Author: Daria Novak

Despite the extensive media coverage of Putin’s every statement, there are events occurring in the world outside of the potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Some of those are taking place in India where there are mounting questions over the Modi government’s suspected use of spyware on its own citizenry and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. In 2017 Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed off on the purchase of Pegasus spyware designed by the Israeli cyber-arms firm, NCO Group. Since that time there have been numerous allegations of the Indian government using the Pegasus spyware to read text messages, track calls, collect passwords, track locations, and listen in to conversations using the target’s own cell phone microphone and camera, as well as harvesting the information from downloaded apps.

This week there are reports according to Michael Kugelman, writing in Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief, that Indian media have revealed that “two cybersecurity experts told the [Indian Supreme Court appointed] committee there are “strong indicators” that the allegations are true. Although denied by the government, both supporters and their opponents see this as hurting India. The former argue that the accusations mark the latest attempt to malign India. Opponents say it is an example of the government cracking down on civil liberties.

Elsewhere in India, the country remains embroiled in an ongoing border conflict in the Ladakh region of the Himalayan Mountains near China. On Wednesday of this week the two nuclear-armed countries held their 14^th round of discussions since June 2020. Although Indian officials characterized the talks as “constructive” there was no movement on either side. At immediate issue is the Hot Springs area where troops are dug in for the winter months. Overall, there are several thousand troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which extends for nearly 2,200 miles and is not demarcated. The 24-month long Ladakh geopolitical crisis reflects domestic concerns in both nation-states with neither government willing to accept a compromise solution. During this crisis reports came out accusing Chinese soldiers of beating their Indian counterparts with nail-studded rods and with some soldiers thrown to their death in freezing river water. Others Indian soldiers died from asphyxiation and hyperthermia. Despite the crisis last year bilateral trade with China topped $100 billion. But all is not well in the region.

Both countries have begun building permanent infrastructure along the Sino-Indian border indicating that this dispute is not the typical short border clash between the two but has the potential for a more serious conflict. The new garrison and airstrips suggest that the conflict may escalate into a more extensive kinetic warfare in the future. A recent South China Morning Post article pointed out that China recently deployed a long-range rocket launcher near the border. Kyle Gardner, an Sino-Indian border expert, warns that this latest development points to a “sustained, broader militarization of the LAC” and highlights the heightened risks of a small-scale conflict. At question is whether China and India’s long-standing agreement on the non-use of firearms may soon be discarded. 

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India has been highly critical of China’s handling of the Covid pandemic while China views India’s security ties and involvement with the US in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as threatening to the communist giant. On Friday President Biden announced its Indo-Pacific strategy will remain much the same as in previous administrations. Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, points out that “The US will continue to muddle along in the region. This plan lacks specificity, lacks detail, and there are major gaps in terms of strengthening America’s geoeconomic position in Asia.” While the world watches and waits to see what aggressive moves Putin makes toward the Ukraine, other large and small states continue to face their own challenges. Jacqueline Feldscher, writing in Defense One, says that “In its first year, the Biden administration consistently talked about the importance of diplomacy and partnerships, and its Indo-Pacific strategy is no different. The strategy mentions  the need to strengthen the Quad, as well as increase cooperation with Japan and South Korea, boost collaboration with India, and expand the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.” So far, the Biden Administration has not made much progress in this area, leaving India and other states in the region to question whether, like Ukraine, they can bet on counting on the United States in a crisis.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: Pixabay

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin held a summit meeting on February 4th, the opening day of the Beijing Olympics, to formally cement a “no limits” partnership between China and Russia. The manifesto that emerged confirms to the world that each country will back the other’s position on issues from Ukraine and Taiwan to NATO enlargement in Eastern Europe. Xi and Putin also vowed to expand their collaboration against the West. In recent years the two leaders have grown closer and expanded the breadth of their economic ties, political policies, and military integration. This week Xi called Putin one of his “closest friends and a great colleague.” There no longer any “forbidden areas” in Russia-China cooperation, according to the two leaders. From Xi’s perspective the relationship is superior to that of the Cold War era as both states have agreed to collaborate on control of the Internet, space, climate change, and artificial intelligence. For Putin, the summit may have secured China’s support of a Ukrainian invasion despite recent tough talk from Washington.

China has a long history of pronouncements about cooperation and strategic partnerships. According to Tony Monroe of Reuters, this most recent meeting is the most detailed and assertive to date. Xi’s goal now publicly stated is to build a new international order based on China’s concept of human rights and democratic values. China doesn’t have many close friends in the international community outside of Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, and a few other minor states. Xi needs Russia at the moment, if only to distract the world from Chinese actions. What is even better for Xi is that the Sino-Russian power roles are reversed from that of the earlier Cold War period, with China the more powerful and rising state today. Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, pointed out this week that “If Russia further invades Ukraine and China looks the other way, it suggests that China is willing to tolerate or tacitly support Russia’s efforts to coerce Ukraine, even when they embarrass Beijing, harm European security and risk global peace and economic stability.” Xi may give support over Ukraine but will be certain to maintain balance in the bilateral relationship. The question is what did, or will, Xi ask from Putin in return.

The Beijing Olympics was a missed opportunity for President Xi to help resolve the tensions in Europe. He could have called on Russia to back down from threatening an invasion of Ukraine. Instead, the Chinese leader pledged mutual protection of their core interests – an apparent reference to Russia – Ukraine and China – Taiwan challenges. Perhaps, the Chinese leader exacted a promise of support from Putin if China made moves on Taiwan? Xi deliberately chose to use the Olympic venue to heavily criticize the United States’ resistance to China’s increasing regional power and blasted American moves to shore up its ties in the Indo-Pacific region.

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Despite the intense level of communist rhetoric that typically is discounted in the West, the weight and timing of these statements is significant and directed at an international democratic audience. China is forging stronger and more networked ties with Russia’s military, political and economic leaders in Russia and openly announcing it to the world. Beijing is no longer following their “hide and bide” time policy until they are stronger. The growing geopolitical bilateral alignment remains a relationship based on convenience but, it also is one of increasing concern to democratic nations as they become more intertwined and stiffen their resolve to dismantle the democratic West. Political analysts in Washington are pointing out that China may be using Russia to plug the final holes in its development strategy and that Xi is not unhappy that Putin is high-stakes gambling on the West faltering over its policy toward Ukraine. Fifty years ago this month President Nixon flew to China in what was to become known as the “week that changed the world.” It now appears we may be approaching a new week that could again spark a major change in the rules-based international community and the global balance of power.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Constructivism is a term bantered about the ivory towers of American universities when political scientists want to attribute the behavior of political elites to something beyond pure power politics. Lately think tank types in Washington are gathering in force to “construct” these narratives and argue about how much history, language, and culture are impacting Vladimir Putin’s decision making. As the Russian president potentially gets ready to invade Ukraine with 100,000 troops stationed along the border, academic pundits are patching together information and sharing juicy details of what they presume to know is inside the Russian president’s mind. 

They appear on talk shows talking as if they possess a crystal ball of politics that can predict Putin’s next move. Yet for every analyst arguing Putin is committed to war in Ukraine, another claims Russia’s actions simply are a new ploy to gain attention and concessions from the West. The reality is the West democracies really don’t know. It could end in a diplomatic negotiation or nuclear war. We must stop debating the “if” and plan for a worst-case scenario in the coming weeks. To do less is irresponsible and to risk a regional or even global conflagration among nations possessing nuclear weapons should there be an accidental kinetic encounter among the involved parties. 

The spark that set off World War I was a bullet that assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. Although there were other underlying causes that led to the conflict, a single bullet fired at blank point range led to the collapse of a fragile peace in Europe and one of the bloodiest periods in the history of modern warfare. Five years later to the day Germany and the Allied Powers signed the Treaty of Versailles after 17 million died. Today Russia has not only “bullets” but an estimated 3,000-6,000 intra-theater nuclear weapons with a 650-mile range. The United States has no similar arsenal of low yield, short-range battlefield nuclear weapons. Some of those ivory tower pundits in Washington toady are suggesting the threshold Russia for using these weapons in battle conditions may be much lower than for the ICBM’s in the US arsenal. 

Although often referred to as a deterrent so powerful that it doesn’t get used, President Putin if we are to believe him, has publicly stated his willingness to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield. What happens if a “modern bullet” in the form of a smaller battlefield-size nuclear weapon is deployed near Ukraine? Belarus has empty nuclear silos well-maintained and waiting, and its president has offered them to Putin. James Ragland, a  bioenvironmental engineer and a 15-year veteran of the United States Air Force who serves on the faculty of the Defense Nuclear Weapons School points out that “Exercises such as GROM-2019 incorporated the use of both Russian strategic and battlefield nuclear weapons with dual-use delivery platforms.” 

Last year Russia’s Zapad 2021 exercise employed strategic and battlefield nuclear weapons and over 200,000 integrated Russian and Belarusian forces conducting a simulated attack against NATO. The best strategic negotiator is one who spends about 2/3 of his time planning before he conducts “war by other means” across a negotiating table. The US and the West needs to be better prepared. What we do know about Putin is that he is a brilliant strategist who is ruthless and a high-risk taker. 

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Not far from Ukraine are a group of Baltic states that are less mentioned as potential targets but also important to Putin. The Baltic fleet of the Russian Navy needs access to the Atlantic and friendly relations with countries like NATO member Estonia are key to maintaining it. If the United States is busy moving east to expel Russian forces from Ukraine Putin could decide to move against NATO’s Baltic Member states. Close by is Kaliningrad, Russia, home to the country’s interceptor aircraft, heavy armor and where Putin’s battlefield nuclear weapons are based. Putin may not be able to match NATO’s conventional posture, but he can exploit Russia’s battlefield nuclear capabilities.  

What is perhaps most disturbing is the result of these small nuclear weapons. Putin could deliver what is known as a “clean” detonation. According to arms control experts, if there was a 10-kiloton detonation at a height of burst at 587.6 feet above ground level, the ensuing fireball would not reach the ground. NATO troops would only be required to maneuver one thousand yards to safely move around an irradiated ground zero one day after detonation. An unprotected soldier would receive less than 50% of the radiation (.41 rems) that one gets from a CT scan. If set off in a rural area in front of troops the radiation would dissipate within a radius of less than one thousand yards in less than a minute. The same with the pressure from the blast. Although unlikely to lead to an all-out nuclear conflict, the threshold for a limited nuclear event is plausible in today’s global environment. Putin is playing a dangerous game where the first mistake could be checkmate.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Photo: Russian Defence Ministry

America’s justice system is under full-fledged attack from multiple quarters.

The practice of engaging in riots, demonstrations, media pressure and the like in an attempt to influence the outcome of actions before a court has become commonplace.  It is, in its essence, a return to the medieval practice by trial by ordeal.  Either one has a judicial system, with explicit laws, rules and practices to determine the outcome, or one has anarchy.

Over the past several years, controversial issues before various courts have been the focus of public disorder, often before all the facts are known.  News media have essentially sparked much of this by inadequate and rash reporting.

The most infamous example involved the “Hands up, Don’t Shoot” incident that took place in Ferguson, Mo. in 2014, in which white police Officer Darren Wilson shot and killed 18-year-old African-American Michael Brown. An exhaustive investigation by the Obama Justice Department revealed that Brown did not surrender, and that the shooting was justified. The investigation revealed “Not only do eyewitnesses and physical evidence corroborate Wilson’s account, but there is no credible evidence to disprove Wilson’s perception that Brown posed a threat to Wilson as Brown advanced toward him. … It was not unreasonable for Wilson to fire on Brown until he stopped moving forward.”

Despite that, “Hands up, don’t shoot” has become a rallying cry for those who would substitute a mob mentality for the practice of justice through deliberate and fair court proceedings.

The media’s role cannot be ignored. When news outlets insult the intelligent of their audience when they claim that burning buildings, looting stores, invading police precincts, attacking courthouses, declaring “autonomous zones” and beating up passersby are acts of “peaceful protest,” they give cover to the criminals that perpetuate these vicious deeds, and encourage more of the same.

That is only one theater of attack.

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Political action committees (pacs) funded by Soros spent millions in what normally would be considered lackluster district attorney races. A Soros pac gave almost $1 million to an obscure Texas DA primary candidate, the leftist Joe Gonzalez.  As a result, he won his race. Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick criticized Soros’ involvement in the race, noting “He’s trying to change the fabric of this country.” 

Individuals are free to contribute to whom they wish, but when there is a coordinated effort to construct an environment in which laws are not enforced by District Attorneys due to the political whims of their mega-contributors, attention must be paid.

The refusal to enforce laws, and the implementation of irrational concepts such as low or no bail policies have had a devastating impact. 

Providing a career criminal with a history of violent offenses with an easy way to return to the community after committing his latest assault on innocent people isn’t a political statement.  It is an offense on common decency and public safety.

The results are obvious. Crime rates have soared. Stores are closing throughout the nation. Affected Neighborhoods are becoming retail wastelands. This didn’t happen by chance.  It is the clear and direct result of a progressive takeover of the criminal justice system by extremist activists in local legislatures, aided and abetted by district attorneys whose campaigns were specifically funded by hyper-wealthy progressive billionaires who seek to fundamentally alter the American system of laws.

Defiance of the law doesn’t just exist on the local level. When an American President, whose specific duty it is to enforce the law refuses to perform his Constitutional duty, that sets the tone for lawbreakers throughout the nation.  The U.S. has laws about how the nations borders may be crossed. Mr. Biden has wantonly refused to abide by those measures.  Like activist D.A.s and rioters, he displays contempt for the law.

Photo: Pixabay

There is a stunning gap between whom, and what, the majority of Americans perceive as a threat and enemy, and what the Progressive-dominated Democratic Party and its media allies believe.

Globally, Logic suggests that the Chinese, with their meteoric increase in both conventional and nuclear arms and the irresponsible spread of COVID, Russia’s largest on the planet atomic weaponry, as well as the international adventurism of both nations, and the Taliban’s looming access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal should be at the top of international concerns, accompanied by both Moscow and Beijing’s espionage within the U.S. Domestically, the extraordinary increase in crime and the disintegration of the southern border are existential threats.

But those obvious concerns clearly are nowhere near the top of the list for Progressives.

 Biden’s proposed defense budget cut the Pentagon’s spending power after accounting for inflation. Even after revelations about Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Ca.) relationship with a Chinese spy he remains on the House Intelligence Committee. Biden continues to ignore, (and indeed, even facilitates) the massive, unchecked entry into the U.S. by illegal immigrants, including some affiliated with vicious drug cartels and infected with COVID.

The Department of Justice, the FBI, and the IRS appear to be more interested in partisan politics than the vital duties they should rightfully engage in.  It has become undeniably clear that the FBI was used by the Clinton campaign to harass Hillary’s 2016 presidential campaign opponent, and to weaken the subsequent administration of the winner of that contest. It unblushingly is abused by Attorney General Merrick Garland to concentrate on investigating parents who are angered that their children are subjected to an educational system that replaces learning with propaganda, and moms and dads who object to the sexualization of curriculum and instances of rape on school property.

The media barely reports on looming military threats. Reuters did report that Russian and Chinese warships held their first joint patrols in the western Pacific Ocean, but the story received little air time. The same can be said for the startling news about Moscow’s warplanes repeated incursions close to Alaskan airspace, or China’s rapid-paced moves to become the dominant military power in orbit. The disturbing news that Beijing has taken control of a former U.S. airbase on the island of Kiribati, just 1,800 miles from Pearl Harbor, has been met with media and Progressive yawns. The list goes on and on.

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The Left firmly believes in the Pogo quote, that “We have met the enemy and he is us.” New York City is crippled with increasing crime, but that town’s legislature moved quickly…to move a statue of Thomas Jefferson from its chambers. The perception of American heroes as enemies is reflected in support for the ludicrously inaccurate 1619 curriculum.  

Chicago, where the threat of dying from violence exceeds that endured by combat soldiers in some theaters of war, Mayor Lori Lightfoot moved to suspend cops who didn’t get vaccinated.

NYC counterpart Bill de Blasio, similar to his fellow progressives,  perceives the business community not as an asset but as an enemy to be milked for all that can be obtained. In that, he follows the example of authoritarian socialist regimes in Venezuela, Cuba, and elsewhere.  Indeed, the mayor has been known to quote Marxists in public addresses.

  As mayors and governors reel from the influx of illegal aliens launched into the U.S. by sex traffickers and drug cartels, Democrats in Congress, Notes the Washington Free Beacon, moved to cut the budget for Customs and Border Protection by half a billion dollars. They seek to forbid Homeland Security Investigations from enforcing immigration laws.

Ignoring real enemies and very imminent threats from abroad, while turning Americans against each other based on race, class, age or gender is a dangerous move by the Left. It is leaving real scars on America, recklessly and needlessly endangering the nation’s future.

Illustration: Pixabay

Anger over the elitist goals of the Biden Administration, Democrat politicians in Congress, and those in city halls is rapidly growing.

 It is not hard to understand why the voters are unhappy. Strange decisions and policies that are bizarre and costly, in terms of both dollars and safety, are being made at a rapid pace.

In just the past month, it was revealed that the White House chose to delay a long-scheduled hypersonic missile test to satisfy Vladimir Putin, who has boasted of his own hypersonic weapons. It wasn’t a singular example. Despite massive arms advances by Russia, China, and North Korea, Biden has been reluctant to adequately fund the Pentagon. U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), Lead Republican of the House Armed Services Committee, warned that “It is time for President Biden to prioritize U.S. military modernization over attempts to cozy-up to Putin and Xi. Russia and China have their foot on the gas when it comes to developing and deploying advanced nuclear-capable hypersonic systems, while this administration looks for any excuse to delay or cancel U.S. systems and tests.”

The same week that this occurred, the Administration floated the concept of providing $450,000 payouts to each illegal who had crossed the border and had been separated from accompanying minors, a cautionary move against the possibility that children were being trafficked for sex. A prominent conservative leader, Gerard Kassar, stated “Giving $450,000 in U.S. tax dollars to unlawful immigrants who crossed the Mexican border into the U.S. with children illegally is madness. Millions of Americans are struggling to get by under President Biden’s tanking economy, and his priority is making unlawful immigrants rich using their money?  If Mr. Biden and the Democrats do this, how many more unlawful immigrants will cross into the U.S. with children in tow? Can anybody count that high?”

While Biden seems eager to empty America’s treasury to assist illegals, it seeks to make it harder for ill veterans to utilize their benefits. American Military News reports that there found that there are “…roughly 520,000 pending VA claims for disability compensation and benefits, 191,000 are considered to be backlogged (defined as older than 125 days)…To help navigate that hurdle, private consulting agents who work on a contingency basis have become an effective private sector solution to this lack of this assistance for veterans.” The Biden White House is not pleased that veterans have employed a way to get the care they are entitled to. The Administration budget carries a provision that outlaws the use of these facilitators.

The wide gap between Democrats and the citizenry is not restricted to National Security, illegal immigration, or a lack of appreciation of the sacrifice made by veterans.

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Governors and mayors of “Blue” states have sided with leftist educational groups and radical unions over the good of students and the rights of parents. The most notable example of this occurred during the gubernatorial campaign of Virginia’s Terry McAuliffe, who in an unguarded moment exclaimed that parents had no say in what their offspring were being taught.

McAuliffe’s candor wasn’t the worst of it. Attorney General Merrick Garland instructed the FBI to go after moms and dads who protested against the misdeeds and negligence of school officials that endangered students, and the politicization of public school curriculum.

Many Democrat leaders in City Halls have sought to defund the police, despite a rising tide of crime directly caused by their progressive policies such as bail reform, handcuffing the ability of law enforcement to do its job, and the policy of providing “sanctuary” to illegal aliens who have committed crimes.

The citizenry will have the opportunity to voice their opinion on these policies in 2022.

Illustration: Pixabay

Belarusians Restricted

The Department of State is imposing visa restrictions on Belarusian nationals under the “Khashoggi Ban,” a tool the Administration announced last year to counter transnational repression.  Today’s actions target multiple Belarusian nationals for their involvement in serious, extraterritorial counter-dissident activity.  The United States condemns all such activity, including the attempt to forcibly repatriate Belarusian Olympian Krystsina Tsimanouskaya during the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games last year.

The United States applauds the Belarusian Sport Solidarity Foundation’s efforts to support and protect the human rights of athletes amid the Lukashenka regime’s violent crackdown and ongoing repression of Belarusians inside and outside the country.  We stand in solidarity with Ms. Tsimanouskaya and all others who have experienced the regime’s attempts to silence criticism.

This action is part of a comprehensive effort to prevent and respond to acts of transnational repression by any government targeting journalists, activists, and dissidents for abuse, bringing together diplomatic, law enforcement, and intelligence tools to deter repressive governments and protect targeted individuals and groups, including within the United States. The Khashoggi Ban, a global visa restriction policy pursuant to Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, is one important tool in this effort.

The United States reaffirms its support for the people of Belarus and once again calls on the Lukashenka regime to end its crackdown on members of civil society, independent media, the political opposition, athletes, students, legal professionals, and other Belarusians; to immediately release all political prisoners; to engage in sincere facilitated dialogue with the democratic opposition and civil society; to fulfill its international human rights obligations; to stop its coercion of vulnerable people and its retaliatory action against governments and groups that assist them; and to hold free and fair elections under international observation.  We will continue working with the international community to hold accountable those responsible for repression and human rights violations and abuses in Belarus.

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ISIS Leader Eliminated

A military operation carried out by U.S. forces last night in northwest Syria has resulted in the death of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the leader of ISIS – a significant victory in the global fight to disrupt and dismantle ISIS.

This successful operation is a credit to our brave service members and national security professionals, who undertook this mission at President Biden’s direction after months of careful planning. Throughout that process, the United States took extraordinary care to protect innocent lives and prevent noncombatant casualties. ISIS, however, once again revealed its disregard for human life, including that of women and children, when al-Qurayshi choose to detonate a suicide bomb, killing his own family.

Al-Qurayshi, also known as Hajji Abdallah, took over ISIS in October 2019 after years of serving as a senior leader in the terrorist organization. He was known for his brutal enforcement of ISIS’s vicious ideology and was a driving force behind ISIS’s violent campaigns to subjugate communities and oppress perceived enemies, including the Yazidis, a religious minority in Iraq. He coordinated the group’s global terror operations during a period in which ISIS expanded its geographic presence and attacks in Africa.

This operation was part of a larger mission by the members of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS to deny ISIS’s territorial control in Iraq and Syria, counter ISIS’s messaging and financing, and stabilize areas that have been liberated from ISIS to prevent the group from resurging. Al-Qurayshi’s death strikes a significant blow against ISIS. Now the United States and our partners in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS will continue the effort. Our goal is the enduring defeat of ISIS and that fight continues.

Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States, delivered a blunt message on Taiwan Thursday  proclaiming: “If, …the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States…keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States…in the military conflict.” Qin did not use the word “potential” when referring to military conflict. China has laid down the gauntlet. Will anyone pick it up? How the US and other free nations respond to Chinese aggression in the coming years will determine if the world is drawn into a major conflagration among nuclear powers. The rhetoric is intensifying lately as fast as China is deploying new offensive weapons.

Power politics is by far the prevailing paradigm that explains how the world operates. While some nation-states, especially the democratic West, prefer to use international institutions and diplomacy as the primary means to settle differences, it often is not possible when belligerent authoritarian leaders such as Chinese President Xi Jinping threaten or conduct warfare against other countries. Xi and the CCP leadership do not appear interested in a serious dialogue to calm the security environment in Asia. Some analysts in Washington now believe the US is much closer to a war with China than it is to a conflict with Russia. All three nations possess nuclear weapons. It could end very badly in either case.  

One of the main characteristics of the international system is that no country can fully know or trust the intentions of another nation-state. Treaties can be broken and verbal assurances by national leaders  retracted or ignored. Without trust and understanding there is little space left to prevent a new arms race from engulfing the major powers. This past week information out of China confirmed that it was able to use a mechanical arm on one of its new satellites to grab one of its “dead” devices and move it into another orbit several hundred miles away. American satellites tend to be geostationary and difficult to move, in other words, “sitting ducks.” In response to the new Chinese capability, the Pentagon is speeding up its space warfare program which was slated to have a similar satellite killing capability by 2025.

National security is critical to all countries and the United States is no different. We must be prepared to defend our country and support our allies. At the same time Washington also needs to improve its understanding of the “prime directive” driving others like China who oppose our way of life, just as they need to better understand us. Without war by other means, AKA talks across the negotiating table, the only space left for conflict is on the battlefield. Examining the situation today reminded me of an event I experienced in the fall of 1985 that drove home the point of how critical it is to understand “the other” and to capably predict events that will trigger foreign elite behaviors.

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Not long after the movie Amadeus came out, I served on the White House international advance team for trade talks in Beijing, China. As is customary, senior officials on both sides got together for the requisite social event in the Chinese capital. Selected high-ranked, Chinese diplomats and their American counterparts met at a theater for a showing of Amadeus. What struck me sitting among these leaders was how the entire group of Chinese officials in the audience were frozen in their seats with their eyes intently fixed on the screen during the entire movie. No one, literally, no one moved. When it was over the lights came on. Looking around I noticed the Chinese diplomats remained seated and were silently crying and wiping their eyes. Amadeus greatly impacted each of them. After discreetly inquiring, one Chinese official told me he didn’t know such beautiful music could exist in the capitalist West. He had never heard classical music in his life. He also disclosed that China did not, and would not be allowed, to produce this type of a creative show. By 1985 China had been open to the West for about six years or so. Yet even Beijing’s top-ranked leaders weren’t permitted to know about the West outside of the official propaganda produced by the CCP.

For over 70 years the CCP narrative delivered to the Chinese population, and its elite leadership, has painted a distorted picture of the West. They were taught the West is evil and that they should not believe anything coming out of a democratic state. They were brainwashed to trust no Westerner. Perhaps, worst of all, the indoctrination led those senior leaders to make very basic false assumptions about democracy itself. While we have a bit better understanding of each other today, Washington continues to be surprised by China’s technological and political accomplishments. 

As the communist giant rises like a Phoenix bird from the ashes of the Unequal Treaties period, the West must gain a better understanding of the source of Xi Jinping’s global modus operandi. He intends to make the return of Taiwan his legacy and to put China on a new path toward global hegemony. All one needs to do is look at a Chinese language world map where Beijing remains dead center. Understanding does not mean agreement with China’s goals or methods for achieving them. However, if we are to maintain the rules-based, international order that has produced an era of relative peace and prosperity in the world, we need to understand what drives Chinese behavior. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department. She lived for as time in China.

During the buildup to an international crisis, such as the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are overlooked undertones that create a more complex and nuanced environment than is presented in the daily news cycle. When it comes to Russian-Ukrainian relations, Turkey is one such confounding factor. While the world is watching and waiting to see if Vladimir Putin creates a conflict in Ukraine, Ankara is playing an active, although less visible, role as one of Moscow’s Black Sea neighbors. Which side it supports, however, is a separate and complicated question.

Seven years after Russia first invaded the Donbass region Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense released video of a TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) striking a separatist D-30 howitzer in eastern Ukraine. The strike was the country’s first confirmed use of the now ubiquitous TB2, a Bayraktar-manufactured drone that the Turkish military has used effectively in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno Karabakh, which is an area of ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Baykar company chief technology officer is President Erdoğan’s son-in-law. 

According to a recently released Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) report, the Turkish-Ukrainian defense relationship is both understudied and potentially an important facet of how Russian political elites view North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) support for non-member Ukraine, and its potential to be “used to justify an invasion to assuage Moscow’s concerns about a US-allied military presence along its borders.” The TB2 probably will not alter Putin’s long-term plans but it does reinforce the bureaucratic mistrust between political leaders in Ankara and Moscow. 

Turkey stood apart from the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Since that time Turkish political leaders have paid close attention to its larger neighbor in an attempt to manage and deepened the relationship with Moscow. Since the 2016 failed coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan liberal institutions in Turkey have deteriorated and an authoritarian state has emerged. Erdoğan pushed away from the West and improved Turkey’s bilateral relationship with Russia. Putin was the first leader post-coup to call the Turkish president. Russia later sold Turkey its S-400 air and missile defense system. The United States warned Turkey of the threat the missiles posed to the F-35 fighter jet program in Turkey. According to the FPRI report, “Turkey was a Tier 3 member of the Joint Strike Fighter consortium and was slated to coproduce 100 F-35As and had explored purchasing a smaller number of F-35Bs for use by the Navy.” Ankara ignored the warnings and was expelled from the program and refused permission to purchase any F-35Bs. 

Erdoğan then made two juxtaposed decisions. Turkey signaled it would cooperate with Russia on 5th generation fighter technologies and also look into buying three squadrons of a Flanker variant for shorter term operational needs. At the same time, it also sought out Ukraine as a critical supplier of unmanned systems and turbofan engines for jet powered drones and aircraft for its indigenous defense programs. The Ukrainian-Turkish defense industry relationship remains intact today as each state produces items the other does not. Although it forces Erdoğan into a balancing act with Putin, the two leaders retain bilateral relations despite this issue.

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The Turkish-Ukrainian relationship pushes the Biden Administration into a tough position. Putin now can point to a NATO member state, Turkey, and demonstrate its military involvement and support for the leadership in Kiev as a justification for any across-the-border actions its takes against Ukraine. Erdoğan is attempting to force the Biden Administration into supporting its short-term fighter requirements in return for less military arms cooperation with Russia. Turkey walks a thin line in balancing its relationship with Moscow. This is especially so, according to the FPRI report, “Ankara can pursue a variation of this “fence sitting” policy [and] continue to export defense items to Kyiv, while simultaneously engaging Moscow, and resisting any US calls to independently support any coercive actions against Russia.” Aaron Stein, of FPRI, says that “Turkey is more likely to operate within the alliance, but resist calls to join US or EU calls to impose sanctions in response to an invasion.” 

The Turkish-made Stand-Off Munition, or SOM cruise missile, can be carried by Turkey’s newest drone: the Akinci. The risk it runs is a confrontation with Russian demands that NATO countries refrain from introducing long range missiles in Ukraine. The Biden Administration has “no interest in coercing its NATO ally from halting cooperation with Ukraine,” according to FPRI, but it is worth considering how third-party arms sales could negatively impact US interests in Europe. In the end, President Erdoğan relies on Turkey’s NATO membership to manage its relationship with Vladimir Putin. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

We have entered an American era when only a small group of privileged elites enjoy adequate representation.

Politicians ignore many voters. Union leaders act contrary to their members’ interest. Academics treat parents with contempt.

Many Americans have long suspected this was developing, but recent events have solidified their concerns. In particular, several stunning events have made it undeniably clear that the barons of government, labor and academia hold average Americans in utter contempt.

The concept of giving illegal aliens $450,000 in “damages” for being separated from the young people they defied the law and unlawfully crossed the border with is absurd, particularly when there is a significant possibility that those youth were transported for purposes of sex trafficking.

The very concept is extremely insulting, especially when the family of servicemembers killed in combat receive just $400,000. 

There is an increasing trend, supported largely in progressive-run cities, counties and states, to not cooperate with federal officials in dealing with the crime wave due to felonies committed by illegal immigrants.  Information on similar crimes committed by U.S. citizens that may have federal implications would be freely shared with Washington. In essence, illegals have been given greater rights than actual citizens.  The elected officials who subscribe to these “sanctuary city” measures have forgotten that they were elected to represent—and protect– Americans.

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Biden enjoyed the support of union leaders during his campaign.  That move was not backed by a substantial portion of rank-and-file members.  Their skepticism was well placed. In one of his first actions in office, the new President eliminated over 10,000 union jobs and cost union members about $2.2 billion in payroll.  The move shouldn’t have surprised anyone.

Energy and climate are key areas that have become a Progressive “Let them eat cake” moment, as the glitterati of politicians flew into Glasgow, Scotland on private jets and rode in stretch limousines to lecture mostly Americans on how to cut back on energy uses. Biden ignores the reality that the burden of the Paris Climate Accords, which he so vigorously supports, lays mostly on U.S. citizens, and will have relatively little impact on the environment. the President displays little regard for his constituents who can barely afford to drive to work or heat their homes due to his foolish energy policies. 

Senator John Barrasso (R-Wyo) chairman of the Committee on Environment and Public Works and member of the Committee on Foreign Relations, writing in USATODAY noted that “the climate deal punished America’s energy producers with expensive and burdensome regulations, it gave other countries U.S. taxpayer-funded subsidies and generous timelines. Countries like China got a free pass to pollute for over a decade. With abundant low-cost coal, China and India would put our manufacturers at a huge competitive disadvantage…”Forgetting whom he was elected to represent, Biden, while killing the Keystone Pipeline, nevertheless facilitated Russia’s similar project.

Elitist have used the very real threat of COVID as a wedge to wield ever greater power.  The absurd notion of suspending healthy police officers, particularly when crime is rising due to nonsensical no bail policies borders is gross arrogance. But many politicians don’t care.  After all, they can access taxpayer dollars or campaign contributions to provide private security for themselves. 

The most blatant example of elitist disregard for the average American can be seen in education. The ruling class of academic leaders, both in government, school administration and in union leadership puts students and their parents on the bottom of the list. Terry McAuliffe became the poster boy for arrogance when he proclaimed that parents had no say in their children’s curriculum, but the issue runs even deeper. Progressive and union campaigns against charter schools, and the increased diversion of funds away from actual teaching and towards other programs that have nothing to do with actual education is disgraceful.

Even Marie Antoinette would blush.