIS also controls one border crossing in Syria and perhaps as many as three in Iraq.

Over two million people in both Syria and Iraq have been displaced and are living in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey or Iraqi Kurdistan.

Obama has now based the foreign policy portion of what remains of his Presidency on a proposal that seems both unstable and unserious.  It is beginning to feel in its infancy like more spin than substance and some openly wonder if this is serious or just more political necessity.

He has tried to convince us that he waited for a new regime in Bagdad and now that he has it no one can really say if it is the real deal or not.  In Iraq, it is a new Sunni Awakening that is needed along with an Iraqi army that can and will fight. In Syria it is a collection of insurgents, some with al-Qaeda ties, who Mr. Obama just weeks ago demeaned as “Doctors, Farmers and Pharmacists” whom he would be stupid to arm.  Then his core principle was “don’t do stupid stuff””.  Now it is “no safe haven” for those who try to kill us.  The truth is that nobody knows what this is or where this is going and that in the long run is the biggest danger of it all.

No American should be sent into harms way if the ultimate objective is not complete and total victory.  Anything less is immoral and illogical.  A three year campaign with the finale left to a new President is yet another example of his propensity to fit square pegs into round holes.  It is a graduate studies exercise devoid of the essence of or the unpredictability of the reality of war.  Why three years?  Three years will allow this cancer to metastasize and grow until ISIS is not just part of Islam but is Islam itself.

Article researched and written by Larry Allison

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Quick Analysis

Obama’s Jurisdictional Confusion

The Obama Administration is displaying a deeply disturbing, fundamental lack of comprehension concerning the role of the federal government, and the dominion of its various agencies. The problem is reflected in issues both foreign and domestic, and is profoundly changing the relationship between Washington, the states, and individual American citizens.

The White House response to the recent beheading of an American journalist, as well as the 9/11/12 attack on the U.S. facility in Benghazi is illustrative of this deep confusion.  Each of these actions were military in nature, the former performed under the aegis of an adversarial armed force, the latter by organized terrorists using the weapons and tactics of war.

Rather than allow the appropriate organization, The Department of Defense, to timely respond, the Justice Department was absurdly given jurisdiction.  This is an irrational move for two key reasons. First, enemy military organizations are not vulnerable to nor concerned with American jurisprudence. Second, DOJ simply doesn’t have the capability to bring a foreign military to heel. Indeed, as has been amply demonstrated, even the heroic arrest or elimination by Special Forces of individual culpable leaders, Osama bin Laden being a prime example, does nothing substantive to reduce the threat.  Bin Laden is dead, but Islamic extremism is stronger than ever. Removing major figures has only strengthened the resolve of the movement, which now controls more territory than ever, a direct consequence of the Obama Administration’s decision to prematurely remove U.S. forces from Iraq and its announcement of a departure date from Afghanistan.

Domestically, the Department of Justice has failed to prosecute the tidal wave of illegal aliens flooding through America’s southern border, but has not hesitated to move against state and local officials seeking to do this vital task that the White House has abandoned.

It’s bewilderment over what it is supposed to do—and what it has no jurisdiction over– can also be seen in the events that occurred in Ferguson, Missouri. The proper course of action in the wake of the shooting of a black robbery suspect by a white police officer was to have the Missouri state legal system investigate and take appropriate action. No evidence of a civil rights violation was established before Attorney General Eric Holder became involved, sending numerous FBI agents to the area and travelling there himself. Since a civil rights violation had not been established, DOJ lacked jurisdiction and its presence was inappropriate.

In contrast, The Department of Justice has repeatedly refrained from investigating fairly obvious actions which affected Americans’ fundamental rights, including acts of voter intimidation, the harassment of journalists, and the abuse of the Internal Revenue Service involving partisan political attacks. It has also consistently interfered with states seeking to insure that their voter registration rolls are accurate.

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Washington’s overreach has created a regulatory climate that is Kafkaesque.

In his 2013 testimony before the Congressional Committee on over-criminalization, John G. Malcolm of the Heritage Foundation Stated: “… buried within the 51 titles of the United States Code and the far more voluminous Code of Federal Regulations, there are approximately 4,500 statutes and another 300,000 (or more) implementing regulations with potential criminal penalties for violations.  There are so many criminal laws and regulations, in fact, that nobody really knows how many there are, with scores more being created every year.  And that’s just federal offenses.”

It is clear that the Constitution never envisioned this vast and direct role for the federal government. The Bill of Rights’ Tenth Amendment clearly states: “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

This combination of confused jurisdiction between individual federal agencies, combined with Washington’s constitutionally inappropriate overreach into the jurisdiction of the states, reflects a government badly at odds with both common sense and its own founding principles.

 

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Quick Analysis

America’s eerie era of silence

An eerie era of silence has descended on the United States. In so many areas of its national life, institutions and political parties appear averse to talking about the true nature of the many challenges facing the nation. Central questions about the economy, national security, the federal budget, the quality of our educational system, and more remain unaddressed as crisis after crisis mandates that we urgently have the discussions that have been avoided for far too long.

In great universities, media outlets, and the halls of government, frank talk has been replaced with taboos about bringing up the rapid descent that has encompassed almost every facet of national endeavors in the past half-decade.

America has faced budget deficits in the past.  But never this serious, absent the Second World War, and never did it grow as quickly as it has without achieving or building anything.  Franklin Roosevelt bent rules and spent enormously on programs aimed at ending the Great Depression in the 1930’s.  Praise it, criticize it, or bring up the fact that those efforts didn’t actually end the Depression, but at the very least, the evidence of what federal dollars were spent on can still be seen in numerous great projects and buildings across the U.S.  Where did the nearly one trillion dollars spent on the stimulus go? Nothing was achieved. No problems were solved. Nothing of any significance was built. Why is this not a major topic of discussion?

Across the face of the planet, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and Islamic extremists have developed or acquired and are rapidly expanding extraordinary military capabilities that are directly aimed at America and American interests. In addition, funds and expertise are being directly funneled to nations within our own hemisphere, such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela by Moscow, Beijing and Tehran for the specific purpose of threatening the United States. Other than in a few specialty journals, when was the last time there was a significant, widely reported national debate on this topic?

At the same time that America’s proven, attainable domestic energy resources are greater than ever, U.S. consumers are paying outrageously high prices to fill their gas tanks and power their homes.  How is that justified?  Why does the federal government continue to refuse to allow the exploitation of energy resources within its vast land holdings? This issue is particularly salient when hostile nations such as Russia, Venezuela and those in the Middle East use their energy resources as a political weapon to achieve goals harmful to the interests of America and its allies.  Why have so few media outlets concentrated on this?

Despite greater sums than ever being spent on education, disappointing results are the norm. Why are American students, despite all those dollars, faring poorly in basic subjects?  Why do so many relevant textbooks neglect to inculcate students into the proud achievements of a nation that has led humankind in expanding freedom and prosperity, and instead frequently read like anti-U.S. propaganda tracts from enemy nations? Why does the press continue to soft-pedal this?

Ever greater sums of federal dollars are being committed to social welfare programs providing funding to young, healthy, individuals. The poverty rate remains unimproved, and the job participation rate continues to decline.  Since giveaway schemes haven’t worked, shouldn’t an effort be made to instead change course and engage in efforts that increase employment opportunities instead?

Several of our once-great inner cities have descended into bankruptcy and orgies of crime.  Some, like Chicago, have murder rates that would be unacceptable in warzones patrolled by American troops. Why have the pundits and broadcast barons not investigated the corrupt politics and overtly foolish ideological philosophies that have been the hallmark of these failed municipalities?
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There are, of course, many other challenges that could be mentioned. But the common denominator in all of these areas is the relatively light media coverage, biased academic discourse, and inadequate political debate that has taken place relating to them.

Absent that desperately needed discourse, these dramatic problems have already caused massive damage, and threaten to rapidly and irreversibly harm the United States to a degree from which it may not be able to recover.

 

 

 

 

 

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Obama’s Failed Terrorism Policies

The catastrophic failure of the Obama Administration’s policies towards towards the Islamic world in general and radical Islam in particular is becoming increasingly evident.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the fate of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq, a purely terrorist entity which now controls an area the size of Massachusetts and is, according to the Arab news source al-Arabiya reportedly even issuing its own passports.

Al-Baghdadi, the new Osama Bin Laden, was actually in American custody until he was released by Mr. Obama in 2009.  Despite his rise to prominence following his release, the identical mistake has been made again in the release of the Taliban 5, prominent terrorist figures freed by the White House this year.
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Elsewhere, we have seen the Administration’s inexplicable assault on Libya’s Muammar al-Gaddafi, who no longer threatened threatened the west, a move which gave rise to new opportunities for al-Qaeda in that nation; the White House’s vigorous endorsement for the overthrow of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, a flawed  but pro-peace, pro-American leader which led to the rise of the terrorist Moslem Brotherhood in that nation; the announcement of the withdrawal date of U.S. troops from Afghanistan as the White House negotiates with the Taliban, the same entity that attacked the World Trade Center and the Pentagon; the refusal to even voice any support for the Green Revolution in Iran, which sought to replace that nation’s vehemently anti-American regime; and the continual decline of U.S. relations with Israel, the only true friend the U.S. has in the middle east.

The White House continues to fail to provide any rational explanation of its bizarre actions and policies, which have clearly been to the detriment of the American people.

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The diminished state of the United States Navy is correctly seen as a dire national security threat.  But it also has ramifications in other areas, as well.

Seth Cropsey, who has studied the plight of the U.S. Navy, writes in his book “Mayday, the decline of American naval supremacy” that countering the drug trade will be far more difficult due to the neglect of U.S. maritime power. “U.S. seapower in the form of both naval and Coast Guard ships search the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and eastern Pacific for drug runners…Illegal drugs that enter the United States divert money from the economy, encourage corruption among law-enforcement authorities, generate crime from the source of origin to their end use in the United States…and are a bountiful source of revenue for foreign criminal groups that conduct the trade. According to U.S. government officials, the money from this illicit harvest is now becoming a source of revenue for criminal groups that may sympathize with al Qaeda. Military commanders…are more blunt.  They see an increasing presence in the region of Islamic extremists with illegal drugs to sell and a nurturing of ties between jihadists and often less ideological but equally profit-minded drug cartels of Latin and Central America.”
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Combined with the Obama Administration’s extremely lax enforcement of America’s southern border, the vanishing presence of the U.S. Navy renders America virtually unprotected from the rabid collection of criminals, terrorists and others who intend to commit harm to the citizenry.

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THE GROWING EMP THREAT

Congress is beginning to pay significant attention to the potential–some would say likely–threat of an electromagnetic pulse devastating the economy, health, and safety of the United States.

 WHAT IS EMP?

 The Congressional Research Service describes Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) as “an instantaneous, intense energy field that can overload or disrupt at a distance numerous electrical systems and high technology microcircuits, which are especially sensitive to power surges. A large scale EMP effect can be produced by a single nuclear explosion detonated high in the atmosphere. This method is referred to as High-Altitude EMP (HEMP). A similar, smaller-scale EMP effect can be created using non-nuclear devices with powerful batteries or reactive chemicals. This method is called High Power Microwave (HPM). Several nations, including reported sponsors of terrorism, may currently have a capability to use EMP as a weapon for cyber warfare or cyber terrorism to disrupt communications and other parts of the U.S. critical infrastructure. Also, some equipment and weapons used by the U.S. military may be vulnerable to the effects of EMP. The threat of an EMP attack against the United States is hard to assess, but some observers indicate that it is growing along with worldwide access to newer technologies and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.”

 The impact of EMPs was noticed during the 1960’s, when both the Soviet Union and the United States conducted above ground nuclear tests.

  An EMP can also come from unusual solar activity, as recently reported in aNational Geographic report. A very modest version of EMP-type issues occurred last February, when a solar flare interfered with GPS signals and radio communications.

  In the past, however, more significant solar activity has occurred which would, if it happened today, significantly damage or destroy much of our modern infrastructure. According to the National Geographic Report,

  “The biggest solar storm on record happened in 1859. That storm has been dubbed the Carrington Event, after British astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the megaflare and was the first to realize the link between activity on the sun and geomagnetic disturbances on Earth… the geomagnetic disturbances were strong enough that U.S. telegraph operators reported sparks leaping from their equipment.

 “In 1859, such reports were mostly curiosities. But if something similar happened today, the world’s high-tech infrastructure could grind to a halt…What’s at stake are the advanced technologies that underlie virtually every aspect of our lives.”

 WND analysis provides a further example: “Even as far back as 1921, solar flares interfered with man’s technology.At 7:04 a.m. on May 15, 1921, the entire signal and switching system of the New York Central Railroad below 125th Street shut down due to a ‘solar event.’ At the same time in Sweden, a telephone station was ‘burned out,’ and the solar storm interfered with telephone, telegraph and cable traffic over most of Europe.”

  The nuclear weapon scenario is becoming increasingly likely, particularly since the cuts to the anti-ballistic missile program instituted by the Obama Administration. The devastation doesn’t have to come from a full-scale nuclear attack.  A single well placed weapon, delivered by a smaller national source such as Iran or North Korea, or even a terrorist organization such as al Qaeda, could produce a devastating result.

 THE EFFECTS OF EMP

 Consider the effects of both the electrical grid and portable electronics being shattered until wholly new equipment could be manufactured and emplaced:

  •   Reservoirs would be incapable of pumping water.
  • Planes, trains, trucks and autos, all of which now depend upon electronics, would be incapable moving.
  • Deliveries of food and medicine would cease.
  • Emergency vehicles, police cars, and even military equipment would be rendered harmless.
  • Hospitals would be incapable of servicing patients beyond a few primitive functions.
  • Heating and cooling systems would be inoperable.
  • Communications by radio, television, and telephone would be eliminated.

According to a Washington Free Beacon study quoting Dr. Peter Pry of the Congressional EMP Commission and Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, “an EMP event could wipe out 90 percent of America’s population.”

 In response to the threat, Rep. Trent Franks,(R-AZ), who has introduced H.R. 3410, the Critical Infrastructure Protection Act:

  “The threat of an electromagnetic pulse weapon represents the single greatest asymmetric capability that could fall into the hands of America’s enemies. Should a nuclear weapon from a rogue state such as Iran be detonated in Earth’s atmosphere at a sufficient height above the continental United States, the blast of electromagnetic energy could immediately cripple America’s electric power grid. Currently, the vast majority of the United States’ infrastructure is unsecured and exposed.

 “According to some experts, just one properly placed EMP blast could disable so large a swath of American technology that between 70-90% of the United States’ population could become unsustainable.

 “The danger posed by electromagnetic pulse weapons, as well as naturally occurring electromagnetic pulses, has received increased attention over recent years from organizations including NASA, the National Association of Scientists, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.”

 On May 8, The House Homeland Security Committee’s Subcommittee on Infrastructure Protection  held a hearing to discuss the potential crisis.  Rep. Franks testified that “catastrophic civilian casualties” could be caused by an EMP.

  At a NASA forum held in 2010, Dr. William Fortschen stressed that an “EMP event could result in a civilian casualty rate of upwards of 90% within year due to the breakdown of water, sanitation, medical and food distribution systems, along with the breakdown of social order, law enforcement, and command and control.”

 The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack notes:

 “Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the

United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication.

 “EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of

catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.

“The common element that can produce such an impact from EMP is primarily

electronics, so pervasive in all aspects of our society and military, coupled through critical infrastructures. Our vulnerability is increasing daily as our use of and dependence on electronics continues to grow. The impact of EMP is asymmetric in relation to potential protagonists who are not as dependent on modern electronics. The current vulnerability of our critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack if not corrected. Correction is feasible and well within the Nation’s means and resources to accomplish.”

 

 Following an EMP attack, water from reservoir’s could not be transported to population centers

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WHAT SHOULD BE DONE

 The Center for Security Policy has extensively reviewed numerous governmental studies discussing EMP.  In its recent publication entitled “Guilty knowledge: what the U.S. government knows about the vulnerability of the electrical grid, but refuses to fix” it quotes the Final Report of the Congressional Committee on the strategic posture of the United States:

 “The United States should take steps to reduce the vulnerability of the nation and its military to attacks with weapons designed to produce electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects…From a technical perspective, it is possible that such attacks could have catastrophic consequences…Prior commissions have investigated U.S. vulnerabilities and found little activity under way to address them.  Some limited defensive measures have been ordered by the Department of Defense to give some protection to important operational communications.  But EMP vulnerabilities have not yet been addressed effectively by the Department of Homeland Security.  Doing so could take several years.  The EMP Commission has recommended numerous measures that would mitigate the damage that might be wrought by an EMP attack.”

State governments could play a role in EMP hardening within their borders, but most have not.  According to a Heritage Foundation  report,

 “…state and local governments remain poorly prepared for an EMP attack. A 2007 survey of state adjutant generals, the officials responsible for overseeing National Guard units, found that few states were prepared for an EMP attack. The survey, conducted by the Institute of the North in conjunction with the Claremont Institute, found that although 96 percent of adjutant generals surveyed indicated that they were concerned with the threat posed by an EMP attack, few had analyzed the actual impact details of an EMP attack. Furthermore, few of the adjutant generals surveyed indicated that they had made preparations, such as training, EMP hardening of systems, and the creation of formal emergency response plans for an EMP attack. Overall, most states have not taken action to address vulnerabilities to EMP attacks.”

 The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack has made the following recommendations:

   “It will not be possible to reduce the incentives for an EMP attack to an acceptable level of risk through defensive protection measures alone.  It is possible to achieve an acceptable level of risk and reduced invitation to an EMP attack with a strategy of:

 Pursuing intelligence, interdiction, and deterrence to discourage EMP attack against the US and its interests;

 Protecting critical components of the infrastructure, with particular emphasis on those that, if damaged, would require long periods of time to repair or replace;

 Maintaining the capability to monitor and evaluate the condition of critical infrastructures;

 Recognizing an EMP attack and understanding how it effects differ from other forms of infrastructure disruption and damage;

 Planning and carrying out a systematic recovery of critical infrastructures training, evaluating ‘red teaming,’ and periodically reporting to Congress;

 Defining the federal governments responsibility and authority to act, and conducting research to better understand infrastructure system effects and developing cost-effective solutions to manage these effects.

 “The cost for such improved security … is modest by any standard-and extremely so in relation to both the war on terror and the value of the national infrastructures involved. Costs at later times may be adjusted to deal with the then-apparent threat and future levels of effort required.”

 CONCLUSION

 According to various estimates, the price tag cost to protect the nation’s entire electrical grid would be $1 billion to $2 billion; some estimates indicate that protecting  all of the nation’s essential resources could cost $100 billion.  When one considers that President Obama’s Stimulus package cost over $700 billion, that is an affordable figure to counter so vast a threat.