“In regard to the issues of conflicting interest with its surrounding countries, including Japan, China has attempted to change the status quo by force based on its own assertion which is incompatible with the existing order of international law. The attempts have been criticized as assertive and include risky behavior that could cause contingencies. Thus, there is concern over its future direction”.
–Defense of Japan 2013
The planet’s second and third most powerful economies, China and Japan, may be on a path to conflict. The international economy could be devastated as a result.
The South China Sea is the passageway through which over 50% of the world’s merchant fleet tonnage passes. Fully one third of all seagoing traffic sails through it. In excess of six times the amount of oil that is transported through the Suez Canal and seventeen times that which goes through the Panama Canal traverses this vital body of water. It is also the potential battleground for a Sino-Japanese war.
The specific flashpoints include a variety of territorial disputes, some of which are merely points of sovereignty but in several cases also include claims to area which may have a wealth of natural resources vital to the economies of both nations.
Observers from across the globe consider the current tensions between the two nations the worst since World War Two, made even more dangerous by the immediate threat of armed conflict.
A Stratfor Global Intelligence http://www.startfor.com/weekly/understanding-china-Japan-island-conflict examination outlines the internal political dilemmas facing both nations:
“The islands dispute is occurring as China and Japan, the world’s second- and third-largest economies, are both experiencing political crises at home and facing uncertain economic paths forward. But the dispute also reflects the very different positions of the two countries in their developmental history and in East Asia’s balance of power.
“China, the emerging power in Asia, has seen decades of rapid economic growth but is now confronted with a systemic crisis, one already experienced by Japan in the early 1990s and by South Korea and the other Asian tigers later in the decade. China is reaching the limits of the debt-financed, export-driven economic model and must now deal with the economic and social consequences of this change. That this comes amid a once-in-a-decade leadership transition only exacerbates China’s political unease as it debates options for transitioning to a more sustainable economic model. But while China’s economic expansion may have plateaued, its military development is still growing.
“The Chinese military is becoming a more modern fighting force, more active in influencing Chinese foreign policy and more assertive of its role regionally.”
“Japan, by contrast, has seen two decades of economic malaise characterized by a general stagnation in growth, though not necessarily a devolution of overall economic power. Still, it took those two decades for the Chinese economy, growing at double-digit rates, to even catch the Japanese economy. Despite the malaise, there is plenty of latent strength in the Japanese economy. Japan’s main problem is its lack of economic dynamism, a concern that is beginning to be reflected in Japanese politics, where new forces are rising to challenge the political status quo. The long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party lost power to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan in 2009, and both mainstream parties are facing new challenges from independents, non-traditional candidates and the emerging regionalist parties, which espouse nationalism and call for a more aggressive foreign policy.
“Even before the rise of the regionalist parties, Japan had begun moving slowly but inexorably from its post-World War II military constraints. With China’s growing military strength, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and even South Korean military expansion, Japan has cautiously watched as the potential threats to its maritime interests have emerged, and it has begun to take action. The United States, in part because it wants to share the burden of maintaining security with its allies, has encouraged Tokyo’s efforts to take a more active role in regional and international security, commensurate with Japan’s overall economic influence.
“Concurrent with Japan’s economic stagnation, the past two decades have seen the country quietly reform its Self-Defense Forces, expanding the allowable missions as it re-interprets the country’s constitutionally mandated restrictions on offensive activity.
“China is struggling with the new role of the military in its foreign relations, while Japan is seeing a slow re-emergence of the military as a tool of its foreign relations. China’s two-decade-plus surge in economic growth is reaching its logical limit, yet given the sheer size of China’s population and its lack of progress switching to a more consumption-based economy, Beijing still has a long way to go before it achieves any sort of equitable distribution of resources and benefits. This leaves China’s leaders facing rising social tensions with fewer new resources at their disposal. Japan, after two decades of society effectively agreeing to preserve social stability at the cost of economic restructuring and upheaval, is now reaching the limits of its patience with a bureaucratic system that is best known for its inertia.
“Both countries are seeing a rise in the acceptability of nationalism, both are envisioning an increasingly active role for their militaries, and both occupy the same strategic space. With Washington increasing its focus on the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing is worried that a resurgent Japan could assist the United States on constraining China in an echo of the Cold War containment strategy.”
Despite historical animosity between the two great Asian powers, the level of tension now existing was not inevitable. But China’s meteoric development of military strength, fueled by its powerful economy, a newly belligerent attitude in Beijing, a desire to secure advantageous positions in trade and raw materials, and a sharply diminished American naval presence have left Tokyo vulnerable.
It was not that long ago that a far different relationship, at least temporarily, was envisioned by China’s leadership. Henry Kissinger noted in his book, On China, that in 1978, former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping began his series of visits abroad in Japan, ratifying a treaty normalizing relations. According to Kissinger, “Deng’s strategic design required reconciliation, not merely normalization.”
At the time, China feared the Soviet Union, and felt a need for both Japanese technical knowhow and American military backing.
But the Soviet Union fell, China’s economy outperformed Japan, and the U.S. military diminished sharply. Despite a lack of serious threats in the years when Boris Yeltsin reigned in Moscow, Beijing chose to invest heavily in developing a superpower-level military capable not just fully capable of defending the homeland, but of becoming a preeminent power both in Asia and across the globe.
China has been increasingly aggressive in its assertion of territorial claims not recognized by other nations. One year ago, it boldly sailed into and occupied a resource-rich offshore region belonging to America’s longstanding ally, the Philippines. http://www.examiner.com/article/china-philippine-dispute-could-spark-major-conflict The complete lack of an appropriate reaction by White House is reminiscent of Britain and France’s failure to react forcefully to Germany’s aggression in the years leading up to the 1939 start of the European conflict.
A U.S. Naval War College study http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/bfa92a47-1f5f-4c23-974c-f92e1ed27be4/The-Senkaku-Diaoyu-Island-Controversy–A-Crisis-Po.aspx of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island dispute between China and Japan controversy by Paul J. Smith illustrates the dangers in Sino-Japanese territorial disputes:
“The chances for unintentional conflict, perhaps ignited by tactical miscalculation or an accident involving patrol ships or surveillance aircraft, continue to grow. In general, because of changes in the geopolitical environment, including the relative power position of Japan vis-à-vis China, opportunities for peaceful resolution seem to be rapidly fading. The implications for the future of peace and stability in East Asia are potentially grave.
[Three factors are in play] first, the power relationship between Japan and the People’s republic of China, which drives the dynamics of this dispute, is shifting. In the 1970s and, especially, the 1980s Japan’s economic power was unrivaled in East Asia, while China was comparatively undeveloped and militarily weak. Today the situation has changed…
The second factor that negatively influences prospects for peaceful resolution of the controversy is the geographic location of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within the East China Sea. As China’s naval power grows, the East China Sea is emerging as a “contested space” between China and Japan. Many American military observers believe that China’s military modernization efforts are increasingly oriented toward missions other than Taiwan—for example, defense of territorial claims in the east and south China seas. In addition to the Senkakus/Diaoyus, China and Japan have other ongoing East China sea disputes, some related to maritime boundaries and hydrocarbon resources. A 2008 agreement that would have facilitated joint exploration of hydrocarbon resources in the east China sea was essentially scuttled by the September 2010 dispute centering on the islands.
From a military perspective, Japanese defense officials appear to view China’s advances into the East China Sea with growing alarm. Japan’s 2012 defense white paper argued that China’s navy is seeking to protect and consolidate maritime interests in the east China sea: ‘It is believed that its naval vessels operated near the drilling facilities of the Kashi oil and gas fields in September 2005, partly because China tried to demonstrate [its] naval capabilities of acquiring, maintaining, and protecting its maritime rights and interests.’ The same document reported that the Chinese air force has deployed various types of aircraft (including H-6 medium range bombers and y-8 early warning aircraft) around the east China sea close to Japan’s airspace…the most important—the U.S. role in the islands controversy.
“The third underlying factor is arguably signaled to Japan, if in careful or conditional language, the applicability of article 5 of the U.S.-Japan defense treaty in a senkaku Islands military contingency. A briefing paper prepared for Henry Kissinger in 1972, for example, stated that the Mutual Security Treaty ‘could be interpreted’ to apply to the Senkakus. At various times Japanese officials sought to clarify whether the United states considered the islands within the scope of the alliance. For instance, in a March 1974 meeting between American and Japanese officials, defense agency chief Sadanori Yamanaka inquired whether the United States, notwithstanding its “neutral” position, would be willing to defend the islands on behalf of Japan under the security treaty. a U.S. defense office’ that the islands, which were administered by Japan, would indeed fall under the treaty.”
While the U.S. State Department has provided more direct assurances that its treaty obligations with Japan include these island disputes, Washington’s failure to protect the Philippines from Chinese incursions continues to worry Tokyo.
Beijing’s General Luo Yuan, in a statement issued in 2012, declared that China should prepare for “war at all costs” to take control of the strategic waterway. http://www.examiner.com/article/china-philippine-dispute-could-spark-major-conflict If it occurs, it could engulf the entire planet in a conflict on a scale not seen since World War two.
In July, China sent a fleet in the strait between Russia and Japan, a clear threat to the Tokyo government. According to Floating Steel staff writers, “Two missile destroyers, two frigates and a supply ship passed through the Soya Strait from the Sea of Japan to the Sea of Okhotsk…a fleet of 16 Russian naval ships was seen moving through the Soya Straight” as well. http://www.spacewar.com/reports/China_naval_fleet_seen_off_northern_Japan_999.html
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The hostilities have been directed at several nations, including the United States. Fishing boats of several countries have been shot at. In 2009, Chinese vessels intentionally obstructed an American Navy research ship.
According to the authoritative Jamestown Foundation,
“PLA generals have been up front about the possibility of using force to realize China’s oceanic aspirations. As Lieutenant General Wang Sentai, Vice Political Commissar of the PLA Navy, pointed out, ‘History has told us that when our navy is weak, our country is on a downward trend, and when out navy is strong, our country is on the rise,’ he added. Major General Luo Yuan, a hawkish PLA media commentator, reiterated that Beijing might consider the military option against the Philippines. Noting that the Philippine military capacity is among the weakest in Asia, General Luo said that ‘if [Manila] makes an advance of one inch, we will retaliate by making an advance of one foot.’ ‘The South China Sea will become a sea of peace after we have taken back the eight islets that the Philippines have [illegally] occupied,’ he recently noted (China Youth Daily, June 1; China News Service, May 13).” http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=41056&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=25&cHash=4c0f27c3f989560320958d0c44d7eb88#.UhoVaxttiDe
China has been broadly and rapidly modernizing its military forces, and has been rapidly expanding and intensifying its activities in its surrounding waters and airspace. These moves, together with the lack of transparency in its military affairs and security issues, are a matter of grave concern for the region and the international community, including Japan. It is necessary for Japan to pay utmost attention to them…The Chinese national defense budget continues to increase at a rapid pace. The nominal size of China’s announced national defense budget has approximately quadrupled in size over the past ten years, and has grown more than 33-fold over the past 25 years. –Defense of Japan 2013
China’s official military budget has been rapidly increasing, but even the official figure of a 12% increase may not reflect the vast resources available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA.) The PLA controls a vast network of “private” enterprises, from which it can draw an almost limited amount of funds. China maintains the world’s largest military in terms of sheer numbers, and has progressed significantly to add top quality to its quantity.
China’s Philippine claims are not recognized by any nation or international body. In several cases, off-shores areas claimed and illegally occupied by Beijing are clearly within Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
China recently launched its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, and is expected to develop others in the very near future.
China’s spending has extensively increased both the size and sophistication of its naval forces. Among the most startling developments was the successful deployment of a revolutionary new anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-21D, http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/china-has-begun-limited-deployment-new-antiship-ballistic-missile-pentagon/ the first of its kind on the planet. This unmatched and exceptionally deadly ship-killing weapon has, according to the United States Naval Institute, quickly forced the United States Navy to change its strategy.
JAPAN
This dramatic turn of events has had a profound impact on the people of Japan, who are now debating a sharp reversal in their largely pacifist foreign policy and constitution. Sharp differences regarding territorial claims exist between China and other regional countries, and Beijing’s heavy emphasis on a show of military strength against its far weaker neighbors such as the Philippines and Japan is indicative of the hostile nature and heavy influence of China’s military.
Masahisa Sato, top defense adviser to Shinzo Abe, recently and passionately stated (as quoted in the Wall Street Journal): “we have people we want to protect. We must have the resolve to hand this nation to the next generation.” Japan has finally (after an eleven year hiatus) has finally increased its defense budget.
Japan’s recently issued defense white paper http://www.mod.go.jp/e/publ/w_paper/2013.html outlines Tokyo’s distress:
“China has attempted to change the status quo by force based on its own assertion which is incompatible with international law…China has been rapidly modernizing its military forces…it is necessary for Japan to pay attention…The nominal size of China’s announced national defense budget has approximately quadrupled in size over the past ten years, and has grown more than 33-fold over the past 25 years.”
According to Gertz, China is building two new classes of missile submarine in addition to the eight nuclear missile submarines and six attack submarines being deployed as part of an arms buildup that analysts say appears to put Beijing on a war footing.” http://freebeacon.com/red-china-power/
These developments have forced Tokyo to strongly reconsider its peace constitution. Beijing’s aggressiveness and lack of interest in negotiated settlements, and the long standing hostility between the two nations (extending as far back as the 13th Century) is seen as an existential threat to the Japanese people, forcing the nation to rearm.
Japan recently commissioned the largest warship it has developed since the end of World War 2, the Izumo, a flat-top helicopter destroyer. A purely visual analysis of the new craft suggests it may be able to support VTOL (vertical take off and landing) fighters, as well. This development “would be a departure for Japan…which has not sought to build aircraft carriers of its own because of Constitutional restrictions that limit its military forces to a defensive role,” as noted by a Sky News report. http://news.sky.com/story/1125173/japan-unveils-largest-warship-since-wwii.
Tokyo is also considering instituting a Marine Corps-like capability, as well as the use of military-class drones, according to a SpaceWar sudy. http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Japan_eyeing_Marines_drones_in_defence_paper_reports_999.html
The recent, unprecedented joint maneuvers between Russia and China in the Sea of Japan sent an unmistakable signal to the United States that a new world order was being born, one which sharply reduces American influence in a portion of the planet that is the fulcrum of international commerce. The increased confidence of Beijing and Moscow, both of which have invested heavily in the development of naval power specifically targeting the supremacy of the diminished U.S. Navy, has dire global implications.
After the bitter experience of World War II, it would be natural to assume that Asian-Pacific nations would be wary of any move by Tokyo towards rearmament. But the threat from China is so significant that the opposite is true.
Defense expert Seth Cropsey, in his recent book, Mayday: The Decline of American Naval Supremacy, notes:
“Alberto del Rosario, the Foreign Affairs Secretary of the Philippines, a nation that imperial Japan ravaged in World War II, said publicly in December 2012 that he ‘would welcome very much’ the rearmament of Japan as a counterpoise to China.’ This startling about-face in a region where memories are long shows how seriously regional powers regard China’s unchecked rising military. American seapwer needs the resources to assure allies, control the seas if necessary, and restrict a potential conflict to the seas t\rather than risk its expansion to the Asian land mass.”
The mainland of the United States, while clear across the vast Pacific Ocean, is not so remote that it beyond the reach of China’s military expansion. According to the Washington Free Beacon, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jun/7/china-encircles-us-arming-western-hemisphere-state/?page=all “China has been quietly taking steps to encircle the United States by arming Western Hemisphere states, seeking closer military, economic, and diplomatic ties to U.S. neighbors, and sailing warships into U.S. maritime zone s.” http://www.examiner.com/article/china-a-major-factor-latin-america
In addition to Chinese investments on either side of the Panama Canal, giving Beijing a strategic point from which to counter the American Navy, Nicaragua, led by the Marxist-Leninist Daniel Ortega, has given China a “100 year concession” to build its own alternative to the Panama Canal, according to a report by The Guardian newspaper http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/o6/nicaragua-china-panama-canal
China’s President Xi visited Latin America in June in an effort to bolster Beijing’s arms sales to the region. Mexico, Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador are recent regional purchasers of Chinese weapons, according to Bill Gertz writing in the Washington Free Beacon.
The sharply weakened American navy, less than half the size of its 1990 peak and the smallest since the First World War, combined with an unprecedented lack of support for American allies, renders this threat from China on a par equal to that faced by France and Britain during the rise of the Third Reich.