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Washington heading for fiscal chaos

A look at recent statistics from the U.S. Treasury Department  are truly worrisome.

The federal government ran a budget deficit of $195 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2015, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates—$12 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same span last year. Revenues and outlays were both 8 percent higher than they were at this time a year ago. If lawmakers enact no further legislation affecting spending or revenues, the federal government will end fiscal year 2015 with a deficit of $468 billion, or 2.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The deficit occurred even as receipts through January totaled $1,041 billion, CBO estimates—$79 billion more than the amount collected in the same period last year.  In January alone, the government had a deficit of approximately $17.5 billion, a dramatic increase from last year’s figure of $10.3 billion.

cheap sildenafil uk Any time a person cigarettes he let’s air pass large amounts of carbon monoxide. Texts of ayurveda mention various herbal preparations using different parts of mango tree. see for more buy cheap levitra When it comes to something like erectile buy cialis australia buying that dysfunction treatment, many patients have been taking the same medication for their symptoms. Naturally, home-based viagra prescription australia ways will not be generally reputable. The reality is that under current conditions, the federal government seems unwilling to balance its budget no matter how much revenue it takes in. But there’s even worse news.  Some essential functions of government, such as defense, have been enduring budget cuts even as nonessential areas, such as entitlements (other than social security) have spent more.

The difficult political fact that Washington seems incapable of facing is that the federal government is far too deeply involved in matters better left to the states.  Until it re-orients itself to those functions that are constitutionally envisioned for it, the federal government will continue to plunge faster and more unavoidably towards fiscal chaos.

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America’s eerie era of silence

An eerie era of silence has descended on the United States. In so many areas of its national life, institutions and political parties appear averse to talking about the true nature of the many challenges facing the nation. Central questions about the economy, national security, the federal budget, the quality of our educational system, and more remain unaddressed as crisis after crisis mandates that we urgently have the discussions that have been avoided for far too long.

In great universities, media outlets, and the halls of government, frank talk has been replaced with taboos about bringing up the rapid descent that has encompassed almost every facet of national endeavors in the past half-decade.

America has faced budget deficits in the past.  But never this serious, absent the Second World War, and never did it grow as quickly as it has without achieving or building anything.  Franklin Roosevelt bent rules and spent enormously on programs aimed at ending the Great Depression in the 1930’s.  Praise it, criticize it, or bring up the fact that those efforts didn’t actually end the Depression, but at the very least, the evidence of what federal dollars were spent on can still be seen in numerous great projects and buildings across the U.S.  Where did the nearly one trillion dollars spent on the stimulus go? Nothing was achieved. No problems were solved. Nothing of any significance was built. Why is this not a major topic of discussion?

Across the face of the planet, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and Islamic extremists have developed or acquired and are rapidly expanding extraordinary military capabilities that are directly aimed at America and American interests. In addition, funds and expertise are being directly funneled to nations within our own hemisphere, such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela by Moscow, Beijing and Tehran for the specific purpose of threatening the United States. Other than in a few specialty journals, when was the last time there was a significant, widely reported national debate on this topic?

At the same time that America’s proven, attainable domestic energy resources are greater than ever, U.S. consumers are paying outrageously high prices to fill their gas tanks and power their homes.  How is that justified?  Why does the federal government continue to refuse to allow the exploitation of energy resources within its vast land holdings? This issue is particularly salient when hostile nations such as Russia, Venezuela and those in the Middle East use their energy resources as a political weapon to achieve goals harmful to the interests of America and its allies.  Why have so few media outlets concentrated on this?

Despite greater sums than ever being spent on education, disappointing results are the norm. Why are American students, despite all those dollars, faring poorly in basic subjects?  Why do so many relevant textbooks neglect to inculcate students into the proud achievements of a nation that has led humankind in expanding freedom and prosperity, and instead frequently read like anti-U.S. propaganda tracts from enemy nations? Why does the press continue to soft-pedal this?

Ever greater sums of federal dollars are being committed to social welfare programs providing funding to young, healthy, individuals. The poverty rate remains unimproved, and the job participation rate continues to decline.  Since giveaway schemes haven’t worked, shouldn’t an effort be made to instead change course and engage in efforts that increase employment opportunities instead?

Several of our once-great inner cities have descended into bankruptcy and orgies of crime.  Some, like Chicago, have murder rates that would be unacceptable in warzones patrolled by American troops. Why have the pundits and broadcast barons not investigated the corrupt politics and overtly foolish ideological philosophies that have been the hallmark of these failed municipalities?
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There are, of course, many other challenges that could be mentioned. But the common denominator in all of these areas is the relatively light media coverage, biased academic discourse, and inadequate political debate that has taken place relating to them.

Absent that desperately needed discourse, these dramatic problems have already caused massive damage, and threaten to rapidly and irreversibly harm the United States to a degree from which it may not be able to recover.

 

 

 

 

 

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The Ryan Budget

When Ronald Reagan succeeded jimmy Carter, the phrase “paradigm shift” became ubiquitous due to the radical alteration in the federal government’s focus.

Another such paradigm shift has been proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan, to the great consternation of both Democrats and some Republicans.  Progressives dislikes the concept because it would literally be a complete change of course in almost everything the President has done during his tenure in office. Republicans fear that his blunt assessments and rigorous policies would frighten voters.

Our review of the Ryan proposal, entitled the “Path to Prosperity,”  notes that it begins where both Democrats and Republicans have lately feared to tread: the issue of national defense.  President Obama and Senate Democrats have taken the US rapidly down the road towards significant arms reduction even while China, Russia, North Korea and Iran substantially expand their military.  While Republicans have objected to the White House’s actions, they have not acted as vigorously as expected, in substantial part due to the influence of “budget hawks” who point to the overwhelming national deficit and the isolationist influence of the increasingly popular Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky).

In a complete reversal of that trend, the Ryan budget begins with an emphasis on “Protecting the nation…The first job of the federal government is to protect the nation from threats at home and abroad…” The proposal would halt any cuts that would impede the effectiveness of U.S. armed forces.

In direct contrast to the massive increase in entitlement spending during the Obama Administration, Ryan proposes an emphasis on job creation and a reversal of the dramatic upswing in regulations that affect both individuals and businesses.
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But neither the defense provisions nor the change in course from government growth vs. business growth may be considered the most controversial for both Democrat and Republican observers.

The proposal would, in essence, transform Medicare from an entitlement to a voucher-type system in 2024, allowing those retiring at that point an option to retain the current system or transfer to competing plans.  Even more controversial, it would gradually increase the retirement age.

It would cut $23 billion in agriculture subsidies, and transform the SNAP program (food stamps) into a block grant program.

While Ryan’s proposal can’t be faulted for its fiscal logic or its emphasis on reversing the extremely dangerous Obama defense policies, the potential “fear factor” it could generate among many voters renders it a gutsy but politically risky move.

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Will America Share the Fate of Distressed U.S. Cities?

The condition of several America’s cities may hold a lesson for the path the nation as a whole has been trending towards since the election of 2008.

A number of U.S. municipalities, most prominently Detroit, are in danger of bankruptcy or are already enduring insolvency in one form or another.  A major contributing cause comes from governing leaders choosing “progressive” ideology over practicality.

In 2014, The nation’s largest city, New York, has so far managed to escape the fate of these. But that success may not continue, due to the mayoral election of an individual who may fairly be described as more focused on ideology than practicality. There is an analogy to the fate of the entire nation in this example.

The Big Apple certainly has had its share of challenges, both recently and stretching back decades.  Excessive spending on social welfare at the same time that key local industries, including the maritime trade and light manufacturing were rapidly deteriorating and the stock market, a major player in the local economy, was on a downswing  placed the city in a deep financial crisis in the 1970s.   It managed to emerge from that cloud with the help of massive and loans and, more importantly,  when more fiscally sound policies were enacted.  However, Under the controversial leadership of Mayor David Dinkins  from 1990—1993, the city faced repeated crises of competence in municipal service delivery  and rising crime, leading many to believe that it had become “ungovernable.”

The able stewardship of Rudolph Giuliani  returned NYC so substantially that many called the revived metropolis “The Capital of the World” with ample justification. While the assault of 9/11 rocked the municipality, the solid foundation that had been laid under Giuliani’s two terms allowed it to recover.

His successor, Michael Bloomberg, chose a different path than Giuliani, raising taxes to address fiscal concerns as opposed to cutting them. However, Bloomberg’s emphasis on business development and restrained spending managed to allow the city’s prosperity to continue, despite his rather odd preoccupation with intrusive matters such as the dietary and exercise habits of his constituents.  During his tenure, his attempts to cut police and fire services were essentially thwarted by the City Council, allowing him to succeed almost in spite of himself.

New Mayor Bill De Blasio  promises to mark a far different course than his predecessors. His background is certainly controversial.  He was a supporter of the Nicaraguan Sandinista movement, which had invited Soviet military elements into that Latin American nation in the past and is doing the same for Russia today.

His ideology is essentially indistinguishable from the “Occupy Wall Street” movement, with its emphasis on hard-left ideology including increasing the tax burden as a matter of principle, eliminating the tough anti-crime stance that began under Mayor Giuliani, and attacking non-traditional public schools despite their success.  He has also been tainted by a scandal involving his bizarre attack on the city’s popular horse and carriage tourist attraction, which apparently had been prompted by the desire of one of his significant campaign contributors to obtain the valuable property used by that industry. Unlike what occurred for his predecessor Bloomberg, the City Council will not thwart de Blasio’s unusual tendencies since that institutions’ newly elected leadership shares them.
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If Mr. de Blasio succeeds in radicalizing governing policies, key financial industries and major taxpayers could reduce their presence in the city, causing a major revenue gap.  Additionally, the expected increase in crime and the distress of parents about turning over control of the schools to a radicalized union could result in the same type of middle-class exodus that proved to be Detroit’s downfall.

NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Similarly, the policies of the national government since 2008 have taken a far more radical path from those in the past. National spending for social welfare programs, similar to what has caused distress to municipalities, has soared, with little effect in reducing poverty.

A lack of fiscal support for police which in the past led to increases in crime is mirrored in the cuts to the American defense infrastructure, which is leading to increased aggressiveness on the part of those nations intent on breaking international law.

The burdens placed on key national industries as a result of overbroad EPA regulations, an aggressive federal Labor Department, and the added expenses faced under the Affordable Care Act mirror the challenges that resulted in many vital industries leaving urban centers for less regulated venues.

The practices that have shaken confidence in local governments in Detroit, Chicago, and other cities find a counterpart in questions about the distribution of stimulus dollars by the White House as well as in the growing lack of trust due to the IRS, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, and other scandals.

Whether the Executive Branch will take note of the fate of troubled cities and changes its course remains to be seen.