NY Analysis Blog – Page 374

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Quick Analysis

North Korea’s Growing Nuclear Threat, Part 2

The Congressional Research Service has released a major new report on North Koreas’ nuclear weapons and missile programs. We conclude our presentation of that report. Nuclear Warheads North Korean government statements show that the country is aiming to increase its stockpile of nuclear warheads and improve their design for a variety of delivery systems. Some nongovernmental experts estimate that North Korea has produced enough fissile material for up to 90 warheads but may have assembled approximately 50. Another goal of a nuclear weapon program is to lower the size and weight of a nuclear warhead for deployment on missiles, called “miniaturization.” A July 2017 DIA assessment asserted North Korea had achieved the level of miniaturization required to fit a nuclear device on weapons ranging from short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM). Kim Jong-un in January 2021 said that the country was able to “miniaturize, lighten and standardize nuclear weapons and to make them tactical ones.” In his January 1, 2023, speech, Kim said the country would expand its nuclear arsenal and “mass produce” tactical nuclear weapons. The 2024 ATA said that Kim ordered a “an increase in the nuclear weapons stockpile and the expansion of weapon-grade nuclear material production” in March 2023. The ATA said that “North Korea also unveiled a purported tactical nuclear warhead and claimed it could be mounted on at least eight delivery systems, including an unmanned underwater vehicle and cruise missiles.” Missile Testing North Korea has accelerated the pace of its ballistic missile test launches since 2022. UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions prohibit North Korea’s development of the means of delivering conventional and nuclear payloads, in addition to the nuclear weapons themselves. UNSC resolutions specifically ban “all ballistic missile tests” by North Korea. A ballistic missile is a projectile powered by a rocket engine until it reaches the apogee of its trajectory, at which point it falls back to earth using earth’s gravity. Ballistic missiles can deliver nuclear and large conventional payloads at high speed and over great distances. They are categorized as short-range, medium-range, or long-range (intercontinental) based on the distance from the launch site to the target. North Korea will likely continue testing and developing a variety of missiles to increase the reliability, effectiveness, and survivability of its ballistic missile force. According to the 2025 ATA, North Korea may be receiving technical expertise from Moscow in exchange for weapons sales, which “could accelerate North Korea’s testing and deployment efforts.” In his May 2025 congressional testimony, U.S. Forces Korea Commander said, “Russia’s expanded cooperation will enable advancements of DPRK’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program across the next three to five years.” Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles North Korea has been improving its ability to strike the continental United States with an ICBM through a series of tests, first in 2017, then in 2022, four times in 2023, and most recently in October 2024. The DPRK first successfully test-launched two liquid-propellant, road mobile ICBMs in 2017: the Hwasong-14 (U.S. designated KN-20) and Hwasong-15 (U.S. designated KN-22). North Korea displayed a larger Hwasong-17 ICBM at an October 2020 military parade and began test launching it in 2022. In December 2022, North Korea static (or ground) tested an ICBM solid-propellant rocket motor, potentially for a land based or submarine-based ICBM. On April 13, July 12, and December 17, 2023, North Korea flight tested its solid-fuel ICBM, the Hwasong-18. The October 31, 2024, test was assessed as a Hwasong-19 solid-propellant ICBM with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capability. These systems may require further testing to improve reliability. Short- and Medium-Range Missiles North Korean SRBMs and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM), precision-guided multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), and artillery pose the most acute near-term threats to other nations. Advances in these systems demonstrate a shift toward solid propellants and satellite guidance systems; advances that could carry over to larger, more potent systems like the Hwasong series ICBMs. These developments provide the projectiles greater mobility and survivability prior to launch and greater precision on target. Selected systems are described here. In the MRBM category, the Pukguksong-2 (KN-15) is a solid-propellant missile capable of carrying a nuclear or conventional payload—known as dual capable. The North Koreans fire the missile from a tracked vehicle, which gives the system mobility and makes prelaunch targeting of the system difficult. The KN-23 SRBM can strike any location on the Korean peninsula with either a conventional or nuclear payload and uses a solid-propellant. North Korea has committed to expanding the performance of its precision guided tactical weapons, which can pose significant threats to South Korea and U.S. assets on the peninsula. The KN-24 is a tactical system with a mobile launcher, solid propellant, and relatively large payload. The KN-25 blurs the line between rocket and missile; however, it achieves the same effect as a traditional SRBM by delivering destructive effects on a precision target at significant range. The North Koreans may seek to fire these rockets in salvos to overwhelm missile defense systems. The recent advances in North Korea’s ballistic missile program appear to be directed at developing capabilities to defeat or degrade the effectiveness of missile defenses in the region: Patriot, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). The United States and South Korea are developing Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD). North Korea’s progress with submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) suggests an effort to counter land-based THAAD missile defenses by launching attacks from positions at sea outside the THAAD’s radar field of view, although local Aegis BMD systems could likely still track these projectiles. The Pukgugsong-3 SLBM was successfully tested beginning in late 2019. According to a 2021 DIA report, North Korea has said this SLBM, to be launched from a ballistic missile submarine, will be cold launched, solid-fueled and “will carry a nuclear warhead.” North Korea has since then revealed development of longer-range SLBMs, the Pukguksong-4, -5, and -6. Unveiled in 2022, the Pukguksong-6 is a longer-range SLBN that some analysts assess is solid-fueled, MIRVed, and under development […]

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