Month: October 2023

Great power politics is often played out in a proxy state like those found in Central Asia. Despite decades of Soviet influence in the region, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, last week shared his new strategic vision for his country’s future. He described it as free of the “dependence on raw materials, low labor productivity, insufficient levels of innovation, and uneven distribution of income” plaguing the nation. This year’s stagnant economic performance pushed Tokayev to turn away from Russia to fulfill its economic needs and to strengthen its “multi-vector” foreign policy. This fall he is looking eastward to China as an alternative to his country’s Russian partners. The path for China in Central Asia is filled with obstacles.

Since Kazakhstan’s mass protests in early 2022, officials in Astana have sought measures to deal with the effects of Western sanctions on Russia. Last week, on September 28, Tokayev declared his country will “unambiguously… follow the sanctions regime” against Russia. Berikbol Dukeyev, writing in the Eurasia Daily Monitor, says that despite attempts by the current administration in Astana to distinguish itself from the previous economic and foreign policy failures of the country’s former leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan has limited options. Tokayev, it appears, has chosen to pivot to China. Earlier this year in May he held a number of talks with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping and signed several agreements intended to dramatically boost economic relations by intensifying bilateral cooperation in trade, energy, and agriculture, among other fields.

Beijing seized the opportunity to fill the power vacuum left by a weakened Russian state still at war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan, however, still maintains extensive economic and political ties to Moscow. In January, the Russian publication Kommersant claimed that the intervention of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is responsible for strengthening Tokayev’s control over the country and that he is beholden to Moscow. Tokayev is fighting back.

“In July 2023, China officially became Kazakhstan’s top trade partner, accounting for 19.2 percent of all Kazakhstani trade,” according to Dukeyev. In recent public polling, Kazakhstani citizens expressed a sharp increase in negative attitudes toward Moscow, rising from four percent in 2019 to 19 percent in September 2023. It is due in part to the social unease in Kazakhstan, he says, from the recent influx of military-age Russian men fleeing the “partial mobilization” and economic struggles due to the war in Ukraine.

Russia retaliated against Kazakhstan several times for its moves toward China by blocking the flow of oil to punish the leadership in Astana and the general population. Kazakhstan responded to Putin by purchasing two oil tankers to bypass Russia and export its oil to Europe through Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Tokayev then lobbied Chinese investors at an economic summit in Xian, China, citing his nation’s economic reform agenda and diversification as reasons for China to increase bilateral trade with the Central Asian state. In May the two countries signed a $22 billion trade agreement. According to the Kazakhstani publication Akorda, Beijing and Astana planned to increase bilateral trade from $31 billion to $40 billion in the coming years. Last month the Astani publication Kursiv.kz reported that increased cooperation with China also increased demand in the country for specialists with Mandarin-speaking skills.

The road through Central Asia to Europe is not a smooth one for China despite the pivot. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, once expected to bring prosperity to the Central Asian region has been hampered by multiple project failures, according to Dukeyev. That has dulled the population’s positive attitude toward Beijing. Xi Jinping also faces accusations that China’s projects are plagued by charges of corruption and smuggling. The Khorgos dry port and special economic zone in Kazakhstan, once a touted

s a promising trade hub for shipping Chinese goods to Europe, has failed to achieve its goals. Other scandals involving Chinese and Kazakhstani officials include the postponed Chinese light rail train project. Its completion date is now delayed until at least 2025, according to Astani officials.

“The need to boost economic ties with China has influenced Kazakhstan’s delicate approach to allow expanded Chinese usage of the trans-boundary Ile River. The basin contributes about 70 percent of the water inflow into Kazakhstan’s Balkhash Lake. Recent discussions on building a nuclear power plant on the lake’s shoreline highlighted that its water levels are dropping due to China’s increase land development and expansion of the rice fields in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,” says Dukeyev. The Tokayev administration has promised a nationwide referendum on the proposed nuclear power plant, although it has not directly criticized Beijing.

China also faces worries from the general population in Kazakhstan due to its recently proposed 30-day visa-free travel plan. Public sentiment in the country is responding to fears that a large influx of Chinese nationals in a tough job market will hurt the citizenry. Dukeyev says that the legal status of dual Kazakhstani-Chinese citizens is in question, too. Some of those living in China have been prosecuted and sent to Chinese “re-education camps.”

Beijing is making inroads in Central Asia, but there is a lack of popular support for its failing economic projects. The Tokayev administration is faced simultaneously with a battle to gain legitimacy at home by balancing between cooperation with Beijing and capitalizing on Russian weakness. Although China is gaining a foothold in Central Asia, it is a tenuous one that could falter at any time.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

Hungary is no longer under the influence of the Soviet Union. The same cannot be said of its relationship with Putin’s Russia. On September 11, TASS reported Hungary’s Ambassador to Russia, Norbert Konkoly, made an official statement that Budapest remains “fully committed” to additional cooperation with Moscow on nuclear energy. The timing of the statement coincided with the start of Russia’s Rosatom Paks-2 expansion project for Hungary’s new VVER nuclear units. Konkoly’s task — put to rest rumors that Hungary might replace Russian nuclear fuel for the operating reactors of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) with French suppliers.

Hungary’s leadership is intent on maintaining the flow of Russian oil and gas into the country and adamant about nuclear energy cooperation. Mateusz Kubiak, of the Jamestown Foundation, reported that in July 2023 alone Budapest imported 412 million cubic meters (mcm) of Russian gas. The country’s monthly consumption rate averages 300-400 mcm. Less than a month later, Peter Szijjarto, Hungary’s Prime Minister, announced publicly the earlier signing of a deal with Gazprom for delivery of an additional 5.8 mcm of gas via Serbia.

It appears Hungary will continue to block any EU attempts to impose sanctions packages on Russian energy firms, including Rosatom and its subsidiaries. In late September 2022, Euractiv reported that Szijjarto announced at an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting that Budapest viewed any attempt to impede “the construction of our nuclear plants as attacks against our sovereignty.” All of the country’s four operating nuclear reactors, connected to the grid since the 1980’s, are based on the VVER-440 Russian design. The fuel is supplied by Russia’s TVEL, the company that also provides fuel for similar reactors in the EU located in Finland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria. Other VVER operators in the EU have sought alternative fuel sources from Westinghouse to Framatome.

In contrast, Hungary’s position is that it does not have an alternative, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Levente Magyar. He claimed last month that “nobody by the Russians can guarantee [a supply] at the current level.”

The initial Paks-2 project intergovernmental agreement was signed with Russia in 2014. At the time Moscow agreed to provide 80 percent of the financing, 10 billion Euros of the project’s entire cost with preferential repayment terms. Regulatory issues pushed back the operational date from 2026 to 2030.

The current timeline leaves little room for delays, according to Rosatom. Past delays on Paks-2 stalled the project for years, including noncompliance issues with internal EU market regulations and its proposed handling of nuclear waste. The EU cut a deal with Hungary in 2017 to permit the Paks-2 project to continue if Hungary maintained its independence from Paks-1 and sold 30 percent of its electricity output on the open market. According to TASS, France and Germany remain cautious on what effect Hungary’s reliance on Russian energy will have on the country’s foreign policy and EU aid to Ukraine. Government officials in Budapest seen no problem with a heavy dependence on Russian sources for its energy security.

Currently Hungary is a net importer of energy, with a projected increase in its electric consumption from 40-45 terawatt hours annually to as high as 50-55 terawatt hours per year over the next decade. “Hungary’s commitment to its energy alliance with Moscow effectively prevents the European Union from sanctioning Rosatom and other Russian energy companies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” says Kubiak. As much as 46 percent of Hungary’s electricity generation is derived from the four Paks nuclear reactors in operation. Using Russian nuclear fuel, they are capable of producing 2 gigawatts of energy. Their operating license is due to expire in 2030, although Hungary is attempting to extend the plants lifespans for an additional two decades to 2050. It places Hungary in an increasingly reliant position on Moscow. Hungarian Today notes that it has pushed some opposition members in the country to call for Budapest to hold consultation with the Visegrad Group, made up of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, and other EU members to avoid “putting all its eggs in once basket.” Analysts in Washington point out that it is highly unlikely that Budapest will change its energy position in the coming years with alternative, non-Russian fuel supplies or abandon the Paks-2.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

“The U.S. faces an unprecedented number of complex biological threats posed by near-peer competitors, non-state actors and naturally occurring pandemics,” warns Deborah G. Rosenblum, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical and biological defense programs She stated that this requirs a significant response by the Defense Department.

The Department of Homeland Security defines the threat as the intentional release of a pathogen (disease causing agent) or biotoxin (poisonous substance produced by a living organism) against humans, plants, or animals. An attack against people could be used to cause illness, death, fear, societal disruption, and economic damage. An attack on agricultural plants and animals would primarily cause economic damage, loss of confidence in the food supply, and possible loss of life. Aerosols, infected humans, animals, insects, and the contamination of crops.

Among the most serious of these threats are Anthrax, Plague, Tularemia, Marburg disease, Ebola, smallpox, and Botulism, followed by Cholera, Glanders,  Q fever Encephalitis and Ricin.

“These threats certainly impact the readiness and resilience of our military forces,” Rosenblum said. “Biodefense is no longer something that’s the purview of just specialized units who have traditionally been worried about these threats…deterrence requires a combat credible force… be combat credible, the whole joint force must be capable of fighting through biothreats and being resilient.” 

In August, the Pentagon released its first Biodefense Posture Review which lays out key reforms aimed at positioning the U.S. to counter biothreats through 2035.  The reforms outlined in the review call for enhanced early warning and understanding of emerging biothreats, improving preparedness of the total force, speeding response to biothreats to mitigate their impact on DOD missions and improving strategic coordination and collaboration to enhance biodefense.  The reforms will be initiated by the newly created biodefense council, chaired by William A. LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. 

The reforms also align with key National Defense Strategy priorities to defend the homeland against the multidomain pacing threat posed by the People’s Republic of China, deter strategic attacks against the U.S. and its allies and build a resilient joint force.  

“The [Biodefense Posture Review] was built on the foundation laid out in the National Defense Strategy along with the National Biodefense Strategy, but it was also greatly informed by a number of lessons learned from the COVID-19 response,” Rosenblum said.  She noted that in addition to remaining focused on biological threats posed by near-peer competitors and nonstate actors, the U.S. must remain focused on emerging biotechnologies that could be incorporated into adversaries’ future biological warfare programs. 

“We are at a pivotal point in biodefense,” Rosenblum said. “We must maintain our momentum to prepare for any number of complex potential biological threats.” 

A Defense Department analysis notes that the threat and risk from bioincidents must be taken seriously, and implement the significant reforms to lay the foundation for a resilient Total Force that deters the use of bioweapons, rapidly responds to natural outbreaks, and minimizes the global risk of laboratory accidents. The study emphasizes that “This must be done with stronger collaboration with U.S. interagency partners and abroad with allies and partners working collectively to understand the threat, prepare and protect the force, and quickly respond to and mitigate the effects of bioincidents.”

According to the Pentagon, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, probably maintain the knowledge and capability to produce and employ traditional pathogens and toxins. These countries historically pursued, and at least one country (North Korea) continues to pursue, pathogens that cause highly infectious or contagious diseases, such as anthrax, plague, and toxins, including botulinum toxin. These nations probably also retain the knowledge and ability to employ these agents if necessary.

Photo: Department of Defense

There has not been an appropriate sense of crisis during a time of unprecedented failure in America’s economy, its political life, and in its foreign affairs. There is a reason for that.  The failures are the direct result of policies that are favored by the progressive elite and their allies in the media.

The nation is currently experiencing an odd combination of high prices and poor growth. Emerging from COVID, the U.S. economy should have bolted out of the starting gate at a fast clip. However, on day one, the Biden Administration crippled that opportunity by a direct attack on energy.  The availability of affordable energy is the very foundation of the modern economy. So-called renewables cannot meet the needs of the 21^st Century marketplace.  Instead of attempting to repeal modernity, It would be logical to concentrate on the development of truly viable new sources such as fusion. Instead, a scientifically irrational and economically damaging assault on fossil fuels was launched. The media, largely responsible for the outcome of the 2020 election, is loath to admit Biden’s mistake, so the foolish policy continues.

The damaging experiment in luddite environmentalism is getting worse. Bans are being proposed on many uses of clean, plentiful natural gas, with no adequate replacement in sight.  Turning the clock back to the pre-industrial revolution era will result in more than just the greatest depression the planet has ever endured. The truly insane drive against fertilizers will result in the starvation of millions.

The Biden Administration, by far the most left-leaning in U.S. history, alleges that it is having success in job creation. Nonsense! According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, during COVD, “The longest employment recovery and expansion in U.S. history abruptly ended, with total nonfarm employment falling sharply because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the efforts to contain it. Job losses were historic and widespread. Although state and local government restrictions on businesses and individuals began to ease somewhat after April 2020, total nonfarm employment ended the year 10.0 million below its February peak. Since Biden became president, the job recovery has merely been the expected effects of a return to normalcy.

There can be no excuse for racism.  It is undeniable that black Americans suffered horribly from slavery and segregation.  However, those practices ended 158 years and 58 years ago, respectively. Almost three generations of affirmative action, poverty programs, and legal reforms have followed. There has been a black president, black governors, supreme court justices, police commissioners, and military leaders. The mayors of the nations’ largest cities are black.  Contrary to the allegation of “systemic racism,” there are no laws, regulations or governmental practices that condone racist policies.

But because progressives cannot point to any achievements, they instead seek to gain support by the vile practice of inciting groups of people against each other on specious grounds. Isolated instances of rare abuses by police officers are portrayed as general practices and used to justify false claims of official malpractice.

Similarly, over the past several years, radicalized educational leaders have warped lower school curriculum and abused school finances to develop practices such as introducing explicit sex lessons for very young students and having drag queens and transvestites teach inappropriate instruction to the lowest grades.  When parents rightfully object to these warped endeavors, the response is to create a myth that America is biased against non-heterosexuals.  That’s nonsense!  Parental objections would be the same if similar but “straight” explicit sex lessons were being used.

The other gambit progressives have employed to win elections an influence the public is by buying support and votes through give-away programs that are inherently unfair to the majority of hard-working, taxpaying citizens. With a nation already more deeply in debt than anytime since the Second World War, and with nothing to show for it (except many elected progressive politicians) the left has sought to ignore international dangers and underfund the military. Biden’s defense budgets have resulted in actual spending power cuts, when inflation is taken into consideration. Ignoring China’s massive threat is a dangerous choice.

Progressives have shamelessly divided the nation, abused public finances, and run roughshod over hardworking Americans.

Illustration: Pixabay

Key news events which appear, at first glance, to be totally unrelated are in fact different elements of a common endeavor.

Over the past several years, lawlessness has been a significant theme. Street riots, assaults on federal court houses, invaded police stations, and increased violent crime have all met with little response in numerous jurisdictions. Massive illegal immigration has been virtually ignored; some might even say encouraged. Official wrongdoing, including lying to Congress, has gone unpunished. Important figures entrusted with enforcing the law have stonewalled investigations or appropriate responses to offenses such as destroying federal evidence, accepting bribes, and abusing federal agencies for partisan political purposes. Public educational institutions from kindergarten through graduate school have used tax dollars for partisan ideological indoctrination.

Those seeking to respond to or expose this crisis have been threatened or ostracized. Publications which exposed official wrongdoing have been ignored, censored and ridiculed. Border patrol agents have been threatened for merely doing their job. Parents who have exposed abusive practices in schools have been labelled domestic terrorists. Whistleblowers who attempted to reveal misdeeds in federal agencies have been retaliated against. Police officers have been maligned for the misdeeds of just a microscopically small number.

There is no singular organization that is guiding these wrongdoings on a daily basis. There is no underground bunker where all this is being coordinated. There are wealthy and powerful figures at home and abroad who believe that concepts such as individual freedom and capitalism are bad, and eliminating the Bill of Rights, U.S. sovereignty, and capitalism are essential to replace those foundational concepts with ideals such as an all-powerful central government.   They contribute to one aspect or another of the threat, and they use low-information influencers and advocates for their own ends. They utilize disparate interest groups to vanquish American culture as it currently exists.

Examples abound.

It was proven dramatically, following the fall of the Iron Curtain, that capitalist economies are better stewards of the environment than their socialist counterparts.  Despite that, extreme environmentalists target capitalism and embrace socialist concepts in the mistaken belief that this will result in a healthier planet. Their activism is a valuable force in the goal of attacking private property rights and free enterprise.

The American population has been raised in an environment where the concept of freedom is an organic part of our thinking. That doesn’t work if socialism is to be established.  Bringing in vast numbers of illegal immigrants who, thanks to a combination of lax voting identification and authentication procedures will be able to cast votes unlawfully now and perhaps legally later (some jurisdiction already allow illegals to vote in local elections) weakens that ingrained devotion to freedom. The hyperventilating reaction of the Left to any discussion of inappropriate voting activities and election irregularities indicates how central a role this is to their ongoing efforts to, as Barack Obama famously stated, “Fundamentally transform” America.

For a society of free individuals to flourish, a commonly accepted set of laws and the impartial enforcement of those statutes is essential. Without that, there is nothing but the whim of the powerful, a common feature in authoritarian regimes. That is why the socialist left is so lax in the control of crimes against people and property, but seeks to impose so many restrictions imposed by bureaucratic regulations. That is also why the police are maligned and defunded, and why Supreme Court Justices who stand for traditional rights and values have been so shockingly threatened and maligned.

The U.S. is the bulwark of individual freedom across the planet, to the dismay of those who prefer that a centralized group of self-proclaimed experts rule. Tearing down American power and influence is pivotal to them. Therefore, they seek to reduce American military strength, destroy its borders, and replace the nation’s emphasis from one of freedom to a variety of disparate and divisive causes.

Illustration: Pixabay