Author: Daria Novak

Ask any insider in the foreign policy community in Washington, DC what the term “power broker” means, and the response will be a litany of information about how our President, the National Security Council, and State Department are working around the world to ensure US national security interests and concerns are met and the US retains it hegemonic status. They will confirm adamantly that the United States is the world leader in everything imaginable and that no country could successfully replace us. But is that the case today? Over the last few years foreign nations are paying closer attention to overtures from China’s CCP leadership and its overseas economic programs. Countries once firmly in the US camp are turning to Beijing to broker third party deals and help resolve their international conflicts. We are at war with China, but it is not a Westphalian concept of conflict. 

Differing tools and methodologies make it “difficult for the West to admit it,” according to Michael Listner, founder of Space Law and Policy Solutions. General Laura Richardson, commander of the US Southern Command, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that “The [People’s Republic of China] has the capability to eschew international norms, advance its brand of authoritarianism, and amass power and influence at the expense of these [South American and Caribbean] democracies.” 

General Glen VanHerck, commander of the US Northern Command and Richardson also testified this week saying that China’s expansion includes increased work on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other forms of economic coercion. Recently China completed the largest embassy in the world in the Bahamas and over 80% of Mexico’s telecommunications is provided by Chinese companies, according to VanHerck. The CCP leadership is active throughout the world. Behind-the-scenes in the Middle East this week, China helped broker a significant deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reestablish diplomatic relations. After the announcement, China’s senior diplomat declared that the two countries were wise to do so. It comes one month after President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Beijing.

China’s appearing to facilitate the negotiations adds to Chinese prestige, according to John Alterman, in of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He argues that “The not-so-subtle message that China is sending is that while the United States is the preponderant miliary power in the Gulf, China is a powerful and rising diplomatic presence… and it contributes to a narrative of a shrinking US global presence.” Washington does not maintain diplomat relations with Tehran and was unable to participate. China, in contrast, represents about 30% of Iran’s total international trade, with much of it in the form of oil exports to the communist giant. The exclusion of Washington by Saudi Arabia indicates they are seeking to diversity their security arrangements.

“Globalization is a fact, not a policy,” according to Condoleeza Rice, director of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. But globalization is facing headwinds, she added. The strongest are coming from China where government leaders have failed to meet international expectations of liberalizing the country’s economy. When asked about China’s role in Africa, Rice said that its economic and political influence is beginning to wane in the region but that the United States needs to make sure it fills any gaps. “We ought to be right in the middle of that, going into that vacuum,” she argues. The question remaining is can Washington compete effectively and simultaneously in the current international economic climate and on the military front. 

The Jamestown Foundation pointed out this week that outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced that China would increase its defense budget by 7.2 percent in his remarks opening the annual National’s People’s Congress. Covell Meyskens, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, suggests that China is pushing hard to encourage the world to disengage with the United States. Writing in Foreign Policy, Meyskens argues that “… under Xi, China’s propaganda apparatus appears determined to tell “a good China story” that lauds how CCP rule, and especially Xi’s leadership, has generated a plethora of domestic accomplishments and raised China’s global clout. In recent years, Chinese state media has also worked hard to put to rest the idea that the PRC should take the United States as a model to emulate. Every day, Chinese media pumps out enormous volumes of content about why the United States is failing as a global leader.

Increasing Chinese aggression on the economic, diplomatic, and military fronts is a serious challenge to America’s global leadership role. Xi may see this as his last opportunity to alter the international order  in China’s favor before Beijing is faced with overwhelming demographic and other domestic economic challenges that could impede his goals. Washington needs to recognize the international challenge it faces from China and arrive at a better understanding of how to deal with the belligerent communist giant.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: China Defence Ministry

Humans can be highly observant and analytical creatures. We are equally adept at ignoring what is directly in front of us, despite the imminent danger it presents. The allure of China’s newly opened, and potentially large, market sent businessmen from around the world scurrying to Beijing to befriend CCP officials. Others sought development funds to modernize their country’s infrastructure. In recent decades the United States, both the public and private sectors, has been drawn to and blinded by China’s mystique and money. The US is not the only country fatally attracted to China. Europe’s critical supply chain today is deeply embedded in and dependent on imports from China that in 2021 topped $557.8 billion. Russia and the developing South also beg for BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) funds to keep their economies afloat, while China reaps rewards in outsized influence and newly acquired wealth derived from its predatory practices. Xi Jinping recognizes he has a limited window of opportunity obtain the resources his country needs to complete his vision of a modern Chinese-style world order. Now entering an unprecedented third term in office, Xi isn’t wasting time in extending China’s reach into Russia’s once forbidden Far eastern territories.

Xi Jinping recognizes that for China to fully modernize it must buy or seize control of energy and the other critical natural resources required to support advanced technologies. Although the Sino-Soviet split of the 1960’s is healed out of convenience to both communist states, the fulcrum point in the relationship has moved to favor Beijing. Xi is using it to his advantage. Although Russia is occupied with its war in Ukraine, Chinese and Far Eastern Russian officials met in early March, in the northeastern city of Harbin. They quietly agreed China would finance the building of a railway north and well into the Russian resource-rich Sakha Republic. This region dominates the Russian Far East, according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. He points out that it is “rather far from the Chinese border…[and] represents a potentially transformative event for the region, China, and the Russian Federation.” 

Unlike the Trans-Siberian line or other infrastructure just over the border in Russia, this project is unprecedented in its reach into the Russian interior.  Second, open-source intelligence appears to indicate that the deal was inked by Sakha and Chinese officials without involvement from Moscow. Last June 22, the Russian publication Vesma wrote that Putin did not consider the project a priority. Goble suggests this is another way of Moscow’s say it cost too much with resources devoted to the war in Ukraine. Third, concessions obtained by China in this deal will allow it to gain long-term access to critically-needed resources. Putin likes to talk about Russia’s “turn to the east.” What in the short-run will benefit Russia’s natural resources export market, may turn out in the long run to favor China. Historically, Sakha is already more closely linked to Beijing than Moscow. Goble argues that this raises the “specter in the minds of many Russians that China is becoming the paramount power in the region.”

And, he adds, “this could eventually be the case even if China does nothing to change the political borders between itself and the Russian Federation—a classic form of neo-colonialism that Moscow is accustomed to denouncing in others but often fails to see China is using that same approach within Russia’s current borders.” Economic warfare, in which China is the dominant player, is less costly for Xi than a kinetic military conflict. The territory in question once belonged to China. The people in the region speak Mandarin and are ethnically identical in look and tradition to the nearby Chinese population. 

The area is sparsely populated and China will likely need to bring in “guest workers.” It is not an easy route to build and will take years to complete over permafrost ground. China, however, already has experience building a 900-mile Tibetan railway system through permafrost that is more advanced that any found in the West. The rewards will be timber, coal, and other minerals, as well as influence well beyond the reaches of Sakha. Xi is following the ancient Chinese warrior Sun Tzu’s directive to climb higher to see farther. Russia, however, may be ignoring the close by danger if China becomes the de facto power in Russia’s Far East.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Pixabay

Japanese kamikaze pilots in World War II did immense damage to enemy forces in the Pacific. Carrying one ton of explosives in the nosecone of each plane, the Japanese Air Force sank 34 naval ships and damaged hundreds of others. They achieved their mission about 19% of the time. The cost was great as Japan lost about 2,800 skilled pilots and 1,387 aircraft. Kamikaze planes are still in use today in the war in Ukraine, however, now they are controlled remotely by pilots wielding a control stick far from the battlefield. Russian lives are not at stake.

Russian forces are employing Iranian kamikaze drones to destroy Ukraine’s physical infrastructure. The Kyiv Independent newspaper reported last fall that Russia is actively incorporating them into the battlefield. In mid-February, the publication Unian published a report saying that Putin was running low on stocks of Iranian-built drones. At the same time Russian-friendly states werevproviding alternative sources for Moscow. 

It appears anti-Western governments are resorting to a plan this year that includes building a joint Russian-Iranian drone factory inside Russia to supply the country with the needed equipment to ratchet up the pressure on the Ukrainian government and its air defense systems. Sine Ozkarasahin, of the Jamestown Foundation, notes that “Such a scenario would grant Russia easier access to a continuous stream of Iranian kamikaze drones….”

Worse yet, if the Russian-Iranian deal is cemented, a drone facility in the imminent neighborhood of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will have immense strategic implications. It would shorten the length of Russian supply lines and put armed drones next to NATO Member states who oppose Putin’s war. It would have far-reaching implications for the future security of NATO’s eastern flank and represent a new and elevated threat to Western Europe. 

Tehran is complicit in this operation. It will add to its global production network that already includes countries such as Tajikistan, Syria, and Venezuela. The facility, according to open source intelligence, is to be built east of Moscow in the town of Yelabuga, and produce about 6,000 Iranian drone annually. America military intelligence suggests that this could be a significant force multiplier for Putin in his upcoming spring offensive. Ozkarasahin says the plant will be much more sustainable than the frequent drone transfers in a highly dangerous and logistically challenging hot zone. He adds that the facility can “provide Russia with key strategic benefits, such as easy access to spare parts and maintenance support.”

The Yelabuga site, which is near the Kama River, appears part of a trend in Iranian military complexes in which some of Tehran’s most critical missile production facilities (including the ones in Parchin and Baniyas) are all located near a water supply, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Ozkarasahin suggests this could be indicative of a potential new spot for Iranian missile production of the Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 kamikaze drones already in use in Ukraine by Russian forces. 

Of additional concern is that the production line could include modified versions of these drones equipped with unmanned aerial vehicles capable of a higher air speed and longer range. Last month Eurasian Times reported that some intelligence sources are confirming the Iranians have already embarked on this journey, by modifying the traditional Shahed-131’s to include more destructive warheads. 

This represents a potential broader threat to NATO. Other states unfriendly to the West, including China and Armenia, are already providing Putin’s war machine with supplies sanctioned by the West. They circumvent sanctions by selling Russia semi-conductors and subcomponents of critical systems to Moscow, according to Eurasianet this week. If the Russian-Iranian axis continues growing NATO may be faced with yet another threat to its strategic advantage. If shot down NATO’s most sophisticated systems could provide Iran with newer technology and counter-drone advances that make a technological challenge to the Western alliance closer to an alarming reality. The word kamikaze originated in Japan over 740 years ago and was used to refer to the wrath of typhoons that beset the island nation and stopped Kublai Khan from conquering Japan. Iran’s drones could alter the balance of power in Europe and as a modern day “divine wind” threaten a vast area of Europe.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

Never before in American history has a President so thoroughly ignored national security.

From border controls and defense budgets to anti-espionage efforts and preventing threats from a foreign power to originate on U.S. soil, the Biden Administration has disregarded key measures necessary to keep the nation secure.

The White House has eliminated safeguards on the southern border. It has repealed existing programs to stop enemy spying. It proposed inadequate defense budgets. It has opened the door to China’s purchase of land near vital military installations.

Singularly, any one of these actions would be dangerous and short-sighted. Combined, they constitute a stunning abrogation of duty to protect America from very real, very significant, and rapidly growing threats.

The White House’s actions have been breathtakingly absurd.  One example: Gordon Chang, writing for Gatestone, reports that “The Biden administration just cleared a Chinese company to own 370 acres of land within 12 miles of Grand Forks Air Force Base in Grand Forks, North Dakota. As a result, China will be able to use a proposed $700 million corn milling plant on the site to spy on military communications and even disrupt them.

That inexplicable decision comes on the heels of other bizarre actions. The Biden Justice Department has scrapped the urgently needed “China Initiative,” a measure designed to respond to the massive spying performed by Beijing on American soil.  It was established to stop the theft of military secrets, as well as roadblock the billions of dollars lost by U.S. companies in intellectual property theft.  Desperate for an excuse for this strange decision, it was announced that targeting Chinese spies was, somehow, a civil rights violation of Chinese-Americans, a decision that itself casts aspersions on loyal Chinese-Americans.

Clear and immediate danger has resulted from the decision to ignore the massive illegal immigration across the southern border. In 2021, 71,000 deaths resulted from fentanyl, much of which came up through the unprotected border. 15,000 to 50,000 women and children are forced into sexual slavery in the United States every year, mostly placed into such condition by Mexican cartels up from the southern border. According to a Newsweek study, “Final fiscal year 2022 numbers show Border Patrol apprehended a whopping 98 watch-listed terrorists at the southern border, six times the record 15 caught there in 2021 (three were caught in 2020 and none in 2019). That’s also five times the number it took to carry out the 9/11 attacks that took America to war in overseas theaters for 20 years.”  Not only has the Biden White House failed in its border duties, it has aggressively lied about its actions and unfairly punished border patrol agents for merely doing their duty.  

It has moved against the state governments most directly affected, when they sought to address the hazard. American Military News notes that these anti-state government actions  come as  more than “500,00 illegal immigrantw crossed the US-Mexico border in just the first 74 days of the 2023 fiscal year.”

The neglect of danger extends to cyberspace, as well.  As overwhelming evidence mounts that TikToc is being used by Beijing to gather data on Americans for nefarious purposes, According to some members of the House Committee on Armed Services, there is a possibility that Washington may approve an agreement that would allow China to retain significant influence over TikTok and control of its core technology, most importantly its algorithm despite significant objections from national security agencies.

Looming over all of these issues is the growing danger from Russia and China, and the Biden Administration’s inadequate proposed defense budgets.  The Atlantic notes that “Russia has invaded a country on NATO’s borders, its leader has repeatedly invoked the specter of nuclear war, and its military is mercilessly bombing civilian targets. China, meanwhile, is ramping up its defense spending, has overtaken the United States in some important areas of defense technology, and just signed a treaty of ‘friendship’ with Russia. Elsewhere, North Korea is testing missiles that can reach the U.S., Iran continues to be a malign actor in the Middle East, and terrorist groups have not gone away. Yet in its latest budget request for defense, the Biden administration has sought to downplay the U.S. military’s role in national security, and the resources it has asked for are insufficient for even that reduced role.”

Photo: Warships from Chinese and Russian navies are pictured after a joint naval exercise, Joint Sea 2022, in the East China Sea on Dec. 27, 2022. Chinese and Russian navies concluded the seven-day joint naval exercise Tuesday in the East China Sea. (Photo by Sun Fei/Xinhua)

China has been allowed to gain massive influence throughout the United States, particularly in our economy, education, and politicians.

As February drew to a close, a new Congressional group, “The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party,” chaired by Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis) began operations.  It’s stated mission is to work on a bipartisan basis to build consensus on the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party and develop a plan of action to defend the nation.

It’s a tough task, considering how deeply entrenched the CCP has become.

Each new month brings new and disturbing revelations about how deeply Beijing has penetrated American institutions. The latest involves the odd case of Dominic Ng.

President Biden has appointed Mr. Ng to serve as the U.S. member on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Business Advisory Council in July of 2022. According to Congressman Lance Gooden (R-Texas), ““It is unfathomable that a man like Dominic Ng would ever be appointed to a government position given his extensive ties to CCP officials and intelligence front groups. Mr. Ng is compromised at best and a traitor at worst, but his donation of over $100,000 to President Biden’s re-election campaign has been rewarded with a position to represent U.S. business interests in Asia. The president should immediately rescind his appointment and the FBI should launch an investigation into whether Mr. Ng has passed sensitive information to Chinese officials.” the Daily Caller News Foundation confirmed Dominic Ng served as the executive director of the China Overseas Exchange Association and now serves as the executive director of the China Overseas Friendship Association. Both organizations are front groups for Chinese intelligence operations and members of the organizations are considered likely Chinese influence operatives.

The Chinese communist spy who compromised Congressman Eric Swalwell, (D-CA) Fang Fang, also “socialized, networked with Rep. Judy Chu and then-Rep. Mike Honda, campaigned for now-Rep. Rho Khanna, volunteered for Bill Harrison, the mayor of Fremont, California at the time and in some cases, developed romantic or sexual relationships with politicians to gain intelligence and send it back to her handlers, who were believed to be stationed in mainland China.” 

Political corruption is just one aspect of the problem. Samantha Aschieris reports that “Confucius Institutes, founded in 2004, are China-funded ‘cultural’ centers that operate on college campuses. In the past few years, these centers have come under increased scrutiny as operations of Chinese state influence. ‘For years, the Chinese Communist Party has been using Confucius Institutes as a Trojan horse to push their propaganda and revisionist history in American universities. Their goal is to control what we see, hear, and think about China,’ [said] Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn, who introduced related legislation called the Transparency for Confucius Institutes Act in 2021”  An estimated 500 K-12 schools in the U.S. have had Confucius Classrooms, according to a National Association of Scholars report, “After Confucius Institutes: China’s Enduring Influence on American Higher Education.” 

A Free Beacon analysis warns “In 2015, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, which serves as the Chinese Communist Party’s political advisory board, purchased Donald Trump’s alma mater, the New York Military Academy, for $16 million dollars. Conference member Mo Tianquan secured the purchase after a bidding war with another Chinese conglomerate. Two years later, a Chinese education conglomerate purchased the Florida Preparatory Academy as part of its plan to create “a global educational alliance system.” The organization partnered with a CCP-controlled regional government agency on the initiative. Both the New York Military Academy and Florida Preparatory Academy operate Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (JROTC) programs, which train future military officers.”

The problem extends beyond the United States.  As has been observed, China has managed to deflect blame for its COVID disaster through its financially-purchased influence at the United Nations. Radio Free Asia

China’s government has “penetrated” the United Nations, undercutting its oversight functions by stacking bodies like the U.N. Human Rights Council with its own people, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told a Senate hearing.

Illustration: Pixabay

One of President Biden’s first acts upon taking office was to eliminate the Keystone XL pipeline, an 875-mile project that would extend from the Canadian border at Morgan, Montana, to  Steele City, Nebraska.  

It was only the opening salvo of his Administration’s war on energy, which is the root cause not only of the increase in gasoline prices but also the rampant inflation that is wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy.

Biden has been open about his disdain for fossil fuels, despite the uncomfortable reality that alternative sources, for the foreseeable future, can only replace about 20% of energy needs. 

His views completely disregard the economic hardship to the American people, and the reality that alternative sources can only produce about 20% of energy needs.

One study reports that “While renewables continue to underperform in the generation of electricity, crude oil continues to be targeted for elimination along with coal and natural gas, even though oil is seldom used for generating electricity. Today, Biden supports allowing banks and investment giants to collude to reshape economies and energy infrastructure with their Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) divesting in fossil fuels. ESG is a very dangerous precedent as the American people never voted to give banks this sort of control over our country.”

A Cfact study has found that “The unintended consequences of attempting to rid America and the world of crude oil usage are being realized in supply shortages and soaring prices resulting from the elimination of products and fuels manufactured from crude oil that support: Asphalt for roughly 65 million miles of roads in the world, Tires for the 1.4 billion vehicles in the world, Fertilizers to feed the world on this increasingly resource-stretched and crowded earth, Medical supplies that are primarily made from oil derivatives Jets that comprise more than 50,000 for military, commercial, and private sector, Merchant ships that comprise more than 53,000 that move products throughout the world, Vehicles that are mostly made of plastics, and even renewables of wind turbines and solar panels that are made from oil derivatives.”

A Heartland analysis reveals that “Energy prices are skyrocketing under President Joe Biden’s radical energy and climate agenda. The latest official government data show large year-over-year price hikes for all forms of energy. During the past year, overall electricity prices rose 8 percent, industrial energy prices increased by 15 percent, home heating oil prices rose 43 percent, conventional oil prices surged by 60 percent, natural gas prices increased by 61 percent, and gasoline prices rose nearly $1 per gallon. The average U.S. household in 2021 spent an extra $600 in higher gasoline costs and $70 in higher electricity costs. Further, households that use natural gas spent an extra $300, on average, and those using home heating oil paid $1,000 more. Cumulatively, the average American household paid about $1,000 in higher energy costs in 2021 compared to 2020. It’s also important to note that these higher energy prices have been baked into the costs for all goods and services bought and sold in the economy, contributing to across-the-board inflation.”

There is also the uncomfortable reality that alternatives such as wind and solar are not good for the environment.

Wind power is dangerous to wildlife, noisy, expensive and unreliable. Simply put, sometimes the wind just doesn’t blow. Solar panels destroy vast tracks of land.

A Scientific American analysis outlined the environmental problems of solar power. “the ecological footprint of solar power development could grow to more than 27,500 square miles—roughly the land area of South Carolina—if the U.S. were to adopt a more ambitious climate goal. When thousands of solar panels are built in undeveloped natural areas, the panels crowd out wildlife and destroy their habitat.”

There appears to be no logical reason for Biden’s energy policies, leading to an uncomfortable question, recently raised by the Heritage Foundation. “With reports that classified documents were found at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement at the University of Pennsylvania, questions arise about the potential connection between the university’s receipt of $54 million in Chinese donations and President Joe Biden’s promotion of energy policies that are strengthening China’s economy at the expense of our own. Under Biden’s anti-fossil fuel energy policies, Americans have been left with higher costs and a weaker economy while China has gained a larger market for its “green energy” wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries. Could the money and the policies be related? The New York Post reported that tens of millions in donations to the University of Pennsylvania came from Chinese donors after the Penn Biden Center was first announced in 2017.”

Illustration: Pixabay

Indonesia’s growing economic power is often understated in discussions about the future of Asia. Yet by 2045, it is likely to become the world’s fourth largest economy. It already is the world’s largest Muslim-majority state. President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, points out that his cabinet not only estimates that the economy will continue growing, but that his country’s population will also expand from its current 273 million to reach 309 million within the next two decades. In comparison, demographers at the Global Coalition on Aging predict China’s population will dramatically age during the same period, with those over age 50 increasing by 250 million as its working-age population simultaneously shrinks. The Coalition on Aging concludes that this presages the end of China’s era of “heroic economic growth.” Some analysts suggest this is also a strong indicator that Indonesia could become an emerging superpower within the next 25 years. 

Today Indonesia is a middle-income nation and a member of the G20. In 2022 it logged its strongest  economic record in the last nine years, growing by 5.31%, and supported by a record-high number of exports. Last November the country’s Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs announced that Indonesia is targeted to become a developed country by 2043. “While Beijing has pulled back its overseas BRI lending—and Xi has exhibited some notable reticence toward hosting a third Belt and Road Forum—Indonesia challenges the broader narrative that the BRI is somehow fading away,” according to William Yuen Yee of the Jamestown Foundation. 

China has invested heavily in the country and intends for Indonesia to serve as an economic cornerstone for its BRI. The CCP leadership touts its megaprojects in Indonesia as a win-win for both countries. That leaves Jakarta caught precariously between leaning on China and standing with the democratic West. The government in Jakarta needs the development funds, although the Indonesian population is not favorable toward China’s involvement in the country.

Understanding Indonesia’s experience with the BRI, says Yee, requires a closer examination of the history behind infrastructure cooperation, major projects beyond the oft-discussed Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway and their impacts on the Indonesian public, and the extent of economic engagement between Jakarta and Beijing. Indonesia is the third-largest recipient of Chinese investments at about $560 million, behind only Cambodia and Pakistan. Jokowi created the Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) in 2014. It is a strategy to leverage Indonesia’s strategic location in the Indo-Pacific and status as the world’s largest archipelagic state in order to prioritize maritime connectivity and infrastructure development, says Yee. Both Xi’s BRI and Jokowi’s GMF highlight infrastructure development. Since 2008, China has used the BRI in Indonesia as a type of “infrastructure diplomacy” to strengthen cooperation and the development of economic corridors. In 2019 the two governments reaffirmed in writing that there is a “strategic alignment” between the BRI and Indonesia’s GMF. Last year marked ten consecutive years of Beijing being Indonesia’s largest trading partner.

Jakarta needs Beijing to continue on its path to becoming a developed nation, despite tense people-to-people relations and extensive corruption. Yee points out that nine of Indonesia’s BRI projects, worth a total of $5.2 billion, involve scandals, controversies, or alleged violations. Earlier this year escalating racial tensions among employees at a nickel smelter in Morowali turned deadly, causing the deaths of one Chinese and one Indonesian worker, with many more injuried. The joint project enabled Indonesia to become the world’s second-largest, stainless-steel producer, churning out 3 million tons each year. It is ironic that the project also transformed the nation into a primary rival for domestic-made products in China. Last summer, ten years after Xi launched the Maritime Silk Road in Indonesia, Jakarta’s commitment to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative is steadfast, suggests Yee. Jusuf Wanandi, a Sino-Indonesian politician who co-founded the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank noted last year that “…Indonesia-China cooperation is not only beneficial to Indonesians and Chinese, but also to all the peoples of East Asia.”  

Bilateral relations have continued expanding since Chinese leader Xi Jinping came to power in 2013. Although Indonesia is not permanently locked in a Chinese “debt trap,” Jakarta’s debt is rising. It is, in part, a consequence of Jikowi’s vision for large infrastructure projects to help Indonesia to emerge as the world’s fourth or fifth largest economy in the coming decades. What is uncertain is the destabilizing impact of Indonesians who view themselves as distinct from China, although racially similar. They may not tolerate Beijing’s growing influence in the country as Indonesia’s economy  matures and China faces unsurmountable demographic challenges at home.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Indonesia National Emblem (Pixabay)

The US Army is hedging its bet that China won’t invade Taiwan, by laying out a detailed, multi-pronged strategy for deterring a future war in the Pacific. It may, however, be too little and too late. DOD’s budget cuts under the Biden Administration do not bode well for advances in American preparedness for war in the numerous flashpoints existing in today’s world. During a talk on China this week at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), US Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth told the gathering “… obviously [we] have to prepare, to be prepared to fight and win that war.” She then added a mixed message signaling that she personally was “not of the view that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan is imminent.” Officials in Beijing analyzing her words might take this message to imply the US is not concerned about the threat, or that such an act would be below the threshold requiring a response from Washington. Translated into Chinese the word imminent can mean “working towards something.” It doesn’t have the same sense of urgency or intensity as the English word.  

Secretary Wormuth’s use of “imminent” is significant. By Western definition the concept of an imminent threat is traditionally understood in a temporal sense to mean that a state is faced with a physical danger that is both real and could occur within an immediate time frame. Under those conditions a state, or a partner of a threatened state, understands the threat to be at the center of the timeline extending into both the past and near future. 

One issue related to the Chinese threat toward Taiwan is that the United States and China have very different concepts of linear time. The US measures time in very short periods or “events,” while Chinese leaders talk in terms of decades and generations. If the CCP leadership believes Secretary Wormuth’s use of the word suggests the US is not seriously concerned about Beijing “working towards” a war with Taiwan, it may alter the timing of the CCP’s military and political policy toward Taipei.

The nexus of two opposing great powers, both commanding advanced weaponry, means that every single word spoken by leaders gets digested and analyzed in both capitals so that analysts can brief their leadership on the threat environment. What serves as a calming domestic political statement spoken in Washington, can act as a military permission slip in Beijing. If the United States puts weapons systems in place in Asia but the leadership in Washington talks about the lack of an imminent threat, Beijing will consider three possible conclusions about American political willpower. First, it could conclude the United States is serious about defending Taiwan because it is moving to reinforce the US Pacific command. Second, the words spoken by American military and political leaders are simply political theater and can be ignored. The third consideration is the most dangerous. Beijing could misinterpret the words to mean that Washington doesn’t see a serious near-term threat in the Pacific. This interpretation provides China more leeway in how it carries out its Taiwan policy and may embolden Xi Jinping to act.  

If Xi concludes Washington doesn’t see the danger and will not choose to become involved despite military sales and training exchanges with Taiwan, the Chinese leader may choose to force Taiwan’s hand at the most convenient time for Beijing. It may not be in the form of kinetic warfare as China’s influence operations in Taiwan are extensive, but it could tilt toward a calculated action to force Taiwan under Beijing’s control.

Many military and political analysts in Washington who understand the nuances of the Chinese language and the country’s political culture suggest that their briefings are falling on deaf ears inside the Biden Administration. They argue that the US leadership must improve its understanding of how China perceives the world and responds to comments, like those of Secretary Wormuth. 

It is not the first time a few words made a mark in US-China relations. When President Carter recognized mainland China as the legitimate government of the country and formally opened relations, the US renamed its Embassy on Taiwan the American Institute in Taiwan. Essentially it performs the same tasks as any US embassy. The word change allowed Beijing to save face.

In April 2001, a US Navy EP-3A ARIES reconnaissance aircraft collided with a Chinese jet midair. The Chinese pilot was attempting to intimidate the American plane flying in international airspace 70 miles off China’s coastline. The Chinese pilot died when his plane fell into the ocean after hitting the US aircraft. The US plane was damaged and forced to make an emergency landing on China’s Hainan Island. The plane and its 24 crew members were detained. For 11 days the two countries worked to develop the “Letter of the Two Sorries.” The United States in English stated that the country was “very sorry” for the death of the Chinese pilot. In English the wording does not insinuate culpability. For its domestic audience, Beijing translated the sentiment to mean the US took responsibility and made a formal apology. Words matter.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay