Month: July 2021

One of the strategies employed by the United States that kept us safe for generations was our commitment to developing and deploying the most advanced military technologies. Doing so deterred other states, including Russia, from engaging in a hot war with the US as there was no possibility of winning when faced with America’s military might. For the six decades following WWII, we maintained a technological lead of three-to-four generations ahead of adversarial states, including Russia and China. In recent years, however, we have witnessed a decline in American military strength relative to that of other countries, although the US today still remains the dominant world power. 

New technologies, including cyber warfare, have eliminated the need to field an expensive, conventional army on a geographically defined battlefield to conduct war. Where the US was once the undisputed technological leader, it is now being challenged by poorer, less sophisticated nation-states willing to remove enormous resources from their struggling consumer economies to bolster AI and cyber warfare. Russian President Vladimir Putin recognizes the advantages of cyberattacks over conventional ones and has acted to advance his country’s cyber capabilities. According to political analysts in Washington, Putin views the US as Russia’s main opponent and cyberattacks as his preferred method of engagement with the US. It is not only cost effective for Moscow, it comes with a level of deniability that makes a response in kind difficult for those attacked.

The state source of a cyberattack often is cloaked and difficult to identify.  Sometimes, as often is the case with Russia, it is state-linked criminal organizations conducting the strike. While financially devastating, the attacks to date fail to meet the threshold set by Washington for a conventional military response. In reaction to a string of recent Russian cyberattacks, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters aboard Air Force One Wednesday that while Biden had not decided on a course of action for responding to the ransomware attack on software company Kaseya and other potential attacks last week, “there would be more to come.” She added, that “in terms of operational considerations, obviously it is not in our interest to preview those or preview our punches as I like to say. The president has a range of options should he determine to take action.” The statement appears to suggest that the President has yet to make a decision of not when or how, but if to respond to the Russian threat.

Cybersecurity experts have linked the most recent threat to the Russian-based “REvil” cyber criminal group. This is the same organization the FBI linked to the ransomware attack in May on JBS USA, the nation’s largest beef provider.  Last month President Biden during his first summit meeting with President Putin gave him a list of important American sites and requested Russia not attack them. Given the ongoing ransomware and other cyberattacks, Putin appears to have dismissed outright President Biden’s request to avoid critical American infrastructure. It is incredulous that in a few short decades the US devolved from a superpower able to field its military in two theaters of war simultaneously to a nation-state where its commander in chief hands over a list of critical infrastructure to the communist leader of an adversarial state and asks him not to attack. 

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When queried about the Biden-Putin policy discussion, Psaki said: “What they did discuss is the fact that the president reserves the right to respond against any ransomware networks and those that harbor them. That continues to be his policy.” Reserves the “right”? Since when must the United States ask another country for permission to respond to an attack? In recent weeks the US experienced the Colonial pipeline ransomware attack which shut down the fuel pipeline supplying the East coast, the Solarwinds cyberattack, attempts to access secure US government sites, and numerous strikes on the American private sector. Biden’s sanctions on Russia are not working. Earlier this week, Bloomberg News reported Russian government-linked hackers compromised the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) third party technology services provider, Synnex. Psaki said the Administration will investigate and “make an assessment” of this incident. 

Over the Fourth of July weekend, when organizations typically are lightly staffed for the holiday, private security analysts in Washington estimate that Russian-based hacked breached more than 200 companies in the United States alone. The cybercriminals did offer to provide a “key” to repair the breach in exchange for $70 million. This latest series of Russian attacks was so large that in a written statement the FBI said while it was investigating it, the scale is so large it “may make it so that we are unable to respond to each victim individually.” President Putin appears to have found a modus operandi that allows him to conduct a new form of Cold War in which he holds the upper hand with a feeble Biden Administration. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

America’s Space Development Agency (SDA), charged with building the National Defense Space Architecture (NDSA), has, for the first time, put satellites into orbit aboard a private company’s rocket.

SpaceX’s Transporter 2 commercial rocket has been authorized for this first-of-its-kind mission, designed to place five military spacecraft into orbit.  

The Space Development Agency was established in 2019 to protect the U.S. in an era when Russia and China are becoming increasingly threatening in orbit. China, in particular, is determined to replace the U.S. as the dominant power in space. While proclaiming its peaceful intentions, Beijing’s doctrine considers space a military domain, and it is investing heavily in space infrastructure designed to secure both economic and military advantages.

Earlier this year, Chief of Space Operations, Space Force Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond stated that The United States’ freedom to maneuver in space is a vital national interest that underpins national security, intelligence efforts, treaty verification and the economy.

The current SDA mission includes five SDA satellites. These include a pair of “Mandrake II” satellites; two “Laser Interconnect Networking Communications System,” or LINCS, satellites; and a satellite carrying the SDA’s Prototype On-orbit Experimental Testbed, or POET, experiment.

The SDA is working now on delivering the National Defense Space Architecture, which includes hundreds of satellites delivered in “tranches” every two years; each tranche will provide more capability.

The NDSA’s network of hundreds of satellites will provide beyond line-of-sight targeting for ground and maritime time-sensitive targets and the same for enemy missiles already in flight. The system will provide the ability to detect those targets, track them, calculate a fire control solution and then deliver that solution down to a weapons platform so the target can be destroyed.

It’s expected that the NDSA’s hundreds of satellites will communicate with one another using a network of lasers through optical communication terminals, or OCTs.

Two of each type of satellite will go into orbit, and the SDA will evaluate the ability of each OCT to operate in space.

“We’re trying to figure out the acquisition, the pointing and the tracking,” said a senior SDA official. “Can we make the connection; can we hold that connection; and can we exchange data between two terminals in space with that connection?”

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The official said the tests will put the satellites as far as 2,400 kilometers apart in order to test their ability to communicate via laser.

“We’re going to try to send data essentially from D.C. to Denver at the speed of light,” he said. “And that’s what we’re going to bring to the warfighter over the next several years.”

The SDA is hoping to build a “market” for the satellites it plans to put into orbit. It will buy a lot of those satellites and put them up regularly. Agency officials expect that a market for satellites would cause many vendors to compete regularly with their latest technology, and many would have compatible technologies.

The POET experiment will also go into space on June 25. While Mandrake II and LINCS will evaluate optical communication terminals, POET will be an experiment on how to process information in space so that time isn’t wasted sending it down to Earth to be processed.

The SDA official said POET is a “battle management capability” that will be in space.

“We’re going to actually load data and algorithms into that on orbit, and we’re going to test out data fusion in orbit for the warfighter,” the official said.

Having processing capacity on the ground means unnecessary latency in the process, which is unacceptable.

“The more processing that we can move into space, the better off we’re going to be,” he said. “POET is going to give us the first opportunity to actually do that… so we’re really looking forward to getting some data out of this.”

Photo: NASA

Politics over the past several years has been contentious.  It is about to get far worse.

The sinews that have held the nation together in the most divisive times are becoming unglued. This is not the result of two sides dueling due to sharply differing views.  It is, instead, a deliberate attempt by the radical Progressive movement to tear down long cherished institutions, the capitalist economy, and the personal and economic safety of the citizenry in order to rebuild the country in a Marxist paradigm.

The hard left’s goals could not have been achieved at the ballot box over the past seventy years, so a patient program to gain leadership positions in key professions was begun.  A German Communist student activist named Rudi Dutscke advocated a “long march through the institutions” in 1967 to establish the conditions where success could nevertheless be achieved. The strategy has proven successful. The fields of journalism, education, and the media were eventually dominated by those in sync with hard-left ideology, and they are now fully exercising their power.

Students are being taught, contrary to fact, that America is terrible nation. They are intentionally blinded to the reality that a free market economy provides more prosperity to a greater range of the population than socialism. Journalists, consciously or not, have a adopted theA Progressive tenet that truth is subservient to the pursuit of ideological goals. Hysteria-inducing charges of “Russian Collusion,” “Systemic Racism,” and imminent environmental collapse are diligently published. The entertainment media, heavily influenced by China, pushes this forward.  Legitimate questions concerning the misdeeds of leftist politicians, as well as sheer factual research, are ignored. Massive, long-term violent acts of rebellion against legitimate authority perpetuated by Black Lives Matter and Antifa are obscured.

The movement has entered a new phase, with the goal this time being a permanent hold on elective offices by suppressing contrary voices and disrupting the elective process. This is being done in a variety of ways.

There can be little dispute that voter registration rolls and ballot security rules across the nation are flawed in ways that benefit the Left.  A Pew Center on the States study found that 2,758,578 individuals were registered to vote in more than one state.  In addition, 12.7 million records nationwide are out of date and include over 1.8 million records for people who are no longer living.  Approximately 24 million registration records, or nearly 13% of the national total, are estimated to be inaccurate or no longer valid. Hans Spakovsky has revealed some districts with 10% phony registration addresses, and aliens ineligible to vote. The vehemence with which Progressive politicians attack legitimate border security is directly related to their bid, seen in a number of large cities to give them the vote. Relevant also is their fight against rational measures for appropriate identification before casting a ballot.

The worst is yet to come.

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The American Republic has been unusually successful, thanks to the genius of a Constitution that protects all while allowing the majority to govern. Numerous attempts to eliminate the Electoral College have been made, with the intention of disenfranchising more conservative, smaller states. The abuse of federal agencies, such as the Internal Revenue Service to harass groups such as the Tea Party, and the Department of Justice to attack right of center think tanks and political figures were begun under Obama, and have been renewed by Biden. These abuses will, at least for the next two years, escalate.

Progressive-led media will continue to use a variety of methods to attack opponents, including censorship against those who question their political actions. 

The language emanating from Leftist politicians is deeply troubling. The use of the phrase “seditionist” is no longer restricted to January 6 participants, but to all who don’t follow their beliefs. Recently, White House adoption of the phrase “Climate Emergency” appears to be a code phrase leading to a justification of imposing restrictions on the free market.

Will America weather this storm?

Illustration: Pixabay

Much of the heated debate flaming across the nation is not political. It is, instead, indicative of a vast cultural divide that no single election can properly address or totally heal.

Covid exposed some of the rift that has developed. In an effort to stop the spread, both left and right acknowledged that certain nonessential activities needed to be avoided. They defined “essential” differently, however, based on their cultural inclinations.

With a rather unseemly haste, places of worship were closed. Even after the worst of the pandemic was over, many on the left were reluctant to open up churches and synagogues.  What the nation’s Founders considered vital, Leftists considered trivial. The same Progressives who considered gatherings in houses of worship a threat saw no problem with mass demonstrations with participants standing side by side in the hundreds completely acceptable. Another facet was seen recently. While bending to popular will and maintaining the tradition of a National Day of Prayer, Biden’s proclamation managed to omit all mention of God.

The most basic underlying concepts that formed the United States have been openly abandoned by many. The new nation was unique in that it centered around the merits, rights, and responsibilities, of the individual. It didn’t matter whether one’s parents were royalty or vagrants; a person was to be judged on what he or she did. With the same reasoning, an individual was not to be rewarded or punished for what his or her ancestors did.

That idea is the very antithesis of current Progressive ideology, which views people are cogs in a larger wheel of race or other groupings.  Concepts such as “reparations” are based on the deeds of generations past, not those currently in existence. Replacing the classic American idea of equality with “equity” is part of that theme.

There is a tie-in between the Left’s disdain of judging individuals on their own merits and the rejection of the Judeo-Christian ethic, which recognizes the unique value of each soul. It’s a trend that took root in the horrific totalitarian regimes of the past century. Communism, which was the basis of the USSR, envisioned a “New Soviet Man” who only saw himself as a part of a larger collective. Germany’s National Socialism reduced individual humans to nothing more than part of racial groupings.

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The rejection of individualism has an economic component. Referring to those who built businesses, Barack Obama, during his presidency, told those hard-working entrepreneurs that “They didn’t build that,” that somehow the countless hours they worked and sacrifices they made had no value.

The essential belief in equality under the law has been abandoned by the Left. The felonies committed by those with the correct Progressive ideological leanings appear to have a “get out of jail free” card. The current push to politicize the U.S. Supreme Court is part of that.

It’s not just that Americans are divided and arguing.  That’s been a constant. Honest disagreement is not necessarily unhealthy if core principles are shared.  But those core principles are no longer in vogue for too many.  Even during the most tumultuous eras, recognition of the right to express one’s opinion kept the nation together. But the wholescale attack on the First Amendment that began in universities and spread to the larger population as well as corporate leadership has dramatically fouled that safety net.

If the assault came exclusively from an authoritarian-minded group of Washington politicians, corrective measures could be taken with far more ease than the culture-wide phenomenon of “cancelling” now dominating too much of society.

Elections will not resolve the challenge. Americans, as individuals, need to reassess whether the basic cultural, economic, and Constitutional principles that built the most successful society on Earth are worth preserving.

US PASSPORTS

As of this week, a State Department press official Jalina Porter announced, American citizens will be able to choose if they feel are a man or woman and self-designate their gender on their passport. A State Department official said this “announcement is another example of our leadership.” Secretary of State Tony Blinken confirmed the US “will no longer require medical certification if an applicant’s self-selected gender does not match the gender on their other citizenship or identity documents.”

AFGHANISTAN

In response to a question by a reporter this week, State Department Spokesman Ned Price said that the US is not diminishing its relationship, or abandoning Afghanistan, because Washington will have a diplomatic relationship with the country. “Obviously, that relationship will look different with the military withdrawal underway,” he added. Last month, The Diplomat, reported that “The fear of potential aggravation of the political situation and worsening of security in Afghanistan, as well as the expansion of instability, is a matter of great regional concern. The power struggle between interest groups and political factions inside the Afghan government, as well the Taliban’s growing power, has the definite potential to change the U.S.-secured power equilibrium in Afghanistan.” At this point no one is certain what will occur as external forces seek to fill the power vacuum when US forces are fully withdrawn by September 11. It may lead to further instability in the region. Currently it is estimated that over 70,000 Afghan citizens who aided the US during the war, along with their families, may be eligible to come to the US due to ongoing security concerns for their safety. The State Department said about 9,000 are in the initial stage of the process pending applicant action.

CHINA

July 1 marked the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. President Xi Jinping gave a speech in which he said that anyone “who dares oppose China will have their heads bashed bloody against the great wall….” When asked if the US had any pushback, Price said: “… we’re aware that the Chinese Communist Party commemorated its 100th anniversary today.  We’re aware of President Xi’s remarks.  We’ve taken note on them, but we’re not going to comment on the specifics.  I think this administration, over the course of several months, has been very clear about our impressions of the CCP in general, but I don’t have a specific response for you on President Xi’s remarks today. To date, the Biden Administration appears to lack follow through on actions. 

In response to reports that China is building over 100 new missile silos, Price said: “It reinforces the importance of pursuing practical measures to reduce nuclear risks.” Price added: “We encourage Beijing to engage with us on practical measures to reduce the risks of destabilizing arms races, potential – potentially destabilizing tensions. Given that earlier this year China refused senior US military officials’ requests to meet, this statement most likely will not change the level of danger posed by the silos or force China into talks.

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NORTH KOREA

Considering the challenging global issues faced by the United States and western democracies, it was interesting that in a shortened press briefing the State Department Spokesman took time to answer questions about the impact of North Korean President Kim Jong-un’s diet.

HONG KONG

The Deputy Assistant of State for East Asian Affairs,  Jonathan Fritz, when asked about the situation in Hong Kong said that: “We hope Beijing will realize the truth: Hong Kongers aren’t the problem….” He pointed out that if Beijing doesn’t realize this the residents of Hong Kong will be “forced to flee.” Fritz added that he was “inspired to see the resilience of Hong Kongers in their pursuit of what the PRC promised them.”  

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Anyone “who dares oppose China will have their heads bashed bloody against the great wall…,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a July 1 speech he made celebrating the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The world is presenting China with a significant opportunity, according to Xi. Beijing, he says, plans to transform the international rules-based system into one more in line with China’s image of how the system should work. He believes it is Beijing that will determine and control the international political, military, and economic environment within the next few decades. Xi delivered his lightly veiled threats to the West in front of 70,000 people in Beijing. Under a Chinese-led global system, human rights abuses like those Beijing has committed against its Tibetan, Uighur, and Muslim minorities in western China, will be transformed into issues he says will be subordinated to the desires of the all-powerful Chinese state. 

In search of profit many major Western companies like Nike and Under Armour, along with other manufacturers have overlooked the atrocities committed by the CCP to enable them to continue sourcing products in China to make bigger profits. Can the world afford to ignore a quickly rising China any longer or the potential threat the communist power poses as it extends its power further around the globe in the coming 100 years? Looking at the first 100 tells us what the CCP was capable of doing to its own population. It gives us insight into what the future might hold for those nations hostile to a Chinese-led system. 

Tens of millions were murdered, tortured, and hundreds of millions had their lives destroyed by the CCP. Under Mao alone millions more “counter‐​revolutionaries” and “landlords” were murdered while additional millions ended up in forced labor camps. The inhumanity is hard to reconcile; the numbers too large to envision. Imagine wiping out the entire population of New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and then more than doubling the number. The CCP’s “one child” family planning policies were so severe that China can no longer reproduce its own population. Many villages today are left entirely void of women in their child-bearing years.

To understand how draconian the CCP can be toward its own people one only has to look at how it administered family planning policies. Under Chinese law, a child is not considered a human being until it is fully emerged from the mother and the cord is cut. This definition is important as serves to legalize infanticide. In the 1980’s, Chinese cities and counties were given birth quotas to enforce each day. In several county hospitals in Inner Mongolia, for example, the quota was met regularly employing “post-birth abortion.” Women with valid permits allowing them to get pregnant within a specified 12-month period still might find themselves having a forced “post-birth” abortion if they went into labor after the daily quota was met. 

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The method used, to ensure compliance with Chinese law, was to inject formaldehyde into the brain of the child as it crowned but before the cutting of the cord at birth. The child was born convulsing and soon died. After the cord was cut, the “abortion” would be deemed complete, and the quota limit met. The Reagan Administration opposed the CCP’s draconian policy and refused to contribute US government funds toward the United Nation’s PL-480 Food for Peace program. The formaldehyde use was purchased by China with the UN’s Food for Peace funds under its “family planning” program. Over the years the Western media has failed to cover some of the most horrific crimes against humanity committed by China. 

Today, China’s Muslim Uighur minority are being persecuted and it is suspected that millions are being held against their will in forced labor camps that the CCP identifies as voluntary “re-education centers.” China’s technology today often equals or surpasses that of the advanced nations in the West. Given the CCP’s attitude toward human life, how dangerous will it be to the world in the future? No matter how scary the worst-case scenario, free nations can no longer ignore China’s historical behavior. To do so risks becoming subject to a communist nation that holds little regard for human life or Western values. 

Photo: Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, delivers an important speech at a ceremony marking the centenary of the CPC in Beijing, capital of China, July 1, 2021. (Xinhua/Ju Peng)

Vladimir Putin is playing Russian roulette with the Arctic’s fragile ecosystem while the world is focused on other challenges. Russia assumed the rotational leadership of the Arctic Council on May 17 this year, announcing that climate change was at the top of its lists of concerns. It is, however, little more than rhetoric. Only six days prior, the Russian Arctic endured yet another ecological disaster involving an oil spill. This one occurred in the northern Komi Republic. According to a report by the Jamestown Foundation, parts of the Kolva River became heavily contaminated with oil from the Osha hydrocarbon deposit. “Right from the start, the authorities’ response to the ecological disaster was marked by a lack of transparency and, apparently, lies from local officials,” according to Jamestown’s Paul Goble. 

This is not the only instance in which Russian negligence cause an ecological disaster. The Ob River in the Yamal peninsula, in April was contaminated in several places with more than 56 tons of spilled oil products as well as pollution from of an earlier massive wildfire. On May 17, 3,000 gallons of oil were spilled in the Russian Arctic town of Dudinka. Arctic sea animals near the Kamchatka peninsula in the east have been killed and burned by chemicals recently from a large Russian, military polygon that stockpiles up to 300 tons of toxic materials. The ecological damage incurred by the Russian Arctic and Far East is not episodic: it is of a long-running systemic nature, with roots in the pre-1991 period, according to Goble.

Russia is a threat to the region and now, with its assumption as head of the Arctic Council, additional environmental and security issues are expected to arise. An October 2020 report from terra-ecology.ru said that in 2019, out of 17,000 accidents in Russia’s fuel-energy sector, more than 10,500 involved oil facilities, the majority of which are located in the High North. On average that equates to an ecological accident every thirty minutes. Russia’s northern strategy is to convince the other Arctic states to sign onto its vision for a “green” agenda for the Arctic Council. It is not a coincidence that Moscow’s version accepts virtually all of Russia’s expansive geographic and security claims in the high north. 

Putin is signaling that he plans an activist role while Russia leads the Council during the next three years, according to political analysts in Washington. He intends to use this window of opportunity to coerce the Council to promote Russian interests, including the exploitation of mineral-rich Greenland. Should the island be willing to lean toward Russia it would be a major geopolitical victory over the United States and a loss for NATO. Russia would gain access to valuable minerals and solidify it military presence in the region. Just a decade ago, Russian commentator Artur Indzhiyev, wrote that  “When the population of Greenland starts pursuing a more independent policy, it will rid itself of American military bases… What we need to do is to help them in their struggle for independence… Russia should understand one thing—the fight against NATO’s expansion should not be fought on our borders but on the territory of the Alliance.” Today we are hearing from political analysts in Moscow who are talking openly about the recent elections in Greenland, in which its voters decided to elect politicians who are more interested in getting involved in discussions concerning independence from Denmark. 

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The Russian delegation to the Arctic council is welcoming Greenland’s new found independent voice and hoping to move it into the Russian column. Goble says that this does three things for Moscow. First, by reducing Danish influence on the island it opens new avenues for Russian mineral resource development. Second, it raises the question about the continuing local presence of US-NATO bases, even though Nuuk so far has denied discussing any change in their status. Finally, it could provide Putin with another ally in the Arctic when it comes to its claims to large portions of the seabed. To counter Russia’s moves, Washington opened a consulate in Greenland in April and is offering English-language lessons through a $12 million USAID development program. Is it too little, too late? Russia’s undersea shelf provides the basis for claims to 1.2 million square kilometers of the Arctic surface. It appears Greenland is set to become another location for great power rivalry as Russia, the US and China all vie for influence in the strategic and mineral recourse-rich region.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay