America’s Crises – USA Gov Policy

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Photo: Chinese advanced fighter aircraft J-10

Quick Analysis

U.S. Falling Behind Nuclear Adversaries

The United States, after decades of facing militarily inferior foes, now must deal with the reality of Putin’s nuclear saber rattling, (Russia has the world’s largest nuclear force,) China’s bid for military supremacy in the Indo-Pacific, and the rising atomic threats from North Korea and Iran. During the period when America did not face near-peer adversaries, its nuclear arsenal was allowed to age to an unacceptable level. According to the U.S. Strategic Command’s Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, the current security environment is unprecedented, with multiple new armed strategic adversaries who have not followed the U.S. lead as responsible nuclear powers, often working with regional actors to the detriment of a stable international system. For instance, he said, China’s military buildup is ramping up, particularly its dual-use military-civilian shipyards and nuclear delivery platforms, adding that China has made its intentions clear that it intends to seize Taiwan by 2027. General Cotton notes that following the Cold War, there was no perceived near-peer competitor, so the U.S. took advantage of the peace dividend, scaling back the military industrial base and deferring nuclear modernization. “great power competition is back. That is why I speak …with a sense of urgency.” Some things that need to be delivered, he said, include the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, the Columbia-class submarine and the B-21 Raider bomber. “Further delay of these programs will have cascading effects,” Cotton said. He added that the B-52 needs to be modernized with new engines and upgraded radar and electronic suites, Cotton emphasized that maintaining a sustained and credible nuclear deterrent isn’t that expensive, considering the alternatives. Current funding for the Defense Department’s nuclear portfolio is only around 4% of the budget. He emphasized that conventional capabilities complement nuclear deterrence. For instance, hypersonics provide a responsive, long-range, non-nuclear strike capability against non-critical threats without resorting to nuclear options. They allow mission planners to tailor strategies and plans that will enable the president to have an extended range of options across all phases of conflict and to control escalation. Other important options for the president include cyber and space capabilities as well as unmanned, inexpensive systems in the air and water. The general’s warning is reflected in a Heritage Foundation study which reported that “The United States must rebuild and replace its Cold War–era nuclear deterrent, given the growing threats posed by the autocrats in Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang, and Tehran. China is the fastest-growing nuclear power on the planet, building more than 100 new nuclear weapons per year. Russia has more than 10 times as many operationally deployed non-strategic nuclear weapons than the United States. North Korea regularly threatens the United States and its allies in South Korea and Japan with nuclear annihilation. And Tehran may be weeks away from the bomb. The United States must—immediately and continuing over the next four years—build and field a deterrent that is credible and can therefore deter, and, if necessary, defeat, adversary aggression and nuclear coercion.” In a 2023 Newsmax op-ed, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) expressed his concern that “When the United States built much of its nuclear stockpile, the Cold War was raging and the Soviet Union was our only major adversary with a sophisticated nuclear stockpile. Our nuclear power deterred Soviet aggression and ensured that the Cold War never escalated. “But today, we no longer face just one threat. Russia still maintains the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, but China’s nuclear stockpile is growing rapidly. North Korea continues to threaten our allies with its collection of nuclear weapons. And, thanks to the disastrous Iran nuclear deal, Iran is marching ever closer to developing nuclear weapons of its own. “The United States must now counter nuclear superpowers in both China and Russia while also deterring the itchy trigger fingers of unstable dictators like Kim Jong Un and the Ayatollah in Iran. We should be innovating and preparing our nuclear arsenal for this new global dynamic, but instead, our nuclear stockpile remains stuck in the Cold War. “Simply put: America’s nuclear stockpile is old and shrinking. And while modernizing our nuclear arsenal should be a top priority, our effort to restart nuclear weapon production has been riddled with delays and poor planning. And we don’t have time to waste. “The United States has not built a single nuclear warhead since the close of the Cold War. Instead, we’ve focused on “life extension programs” to keep our old weapons operational by refurbishing them. Those that aren’t refurbished are destroyed. From 1994 to 2020, the U.S. dismantled 11,683 total nuclear warheads. This total does not include the 2,000 other warheads that have been “retired” while awaiting their own demolition, too. “Most of our nuclear warheads are decades old. The facilities where we built and store these are even older. As recently as 2019, the computer system controlling our nuclear weapons ran on floppy disks. Today, we are so far behind in our nuclear revitalization that we cannot even produce plutonium pits – an essential component of every nuclear weapon…the United States has not regularly manufactured plutonium pits since 1989. In fact, the United States has not produced a single warhead-ready plutonium pit since 2012. “But our adversaries never stopped. China, Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan all continue to produce plutonium pits to ready their arsenals. Yet the United States fell asleep at the wheel and let our plutonium pit production die off entirely…Modernizing our nuclear stockpile is essential for maintaining our national security and affirming our position as a global leader. Our weapons don’t only protect Americans; they protect our allies, too. As part of our Extended Deterrence Strategy, we’ve agreed to help defend our allies who don’t have nuclear weapons of their own. But our allies see our antiquated stockpile and wonder if we can follow through on that promise. “Look no further than China. According to the Pentagon, China already has more ICBMs than the United States. In 2021, China had 400 nuclear warheads. By 2035, China will have 1,500, far outpacing the Pentagon’s initial projections. China is also rapidly innovating. The Chinese military has been testing nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles that can […]

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