Month: June 2016

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Quick Analysis

Containing China

Battle lines between China and its Asian/Pacific neighbors including the U.S. were sharply drawn at the Shangri-La dialogue heldin Singapore. Thirty nations attended the conference, were Key flashpoints included China’s expansionist claims to control of regional islands, and Beijing’s refusal to abide by international law in its actions.

The regular gathering, sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) provides a forum for defense officials to gather and discuss significant topics. According to IISS senior fellow Alexander Neill, Sino-US tensions were a key element of this year’s gathering. In advance of the event, “US President Barack Obama made some rather pointed remarks directed towards Beijing, noting that America would not tolerate China’s ‘bullying’ tactics. That concept was the key motivation in the White House ending the 50 year arms embargo against Vietnam, now seen as an ally in the effort to contain Beijing.”

Much of the controversy arises from Beijing and Taiwan’s adherence to a policy known as the “Nine Dash Line,” essentially an arbitrary demarcation line on maps that assert Chinese control of vast oceanic areas. Neither other regional nations nor international law agree with the claim. The Brookings Institute has previously reported that Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Danny Russel, in testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs stated, “Under international law, maritime claims in the South China Sea must be derived from land features. Any use of the ‘nine-dash line’ by China to claim maritime rights not based on claimed land features would be inconsistent with international law.”

U.S. concern over Chinese expansion was a key factor in President Obama’s ending the 50 year arms sales restriction against Vietnam, now seen as an important ally in the effort to contain Beijing. The U.S. will work with Hanoi to provide maritime security.

Widespread concern over China’s territorial claims, its aggressive moves which include expanding and militarizing small islands and its incursion into the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone have fostered discussions of establishing a NATO-like alliance in the area.
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According to U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, “Now, unlike elsewhere in the world, peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific has never been managed by a region-wide, formal structure comparable to NATO in Europe.  That’s made sense for this region, with its unique history, geography, and politics, and where bilateral relationships have long served as the bedrock of regional security. And yet, as the region continues to change, and becomes more interconnected politically and economically, the region’s militaries are also coming together in new ways.  They’re building connections for a common purpose: upholding the security and stability critical to a principled and prosperous future. And these connections are now helping our countries plan together, exercise and train together, and operate together, more effectively and efficiently than ever before… this growing Asia-Pacific security network includes but is more than some extension of existing alliances. It weaves everyone’s relationships together … to help all of us do more, over greater distances, with greater economy of effort…This is a principled security network … By expanding the reach of all and by responsibly sharing the security burden, this principled network represents the next wave in Asia-Pacific security…even as the United States counters Russian aggression and coercion in Europe…”

Not unexpectedly, China’s response has been harsh. Paul McLeary and Adam Rawnseley, writing for Foreign Policy reported that Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo, deputy chief of the Chinese military’s Joint Staff  Department  flatly rejected Defense Secretary Carter’s repeated assertion that Beijing’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea were isolating it from the world community.“We were not isolated in the past, we are not isolated now, and we will not be isolated in the future”…He added that many countries maintain a ‘Cold War mentality’ when dealing with China, saying they may only “end up isolating themselves.” The comments were a direct response to Carter’s accusation last month that China was building “a Great Wall of self-isolation” in the South China Sea. Carter repeated the line in Singapore. “We do not make trouble, but we have no fear of trouble,” Admiral Sun Jianguo said.

Secretary Carter pledged that the U.S. would remain the guarantor of regional security in the coming decades. To do so, he said, “the Defense Department is continuing to send its best people – including some of those new Naval officers and Marines …and also its most advanced capabilities to the Asia-Pacific.  That includes F-22 and F-35 stealth fighter jets, P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, continuous deployments of B-2 and B-52 bombers, and our newest surface warfare ships. The Defense Department is also investing in new capabilities critical to the rebalance.  We’re growing the number of surface ships [some dispute whether the shrunken U.S. Navy is, in fact, starting to rebuild] and making each of them more capable, and we’re investing in Virginia-class submarines, new undersea drones, the new B-21 Long-Range Strike Bomber, as well as in areas like cyber, and electronic warfare, and space.”

Whether the U.S. will actually fulfill that pledge remains questionable, as sharp Defense budget cuts and the growing need for a stronger American military presence in Europe and the Middle East limit its abilities in the Asian-Pacific region.  During his tenure in office, President Obama formally ended the policy of having armed forces capable of fighting two region wars simultaneously.

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Clinton: Unfit for the White House?

The hyper-partisan environment of presidential politics is preventing an open discussion of the Clinton dilemma.

When the Clinton ethics question is raised, allies in politics and the media, well trained thanks to the unending trail of abuses of the public trust, respond vehemently, frequently alleging bias against female candidates or a fictional “vast right wing conspiracy,” intentionally ignoring the fact that Clintonian practices are sufficiently controversial to engender spontaneous opposition.

The reality is that despite the good intentions of their many supporters, the history of the Clintons is less a political movement than a criminal enterprise, in which an objective review of the records leads to a legitimate concern that official favors have been traded for personal enrichment, in a manner that may have seriously harmed the United States.

The Office of Inspector General’s Report on former Secretary Clinton’s emails  noted that “…Secretary Clinton should have preserved any Federal records she created and received on her personal account by printing and filing those records with the related files in the Office of the Secretary. At a minimum, Secretary Clinton should have surrendered all emails dealing with Department business before leaving government service and, because she did not do so, she did not comply with the Department’s policies that were implemented in accordance with the Federal Records Act…”

This, of course, is just one part of the Clinton email scandal—probably, the lesser part.  The remaining question is what is in the emails themselves, particularly those that have not been made public

For most candidates, the OIG analysis would be harmful enough. Added to the long list of Hillary Clinton’s ethical violations and consistent record of devastating Obama/Clinton policy failures as secretary of state, (the failed reset with Russia, Benghazi, ISIS, the Russian/Chinese/Iranian/North Korean nuclear arms increases, alienation of key US allies, etc.) however, it raises the very serious question of how and why she will be the candidate of a major political party for President of the United States. Indeed, some members of her own party have raised that issue, even though her only current opponent is an aged socialist with only a limited chance of winning the general election, even against a candidate as unusual as Donald Trump.

The depth of opposition from many committed Democrats comes from the reality that the Clintons are more openly for sale than any other politicians at their high level. The New York Post recently noted that “Mandatory financial disclosures released this month show that, in just the two years from April 2013 to March 2015, the former first lady, senator and secretary of state collected $21,667,000 in “speaking fees,” not to mention the cool $5 mil she corralled as an advance for her 2014 flop book, ‘Hard Choices.’ Throw in the additional $26,630,000 her ex-president husband hoovered up in personal-appearance “honoraria…”
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Other ex-holders of high political office have earned large speaking fees, as well. But they did so after having left the political arena, and in a manner in which no real suspicion was raised that the acceptance of dollars was such a direct quid-pro-quo. Hillary’s solicitation of funds from foreign governments for the Clinton Foundation, a source of personal enrichment for the Clintons, while she was serving as Secretary of State, was a blatant violation of the public trust.

Also during her tenure as Secretary of State, Judicial Watch reports billions of dollars of funds were somehow “misplaced.”

The history of Clinton scandals is in a class by itself, not only for the amounts of dollars raised, but for the potential harm not only to the public trust but to the nation as a whole.  Serious questions still remain about the relationship of China’s efforts to make illegal campaign contributions during the Bill Clinton presidency, and President Clinton’s extraordinary act of allowing the sale of a supercomputer to China.

The China issue continues.  Time Magazine has just reported that “Wang Wenliang, [is] a Chinese national with U.S. permanent residency… An American company controlled by Wang made a $60,000 contribution to [Virginia Governor] McAuliffe’s campaign [McAuliffe is a very close friend of the Clintons, who recently gave the vote to over a half million convicted felons in an effort to insure that Clinton carries the state in November] three weeks before the fundraiser. Less than a month later, a separate Wang company pledged $500,000 to the Clinton Foundation, the first of several donations that eventually totaled $2 million.

Perhaps the most devastating ethical question surrounding Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State concerns the transfer of uranium, the substance required for the construction of nuclear weapons, to Russia. The New York Times, not known for being anti-Clinton, reported: “the Russian atomic energy agency, Rosatom, had taken over a Canadian company with uranium-mining stakes stretching from Central Asia to the American West. The deal made Rosatom one of the world’s largest uranium producers and brought Mr. Putin closer to his goal of controlling much of the global uranium supply chain…As the Russians gradually assumed control … in three separate transactions from 2009 to 2013…a flow of cash made its way to the Clinton Foundation. Uranium One’s chairman used his family foundation to make four donations totaling $2.35 million. Those contributions were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons…And shortly after the Russians announced their intention to acquire a majority stake in Uranium One, Mr. Clinton received $500,000 for a Moscow speech from a Russian investment bank with links to the Kremlin.”

The Clintons protest that the complaints are just part of the usual partisan smear campaign. But their long and unique history, their close association with numerous ethical issues too numerous to repeat here, and the unprecedented nature of the involvement of foreign governments raises substantial issues about the inherent lack of appropriateness of another Clinton presidency.

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U.S. Employment Downturn continues

The economic news continues to deteriorate, as the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)  report reveals that job creation is at a bare minimum level. But the overall lack of job creation is only part of the problem. Some of the most important jobs for the U.S. middle class are actually shrinking in number, the labor participation rate continues to decline to dangerously low levels, and the number of those who could only find part time work has grown larger.

According to the BLS release, “nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+38,000.) Employment increased in health care. Mining continued to lose jobs…In May, the civilian labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.6 percent.  The rate has declined by 0.4 percentage point over the past 2 months…The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 468,000 to 6.4 million in May, after showing little movement since November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. In May, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier….These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 538,000 discouraged workers in May, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in May had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.”

The raw numbers are discouraging, but an examination of the types of jobs lost and the few gained provides even more cause for concern.

The types of jobs that could provide a boost to the general economy both providing good pay and by reducing the continuous and massive trade deficit have continued to decline in number.

In May, mining employment continued to decline, losing 10,000 positions. The BLS notes that “Since reaching a peak in September 2014, mining has lost 207,000 jobs. Support activities for mining accounted for three-fourths of the jobs lost during this period, including 6,000 in May.”

Similar problems can be seen in manufacturing. Employment in durable goods declined by 18,000 in May, with job losses of 7,000 in machinery and 3,000 in furniture and related products.
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Masking the downturn in employment are some gains in health care, which added 46,000 jobs in May, with increases occurring in ambulatory health care services (24,000), hospitals (17,000), and nursing care facilities (5,000). Over the year, health care employment has increased by 487,000.

The BLS also downgraded previously reported employment numbers. The increase in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was reduced from 208,000 To 186,000, and the change for April was reduced from 160,000 to +23,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 59,000 less than previously reported.

A record 94,708,000 prospective workers are not currently in the workforce (a labor participation rate drop to 62.6%.)  Overall, this is the worst jobs report since September of 2010. The jobs creation number over the past three months is only 347,000, the worst stretch since 2012, and many of those are not the most desirable positions.

The prospects for future gains remain bleak. An excessively high regulatory regime, combined with anti-job policies such as the President’s Clean Power Plan and America’s uncompetitive corporate tax rate point to a continuation and perhaps a worsening of the current doldrums.

The poor numbers cannot be attributed to the 2007 recession; they indicate an economy that is entering a wholly new and separate downturn, a result of failed economic policies.

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Ignoring Catastrophe

Russian and Chinese activities correspond precisely to those that would be undertaken in preparation for the initiation of a major war. The two nations have dramatically and rapidly upgraded their militaries, trained together, expanded their overseas bases, insured access to raw materials, and conducted probing operations to test the responses of their foes.

President Obama appears oblivious, as does his two Democrat would-be successors. All three advocate continuing the addiction to transferring funds from defense to vote-buying social welfare programs. They continue to alienate U.S. allies. They adhere to tax and environmental policies that deteriorate the U.S. defense industrial base, and refuse to acknowledge the dramatic increase in the armaments and aggressive actions of Moscow and Beijing.

The deterioration of both the current arsenal of the U.S. armed forces, as well as funding for future replacements, is not limited to weapons.  Oval Office policies which have encouraged the retirement or outright dismissal of experienced military personnel play a large role in the downward trajectory of America’s defense infrastructure.

Affordable and common-sense precautions, such as protecting key assets from electromagnetic pulse destruction, have not been taken. It has been estimated that it would cost just a few billion dollars to accomplish this, yet it was wholly excluded from Mr. Obama’s $800 billion “stimulus” package.

The mass media’s lack of interest in military matters combined with its ideological inclination to favor domestic programs over national security prevents the citizenry from getting a clear picture of how hazardous the current global situation truly is.

There are salient facts that rarely get discussed:

For the first time in history, Russia has a lead in strategic nuclear weapons, a result of the 2009 New Start Treaty. Moscow also possesses a ten-to-one lead in tactical atomic weapons. China’s known nuclear force is powerful, and intelligence sources believe that many more weapons may have been built, deployed, and hidden in a vast network of tunnels. Both are more modern than America’s increasingly obsolete deterrent. Added together, the U.S. is overmatched.

China already has more submarines than the United States, and by 2020, its navy will be larger than its American counterpart. The lead will not be merely quantitative.  The ships Beijing is building are every bit as capable as any in the world. With the loss of senior personnel, the American “experience advantage” is rapidly becoming ancient history. China has also developed an extraordinarily advanced shore to ship missile that dramatically changes the dynamic in sea power. Basing that missile both on mainland China and on the new island it has constructed in the South China Sea will establish regional dominance.

Russia, too, has engaged in a significant naval buildup, and has taken steps to provide its ready-for-war fleet with expanded basing infrastructure. Moscow’s actions in invading the Ukraine to insure control of its Black Sea naval base, its support of Syria’s Assad to protect its Tartus naval base, its extraordinary Arctic Sea buildup, and its return to Cuba are all clear examples.

The combined actions of the two nations along with the reduced size of the American Navy, which has shrunk from 600 ships to less than 274, present a potentially catastrophic challenge.
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The U.S. defense strategy is heavily invested in space, far more so than any potential adversary. However, China has developed and demonstrated the capability of destroying American satellites. If they are destroyed, replacement will not be easy.  Remember, the U.S. is dependent on Russian rocket engines to put many payloads in orbit.  In the conflict that may soon come, the Pentagon will rapidly become deaf and blind.

The 21st Century presents a far different world than that of the 1940’s.  The oceans that insulated the U.S. and gave it time to build an armed force sufficient to counter any foes no longer provide a barrier.

The once-mighty American industrial base has been reduced to a shadow of itself, and lacks the capability to rapidly build quantities of weapons as it did in the aftermath of Pearl Harbor.  Just one example: there is only one plant in the entire U.S. that can manufacture tanks—and President Obama has repeatedly attempted to put it out of business.  In what can only be described as an act of insanity, some U.S. weapons systems depend on China for key components.  The military Washington has on hand is the only force it will have to depend on in the event of hostilities.

While Russia and China have fielded advanced new weapons systems on land, air, and sea, many of the Pentagon’s advanced weapons programs have been cut back, delayed, or eliminated.

The United States no longer is secure within its own hemisphere.  The Russian Navy has started to return to Cuba, and its nuclear bombers are being refueled in Nicaragua. China has infrastructure on both sides of the Panama Canal. Both Moscow and Beijing have established military-to-military ties with several Latin American and Caribbean nations.

For over half a century, the West had been secure in the knowledge that the U.S.-NATO alliance was the strongest military force on the planet.  That is no longer the case. The U.S. has decreased its conventional military strength and has failed to modernize its nuclear weapons, but Europe continues to act as if nothing has changed.  Since the end of the Second World War, it has largely depended on America for the bulk of its defense, and still does so. Freed of the burden of defense spending, it developed politically popular but extraordinarily expensive entitlement programs. European politicians lack the will to divert funds to their national security needs.

The increasingly close-knit Russian, Chinese, and Iranian axis has a real advantage over the U.S., NATO, and Pacific allies.  The three nations are in close proximity (Russia and China share an extensive border) and need not worry about their lines of supply and communication being interrupted. Geographically, Russia has a dominant position in Eastern Europe, China is rapidly becoming a hegemon in Asia, and Iran, with Russia’s assistance, has become the force to be reckoned with in the strategically vital Middle East. With their vastly increased navies, Russia and China can wreak havoc with U.S. attempts to reinforce bases and allies spread across the planet.

Unlike Germany and Japan in the Second World War, the new axis of Russia and China will not be at a disadvantage when it comes to raw materials.  Russia has vast reserves of energy, and China has worked diligently to corner the market in vital minerals, particularly in Africa. Indeed, when it comes to those raw materials, it will be America and its allies that face a severe challenge.

Too many politicians on both sides of the Atlantic have apparently decided that it is far more personally profitable to pretend that this imminent crisis does not exist than to take the necessary and expensive steps to address it. But whether the bill comes due in the form of an actual attack or the threat of an attack to obtain a massive strategic goal, it will come.

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U.S., NATO Must Act to Deter Russia Threat to Baltics

Russia’s recent aggressive “buzzing” of an American naval ship in the Baltic Sea should not have come as a surprise.  Despite the reluctance of many to recognize the fact, Moscow has entered into an era of aggressiveness even exceeding that of the later years of the Soviet Union. Emboldened by inadequate U.S. defense budgets, and strengthened by a lopsided arms treaty that gave it a lead in nuclear weapons for the first time in history, the Kremlin is increasingly acting in a manner which suggests it is moving towards an armed incursion into more nations than just Georgia and Ukraine.  If it chose to do so in the Baltics, studies conclude, it would defeat NATO forces handily.

In March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenber noted: “When it comes the security situation in the Baltic Region we see a changed and more challenging security environment. .. We have seen a significant Russian buildup, military buildup in …the Baltic region with more planes, with more naval presence and also with more troops…”

Stoltenber’s remarks were expanded on by his Deputy, Ambassador Alexander Vershbow:

“… Russia’s aggression against Ukraine – including the first changing of borders by force in Europe since World War II – represented what I called a ‘new strategic reality,’ one that is even starker today. Since the start of the Ukraine crisis, Russia has continued to undermine the post-War and post-Cold War international order, an order based on respect for the sovereignty of nations, for the rule of law, and for human rights.  Russia is trying to turn back the clock to a time when it dominated countries within its sphere of influence through force and intimidation…

“Russia has embraced the promotion of insecurity, and withdrawn from all manner of military transparency agreements.  Russian combat forces can move along the full length of its border with great speed and stealth.  It also has considerable anti-ship and anti-aircraft weapons that could impede NATO reinforcements (its so-called anti-access/area denial capability).  And it has shown in Ukraine that it can combine military power with unconventional ‘hybrid’ methods – cyberattacks, subversion, disinformation – to destabilize its neighbours.”

Moscow’s threat is greatest in the Baltic region. The Rand organization conducted an analysis of potential Russian aggression in that area, and the results are highly disturbing. The outcome, it reports, is unambiguous: “NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members.” Indeed, according to Rand’s study, the Kremlin’s forces could complete their conquest in about 60 hours.
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The Center for New American Security worries that NATO has not kept up with growing challenges, particularly those of Russia’s current tactics and strategy:

“NATO is no longer as strong or resilient militarily or institutionally as it should be. Its disinvestment in force structure over the past generation, even as its core decisionmaking bodies have become calcified in their approaches to challenges, have left the organization inflexible in the face of emerging hybrid threats. Lastly, the alliance has become increasingly aware that it no longer has a coherent strategy to confront a rapidly changing world, and that the world knows it. This conveys a sense of institutional vulnerability, inviting a response. Russia’s aggression on the eastern flank of Europe and the unrest in the Middle East with its ensuing migration crisis both reflect the strategic vacuum that is Europe, drawing in conflict as a black hole draws in matter. NATO must gather its collective wisdom and present a united strategic front to the world.”

Other nations have noticed NATO’s increased vulnerability, particularly following the inexplicable withdrawal of American armor by President Obama. The Atlantic Council reports that “… the U.S. is exerting less visible political leadership in the Alliance than before…. a revisionist and externally aggressive Russia poses a short-term threat to the Alliance… For the U.S., responding to security threats in the Baltic Sea region is ultimately about the credibility of its global foreign policy and position as a superpower.”

The  problem of protecting the Baltics is not unsolvable.  The Rand study found that “A force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades — adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground and ready to fight at the onset of hostilities — could suffice to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states.”

Ironically, the type of weaponry needed to accomplish this is exactly what President Obama withdrew from Europe.

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49% of U.S. Universities Censor Students

The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) has found that 49.3% of the 440 universities it surveyed maintain severely restrictive speech codes, policies that clearly and substantially prohibit protected speech. The only good news for First Amendment advocates is that the number of colleges doing so has been steadily declining.

According to FIRE, “Despite the critical importance of free speech on campus, too many universities—in policy and in practice—censor and punish students’ and faculty members’ speech and expressive activity. One way that universities do this is through the use of speech codes—policies prohibiting speech that, outside the bounds of campus, would be protected by the First Amendment.”

The CATO organization  believes the problem can be traced to the “massive expansion of the bureaucratic class at universities, which officially began outnumbering the number of full-time instructors in 2005, and the rise of the ‘risk management’ industry, which makes a fortune teaching universities how to avoid lawsuits by regulating almost every aspect of student life.” The Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) is the federal agency, according to CATO, that has instituted a “hair trigger” that chills speech.

According to CATO, “By the late 1980s, colleges were adopting “anti-harassment” codes that restricted protected speech. In the mid-1990s, the campus speech code phenomenon converged with the expansion of federal anti-discrimination law by the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights. OCR encouraged and even required harassment codes, and although its guidance tried to ‘balance’ the need for these codes with the First Amendment, by the time FIRE was founded in 1999, universities were using the “federal government made me do it” excuse to justify even the most laughably unconstitutional speech codes.”

In reaction to the officially sanctioned repression of free speech, students have turned both to petitions and law suites.

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“We, the undersigned, feel that it is our duty to address certain issues that threaten the current and future well-being of Dartmouth College…the Dartmouth administration has spent its time policing student life. Buoyed by the idea that the College should support exclusionary ‘safe spaces’ that act as a barrier against uncomfortable ideas, administrators have assumed the role of paternalistic babysitters. By effectively taking sides in sensitive debates and privileging the perspectives of certain students over other…administrators have crossed the line between maintaining a learning environment that is open to all and forcing their own personal views onto the entire campus. In doing so, they have undermined the value of civility, harmed the free exchange of ideas, and performed a disservice to those students who see their time in college as preparation for success in the real world…The Greek system, which has historically provided students with a social arena relatively free from the control of administrators, has been subjected to increasingly strict administrative control as well…We believe that the administration should treat students like the legal adults they are and cease chipping away at free speech, free thought, and free association…”

The most recent lawsuit was filed by the Alliance Defendng Freedom (ADF) on May 19, on behalf of Young America’s Foundation, California State University-Los Angeles Young Americans for Freedom, columnist Ben Shapiro, and a CSU-LA student, challenging what they perceive to be the unconstitutional policies and practices of the university.

According to ADF, “Shapiro was scheduled to give a presentation entitled ‘When Diversity Becomes a Problem’ at CSU-LA on Feb. 25, as part of a free speech event organized by YAF. University officials first attempted to shut down the event. When those efforts failed, professors helped incite a mob of protestors to block entry to the venue… [they] flooded the university’s Student Union and physically blocked access to the theater where Shapiro was scheduled to speak… CSU-LA unilaterally decided what ideas are permissible, in a flagrant violation of the First Amendment, and even allowed an aggressive mob to menace free speech supporters,” said ADF Senior Counsel David Hacker. ‘The defendants’ actions violated numerous university policies, as well as state and local laws. By blocking access to the event, the protestors created a serious safety hazard and denied our clients’ fundamental rights to free speech, due process, and equal protection of law.”

ADF filed the lawsuit, Young America’s Foundation v. Covino, in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California.

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IRS vs. Small Business

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THE SAD TRUTH ABOUT “GENDER DYSPHORIA” AND CHILDREN

The New York Analysis of Policy & Government is honored to present this guest commentary by the distinguished retired jurist, John H. Wilson.  John H. Wilson is a former Judge of the New York City Criminal Court.  He has served as an Assistant District Attorney, and a Public Defender.

Every one of us have made decisions and wish we’d done things differently.  However, few have the long lasting repercussion of the surgical removal of a sexual organ.  When these decisions have been made by an adult, that adult can only blame themselves for their error.  But what if the decision to transition from one sex to another is made by a child?

Increasingly, Transgenderism is being diagnosed in children, some as young as 5 years old.  Parents with young children who identify as other than their birth sex are now frequently consenting to a medical provider giving that child hormone-blockers, in anticipation of the future removal of that child’s sexual organs.

This is obviously a controversial choice for a parent to make on behalf of their young child, one that has stirred debate across the country, if not the world.  But now, the American College of Pediatricians has stepped into the controversy regarding children with “gender dysphoria” – and stated clearly and unequivocally that “conditioning children into believing that a lifetime of chemical and surgical impersonation of the opposite sex is normal and healthful is child abuse.”

Citing to scientific standards, the Pediatric group states that “human sexuality is an objective biological binary trait: “XY” and “XX” are genetic markers of health,” and as such, “Everyone is born with a biological sex,” that is, either male or female.  While this may seem obvious to most people, the conclusion the College draws from this fact is what has stirred controversy: “When an otherwise healthy biological boy believes he is a girl, or an otherwise healthy biological girl believes she is a boy, an objective psychological problem exists that lies in the mind not the body, and it should be treated as such.”

The Pediatric group has no problem with stating that “gender dysphoria.”  is, in fact, a recognized mental illness.  Quoting from the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition(DSM-V). page 455, the College states that those distressed and impaired by “gender dysphoria” meet the definition of a psychiatric disorder. But here, significantly, the Pediatric group disagrees with the treatment generally prescribed to “cure” the disorder.

“Puberty is not a disease and puberty-blocking hormones can be dangerous.” the doctors write.   “Reversible or not, puberty- blocking hormones induce a state of disease – the absence of puberty – and inhibit growth and fertility in a previously biologically healthy child.”

As expected, the backlash against the College has been vicious.  The website for Think Progress calls the College a “hate group,” and cites to the Southern Poverty Law Center for support.    Further, the Huffington Post turns the College’s position on its head, and accuses the Pediatric Group of being the ones endangering the lives of transgender youth.

Predictably, however, the majority of the mainstream media has largely ignored the statement published by the College.

This silence is not surprising, given that the majority of coverage given to this issue favors gender reassignment.  On Slate, we find headlines such as “Raising a Trans Child is not Child Abuse,” and “How to tell Aunt Esther That Her Niece is Now Her Nephew.”

In recent years, those who have undergone sexual reassignment surgery are celebrated.  For instance, on Slate appears an article about a 7 year old boy, “My Son Loves My Little Pony,” in which a father discusses how hard it is for “boys who want to embrace their femininity,” since “men and boys are mostly shamed for expressing anything outside of the macho ideal.”
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Stories can be found from those who deeply regret taking a knife to their sexuality.  At the website “Sex Change Regret,” http://www.sexchangeregret.com/ Walt Heyer documents his own transition from male, to female, and back to male.  He also reports the experience of M, who states “although I thought I was completely sure of what I was doing, I began to regret the decision a mere three weeks after the operation.”

In England, Chelsea Attonley, who transitioned from a male to a female, and lived as a female for 7 years, wishes to return to her original male identity.  Chelsea states that “no amount of surgery can give me an actual female body and I feel like I am living a lie.”  Yet, the sub headlines to the story in the Daily Mail focus on the cost to the National Health System of both the original and the reversal surgery.

Given the history described here, it is not surprising that the few non-conservative news outlets that have covered the statement made by the American College of Pediatricians have attacked the position, and instead document the strong necessity of supporting your child’s decision to be transgender, no matter what their age.

There are few stories available regarding the regrets felt by children at their transition.  Ria Cooper began receiving female hormone treatments at the age of 16.  He states that the last time he dressed as a boy was when he was 10 years old.  In 2012, at the age of 18, Cooper decided to return to his male identity.  In 2010, he stated the obvious truth that his doctors ignored – “People might think I’m too young to make such a huge decision.”   (Daily Mail)

At his website Sex Change Regret, Walt Heyer describes “one controversial treatment for children with gender dysphoria is the administration of drugs called hormone blockers to delay puberty…(yet) most will grow out of the dysphoria.  Isn’t there some way to work through the distress than experimenting on our children?”

Here, then, is the issue in a nutshell –  Celebrating the “lifestyle choices,” of the gender confused ignores the medical and psychological issues involved in gender reassignment surgery, including the deep regret felt by many of those who have undergone these invasive and dangerous surgical procedures.

The American College of Pediatricians does not hesitate to point out the detrimental health effects of gender reassignment surgery.  “Children who use puberty blockers to impersonate the opposite sex will require cross-sex hormones in late adolescence. Cross-sex hormones (testosterone and estrogen) are associated with dangerous health risks including but not limited to high blood pressure, blood clots, stroke and cancer.”  Further, “rates of suicide are twenty times greater among adults who use cross-sex hormones and undergo sex reassignment surgery, even in Sweden which is among the most LGBTQ – affirming countries.”

It is one thing when the choice to transition has been made by an adult, of legal age to make such a significant decision.  But when we are discussing a choice made by a child, legally incapable of making a decision without the consent of a parent, the utter irresponsibility of blocking the onset of that child’s puberty is manifest.

 

 

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Quick Analysis

America’s Vulnerability in Space

The United States is exceptionally dependent on orbital assets for its national defense. However, Adversaries such as China increasingly possess sophisticated weaponry which could quickly destroy American spacecraft.  That could lead to significant vulnerabilities.

In an analysis of anti-satellite weapons, the Stimson Center noted that:

“…entire constellations of valuable satellite systems rotating the Earth could be destroyed quickly if indeed an adversary is targeting them…Imagine, however, a future conflict in which space assets are targeted with destructive force. The US Air Force Space Command in recent years hosted wargaming exercises that simulated, in one instance, hostilities that required US and allied forces to operate for ‘a day without space.’ While loss of space-based communications was mitigated by terrestrial systems, the consequences for operating in space were certainly not remedied in a day. Indeed, participants were left to speculate if the United States might be contemplating a century or even much longer ‘without space.’ Consider what this could mean for the reputation of the United States, and for the trajectory of human discovery. Unchecked, hostile action in space could produce debris, orbiting the earth at nine times the speed of a bullet, … This could place manned and unmanned space flight at unacceptable risk of mission failure due to catastrophic collision with debris. Not only would investment in, and insurance for, advanced spacecraft and launch engineering be extinguished. Of much greater importance, mankind’s access to space for exploration and pursuit of knowledge would be closed off – for young and old alike, for schoolchildren, scientists and aspiring astronauts, in America and around the world, possibly for a very long time. A more toxic legacy for US security policy would be hard to conceive.”

In 2007, China destroyed an orbiting satellite. Testifying before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in 2015, Kevin Pollpeter of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation stated:

“Based on their analysis of U.S. military operations, Chinese military researchers view space as a critical component in making the PLA into a force capable of winning “informatized” wars and recognize the role space plays in the collection and transmittal of information and the need to deny those capabilities to an adversary. Indeed, nearly every Chinese source describes space as the “ultimate high ground,” leading many Chinese analysts to assess that space warfare is inevitable. Because of the preeminence of the space battlefield, analysts writing on space argue that it will become the center of gravity in future wars and one that must be seized and controlled. In fact, these analysts argue that the first condition for seizing the initiative is to achieve space supremacy.”

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In response to the escalating threat,General John Hyten, commander of Air Force Space Command, announced the command’s “Space Enterprise Vision” (SEV.)

Hyten cited studies that found that America’s space assets are “not resilient enough to be successful in a conflict that extends to space. He explained that “In the recent past, the United States enjoyed unchallenged freedom of action in the space domain. Most U.S. military space systems were not designed with threats in mind, and were built for long-term functionality and efficiency, with systems operating for decades in some cases. …This is no longer an adequate methodology to equip space forces.”

Hyten said the SEV will respond to “the increasing threat to space systems, and provides a vision for how the Air Force should build a force responsive to that threat.  The vision describes an integrated approach across all space mission areas, coupling the delivery of space mission effects to the warfighter (such as communications, positioning, navigation & timing, missile warning, and weather data) with the ability to protect and defend space capabilities against emerging threats.

“Consistent with U.S. National Space Policy, the vision enhances U.S. space forces’ ability to deter others from interference and attack, defend our space systems if deterrence fails and contribute to the defense of allied space systems…To guide the development of this future enterprise, the SEV proposes using a new optimizing concept called ‘resilience capacity’ to characterize and evaluate space capabilities.  Resilience capacity will measure how well space enterprise forces can respond to the full range of known threats, and how quickly they can adapt to counter future threats, while continuing to deliver space effects to joint and coalition warfighters.”