Author: Frank V. Vernuccio, Jr.

Vladimir Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine are moving forward. In both Russia and neighboring Belarus, the Kremlin’s forces have taken positions which place its military in pre-attack formation.

As part of his preparations, Putin falsely accuses of NATO of being “aggressive,” and seeks to exercise a veto of what new members the alliance may add.  Unfortunately, bizarre statements by President Biden at a press conference indicated that his administration would not respond to a minor “incursion.”

 U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), a key member of the House Armed Services Committee, quickly criticized the comment.
 
“Let’s be clear, Mr. President: an invasion of another country is an invasion. There is no such thing as a ‘minor incursion’ into another country, especially when Russia already occupies large portions of Ukraine. For months, the Biden administration has refused to recognize the inconvenient truth that Putin has been preparing to further invade Ukraine. The Kremlin has built up a massive and expensive invasion force, fomented instability, launched cyber-attacks, and weaponized energy supplies.”

Since the U.S. has neglected to take its traditional leading role in opposing international adventurism, and NATO has taken up the slack. The alliance has issued a policy paper https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm clarifying its relations with Moscow, and responding to the Kremlin’s blatantly false statements.  According to the document, “NATO’s approach to Russia remains consistent: strong deterrence combined with political dialogue. We regret Russia’s decision to suspend the work of its diplomatic mission to NATO, and of NATO’s Military Liaison Office in Moscow, and to close down NATO’s Information Office in Moscow. These steps do not contribute to dialogue and mutual understanding… NATO is a defensive alliance, whose purpose is to protect our member states. Our exercises and military deployments are not directed against Russia – or any other country. This myth also ignores geography. Russia’s land border is just over 20,000 kilometres long. Of that, less than one-sixteenth (1,215 kilometres), is shared with NATO members. Russia has land borders with 14 countries. Only five of them are NATO members.”

Putin alleges that the placement of NATO troops on NATO soil is somehow provocative or threatening. The alliance responds that “There is no “contact line” between NATO and Russian forces – but internationally recognized borders of NATO Allies. NATO’s deployments on Allied territory are defensive, proportionate and in line with our international commitments. Our enhanced forward presence in the eastern part of our Alliance is not meant to provoke a conflict but to prevent a conflict. It is a response to Russia’s use of military force against its neighbors and its military build-up in the Baltic region and beyond…we see aggressive Russian military activities continuing, including a major build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine earlier this year.”

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Russia maintains that it has a “sphere of influence” in the former parts of its Empire. NATO rejects the concept.

“We reject any idea of spheres of influence in Europe – they are part of history and should remain part of history. Like every country, Ukraine has the sovereign right to choose its own security arrangements. This is a fundamental principle of European security, one that Russia has also subscribed to and should respect. After the end of the Cold War, Russia played a part in building an inclusive European security architecture, including through the Charter of Paris, the establishment of the OSCE, the creation of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, and the NATO-Russia Founding Act.”

The concept of negotiating with Moscow, a move which would provide giving the Kremlin something in return for not invading Ukraine, should not be taken seriously. No nation has the right to invade its neighbors, and should not be rewarded for not doing so.

Photo: Russian Armored vehicle during war games held in preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine. Russian Defence Ministry.

RUSSIA ON THE BRINK OF WAR?

Neorealism is the dominant paradigm academia uses when analyzing how states compete using hard power to maximize their national security. It is the way political leaders have operated since before the Peloponnesian Wars in 431 BC. Vladimir Putin understands history and the efficacy of using Russian military power, long-term strategies, and short-term tactics to achieve his end goals. Unlike the Russian leader, however, the historical lessons from over 2,000 years of war appear lost on the Biden Administration this week as it continues to insist diplomacy remains the soslutin to the Russian military threat to the sovereign nation-state of Ukraine. 

While political discourse is preferred, less costly in human and materiel costs, and can resolve many tense situations, that time has past. Washington appears ready to “cede the battlefield” and accept that Putin will invade the independent country of Ukraine. President Biden on Thursday confirmed the US commitment to Kiev with the State Department announcing the US will “impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia” if there is conflict. What massive consequences? On the same day the State Department issued a press statement announcing that “In advance of a potential further invasion of Ukraine… the United States today is imposing sanctions on four individuals connected to ongoing Russian intelligence service-directed influence activities designed to destabilize Ukraine.” While Putin is forward-staging over 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border Washington’s response is to sanction a few intelligence agents. Military analysts in Washington point out that such “minuscule sanctions” will not deter Russia and leave “Putin giggling at America’s show of weakness.” 

It should be noted that the Biden Administration also announced on Thursday that if Russia invaded Ukraine the US would send additional troops to Romania and Poland, which currently hosts about 5,500 American troops. Putin surely must view the odds as strongly in his favor. The tenor of the Biden Administration’s “diplomacy” suggests that Washington already has given up on Ukraine remaining an independent, free nation. Russia’s behavior should not come as a surprise to Washington. It has been seven years since Russia invaded Crimea. Last December 13, just five weeks ago, Putin upped his game when he declared that he may be forced to put “intermediate nuclear weapons in Europe.” There should be no misunderstanding in Washington that Putin views the world in terms of power politics. An increased threat by Russia requires a serious response from the US and its allies – whether diplomatic or direct military involvement. Putin is signaling that he intends to recreate the Russian empire. China and Iran are watching and waiting to see how the world reacts. The consequences of a tactically weak diplomatic response to the threat in Europe could have long-term repercussions as far away as Asia. 

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BELARUS

Belarus is holding more than 990 political prisoners and the number is growing daily. “In order to deflect attention from a domestic political crisis and in an effort to garner international attention, [President] Lukashenka and the region manufactured a migrant crisis. And it was only eight months ago that the regime forced the diversion of an EU passenger jet in order to arrest an opposition activist who was on board,” according to an unnamed senior State Department official. Washington sees warning signs that the dynamics inside Belarus are enabling Russia to further prey on Lukashenka’s self-inflicted vulnerability. As tensions in Europe heat up over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus is simultaneously proposing changes to its constitution that could be interpreted as paving the way for Russia to move forces permanently on Belarusian territory. The State Department official indicated that this would be a significant change for Belarus and present a challenge to European security that may require a unified response from the US and western democracies. The draft constitutional changes may indicate Belarus plans to allow both Russian conventional and nuclear forces to be stationed on its territory. 

Over the years Lukashenko has relied more heavily on the backing of Moscow. “Lukashenka has increasingly shown that he will trade it all in order to stay in power” according to a senior US official. That position is not strongly supported by the people of Belarus.  “… when a leader like Lukashenka starts talking about nuclear weapons, we should all pay attention” says the official. Washington is watching to see if there is a fundamental change that could indicate an increased risk of a two-front war in Europe in the future. In the East, China’s President Xi Jinping also is watching the situation on the European continent unfold.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department.

Advanced anti-satellite technology, hypersonic missiles with cutting edge test wind tunnels, hundreds of offensive ballistic missile silos in multiple locations, militarized artificial islands built in the South China Sea and global monopolization of pharmaceutical and rare earth metals production are only a few of China’s 21^st century list of achievements. Notice it does not include a strong domestic economy lifting hundreds of millions of Chinese across the country into a true middle-class lifestyle. Nor does it include a positive record for environmentalism, human rights, free speech, or religion. Too often the West overlooks the negative aspects of the militaristic rise of China to the detriment of stability in the rest of the international, rules-based system. Time is short to prepare for China’s next aggressive moves. US military analysts last year were surprised, with some admitting to “complete shock,” by Chinese advances in hypersonic missile technology that allowed it to test fly a rocket circumnavigating the world across the South Pole and land it within an acceptable target range. What can we expect from China in 2022?

The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence released a report in January that addresses what few inside the US Government are willing to admit. China’s space maneuver warfare forces are developing new systems beyond anything possessed by the United States or any Western democracy and they don’t look peaceful or defensive in nature. According to Christopher Stone, Senior Fellow for Space Studies, China is working on space vehicles with “nuclear thermal and electric propulsion capable of rapidly transferring between orbits to conduct offensive and defensive missions” that will be deployable by 2040. US satellites current capabilities are limited to restricted maneuverability and predictable orbits. Imagine a lethal game of PacMan in space with China fielding a full range of nuclear propelled weapon systems capable of gobbling up American satellites that use antiquated chemical propulsion systems. If the West doesn’t develop nuclear thermal propulsion (SNTP) systems soon the future looks grim given the advances by America’ adversaries.

Stone argues that US space systems are at a critical inflection point as both China and Russia are rapidly developing systems with increased thrust and endurance that will “leapfrog current US space architectures and operational concepts and devastate US space forces.” It will make maintaining the nation’s space superiority in peace and in war nearly impossible. The report says that China has developed “ground-based and space-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons that can degrade, damage, and even destroy America’s vital space power capabilities.” If China continues developing its multi-layered counterspace architecture and the US and Western democracies do not prepare for an increasingly aggressive Chinese foreign policy, the world could in less than two decades face a major shift in the balance of power existing in the Westphalian international order.

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Chinese leaders often speak publicly of reclaiming their losses during the “century of humiliation” in which Western powers forced a series of unequal treaties on China that during, and after, the Opium Wars gave foreign governments unfair privileges to Chinese markets, access to ports, while dominating the country militarily. Unlike the West with its flexible alliance system where one’s adversary in one period may be an ally in another, China has not forgotten or forgiven the West. Xi Jinping, president of China, has stated that he intends to rectify the injustices of the 19^th century imposed by the imperialist powers. Perhaps a better descriptor than rectify is revenge. If China continues on its current course it will be able to use radio frequency jammers and illumination lasers to temporarily debilitate American satellites. Another layer of China’s space architecture includes weapons that can permanently degrade and even destroy satellites, such as ground-launched ASAT missiles. By 2040 China, and perhaps Russia, will be capable of reaching satellites at all orbital altitudes and employ directed energy weapons like high-power lasers. A 2014 US military publication from Fort Leavenworth warned that traditional resiliency measures alone are insufficient to protect and defend against enemies like China that believe rapid and destructive space warfare will be part of future great power conflict and integral to China’s military strategy. The US and Western democracies can no longer pretend like the three monkeys to neither see, hear, nor speak of the challenges we face in a world where power politics is the dominant paradigm.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department, specializing on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Will he or won’t he? That is the question garnering the attention of political-military analysts in Washington and capitals around Europe this week. It appears that President Vladimir Putin is poised to order the Russian military to invade Ukraine again. Unlike the 2014 Russian occupation in the Donbas region in Eastern Ukraine, however, it appears this time Russian military planners have spent considerable time prepping and refining all the details. 

Over the last year Russia conducted a number of large-scale military exercises near the Ukrainian border. In effect Putin’s troops were a practice invasion force. Instead of the forces leaving the area at end of the exercises, the Russian president ordered some of the troops and  heavy materiel to be left behind along the Ukrainian border. It is a move that analysts in Washington are labeling a “forward-deployment” in preparation for a potential invasion that may come in the next few weeks. The staging will allow Russia to move quickly when it decides to activate its forces. The Russian propaganda machine also is active delivering warlike rhetoric that Evelyn Farkas, writing in the publication Defense One, says “has saturated Russian airwaves” along with Putin’s ultimatums. The situation remains fluid. Last week demonstrations in Kazakhstan appeared to dampen the tempo when Putin sent 3,000 paratroopers to the country to help quell the violence. According to analysts, the personnel and financial commitment by Moscow may have delayed but did not stop Putin’s strategic plan for Ukraine.

The Biden White House has been speaking with European leaders and President Putin in a diplomatic effort to tamp down the situation along the Ukrainian border. Farkas says that the “basic reason… talks with Russia will fail is that the United States and its allies have nothing they can immediately offer Moscow in exchange for a de-escalation. So far ultimatums out of Washington, including the threat of economic penalties and sanctions has done little to alter the tension.

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Farkas argues that “US leaders should be marshalling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war.” There is some indication that if Russia invades there is nothing left to restrain Putin from moving farther beyond Russia’s current borderlands in a land grab that could result in the restoration of all the pre-1991 borders. This would restore what Putin often has referred to as the unjust stripping of land from Great Russia. If US and other world leaders refuse to stand up to Putin now it will have repercussions throughout the world. One analyst called it the beginning of the end of the current world order. It could embolden China to move up it time schedule for retaking Taiwan if Beijing viewed Western, democratic leaders as impotent in the face of a military operation.“Nuclear Russia is a revisionist, revanchist power acting already as if there is no international order or United Nations, ignoring the Geneva Conventions, UN Charter, Helsinki Accords or any of the host of regional agreements Moscow has signed,” according to Farkas. The uprising in Kazakhstan may have convinced Putin that the recent democratic uprisings or “color revolutions” are a threat to Russian national security as they incentivize domestic Russian minority groups. The events of the past week are morphing into a broader issue as Putin is challenging the rules-based international order, NATO, and the the Western alliance in the United Nations.  To date Putin has challenged and won at every step along the way. Since the dissolution of the USSR Putin has established Russian bases in Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Moldova. In 2008 when George was making overtures concerning membership in NATO Putin invaded two small northern provinces in the country. According to the NATO charter a country cannot become a Member state if it does not have control over its territory. Russian troops continue to occupy 20% of Georgia. Putin continues to grow bolder with each move. The Russian leader now is demanding a guarantee from President Biden that NATO will not move further east and that the United States will not support NATO in a move against Russia. It may be time to build a new coalition of the willing, who can restrain Putin while it still is possible.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

The latest geopolitical hotspot is a Russian-leaning country located on the western border of China in Central Asia. Putin intends for it to remain under Russia’s influence. However, in a briefing in Beijing last Friday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs took advantage of the unrest by announcing that “China and Kazakhstan are friendly neighbors and true strategic partners.” China called their 1,107 mile-long border a “bridge of friendship and a link of cooperation.” In recent years China has dramatically improved its economic and political connections in the region, purchased Petrokazakhstan, the former Soviet Union’s largest independent oil company, and built a pipeline that moves Kazakh oil to the Chinees border. By 2016, China had poured over $16 billion into the petroleum sector in Kazakhstan. 

The relatively wealthy Central Asian nation of 19 million is situated squarely between China and Russia and has, until recently, escaped the attention of most Western media and political analysts. Its territory is comparable in size to Europe’s, making it the 9^th largest country in the world and the world’s largest landlocked nation. From a geopolitical perspective it is of growing importance to China’s global ambitions. President Xi Jinping is on a quest to increase China’s influence in Kazakhstan and across the Central Asian states to wean them from Russia’s sphere of influence. Competition and cooperation in the region between the two giant nuclear powers should be of concern to all peace-loving people.

Kazakhstan produces about 40% of the world’s uranium today. Since 2011 it is ranked as the world’s largest producer of raw uranium. It also has an abundance of natural gas, oil, and various other precious metals. What concerns military analysts most is the country’s vast uranium resources. Russian-financed companies currently pay for most mining operations in the country. The raw material is transported to Russia for refinement, then returned to Kazakhstan, and finally sold to China for use in its nuclear assemblies. Following Xi Jinping’s mid-December talks with Putin, the Chinese president stated that  China’s intention is to “resume flexible and multifaceted cooperation with Russia and other CTSO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] countries in order to maintain security and stability in the region.” Xi is determined to be a major player. 

Kazakhstan’s goal is to balance its relationship between the two nuclear giants. During the recent violent protects in Kazakhstan, its president called on Russia for help. Although President Vladimir Putin was able to quell last week’s protests by sending in over 3,000 paratroopers, he remains concerned about losing influence in the country to China. From the Chinese perspective, President Xi Jinping is acutely aware that Russia is signaling that it does not want increased Chinese involvement in the Central Asian state. China is not allowing Russia to block its efforts.

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Kazakhstan is emerging in 2022 as a new testing ground for violent anti-government protests at a time when China and Russia are preparing to coordinate a security network for Central Asian and Eurasian nations to stop NATO expansion. Moscow is concerned that the recent protests resembled the “color revolutions” and that they may destabilize other regional states currently within its sphere of influence. China, which experienced its own pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the more recent demonstrations in Hong Kong also is against similar revolutions. Although these are areas of cooperation, there also is a behind-the-scenes aspect of competition which puts Putin and Xi at odds with each other. 

China prefers using soft power instruments in the region, which once served as part of the ancient Chinese Silk Route and today is part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Instability in Kazakhstan, including any anti-Chinese sentiment, could increase security concerns for Beijing. Second, China runs a huge bitcoin mining operation in Kazakhstan which some claim has threatened the country’s electric grid and led to blackouts. With the concurrent increase in the price of LNG, electricity-caused anger helped spark the recent protests. 

Kazakhstan balances Russian geopolitical and economic influence by remaining close ties with China. Beijing remains concerned, too, that any ethic violence inside the country could spread across the Chinese border area into the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and fuel rebel groups there. It was less than a year ago, on March 27, that hundreds of people staged anti-China demonstrations across Kazakhstan to denounce the incarceration of Turkic-speaking communities inside China. It looks like it will remain a hotspot for the foreseeable future as both Beijing and Moscow cooperate, compete, and vie for power and influence across the region.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

Under Article 1 of the United States Constitution, “All legislative powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States.”  After enumerating a list of the various powers of the Congress, Article 1, Section 8 states “(t)he Congress shall have power… (t)o make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the government of the United States, or in any department or officer thereof.” 

Thus, it is basic to our structure of government that Congress makes the laws, and can delegate to “any department or officer” whatever power is necessary to execute and enforce those laws.

It is also a basic tenet of the US Constitution that under Article 2,  “(t)he President is responsible for implementing and enforcing the laws written by Congress.”    That is, the President does not make the laws.

In September of 2021, we analyzed a speech given by Joe Biden that same month, in which the President announced that “the Department of Labor is developing an emergency rule to require all employers with 100 or more employees, that together employ over 80 million workers, to ensure their workforces are fully vaccinated or show a negative test at least once a week.”  At that time, we quoted Justin Haskins, director of the Stopping Socialism Project at The Heartland Institute, who stated that “(n)othing in the Constitution suggest that the executive branch can impose blanket vaccine regulations on private businesses or their employees,” and Blake Ziegler of The Observer, who said “the Department of Labor cannot simply create new laws (that’s Congress’s job). It can only enact regulations under existing laws and its authority established by Congress.”  Based upon this authority, we predicted that the Vaccine Mandate to private employers would be found unconstitutional. 

In August of last year, we also discussed the mandate for healthcare workers to be vaccinated.  At that time, we predicted that the legal efforts to halt this requirement would be unsuccessful, since “(r)equiring healthcare workers to submit to a vaccination as a condition of their employment is nothing new.” 

Not to say that we told you so, but…we told you so.

In a pair of rulings handed down this month, the US Supreme Court invalidated the vaccine mandate to companies which have 100 or more employees, but upheld the vaccine mandate to healthcare workers.  In each case, the Court was called upon to determine whether or not Congress had authorized the “department or officer” to act. 

An examination of each decision will reveal the Constitutionally consistent basis for these two different rulings.

In Biden v. Missouri, the Court reviewed a rule promulgated by the Secretary for Health and Human Services “that, in order to receive Medicare and Medicaid funding, participating facilities must ensure that their staff—unless exempt for medical or religious reasons—are vaccinated against COVID–19.” 

The Supreme Court found that “(b)oth Medicare and Medicaid are administered by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, who has general statutory authority to promulgate regulations ‘as may be necessary to the efficient administration of the functions with which [he] is charged”…One such function—perhaps the most basic, given the Department’s core mission—is to ensure that the healthcare providers who care for Medicare and Medicaid patients protect their patients’ health and safety…To that end, Congress authorized the Secretary to promulgate, as a condition of a facility’s participation in the programs, such ‘requirements as [he] finds necessary in the interest of the health and safety of individuals who are furnished services in the institution’…Relying on these authorities, the Secretary has established long lists of detailed conditions with which facilities must comply to be eligible to receive Medicare and Medicaid funds.”

“On November 5, 2021, the Secretary issued an interim final rule amending the existing conditions of participation in Medicare and Medicaid to add a new requirement—that facilities ensure that their covered staff are vaccinated against COVID–19… A facility’s failure to comply may lead to monetary penalties, denial of payment for new admissions, and ultimately termination of participation in the programs.”

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On this basis, the Court found that the rule requiring all employees of a healthcare facility to be vaccinated “falls within the authorities that Congress has conferred upon (the Secretary)… Congress has authorized the Secretary to impose conditions on the receipt of Medicaid and Medicare funds that ‘the Secretary finds necessary in the interest of the health and safety of individuals who are furnished services’…The rule thus fits neatly within the language of the statute. After all, ensuring that providers take steps to avoid transmitting a dangerous virus to their patients is consistent with the fundamental principle of the medical profession: first, do no harm.”

Further, “the Secretary routinely imposes conditions of participation that relate to the qualifications and duties of healthcare workers themselves… (a)nd the Secretary has always justified these sorts of requirements by citing his authorities to protect patient health and safety… a vaccination requirement under these circumstances is a straightforward and predictable example of the ‘health and safety’ regulations that Congress has authorized the Secretary to impose.”

Whether or not we agree with the result, the issue in Biden v. Missouri is relatively straightforward and simple.  Did Congress give the Secretary of Health and Human Services the authority to issue the vaccine directive?  The answer is just as simple – yes.  The Secretary is empowered by Congress with the discretion to enact whatever rules he finds necessary to protect the health of Medicare and Medicaid benefit recipients.  The vaccine mandate to healthcare workers is a legitimate exercise of that authority. 

Contrast this ruling with the holding of the second case, National Federal of Independent Business v. Department of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health Administration.  There, “(t)he Secretary of Labor, acting through the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, recently enacted a vaccine mandate for much of the Nation’s work force…(i)t requires that covered workers receive a COVID–19 vaccine, and it pre-empts contrary state laws…OSHA has never before imposed such a mandate. Nor has Congress. Indeed, although Congress has enacted significant legislation addressing the COVID–19 pandemic, it has declined to enact any measure similar to what OSHA has promulgated here.” 

As in Biden v. Missouri, the Court went through an analysis of the power of the Secretary of Labor to promulgate rules and directives to an agency under his control – in this case, OSHA. “As its name suggests, OSHA is tasked with ensuring occupational safety— that is, ‘safe and healthful working conditions’…It does so by enforcing occupational safety and health standards promulgated by the Secretary…Such standards must be ‘reasonably necessary or appropriate to provide safe or healthful employment’…

“On September 9, 2021, President Biden announced…that the Department of Labor would issue an emergency rule requiring all employers with at least 100 employees ‘to ensure their workforces are fully vaccinated or show a negative test at least once a week’…After a 2-month delay, the Secretary of Labor issued the promised emergency standard…Consistent with President Biden’s announcement, the rule applies to all who work for employers with 100 or more employees…”

In finding this rule invalid, the Court noted that “Administrative agencies are creatures of statute. They accordingly possess only the authority that Congress has provided. The Secretary has ordered 84 million Americans to either obtain a COVID–19 vaccine or undergo weekly medical testing at their own expense. This is no ‘everyday exercise of federal power’…It is instead a significant encroachment into the lives—and health—of a vast number of employees. ‘We expect Congress to speak clearly when authorizing an agency to exercise powers of vast economic and political significance’ (citation omitted)…

“The question, then, is whether the Act plainly authorizes the Secretary’s mandate. It does not. The Act empowers the Secretary to set workplace safety standards, not broad public health measures…Although COVID– 19 is a risk that occurs in many workplaces, it is not an occupational hazard in most. COVID–19 can and does spread at home, in schools, during sporting events, and everywhere else that people gather. That kind of universal risk is no different from the day-to-day dangers that all face from crime, air pollution, or any number of communicable diseases. Permitting OSHA to regulate the hazards of daily life—simply because most Americans have jobs and face those same risks while on the clock—would significantly expand OSHA’s regulatory authority without clear congressional authorization.”

In Biden v. Missouri, the Court found the Secretary of Health and Human Services to be acting in accordance with the powers delegated to him by Congress.  In National Federal of Independent Business, the Court found that the Secretary of Labor, acting under the order of the President, and not the Congress, exceeded his authority.  In each case, the Supreme Court avoided the political implications of their decisions, and made their ruling under the guidelines established in the US Constitution.

In other words, the system created by the Founders worked, exactly as they intended.

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in New York City

Democrats have seized upon a disturbing strategy to overcome their massive handicap in the 2022 and 2024 upcoming elections.

Since their victory in 2020, they have dominated both the executive and legislative branches of the federal government, along with the city halls of most major cities.  The Party has also benefited from extraordinary support from the news, entertainment, and social media realms.

Their resulting exercise of near-total authority has led to terrible results. Having made COVID its signature issue, the Biden Administration has utterly failed to provide viable results, rational plans, or meaningful leadership. The botched withdrawal from Afghanistan has proven to be one of the worst foreign policies disasters in decades.  Its projection of weakness has encouraged Russian aggression in Ukraine, and Chinese adventurism in the Pacific. 

Democrats have misled the American public about their border policy, rejecting the very obvious fact that they have opened the boundary wide. Key beneficiaries of this abdication of a prime responsibility to defend U.S. territory have been drug cartels and human traffickers.

Immediately upon taking office, Biden successfully attacked key aspects of American energy independence, initiating an inflationary spiral at home, alienating union workers, enriching Moscow’s financial ability to fund its armed forces, and making U.S. allies, particularly in Europe, dependent on nations opposed to the West for energy resources.

American cities dominated by Democratic mayors and district attorneys have descended into chaos. As a result of policies such as bail reform, defunding police forces, decriminalization of certain activities, and emptying out jails, looting is rampant, violence is widespread, and homicides have skyrocketed. Businesses and families are fleeing these metropolises for more sane jurisdictions.

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 Facing polls that express pervasive public disgust with their current actions and future plans, Democrats and their media allies are resorting to extreme strategies to retain their power. Among their proposals: allowing aliens and felons to vote, federalizing all elections under the Democratic-dominated federal government, abolishing all safeguards on voting security, packing the U.S. Supreme Court, changing the nature of the U.S. Senate, abolishing the Electoral College, censoring the speech of their political opponents, and outright bans on some individuals from seeking elective office.

At first blush, these proposals would appear to be nonstarters with the public.  However, seizing upon a single day’s violence in one city as an excuse, a phalanx of elected officials and media supporters are using the events of January 6. 2021 as a reason to implement parts of the strategy. 

The crocodile tears over the admittedly wrong actions on a single day in a single city reek of hypocrisy. Many Democrats have excused and even supported years-long attacks in numerous locations on federal court houses, invasions of police stations, burning of shops, homes and neighborhoods, as well as assaults on innocent passers-by.  The support has been far more than verbal. Vice President Harris urged supporters to help bail out perpetrators of these foul acts when she served in the Senate. In the past, Democrat presidents have pardoned those who shot up a session of Congress and bombed federal facilities.

The use of a single occurrence of violence as an excuse to shut down political opponents has a disturbing pedigree.   The United State Holocaust Museum notes that in 1933, the German parliament (Reichstag) building burned down, which Nazis claimed was an attempt by their political opponents to challenge their power.  “They claimed that emergency legislation was needed to prevent this. The resulting act, commonly known as the Reichstag Fire Decree, abolished a number of constitutional protections and paved the way for Nazi dictatorship…The decree permitted the regime to arrest and incarcerate political opponents without specific charge, to dissolve political organizations, and to confiscate private property. The decree also gave the regime the authority to overrule state and local laws and overthrow state and local governments.”

The extraordinary, divisive and militant comments made by many in the media and the leadership of the Democratic Party sound uncomfortably familiar. The calculation appears to have been made that oppressive tactics may be the only avenue to preserve their power in the face of failed actions and unpopular proposals.  

Photo: Germany’s Reichstag, 1932 (Holocaust Museum)

The nation owes a debt to former Congressional Representative Tulsi Gabbard, who, as a Democrat and a woman evaded the massive power of Progressive media would-be censors and issued a much-needed warning about the growing authoritarianism of the Biden Administration.

Appearing on Fox News, Gabbard, who ran in the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential Primaries, stated:

“…one of the most disturbing things that I see…is… how President Joe Biden has his attorney general targeting Americans as domestic terrorists for being, quote, unquote, ‘anti-authority.’” And what is so extremely dangerous about this… is that the president of the United States is the authority …And so, if our president is targeting Americans for being, quote, unquote, ‘anti-authority,’ what they’re really saying is you are an enemy of the state if you are against the president or his policies. This is the foundation of authoritarianism. And it’s — the message that is received by people at home is if you’re going to target me for being against your policies as the president, there will be consequences, and therefore what are people to do? Shut up, step back, and fall in line. And this — this is unacceptable in our democracy and must not go unchecked.”

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Defying the authoritarian Progressive domination of the Democrat Party and its subservient media outlets has made Gabbard a vital voice in the national discussion about the overwhelming dangers of the Biden Administration’s budding attempt to criminalize political opposition by labelling it as terrorism, while at the same time failing to respond to the very real dangers from the tyrannical leadership of China, Russia, and Iran. Gabbard sharply criticized Biden’s inexplicable action of ending America’s Keystone XL pipeline, while at the same time endorsing Russia’s Nord Stream equivalent. Ending U.S. energy independence has done much more than simply causing massive domestic inflation.  It has dramatically increased Moscow’s financial ability to fund its military and engage in aggression.  Significant question must be raised about Biden’s reluctance to do more than merely discuss sanctions against Putin’s regime in response to the planned invasion of Ukraine.  That same strategy utterly failed to deter the Kremlin’s takeover of Crimea during the Obama-Biden regime. Serious questions must be raised about whether the Biden family’s financial profiting from dealings with Chinese and Russian interests have influenced his policies. Unfortunately, a politicized Justice Department will not fairly investigate that probability.  Biden is further protected by a supportive media which does its best to ignore that reality and label anyone who discusses it a conspiracy theorist.

Underlying much of the growing concern over the trend towards authoritarianism by the Biden Administration, Speaker Pelosi, and Senator Schumer is the push to end safeguards on elections. America’s saving grace is the sanctity of the ballot box. No matter how much power an occupant of the White House has accumulated, the ability of the people to vote him out of office always serves as a powerful check. Now, that is being challenged by legislation that would allow unscrupulous politicians to (without fear of exposure by the media or prosecution by the politicized Justice Dept.) to engage in tactics such as unverified mail-in ballots, same day registration, ballot harvesting, and prohibiting the checking of ID. Individual states who are repelled by these illicit practices would be prevented from taking action by measures which, in defiance of the Constitution, federalize election practices.

Biden, Pelosi and Schumer are seasoned politicians who fully realize how bad the polls are for them. The President’s dismal 33% approval and Congress’s even worse 21% approval rate clearly portend massive loses in upcoming elections. Rather than reform their disastrous policies and cease attempting to criminalize opposition, they have chosen instead to seek to enact measures which would end fair elections.

SWEDEN

The Baltic Sea does not typically make the international news cycle as it did this week when Sweden’s highest ranking military leader, Lt. Gen Leif Michael Claesson, announced that the country is repositioning its military as it is seeing increased Russian activity in the Baltic Sea. According to 

AP News, Claesson said, “We will act in different locations in Sweden, in different manners,” adding they would be visible on Gotland, a strategically important Baltic Sea island. It is located just over 186 miles from the Russian Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad. 

Earlier this week Maj. Gen. Lena Hallin, head of Sweden’s military intelligence agency, told reporters things are far from normal in Sweden and that it is incorrect to say increased tension over Russian military activity is an illusion. Countries all along Russia’s border as well as NATO Member states are concerned over Russian actions and intensified threats to Ukraine. Recognition of the increased threat is not new to Sweden. Just over a year ago the country’s Parliament approved a 40% increase in what amounts to the largest defense budget in 70 years due to perceived dangers in the Baltic Sea from Russia.  

Defense Minister Peter Hultquist the increase in the defense budget “the largest investment since the 1950s.” Sweden will add a fifth submarine to its fleet and grow its armed forces from 55,000 to 90,000 by 2030. Sweden last year adopted what it calls “the NATO option,” meaning that Sweden which is not a Member may decide to join as a security option if faced with new external threats. Currently, Sweden is part of NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program of bilateral cooperation between individual Euro-Atlantic partner countries and NATO. PfP allows partners to build up an individual relationship with NATO, choosing their own priorities for cooperation. Finland, which is also a PfP participant is considering future plans with NATO if the Russian threat further increases.

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BULGARIA

Over 150,000 years ago Neanderthal man already was living in the area of southeast Europe that today is known as Bulgaria. It is a small country of 6.8 million strategically located on the Black Sea to the north of Greece and south of Romania. Although it became a member of the European Union (EU) in 2007 it rarely makes international headlines in recent years. Today an “arc of conflicts, extending from Moldova through Ukraine to the South Caucasus and Central Asia, serves the Kremlin’s strategy of geopolitical control,” according to Valeri Ratchev and Todo Tagarev of the Jamestown Foundation. They point out that the Black Sea, which includes Bulgaria, is the region most severely affected by the tensions between the Russian Federation and the Transatlantic alliance.  Bulgaria however, unlike Sweden, appears more concerned with uninterrupted flows of natural gas, oil and tourists than taking sides. It is trying to maintain a low profile and not anger Russia as tensions in the region escalate according to Ratchev and Tagarev. No Bulgarian government to date has developed a specific policy toward this region nor played an active role in NATO or the EU in developing a Black Sea strategy. 

“Instead of a rational threat assessment,” they argue, “the central perspective of Bulgaria’s regional policy is the belief that the country sits at the intersection of three integration projects—European, Russian and Turkish. European (including NATO) integration provides everything essential for the country in political, economic and security terms.” It results in three consequences for the small Turkic state.  First, its economic interests dominate over political and security considerations to an unacceptably high level. Second, Ratchev and Tagarev note that governments in Sofia, may sacrifice important political values and principles to access energy resources and markets. Finally, Russia and Turkey have opposing economic meanings for Bulgaria since Russia is a source of energy dependence and a high trade deficit, while Turkey is a comprehensive market and a gateway to other regions. An unanswered question is that with tensions increasing from the Baltic to the Black Sea, can smaller states like Sweden and Bulgaria stand up to, or avoid being drawn into, a wider conflict with Russia in the coming months.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department during the Reagan Administration.

The West just celebrated the 2022 New Year. China will celebrate its Lunar New Year Festival on February 1 this year. In between are a few weeks where no one knows if the world will become embroiled in conflicts ranging from Russian military intrusions in the Ukraine to Chinese naval activity near Taiwan. The political machinations of world leaders of late increases the risk of a regional war with the potential to morph into a global conflagration. The end game may be decided by which political leader has the political willpower to end it.

Not one to be left out of global leadership discussions, Chinese President Xi Jinping has added to the risk level recently with renewed demands that Indonesia, with the 7^th largest GDP in the world, halt all oil and natural gas development around the Natuna Islands in the South China Sea. China also is claiming the Japanese-owned Senkaku Islands as its own. What is China planning in its political and military maneuvering throughout the Asian waters? Depending on the military analyst asked it spans the spectrum from Chinese blustering for international prestige to an expanded attempt by the CCP leadership for global hegemony.

According to the publication Nikkei Asia, China is claiming Indonesia is infringing on its territorial waters by drilling in the South China Sea around the Natuna Islands. In response, China has sent Coast Guard vessels into the area to intimidate Indonesia. Tensions around these atolls has been escalating over the last two years. Indonesia sought the assistance of the UN in May 2020 to refute Beijing’s illegitimate claims. China then demanded Indonesia negotiate the issue. Jakarta refused to comply with Xi Jinping’s summons. The UN has defined China’s claim of the “9-dash line” demarcating its coastal territory as invalid under international law. China doesn’t recognize the UN determination and continues to threaten Indonesia and other countries in the region.

The United States supports Indonesia’s claim and is working with the government to build a coast guard training facility near the disputed islands. The two countries held their largest-ever joint military exercise simulating island defenses last summer. Although Indonesian officials are concerned about China’s future intensions in the area, it leadership is attempting to restrain its response to lower tensions between the two nations. 

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Tensions between China and Japan also are on the rise. “From the beginning of the year through Sunday, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have entered Japan’s territorial waters near the Senkakus in the East China Sea a total of 40 days,” according to the Japan Coast Guard. China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency pointed out that in November President Xi Jinping became personally involved in what it calls an “arbitration” over the Japanese islands. Xinhua stated: “”Xi has spearheaded strategic and tactical planning and, if necessary, [is] personally intervened.” It appears China is not willing to back away from its aggressive behavior anywhere in Asia.

Michael Auslin, of the Hoover Institution, warns that the United States and other countries should not back down in the face of Chinese adventurism or its domestic human rights abuses in 2022. In a December article he says: “The 428-1 vote on the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, the second in as many years, is the clearest indicator yet of how a new era in American relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is developing.”  The current public-private sector divide over Chinese foreign policy is a challenge for American corporations and the government. It “reveals a larger fracture in American society. It’s one that presages an ongoing battle between those who seek to reduce the threat to US interests posed by our half-century-old China policy and those who are too deeply embedded with the PRC to easily extricate themselves or who continue to benefit from unlimited engagement with China,” according to Auslin. American companies profiting from China may be hard-pressed to pull out of the country even with its aggression toward American friends and allies in the region. Austin says that “In the topsy-turvy world of US-China relations… even a commonsense attempt to deny Beijing its blood profits becomes entangled in quarterly bottom lines and distasteful horse trading.” At some point the US will have to decide the importance of its Asian alliances and business profits in comparison to curtailing to rise of an anti-democratic Chinese hegemon.

Photo: China Defence Ministry

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.