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Growing Nuclear Challenges

The Defense Intelligence Agency issued a report on “Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivals.”  We provide a brief overview from the Executive Summary.

Countries with mature nuclear weapons programs are increasing stockpiles and/or program capabilities.

 Russia, China, and North Korea are modernizing their legacy stockpiles by incorporating advanced technologies to penetrate or avoid missile defense systems. Countries are also developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields, improved precision, and increased range for military or coercive use. China. Beijing has far surpassed earlier growth estimates assessed in 2018, and is currently exceeding 500 deliverable nuclear warheads in its stockpile. By 2030, we estimate that China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads— most of which will be fielded on systems capable of ranging the continental United States. China probably also seeks lower-yield nuclear warhead capabilities to provide proportional response options that its high-yield warheads cannot deliver. For example, China is increasing its stockpile of theater-range delivery systems, such as the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).

Russia. Over the past 4 years, Russia has maintained the largest foreign nuclear stockpile in the world. Moscow maintains about 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads on ICBMs and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), as well as a force of heavy bombers which are capable of carrying long-range air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs). Under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) counting rules, the heavy bombers count as one warhead each, but each bomber is capable of carrying eight or more air-launched cruise missiles. Russia also maintains a stockpile of up to 2,000 nuclear weapons which are designed to be incorporated into delivery systems with ranges shorter than those laid out in the New START treaty; these are commonly referred to as non-strategic nuclear weapons.

North Korea. North Korea has demonstrated the capability to produce plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and continues to increase the stockpile of these materials to support its nuclear weapons program. In early 2021, Kim Jong Un laid out a 5-year defense plan that emphasized developing tactical nuclear weapons, and further highlighted the importance of developing “smaller and lighter nuclear weapons,” and “ultra-large nuclear warheads.”1 Iran. Currently, Iran almost certainly does not have nuclear weapons and has agreed not to seek, develop, or acquire nuclear weapons. However, since 2019, Iran has exceeded several of the JCPOA’s limits, including the limits on the quantity and enrichment levels of its uranium stockpile, the locations where Iran enriches uranium, the number and types of enriching centrifuges, and the research and development with uranium metal.

Delivery Systems Strategic competitors and regional rivals to the United States continue to develop new nuclear weapon-capable delivery systems. These new systems often have longer range, better accuracy, and in some cases, a greater capability to defeat missile defenses.

China. The PLA Rocket Force is developing new ICBMs that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production for multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle capabilities and general force growth. The PLA Rocket Force also continues to grow its inventory of road-mobile DF-26 IRBMs, which can conduct both conventional and nuclear precision strikes against ground targets as well as conventional strikes against naval targets. China has also fielded two more Type 094 JINclass submarines for a total of six nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)—providing a capability for continuous peacetime deterrence patrols. Beijing has established a nascent air leg of a nuclear triad with the H-6N bomber which is capable of both aerial-refueling and carrying a nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile. In addition, China’s test of a global-range nuclearcapable hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) in July 2021 has demonstrated its technical ability to field a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS).

Russia. In early 2018, President Putin announced new advanced nuclear weapons he claimed were capable of evading current U.S. countermeasures. These weapons were the Sarmat ICBM, Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile, and the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater vehicle. Both the Sarmat ICBM and the Avangard fall under the auspices of New START. Additionally, Russia is currently developing new ballistic missile submarines and has armed its heavy bombers with high-precision cruise missiles. Moscow continues to support the SSC-8 ground-launched, intermediaterange, nuclear-capable cruise missile program.

North Korea. North Korea established the Strategic Force (previously known as the Strategic Rocket Forces) in 2012 and has described this organization as a nuclear-armed ballistic missile force. The Strategic Force includes units operating SRBMs, MRBMs, IRBMs, and ICBMs, each of which represent a nuclear-capable system class as stated by North Korea. North Korea continues to violate UN Security Council Resolutions and conducts launches of ballistic missile systems. In 2022, North Korea conducted dozens of missile tests—including its first IRBM and ICBM launches since 2017—to accelerate long-term missile and nuclear research and development (R&D) goals. In 2022, North Korea also indicated that the army performed drills to simulate the loading and launching of nuclear weapons in order to threaten the United States and its regional allies.

Iran. While Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, it continues to develop ballistic missile systems to increase their accuracy and lethality. Currently, the Iranian missile force is the largest in the Middle East and serves as Iran’s primary conventional deterrent, capable of striking targets 2,000 kilometers from its borders. Iran continues to develop space-launch vehicles with boosters that could be capable of ICBM ranges if configured for that purpose.

Photo: Test Launch of Chinese ICBM (China Military photo)