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Twin Exposures Highlight Leftist Misdeeds

The Durham investigation has revealed that the entire “Russian Collusion” charge was completely false, manufactured solely for the purpose of ensuring that Hillary would win the 2016 campaign.

The key perpetrators, including the Clintons, as well as the leadership of the Democratic Party, and in particular Rep. Adam Schiff, serving as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, knew of the fraud. As the New York Post reported in 2020, “As the grand impresario of collusion, Schiff has filled print and broadcast media since January 2017 claiming that he has seen “more than circumstantial evidence” of a Trump-Putin conspiracy. Obviously there was none in the transcripts…”

 Key portions of the media which had already abandoned journalistic ethics in their determination to place their favored candidate in the Oval Office, eagerly went along. Pulitzer Prizes were awarded for their false reporting. The Washington Post falsely wrote in 2018 “Coupled with another groundless attack on the FBI and an apparent endorsement of a patently disingenuous offer by Mr. Putin to collaborate with the investigation of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, Mr. Trump appeared to align himself with the Kremlin against American law enforcement before the Russian ruler and a global audience.”

The crime was undoubtedly the worst in American political history.

Usually, campaign misdeeds end on election day. But the Clinton/Democratic Party offense extended far beyond.  It divided the nation more harshly than anything since the Civil War. It had severe implications for U.S. foreign Affairs. Lives were ruined. Federal agencies abused private citizens on behalf of power brokers–all for the purpose of placing a Democrat in the White House. Both the legislative and executive branches of government were diverted from their duties, although, to its credit, the Trump Administration accomplished much.

Accomplished much despite the left’s profound efforts to continue the hoax, and distract the public with Antifa riots when the fraud became increasingly evident

It was more than a felony. It was an unprecedented act of immorality.

There is a role for morality in politics. Advocate that concept, however, at your own peril.  Undoubtedly, anyone forwarding the idea will be immediately assaulted by a legion of progressive critics pointing out the past foibles and imperfections of the person or organizations bringing it up, in order to distract the conversation from the issue at hand.

It’s the same logic used to justify assaulting figures such as Abraham Lincoln.  As a result, a perfect environment has been created for tolerating immoral deeds including Russian Collusion, biased journalism, and the abuse of government agencies and organizations for partisan gain.

The electorate has become cognizant of this trend, and is beginning to react to it. The results of the recent election, especially in Virginia, highlight the issue.

The public school system has been one of the most prominent examples of immorality in American government.  For decades, powerful teachers’ union officials have subordinated the interests of children, and the struggles by wonderful teachers to present honest curriculum, to the desires of leftist-dominated union leaders. Rejecting objective education for propaganda, they have used their influential position to indoctrinate children to their views. Those unions leaders have vigorously supported Democratic politicians in return for their looking the other way.

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Terry McAuliffe made the mistake of openly stating that parents had no right to object to this charade, and lost his gubernatorial bid as a result. Hopefully, it is the start of a trend. 

The Durham investigation’s recent report, following McAuliffe’s self-exposure, presented a one-two punch to the environment of political corruption that has dominated the left and their media allies.

Despite the exposures, however, the challenge is far from over. Still guarded by a biased media, and having had the precedent of leftist officials repeatedly escaping liability for misdeeds, there will be no contrition, no soul searching. The only change will be in rhetoric that attempts to explain away the heinous crimes and governing errors that have so damaged the nation.

Illustration: Pixabay

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DoD Concludes 2021 Global Posture Review

The Department of Defense recently released a summary of its classified “Global Posture Review.”

In the Indo-Pacific, the review advocates additional cooperation with allies and partners to advance initiatives that contribute to regional stability and deter potential Chinese military aggression and threats from North Korea.  These initiatives include seeking greater regional access for military partnership activities; enhancing infrastructure in Australia and the Pacific Islands; and planning rotational aircraft deployments in Australia, as announced in September.  The GPR also informed Secretary Austin’s approval of the permanent stationing of a previously-rotational attack helicopter squadron and artillery division headquarters in the Republic of Korea, announced earlier this year.

In Europe, the GPR strengthens the U.S. combat-credible deterrent against Russian aggression and enables NATO forces to operate more effectively.  Based on an initial GPR assessments and a recommendation from Secretary Austin, in February 2021 President Biden rescinded the 25,000 active duty force cap in Germany. Additionally, Secretary Austin announced in April that DoD would permanently station an Army Multi-Domain Task Force and a Theater Fires Command, a total of 500 Army personnel, in Germany. 

In the Middle East, the GPR assessed the department’s approach toward Iran and the evolving counterterrorism requirements following the end of DoD operations in Afghanistan.  In Iraq and Syria, DoD posture will continue to support the Defeat-ISIS campaign and building the capacity of partner forces.  Looking ahead, the review directs DoD to conduct additional analysis on enduring posture requirements in the Middle East.

In Africa, analysis from the review is supporting several ongoing interagency reviews to ensure DoD has an appropriately-scoped posture to monitor threats from regional violent extremist organizations, support U.S. diplomatic activities and support America’s allies and partners.

Finally, in Central and South America and the Caribbean, the GPR reviewed the role of DoD posture in support of national security objectives, including humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and counter-narcotics missions.  DoD posture will continue to support U.S. Government efforts on the range of transnational challenges and partnership activities in the region.

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 “The main outcome of the review is the return to normal of determining military posture around the world and tying that to America’s strategic alignment”  an official speaking on background said.

The Defense Department notes that “It is no surprise that the Indo-Pacific is the priority region for the review, given [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s] focus on China as America’s pacing challenge. The review directs additional cooperation with allies and partners to advance initiatives that contribute to regional stability and deter Chinese military aggression and threats from North Korea.”

President Joe Biden has accepted the recommendations. Some may see that as a contradiction for his Administration. Additional measures to counter China and Russia produce additional costs, but the White House budget submitted to Congress effectively produced a cut in the Pentagon’s spending power.  Congress has moved to correct that but providing a budget that will revise that request and increase the military budget.

It is no surprise that the Indo-Pacific is the priority region for the review, given the secretary’s focus on China as America’s pacing challenge. The review directs additional cooperation with allies and partners to advance initiatives that contribute to regional stability and deter Chinese military aggression and threats from North Korea. 

One of America’s key allies, Australia, has clearly been concerned both by China’s aggression, and concern about the strength of the U.S. military. Australia’s United States Study Center recently reported that “Australia and the United States have entered a new era of strategic competition with China. Following decades of US military supremacy in the Indo-Pacific, Washington’s approach to regional defence strategy is being re-evaluated in light of a shifting balance of power. In Australia, this has sparked debates about the sustainability of the United States’ military position in the Indo-Pacific and what role Canberra should play in collectively upholding the regional order. Washington is grappling with these debates, aware that its regional alliance network is a key advantage over its near-peer competitor, the People’s Republic of China.”

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China Expands Nuclear Weapons Capabilities

China has been in the news for “all the wrong reasons” lately, according to a military analyst talking about recent advances in the modernization of China’s offensive nuclear capabilities. In a December meeting of China specialists that the Jamestown Foundation held to discuss China and nuclear deterrence in the hypersonic era, the discussion centered on what is driving China’s plans for modernizing of its nuclear force and how it is diversifying its posture to become more aggressive and deadly. 

The group agreed that the military doctrine of China’s President Xi Jinping, although little detail is known, calls for expanding the number of nuclear warheads, building new silo fields and nuclear reactors, and reorganizing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Xi’s plan contains strategic options and includes more advanced weapons technologies that are “bolder than all previous Chinese leaders” combined according to one participant. This year Xi has stated a number of times publicly that he intends to create a more powerful nuclear deterrent to enable China to deter the United States from actions against it in East Asia. There was agreement at the meeting that China can win a conventional war against China if it attempts to take over Taiwan in the future. According to Bill Bates, a Chinese nuclear expert, Xi’s strategic goal is to create a US-China stalemate at the nuclear level which will allow Beijing a free hand at the conventional level. This could mean taking Taiwan, expanding it naval influence over maritime commerce in the South China Sea or even adventures in other areas of the world.

China from 2017-2020 increased the number of its PLA Rocket Force brigades from 29 to over 40, which represents a 35% increase in just 48 months. Many of these units are nuclear capable. Estimates are that within the next four years China will have deployed a minimum of 200 nuclear warheads capable of being launched from a land-based silo or mobile unit, or by air or sea. It is often referred to as the nuclear triad. China just 12 months later, in 2027, is expected to jump the number dramatically to 700 and by 2030 it is likely to have 1,000 nuclear capable weapons ready for launch. Xi also has ordered the building of multiple launch sites that already appear capable of housing more than 300 nuclear weapons. Whether these are armed is unknown within the public domain. One unnamed military analyst in Washington suggested that they are, and that the density of each silo field suggests China is developing what it intends to be a first strike capability.

In the news recently China boasted about successfully testing a hypersonic wind tunnel many generations ahead of any other in the world. It also tested a hypersonic vehicle believed capable of delivering a nuclear weapon anywhere in the continental United States after crossing the southern polar cap. The Chinese Rocket Force tested the missile by sending it around the entire globe this fall before landing it near its intended target. NORAD and the majority of America’s defense is aimed at stopping a missile threat from the north. Several analysts in the intelligence community admitted the rapid pace of Chinese hypersonic developments “caught us off guard.”

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The Jamestown meeting addressed a number of factors driving the development of China’s nuclear strategy. What emerged of great concern in the meeting is the increased global risk that a desperate China poses and the possibility it may become even more unpredictable in the future. US military analysts mentioned that advanced reconnaissance by the United States suggests a first strike by China today could be either nuclear or conventional. 

Domestically, the Chinese leadership is concerned about its own survivability. Bureaucratic politics, like other nation-states, factors into domestic policy at home. Those politicians at risk of losing their standing in Beijing, it is believed, are helping to shape the direction and certain aspects of China’s offensive nuclear posture. If this is the case it is indicative of domestic support for a more aggressive foreign policy. It is believed that the CCP remains divided over China’s nuclear policy. Depending on the strength of Xi’s domestic opposition, the United States may be facing a more unstable China in the near future and one that has integrated its cyber, space and nuclear strategies into a more flexible, usable, and adaptable response to perceived foreign threats. The result will limit the ability of the U.S. top maneuver in a crisis in Asia at both a strategic and tactical level and further complicates American military planning and operations in the region. As China reorganizes its PLA Rocket Force to rid it of the technical constraints in launching a nuclear weapon the big question no one in Washington is asking out loud is does this mean China is changing its posture and eliminating its “no first use” policy.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

Illustration: Pixabay

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Putin’s Russia Is On The Move… Or Is It?

“US intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops,” according to officials in Washington and an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post. President Vladimir Putin this week is making blatant demands of President Biden that he guarantee the United States will not send any troops to join NATO in response to a possible Russian offensive or help the Ukraine in any way. In addition, he is demanding that Biden sign a statement promising the United States will not support an expansion of NATO to include Ukraine or Georgia while also limiting US and NATO-related military activity near Russia’s borders.

Washington Post writer Shane Harris, referring to the leaked intelligence document in the paper, writes that an unnamed Biden Administration official told him that “The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders… The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.” Russian forces already appear to be massing in four locations in preparation for an offensive sometime soon after Christmas. According to the US intelligence document, 50 battlefield tactical groups are deployed, along with “newly arrived” tanks and artillery. US satellite imagery from November indicates that the size of the buildup of troops along the Ukrainian border enables Putin to call for a rapid escalation if he decides to move.

Officials in Washington have not said yet whether they believe Putin has already made the decision to invade the Ukraine. However, all signs indicate an attack is imminent in the coming weeks. Earlier this year Russian forces, in what was labeled a military exercise, rehearsed for a ground and air invasion along the Ukrainian border. After ending the “exercise” Russian forces left heavy military equipment in the area. The forward basing of materiel is a further indication of Russia’s intent to attack in the near future. The US intelligence document leaked to the Washington Post says the placement of “Equipment may be left behind at different training ranges to enable a rapid, final buildup.” 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in public comments this week, said “We must prepare for all contingencies,” echoing Putin’s warning to the US to stay away and not allow NATO to interfere. Lavrov declared that “The nightmare scenario of military confrontation is returning.” Russia, long known for its extensive propaganda campaigns, is using its intelligence operatives to help spin the story. A US official said: “Recent information also indicates that Russian officials proposed adjusting Russia’s information operations against Ukraine to emphasize the narrative that Ukrainian leaders had been installed by the West, harbored a hatred for the ‘Russian world,’ and were acting against the interests of the Ukrainian people.”

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In a recent meeting with Ukrainian officials, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned officials in Kiev  not to give Russia any pretext for invasion. Yet twenty-four hours after warning Putin that the US would impose sanctions on Russia if it invaded the Ukraine, Biden responded to a reporter’s question about possible US troop involvement by stating “That is not on the table.” Biden’s clearly-worded statement is interpreted by some political analysts in Moscow as the US President, in effect, giving Putin a “go ahead” signal by revealing the US military will step aside if Russian troops invade its neighbor. In an earlier statement Karine Jean-Pierre, the deputy White House press secretary, appeared to contradict Biden when she said “… we are preparing for all contingencies, as we have been doing for weeks now, including preparing specific robust responses to Russian escalation should they be required.” Putin must have heard the mixed signals coming out of Washington and taken it as carte blanche for his plan.

While Putin may only be attempting a diplomatic maneuver against admission of the Ukraine into NATO, without the use of a military force, it is an unlikely scenario. Under NATO rules a nation-state must be free of foreign forces controlling any part of its territory before it can qualify to become a Member State. Neither Ukraine nor Georgia qualify for full membership in NATO due to the occupation of their territory by Russian military forces. The more likely scenario is that Putin is seizing an opportunity given the recent US debacle during its withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan. Putin may assume it is on the minds of leaders in Washington and that none have the political willpower to get involved in another costly conflict that could escalate quickly to war throughout the European continent.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Photo: File photo of Russian tank (Russian Defence Ministry)

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Panic season is here again

A new variant of Covid 19 has been discovered, and given the ominous name of Omicron.  According to the New York Post, “(s)cientists looked at virus samples and discovered the new variant after South African cases began to explode (at the end of November) after holding at about 200 a day. Cases neared 2,500 (by November 27)… (t)he seemingly high number of mutations — about 30 — in the coronavirus’ spike protein could mean it spreads easily. That is about double the number of mutations of the Delta variant, and could mean increased transmissibility.” 

The World Health Organization (WHO) wasted no time in labeling the new variant a “concern,” stating that “(t)he overall global risk related to the new variant … is assessed as very high”…adding that Omicron “has an unprecedented number of spike mutations, some of which are concerning for their potential impact on the trajectory of the pandemic.”  As if that didn’t sound serious enough, the WHO added that “(t)he presence of multiple mutations of the spike protein in the receptor-binding domain suggests that Omicron may have a high likelihood of immune escape from antibody-mediated protection” which means the strain has the potential “to escape protection offered by vaccines and previous infections.”

Nonetheless, “despite this troubling assessment, the agency cautioned against imposing travel bans, amid worries that banning travel from countries where new variants are first detected could be unfair and dissuade surveillance.  ‘With the Omicron variant now detected in several regions of the world, putting in place travel bans that target Africa attacks global solidarity,’ WHO regional director Matshidiso Moeti said…” 

In light of this recommendation from the scientists at WHO, what is the first thing President Joe “I follow the science” Biden does?

“The Biden administration announced plans…to ban travel to the United States from South Africa and seven other countries, just hours after a new coronavirus variant was deemed a highly transmissible virus of concern… Biden…urged fully vaccinated Americans to get booster shots and the unvaccinated to get the ‘life-saving protection.’ Biden also addressed the global community in his statement, saying the new variant shows the pandemic won’t end until vaccines are readily available around the world.” 

Predictably, the ban on travel from South Africa, and several other African nations, has not been well received.  As noted by the Washington Examiner, “Biden’s decision to close the U.S. border to southern African visitors has been blasted by travel lobby groups and attracted hypocrisy complaints after he seemed to suggest former President Donald Trump’s travel bans were ‘xenophobic.'”  

White House press secretary Jen Psaki distanced Biden from his past comments…adamant the president ‘has not been critical’ of travel bans. But her remarks contrast with Biden’s previous statements and tweets.  Shortly after Trump announced his China travel ban in January 2020, Biden told voters in Iowa his opponent’s ‘record of hysterical xenophobia and fearmongering’ disqualified him to ‘lead our country through a global health emergency.’ Biden and his staffers then spent the next two months insisting that the then-candidate was referring to Trump’s history of alleged xenophobic conduct, including his Muslim travel ban, not the movement restrictions.  ‘A wall will not stop the coronavirus,’ Biden tweeted that March. ‘Banning all travel from Europe — or any other part of the world — will not stop it.'” 

Not to be out done in rushing forward with a panicked response, New York Governor Kathy Hochul (the latest “accidental governor” of that state, after Andrew Cuomo’s epic fall from grace) “signed an executive order…to postpone elective hospital surgeries — something that hasn’t been done since the worst of the initial coronavirus outbreak last year.  Hochul said she made the move to deal with staffing shortages and boost bed capacity amid an anticipated ‘spike’ in new cases and the emergence of the new Omicron variant in South Africa… ‘while the new Omicron variant has yet to be detected in New York State, it’s coming,’ Hochul said.” 

Was all of this panic good for the stock market?  According to Barrons, “Stock markets and oil prices plunged…over fears of a new coronavirus variant that scientists warn could be more infectious than the Delta strain and more resistant to vaccines, potentially dealing a heavy blow to the global economic recovery.  The Dow saw its worst drop of the year as Wall Street indices plunged and the dollar floundered… US crude oil prices tumbled more than 13 percent and the main international contract lost nearly 12 percent, which CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson attributed to ‘concerns that this new mutation could add to the pressure on demand’…Share prices of airlines and tourism groups dived, while there were big losses also for energy groups.” 

Trying to stem the rising tide of alarm his travel ban sparked, Biden addressed the nation, stating that the new variant was “a cause for concern, not a cause for panic,” and that “lockdowns to prevent the spread of the virus were off the table ‘for now.'”  That “for now” reassured absolutely no one.

But what of this new variant with a name like a villain out of Dr Who? Is it more deadly than the original Covid-19 virus?  More dangerous than the Delta variant?

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Apparently not.  According to “Dr. Angelique Coetzee, a practicing doctor for 30 years who chairs the South African Medical Association (SAMA)… ‘(Omicron) presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well…So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough. There are no prominent symptoms. Of those infected some are currently being treated at home.” 

Mild symptoms?  Slight cough?  Sore muscles, tiredness – for a day or two?  No loss of taste or smell?  No prominent symptoms?  

Does this illness sound worthy of dread?  Or is there another purpose in sounding the warning gong over this new variant?

According to Joel Mathis, writing for The Week, “Republican governors like Ron DeSantis in Florida and Greg Abbott in Texas have tried to block vaccine and mask mandates, while Fox News stars (and some Trumpist members of Congress) have spread conspiracy theories…. It has always been the case that unvaccinated people risk not only their own health but also the well-being of their neighbors — in part because they serve as potential breeding grounds for COVID variants. It’s probably not a coincidence that Omicron was first detected in South Africa, where barely more than a third of the population has received the jab. Every Tucker Carlson rant that encourages vaccine hesitancy makes the next deadly variant a bit more likely.” 

In fact, while asking the public not to panic, “President Joe Biden…once again urg(ed) Americans to get vaccinated, obtain a booster shot and wear masks in public places…’In the event — hopefully unlikely — that updated vaccinations or boosters are needed to respond to Omicron, we will accelerate their development and deployment with every available tool,” Biden said.” 

Further, “(c)iting the emergence of the omicron variant, the CDC (Center for Disease Control)…said ‘everyone ages 18 and older should get a booster shot” of the COVID vaccine if it has been at least six months since they completed the regimen of Pfizer or Moderna shots or two months after getting the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. 

No lockdowns – for now.  But get your vaccine, or your booster.  Wear your mask.  All to protect yourself from an illness that causes “mild symptoms” “for a day or two.”

Former Clinton Chief of Staff and former Mayor of Chicago Rahm Emanuel once famously said, “you never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.”    Seems you no longer need to wait for a genuine crisis.  For those who insist you continue wearing masks and get a booster shot every two months, crying wolf is opportunity enough.

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench on New York City.

Illustration: Pixabay

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The Coming Payday For Kyle Rittenhouse

For weeks this past November, much of the nation was glued to their TV screens, watching the trial of 18 year old Kyle Rittenhouse, accused of attempted murder and intentional murder for the shooting of one person, and the deaths of two others.  On November 19, 2021 a Wisconsin jury found Rittenhouse Not Guilty on all counts. 

For most cases, this would be the end of the line – the jury has spoken, the defendant is free, the courtroom is available for the next trial.  But the Rittenhouse case was not the average criminal matter.

“Before the verdict, left-wing coverage of the case was…vitriolic. MSNBC contributor Jason Johnson compared Rittenhouse to a ‘school shooter,’ while MSNBC’s John Heilemann said he is ‘arguably a domestic terrorist.’ MSNBC’s Joy Reid and Nicolle Wallace referred to him as a ‘vigilante,’ and Rep. Gwen Moore, D-Wis., used the ‘White supremacist’ term when talking about Rittenhouse during an appearance on CNN in March. President Biden lumped Rittenhouse in with White supremacists in a video shared last year on Twitter. ‘The View’ co-host Sunny Hostin said Rittenhouse murdered two people, and fellow co-host Whoopi Goldberg reiterated that sentiment…while discussing his acquittal. Far-left ‘Young Turks’ host Cenk Uygur called him ‘deeply racist’ and said he ‘murdered a couple of people.’  ‘A white, Trump-supporting, MAGA-loving Blue Lives Matter social media partisan, 17 years old, picks up a gun, drives from one state to another with the intent to shoot people,’ Heilemann said of Rittenhouse last year…”

Was Rittenhouse a “vigilante” who drove to another state “with the intent to shoot people?”  Not according to the evidence submitted to the jury;  

“Rittenhouse fatally shot Joseph Rosenbaum, 36, and Anthony Huber, 26, on Aug. 25, 2020, during rioting in Kenosha, Wis…(h)e also wounded Gaige Grosskreutz, 27.  The still photos of Rittenhouse walking on a street with an AR-15 rifle strapped to his back triggered widespread outrage…(when he testified) Rittenhouse described how he spent the day cleaning off graffiti from the high school and how he was asked by a business owner to protect his building. He also described how he brought a medical kit and gave aid to people injured during the rioting…(f)rom the outset, Rosenbaum, 36, was portrayed as a menacing, violent actor. A convicted child molester, he was described by various witnesses as threatening Rittenhouse and others… Grosskreutz fared little better. He admitted under cross-examination that Rittenhouse did not shoot him when he had his hands up after a confrontation. Instead, he admitted, Rittenhouse shot only after Grosskreutz pointed his own 9mm handgun at Rittenhouse’s head.  The jury heard how Rittenhouse was chased as Huber struck him repeatedly with a skateboard and someone else hit him in the head with a rock.” 

Was Rittenhouse a “white supremacist” and “deeply racist?”  According to David Marcus, writing for the New York Post, “He is white, and so are the three men he shot…(p)resumably, what the liberal media (and President Joe Biden, by the way) think makes him a ‘white supremacist’ is that he was protecting property during a riot that was backlash to a police shooting of a black man… To the left, systemic racism, as they call it, infects every aspect of our lives, all the time. So, of course Rittenhouse is a white supremacist because he didn’t think burning down a car dealership was an acceptable way to combat this ubiquitous racism.” 

 In particular, the comments by then Presidential candidate Joe Biden deserve further examination.  

On September 30, 2020, Biden posted this tweet; “‘There’s no other way to put it: the President of the United States refused to disavow white supremacists on the debate stage last night’…The remarks were accompanied by a video showing White nationalists marching in Charlottesville, Virginia, and other images. A voice-over of Fox News’ Chris Wallace is heard asking then-President Trump during a presidential debate if he was willing to condemn White supremacists and militia groups.  At one point in the video, an image of Rittenhouse shows him holding an AR-style rifle on the night he killed two protesters and wounded a third in Kenosha, Wisconsin, during unrest after the police shooting of Jacob Blake a month earlier.”

According to lawyer Todd McMurtry, who represented “Covington kid” Nicholas Sandmann in his settlement with CNN of a defamation lawsuit, “‘What you take from that tweet is that Kyle Rittenhouse was using his rifle and engaging in White supremacist misconduct so it’s actionable,’ McMurtry told Fox News.” 

In order to bring a case for defamation, “under U.S. law a plaintiff…must prove that (a) publisher failed to do something she was required to do. Depending on the circumstances, the plaintiff will either need to prove that the defendant acted negligently, if the plaintiff is a private figure, or with actual malice, if the plaintiff is a public figure or official. Celebrities, politicians, high-ranking or powerful government officials, and others with power in society are generally considered public figures/officials and are required to prove actual malice. Unlike these well-known and powerful individuals, your shy neighbor is likely to be a private figure who is only required to prove negligence if you publish something defamatory about her. Determining who is a public or private figure is not always easy. In some instances, the categories may overlap.” 

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Before his arrest and trial, Kyle Rittenhouse was unarguably a private person.  He did not seek the spotlight – instead, it was thrust upon him.  Thus, there is an argument available to him that he need only prove negligence to gain a recovery from the media sources who demonized him.  

On the other hand, once charged with a crime, particularly one as notorious as this, Rittenhouse could be viewed as a “limited purpose” public figure.  In the usual case, a “limited purpose” public figure is one who has ” thrust themselves to the forefront of particular controversies in order to influence the resolution of the issues involved.” (See) Gertz v. Robert Welch Inc., 418 U.S. 323 (U.S. 1974).   

As regards figures who become prominent through involvement in a current controversy, the law is unfortunately rather murky. In general, emphasis is placed not on whether the controversy is a subject of public interest, but rather: The depth of the person’s participation in the controversy; The amount of freedom he or she has in choosing to engage in the controversy in the first place (e.g., if they were forced into the public light). See Wolston v. Reader’s Digest Association, 443 U.S. 157 (1979);  Whether he has taken advantage of the media to advocate his cause. See Time, Inc. v. Firestone, 424 U.S. 448 (U.S. 1976).” 

 If deemed a public figure, limited or otherwise, Rittenhouse will have to show actual malice – that is, “the plaintiff must produce clear and convincing evidence that the defendant actually knew the information was false or entertained serious doubts as to the truth of his publication. In making this determination, a court will look for evidence of the defendant’s state of mind at the time of publication and will likely examine the steps he took in researching, editing, and fact checking his work…” 

This may not be so difficult a standard to meet, in this particular instance.  As reported by Fox News, “‘It’s just breathtaking, some of the things being said, being written…the misinformation continues to flow to this day,’ Guy Benson said…on ‘Outnumbered.’ ‘I saw example after example…of news articles from actual news organizations, supposedly with lawyers of editorial oversight, getting basic facts wrong about the case, about the trial, about the Jacob Blake police shooting from last summer that was sort of the triggering event of the rioting,’ Benson continued. ‘Details, of course, matter … we have larger truths being spewed all over the place that are, in fact, not truths at all. Falsehoods.'” 

Before the verdict, media outlets might have had a stronger argument regarding their lack of malice.  But once Rittenhouse was acquitted, after the facts of the incident were established before a jury, there can be no argument about the ability to check facts, or the state of mind of much of the left wing media.  “MSNBC, which was banned from the courtroom after it was accused of having one of its journalists following the jury’s bus, published an opinion piece headlined, ‘Kyle Rittenhouse trial was designed to protect white conservatives who kill.’ NBC News anchor Lester Holt suggested Rittenhouse was able to ‘provoke’ a violent situation and then successfully claim self-defense in the court of law.  NBC anchor Maria Shriver even tweeted that it was ‘stunning’ the jury let Rittenhouse walk and MSNBC’s Reid compared Rittenhouse to “slave catchers,” claiming both got away with inciting violence in the name of protecting property.” 

Should the Rittenhouse family go forward with litigation?  Let us look to the example of Nicholas Sandmann, mentioned earlier.  “Sandmann is the teenager who sued CNN and the Washington Post for $275 million and $250 million, respectively, for their portrayal of him in their reporting as a racist, following his interaction with a Native American man at the 2019 March for Life rally in Washington, D.C…(i)f Sandmann was successful in forcing a settlement from two of the most prominent media organizations in the country, why couldn’t Rittenhouse achieve the same result? A settlement is the more likely outcome when suits are filed, because media organizations loathe being the focus of bad press, bad PR.  Examples of the media portraying Rittenhouse as a white supremacist and declaring him guilty of murder are plentiful. The last thing any news organizations should want is to have those clips playing over and over on social media and elsewhere, which is what would happen if a high-profile suit moved forward.”   

Whether Kyle Rittenhouse decides to sue the media that vilified him, and continues to do so even after his acquittal, is entirely his own decision.  But this young man may decide to bring suit for the reasons outlined by Nicholas Sandmann in the Daily Mail –  “News shouldn’t be a scoreboard that constantly changes. News is about coverage that includes a statement of facts that does not need to be corrected. But, the liberal media doesn’t do this… if Kyle is prepared to take on another burden in his early life, with the acceptance that it might result in nothing, I answer, give it a shot and hold the media accountable. One of the saddening parts of this media onslaught is that it has taken young people like Kyle and myself to expose how corrupt the media really is.”

 Good Faith disclosure – the author contributed to the Kyle Rittenhouse Defense Fund – twice.

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in New York City.

Categories
Quick Analysis

Europe Edges Closer to War

Europe is closer to the brink of all-out combat than at any time since the end of the Second World War.

Russia has massed of 100,000 troops, well equipped as an invasion force, on its border with Ukraine.  Vladimir Putin’s military has successfully tested powerful new missiles aimed at intimidating the west from responding. The U.S. Defense Department  notes that there has been “…a significant Russian buildup and unusual concentration of forces in and around Ukraine.”

In February 2014, the Kremlin invaded and annexed Crimea, a part of Ukraine. The Obama-Biden Administration did not respond in any significant way. Putin was constrained from further adventurism during the Trump era, but now, with Biden in the White House, Moscow may be gambling that once again the U.S. will not take any significant action.

A takeover of Ukraine would be seen as a major step in re-establishing the Soviet Empire, representing a clear threat to the rest of Europe.

America’s NATO allies are clearly and deeply concerned.

Speaking at the Reuters Next conference NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that ”we all made it very clear that there will be a high price to pay” for any further Russian aggression against Ukraine. The NATO chief highlighted the increasingly bellicose rhetoric emanating from the Kremlin about Ukraine. “What we do know, is that not only has Russia increased its military presence closer to Ukraine’s borders, but … they’ve used military force against Ukraine before. They did that in 2014, when they invaded and illegally annexed Crimea, which is part of Ukraine, and they continue to support the armed separatists in Donbass in eastern Ukraine.”

The secretary general said NATO has called on Russia to de-escalate the situation. “We can hope for the best and call on Russia to not once again use military force against a sovereign, independent Ukraine, but we need to be prepared for the worst.”

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Stoltenberg scoffed at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assertion that Russia is only responding to Ukraine’s warlike action. “The whole idea that Ukraine represents a threat to Russia is absolutely wrong,” the secretary general said. “Ukraine has been attacked by Russia. Russia is occupying parts of Ukraine. Crimea is part of the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.”

In addition to its 2014 invasion when Russia invaded, occupied and illegally annexed Crimea,  it also provides military support to militant separatists in eastern Ukraine. “On top of that, we know that Russia is responsible for aggressive hybrid attacks [and] cyber attacks against Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said. “So, the whole idea that Ukraine is a threat to Russia is turning the world upside down. It is Russia that over many years now has been responsible for many types of aggressive actions against Ukraine.”

Individual NATO nations — including the United States — have provided aid to Ukraine in its struggle. NATO, as an alliance, has provided training to Ukrainian service members and advised Ukrainian officials on ways to improve their capabilities.

Stoltenberg called the Russian build-up “unexplained and unjustified,” and the NATO nations want the Russians to stop the provocations. “If they do the opposite, and actually decide to once again use force against Ukraine, then we have made it clear … during the NATO Foreign Minister meeting in Latvia today that Russia will then have to pay a high price; there will be serious consequences for Russia,” he said. “And that’s a clear message from NATO.”

Despite the clarity from NATO, the alliance is unlikely to act without the full support of the Biden Administration. The White House has not taken the steps that would signal preparations for a serious military engagement. The Biden defense budget actually cuts the Pentagon’s purchasing power by approximately three percent.

Photo: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg meets with his organization’s leaders. (NATO photo)


Categories
Quick Analysis

America’s Role in the Pacific

Excerpts from the remarks by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the Reagan National Defense Forum

America is a Pacific power. And we will always be.

And the Indo-Pacific is a region of great opportunity—and real challenges. One of those challenges is the emergence of an increasingly assertive and autocratic China. And that’s what I’d like to focus on today. 

Now, President Biden has said that we are in “stiff competition” with the People’s Republic of China. And as he’s made clear, Beijing is the only competitor “capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system.”

So we’ve got to be clear about the challenge of China, and about what we need to do to meet it. 

I’d like to focus today on the security dimensions of this competition. Because we’ve seen two decades of breakneck modernization by the People’s Liberation Army. 

And China’s military is on pace to become a peer competitor to the United States in Asia—and, eventually, around the world. China’s leaders are expanding their ability to project force and to establish a global network of military bases. 

Meanwhile, the PLA is rapidly improving many of its capabilities, including strike, air, missile-defense, and anti-submarine measures. And it’s increasingly focused on integrating its information, cyber, and space operations. 

So that means new areas of competition in space and cyberspace, where the norms of behavior aren’t well-established and the risks of escalation and miscalculation are high. 

Meanwhile, China is pouring state funds into key sectors, including quantum research. And Beijing is pursuing what its leaders call “indigenous innovation” to cut its reliance on imports. And all that is fueling swift advances in PRC technology, with significant implications for China’s military. 

China’s nuclear posture is changing as well. The PLA has been rapidly advancing its nuclear capabilities. And that includes growing its nuclear arsenal to at least a thousand warheads by 2030, and modernizing its delivery systems, and building a nascent nuclear triad.  

Now, we always assess not just capabilities but also intentions and actions. And the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party have been increasingly vocal about their dissatisfaction with the prevailing order—and about their aim of displacing America from its global leadership role. 

China’s President, Xi Jinping, regularly talks about “great changes unseen in the world in a century.” And he recently assured his fellow Party members that “time and momentum are on China’s side.” 

President Biden has been very clear about his concerns over China’s human-rights abuses and its bullying of other countries. And Beijing is misusing technology to advance its repressive agenda at home and exporting the tools of autocracy abroad. 

Now, I’ve repeatedly described China as the “pacing challenge” for the Department of Defense.
 
But I chose the word “challenge” carefully. We seek neither confrontation nor conflict. And as President Biden has repeatedly made clear, “we are not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs.”

So yes, we’re facing a formidable challenge. But America isn’t a country that fears competition. And we’re going to meet this one with confidence and resolve—not panic and pessimism. 

As President Reagan put it, “The future doesn’t belong to the faint-hearted; it belongs to the brave.”  

So we’re determined to deter aggression, and to prevent conflict, and to establish commonsense guardrails. And our new initiatives are part of a government-wide approach that draws on all tools of national power to meet the China challenge.

Now, this Department has been stepping up its efforts on China since the very first days of the Biden Administration. Our China Task Force sharpened the Department’s priorities and charted a path to greater focus and coordination. We made the Department’s largest-ever budget request for research, development, testing, and evaluation. And we’re investing in new capabilities that will make us more lethal from greater distances, and more capable of operating stealthy and unmanned platforms, and more resilient under the seas and in space and in cyberspace. 

We’re also pursuing a more distributed force posture in the Indo-Pacific—one that will help us bolster deterrence, and counter coercion, and operate forward with our trusted allies and partners.   

And we’re developing new concepts of operations that will bring the American way of war into the 21st century, working closely with our unparalleled global network of partners and allies.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will always stand ready to prevail in conflict—but America’s defense will always be rooted in our resolve to prevent conflict. 

Now, what I call “integrated deterrence” will be the cornerstone concept of the new National Defense Strategy that I will release early next year. And it means integrating our efforts across domains and across the spectrum of conflict to ensure that the U.S. military—in close cooperation with the rest of the U.S. government and our allies and partners—makes the folly and costs of aggression very clear. 

I’d like to focus today on two key elements of integrated deterrence, and those are partnership and innovation. 

First, we’re building on a lesson that I learned over four decades in uniform: In war and in peace, we’re always stronger when we work together with our friends. 

And that defines our approach to the China challenge. No, we’re not seeking an Asian version of NATO or trying to build an anti-China coalition. And we’re not asking countries to choose between the United States and China. 

Instead, we’re working to advance an international system that is free, and stable, and open. And we’re strengthening our peerless network of allies and partners with a shared commitment to a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific—a region where all countries are free from coercion, and where the rules that buttress stability and expand liberty are upheld. Together. 

As one Western leader said in 1989, “We know more clearly than ever before that we carry common burdens, face common problems, and must respond with common action.”

No, that wasn’t Ronald Reagan.

It was Margaret Thatcher. 

Now, my first trip as Secretary took me to Japan, South Korea, and India. A few months ago, I had the opportunity to visit with leaders in Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Yesterday, I was in Seoul. And early next year, I’m planning on heading back to Southeast Asia. 

And in every conversation with our partners, I hear the same thing again and again: a call for the United States to continue playing our stabilizing role in the Indo-Pacific. 

And make no mistake: we will. 

That means joint exercises, such as the recent six-country, multicarrier operation in Asia. It means deepening our R&D relationships with our regional allies and partners. It means encouraging the helpful and growing security role that our European allies are playing in the region. 

It also means strengthening the Indo-Pacific’s security architecture. That of course centers on our valued alliances and ASEAN—but it’s reinforced by a range of mechanisms, both old and new, including the Indo-Pacific Quad, and AUKUS, and the Five Eyes, and the triangle of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.  

Finally, we remain steadfast to our one-China policy and our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself while also maintaining our capacity to resist any resort to force that would jeopardize the security of the people of Taiwan. 

Now, we are working to bolster deterrence, and not seeking to change the status quo.  

As President Biden told President Xi last month, we share a profound global responsibility: “to ensure that the competition between our countries does not veer into conflict, whether intended or unintended.” And we’re going to stick to what President Biden called “simple, straightforward competition.”

Yes, we have real differences, both over interests and values. But the way that you manage them counts.

And we’re going to be open and candid with China’s leaders. As President Biden put it, we need to talk “honestly and directly to one another about our priorities and our intentions.” 

And big powers should be models of transparency and communication. So we’re actively seeking open lines of communication with China’s defense leaders—especially in a crisis. And both between our diplomats and our militaries, we’re taking steps to reduce risk and to prevent miscalculations. 

So we’re going to build on President Biden’s discussions with President Xi, and President Biden’s push to develop ways to manage strategic risk, and work to build strong, sensible guardrails around this competition. 

Now, I also want to focus on a second element of integrated deterrence. And it’s one that I’m especially looking forward to discussing with this audience—an audience with so many industry leaders, and entrepreneurs, and members of Congress. 

And it centers on America’s unique competitive advantage in innovation. 

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Now, integrated deterrence requires us to weave together cutting-edge technology, operational concepts, and state-of-the-art capabilities to seamlessly dissuade aggression in any form, domain, or theater.

And so that means that innovation lies at the heart of American security. 

Now, huge advances in AI, and edge computing, and nanotechnology are already underway in America—much of that right here in California. Nobody innovates better than the United States of America. But we can’t take that for granted. 

And at the Department of Defense, that means that serious changes to some of the ways that we’ve done business must be done.  

So let’s face it. For far too long, it’s been far too hard for innovators and entrepreneurs to work with the Department. And the barriers for entry into this effort to work with us in national security are often too steep—far too steep. 

On my recent travels, I’ve seen some outstanding examples of cutting-edge tech—including weeks ago in Bahrain, where I saw unmanned, solar-powered, Navy vessels that use AI to build a shared picture of the surrounding seas. 

But it often takes too long to get that kind of innovation to our warfighters. So let’s say some great California start-up develops a dazzling way to better integrate our capabilities. All too often, that company is going to struggle to take its idea from inception to prototype to adoption by the Department. 

We call this syndrome “the valley of death,” and I know that many of you in this room are painfully familiar with it. 

It’s bad enough that some companies get stuck in the “valley of death.” But some brilliant entrepreneurs and innovators don’t even want to try to cross it and work with us.

So the Department has to do better. 

Let me tell you about some steps that we’re taking to transform the way that we do business. 

First, we’re paving new pathways for American innovators and entrepreneurs to work with us. 

Consider the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency—better known as DARPA. It is legendary for scientific breakthroughs. But now, DARPA is also connecting its top research teams with corporate leaders and U.S. investors so that those teams can build successful businesses with the cutting-edge technologies that they develop. 

Second, we’re doubling down on our Small Business Innovation Research program—which, as it happens, was signed into law by President Reagan. This program helps fuel American firms to pursue R&D tailored to the Department’s unique tech requirements. And so far this year, we’ve awarded funds to more than 2,500 small businesses working on groundbreaking tech. 

We’re also doing more to integrate the Department’s innovators into tech hubs around the country where academics, and business leaders, and innovators thrive. So we recently opened defense innovation hubs in Seattle and Chicago, adding to other sites from Austin to Boston. 

The goal here is simple: to connect with new talent who will help us compete and win, on challenges from countering UAVs to responsibly leading the AI revolution.

And finally, we’re making it easier for companies to safely cross that “valley of death.” 

And I would like to commend the congressional leaders who have tackled this issue, and many of you are here today. But we need all of your help. And this is urgent. We can’t just keep funding programs and platforms that will be irrelevant. And we must streamline the acquisitions process—or we’ll tie one arm behind our backs. 

So the Department of Defense has established the Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve to let us quickly see if promising tech and prototypes can help our warfighters. It helps identify our most pressing capability gaps and makes funds available to test new technologies that could be game-changers. And it lets the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, the Space Force, and the Marine Corps try out innovative tech together at scale for the first time.

Because when we maintain our technological edge, we maintain our military edge.

And let me be clear: The United States of America has an advantage that no autocracy can match—our combination of free enterprise, free minds, and free people. 

Even in times of challenge, our democracy is a powerful engine for its own renewal. 

So I will put the American system up against any other. And I’ll do so with great pride and total confidence. 

No other country had the creativity to put such phenomenal computing power into our pockets. And no other nation has our astonishing universities, our grounding rule of law, and our restless spirit. 

So let me offer a call to action to American businesses, large and small… and to everyone in this room, including industry leaders. 

Join with us. Work with us. And help keep our country strong.

Let’s meet this moment. 

With all the innovation and ingenuity that America can muster.  

Because America’s strength in the world rests on its strength at home.   

Innovation in America is rooted in the creativity of an open society and the ingenuity of an open mind.

As President Reagan put it in 1988, “progress is not foreordained. The key is freedom—freedom of thought, freedom of information, freedom of communication.”

Ladies and gentlemen, in America, we don’t fear competition. As President Biden says, “In the competition against China and other nations of the 21st century, let’s show that American democracy and the American people can truly outcompete anyone.” 

This is America. 

We’re still a country that can do great things—from vaccinating people against a terrible virus to saving the lives of civilians in peril to building a new architecture for global security. 

Great powers today must shoulder great responsibilities. 

For the safety of our citizens. 

For the defense of our democracy. 

And for the security of our world. 

So we’re going to do our part. 

We’ll meet the challenges of the 21st century. But we’ll face them with fortitude, not fear. 

Democracy has always been our roadmap to success and security. 

And I wouldn’t trade it for anyone else’s.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

U.S. Faces Challenging International Situation

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee in consideration of his nomination to become vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Christopher Grady emphasized the challenges facing the United States and its allies. 

Adm. Grady said that competition in today’s extraordinarily complex and dynamic environment means that the United States and its allies face mounting challenges to the international rules-based order and national security in every domain, from the seabed to space to cyberspace, to the air and land domains. 

Strategic competition, he said, does not just involve conventional or nuclear threats, but also attacks below the threshold of armed conflict that have changed the character of that competition. 

“And so now more than ever, global integration is essential. And integrated deterrence in those multi-domains, leveraging all elements of national power across the whole of government and with our allies and partners is absolutely critical,” he said.

Grady noted four strengths of the Defense Department, which give it a competitive advantage:

America’s unrivaled industrial base, resulting from an innovative and open society; 
Many allies and partners with whom all are stronger together;
Service members who are always resolute, lethal and ready at a moment’s notice;
Families who support the force.
“I firmly believe that family readiness directly contributes to operational readiness. I’ve always said a stronger family means a stronger fleet and after 37 years of service, I can confidently say that it is because of our families and their service and their sacrifice that we continue to be the most powerful military the world has ever known,” he said.

The admiral answered questions that focused on several different topics, one of which was about the Joint Requirements Oversight Council, which is chaired by the vice chairman which reviews and validates all warfighting capabilities needed to win on the battlefield.

The JROC is one of the most important organizations in the Pentagon, he said.
Decisions that are made at the JROC are threat- and risk-based, informed by disciplined and analytical data, he said, noting that he will continue that rigorous process if confirmed.

The admiral told lawmakers that the department must be postured to address challenges from China and Russia, particularly with their growing nuclear arsenals and modernization efforts.

“We need to have that responsive, flexible and survivable triad if we’re going to meet the challenges to nuclear peer competitors,” he said.

Pentagon cites Taiwan as an alternative to oppressive China

In stark contrast to deepening authoritarianism and oppression in the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan has proven the possibilities of an alternative path to the Chinese Communist Party, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, told a Senate panel recently.

Ely Ratner testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the future of U.S. policy in Taiwan. 

“Unfortunately, although the PRC publicly advocates for peaceful unification with Taiwan, leaders in Beijing have never renounced the use of military aggression,” he told Senate members. “In fact, the is likely preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force while simultaneously attempting to deter, delay or deny third-party intervention on Taiwan’s behalf.”

The PRC threat to Taiwan, however, is not limited to invasion or blockade, he noted, adding the PLA is conducting a broader coercive campaign in the air and maritime domains around Taiwan. “These operations are destabilizing, intentionally provocative, and increase the likelihood of miscalculation,” Ratner said.

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Nevertheless, he added, although the PLA’s actions are real and dangerous, and PLA modernization is unlikely to abate, the PRC can still be deterred through a combination of Taiwan’s own defenses, its partnership with the United States and growing support from like-minded democracies. 

Through smart investments and key reforms, Taiwan can send a clear signal that its society and armed forces are committed and prepared to defend Taiwan, Ratner said, adding, “Without question, bolstering Taiwan self-defenses is an urgent task and an essential feature of deterrence.”

Tsai Ing-wen, the president of the Republic of China, has prioritized the development of asymmetric capabilities for Taiwan’s self-defense that are credible, resilient, mobile, distributed and cost-effective, he noted. “Asymmetric capabilities, however, are only one part of the deterrence equation. Taiwan must complement investments in these critical capabilities with equal focus on enhancing resilience, supporting civil-military integration and building a strategy that includes defense in depth.”

In addition to the provision of defense, arms and services to Taiwan, the Defense Department remains committed to maintaining the capacity of the United States to resist the resort to force or other forms of coercion that might jeopardize the security of the people on Taiwan, he said, noting, “and let me be clear that this is an absolute priority.”

The PRC is DOD’s pacing challenge and a Taiwan contingency is the pacing scenario, Ratner said. “We are modernizing our capabilities, updating U.S. force posture and developing new operational concepts accordingly. department’s efforts to deter PRC aggression and enhance Taiwan’s defenses will not be in isolation. Countries throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond recognize the PRC aggression against Taiwan would have serious consequences for their own interests in our increasingly voicing concerns about PRC coercion and potential aggression against Taiwan.

“As evidenced by a number of recent multilateral operations and exercises, the department is focused on enhancing our regional cooperation as a means of bolstering deterrence,” he said.

Photo: Admiral Grady (DoD photo)

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Quick Analysis

Showdown in Donbas

Winter is approaching in the Far North but the situation in the Donbas is a long way from frozen. Political posturing by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was blatant last week when he publicized confidential diplomatic messages recently exchanged between himself and his German and French counterparts concerning politics in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Russian-occupied Ukraine. This was the second set of leaked messages this year. Lavrov did so without any of his counterparts’ consent. “Russian diplomacy is testing its rogue-state practices on its Western diplomatic counterparts, and finds them malleable”, according to a recent analysis by Vladimir Socor, of the Jamestown Foundation. Representatives from Ukraine, France, and Germany are pushing for a Normandy-style framework to relaunch negotiations with Russia over the 2014-15 Minsk Agreements that sought an end to the Crimean war. 

The Minsk Protocol itself was written by members of the Trilateral Contact Group. It has three official members and includes representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Established about five years ago, it specifically was designed to settle the dispute over the Donbas area of Ukraine. Lavrov, however, has demanded a vast number of conditions be met before Russia is willing to agree to begin any discussion concerning changes to its strict interpretation of the document.

“President Vladimir Putin signaled his support for this action by taking the unusual step of attending the ministry’s senior officials’ meeting (Kollegium) the following day and reinforcing Lavrov’s arguments,” according to Socor. After the agreement between the Donetsk-Luhansk regions and Kiev was signed last year on July 22, 2020, Ukraine backed out as it decided the Protocol established de facto” equality between the Ukrainian military and Russia’s proxy forces. The protocol, says Socor, effectively legitimized the status of the Russian-backed Donetsk-Luhansk forces. If a new consensus to meet can be coordinated, the discussions are expected to center around political and security conditions for holding local elections in the region. 

Lavrov, however, is demanding a preset agenda, and predetermined outcome, before any meeting can take place. In the conveniently timed leak last week he refers to the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) February 17, 2015, resolution which he points out was by “unanimous vote.” Lavrov argues that the UNSC decision means that Ukraine cannot make any revisions to the agreement. Socor notes that President Obama helped push for a fast and unanimous vote on the original resolution. Lavrov now is suggesting the Biden Administration needs to continue to assist Russia in supporting the UNSC’s position although it is not formally part of the group. 

In the leaked messages, Lavrov’s German counterpart Heiko Maas, and the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, appear willing to meet Russia half-way but refused to support the idea that the conflict is an internal Russian issue. Socor points out that they also disagreed with “Moscow’s proposal to jointly endorse direct negotiations between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk in the Contact Group.” LE Drian and Maas view their version of the proposal as the one most likely to overcome a deadlock and resolve differences. Russia, in typical fashion, is demanding a total win. 

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So far, the relaunch of Minsk talks has failed, according to Michael Kimmage and Bruno Lete of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. That increases the likelihood of a major security risk going forward and possible renewed conflict in the region next year. The Minsk agreements that were to end the dispute six years ago have not resulted in a return to normalcy. Russian troops remain on the ground and there are numerous incidents of small outbreaks of fighting between the two sides. One of the points making this environment so dangerous is that the failed agreements falsely make it appear that Russia and the West have a serious diplomatic relationship. It is not, however, war by other means across a diplomatic negotiating table as the factions involved are not seeking compromise. 

First, the two western nations involved in the proposed talks are not directly connected to the issue. There is no trust on either side and the Lavrov leaks of this past week appear to be pushing the parties further apart. Finally, the failed talks have implications that will contribute to a global redistribution of power. Kimmage and Lete write that “The tensions between Ukraine and Russia are not some provincial dispute at the periphery of Europe. They have proven instrumental to a global realignment since 2014, felt from Syria to China to Venezuela.” Lete argues that if Ukraine pulls out now Russia will point to Kiev and say it was not interested in peace. The Donbas is the single largest point of contention between Russia and the West. It deserves and demands transatlantic attention from Washington before the situation escalates.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

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