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Russia Seeks to Reverse Falling Birthrate

Nearly half of Russia’s regional leaders are implementing a new policy aimed at increasing the country’s birthrate by paying underage girls to become pregnant earlier than planned. In an attempt to reverse Russia’s declining fertility rate, officials are pushing the idea that it is these girls’ duty to the country to get pregnant, even if it is outside of marriage. The Kremlin is also restricting access to abortions. Earlier this year, The Moscow Times started reporting on the declining demographic numbers last fall. “Each year, Russia sees more than half a million more deaths than births, meaning that any growth would come from immigration, which faces unpopularity among a rising tide of xenophobia in Russia,” says Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. Last week infox.ru announced a new Kremlin program that called for adopting “programs to give one-time bonuses as large as 150,000 rubles ($1,600) to underage girls who get pregnant and carry their babies to term.” Boosting the birthrate is cast as supporting Russia’s national security. Putin’s war in Ukraine has increased the urgency and cost of changing the long-term demographic in population decline at its roots. The government is boosting incomes and attempting to improve economic prospects for these young teenage girls amid the prohibitively high cost of the war in Ukraine. Given that Russians typically begin families later than non-Russian ethnic groups in the country, it may exacerbate other issues for Putin. Not everyone in Russia supports the policy change despite the acceleration in the decline. The country’s moral leadership, demographers, and some senior officials argue that the programs will fail to increase the birthrate while undermining traditional Russian values. Many regional leaders say they can’t afford the cost of the underage pregnancy program. Vechernyaya Moskva reported last month that “opposition to this policy has spread to Moscow. Leaders with moral authority in the Duma, the Russian Orthodox Church, and the media view state support for the births of children outside of marriage as undermining ‘traditional’ values,” says Goble. The declining population is likely to impact the Russian economy and Putin’s military plans, according to the Nezavisimaya Gazeta last week. As the Kremlin searches for ways to reverse the decline, it needs to take in consideration avoiding financial costs or making fundamental changes to society. The underage pregnancy programs, which now total 41 across the country, follow the Kremlin’s implicit and explicit promotion of the strategy and represent a reversal of earlier programs to discourage teenage girls from getting pregnant. Russian demographers see the move as one of desperation that will fail. At least two ministers, among other high-ranking Russian officials, oppose the program on moral financial grounds. They argue the birthrate will not increase as the money will go to young girls already pregnant out of wedlock rather than those interested in becoming underage mothers. On April 11, The Moscow Times reported that to avoid Putin’s wrath some officials are working behind closed doors to reverse the policy. Russia faced an unprecedented low in recorded births in 2024 since 1999 of only 1.222 million births. That number will not sustain the country’s economy, military, and law enforcement. Given the demographic environment, analysts in Washington believe it is unlikely the Kremlin will close the program. Rising opposition to it also makes it unlikely that the program will spread nationwide. “The program is likely to continue, although in fewer places and with less money, as yet another example of how the continued existence of Russian federal structures matter despite Putin’s attempts to gut federalism of its more familiar meanings,” says Goble. Russia’s ethnic makeup may also impact the longevity of the teenage pregnancy program. Putin is concerned as the birthrates in the non-Russian republics of the North Caucasus, which were historically high, are also declining. Moscow can’t depend on the region to make up for declines in other areas of the country. Analysts in Washington point out that Moscow’s earlier maternal capital program had the unintended consequence of disproportionately boosting the birthrate of groups the Kremlin was less interested in growing. Paying teenagers may emerge quickly as yet another major political issue destabilizing Putin’s regime. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay