The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents a two-part examination of what would happen if Obamacare isn’t replaced.

There has been a great deal of discussion about the impact of replacing Obamacare. Perhaps more attention should be paid to what would happen if Obamacare is NOT replaced.

A Washington Free Beacon report quotes Aetna CEO Mark Bertoline, noting that “Obamacare Will Continue to Deteriorate If Nothing Happens…” Aetna has announced that it will leave Obamacare exchanges in Iowa and Virgina. Bertoline also stressed that “a reinsurance pool would be a better solution for really sick individuals…When you talk to a lot of constituents who have $6,000 deductibles, live in the five eastern counties of Colorado where there isn’t a doctor, a $6,000 deductible is not helpful.”

Writing for the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Dr. Lawrence R. Huntoon, M.D.states:

“ObamaCare is designed to cheat both patients and physicians. It destroys patient choice and often disrupts continuing long-term patient-physician relationships. By implementing extremely high deductibles, co-pays, and out-of-pocket maximums, ObamaCare creates the illusion of coverage at the cost of unacceptably high premiums…In order to survive, physicians who depend on third-party payment will need to take appropriate legal measures to limit financial losses caused by ObamaCare. Many will likely reassess their plan participation as financial losses and bureaucratic impediments to care increase. Third-party-free practice models will become more attractive to many physicians. And, unfortunately, physicians who opt for hospital-subsidized employment in an attempt to escape the adversities of ObamaCare will only exacerbate the loss of choice for patients and the rationing of care by the so-called Accountable Care Organizations. Patients will also come to recognize that they are paying a very high price for the illusion of coverage under ObamaCare. As patients increasingly realize that, for the most part, they will be spending their own money for medical care during any given year, they will begin to look for better value in their medical care. Third-party-free physicians, who are able to provide timely access to care, and more face-to-face time with patients at an affordable cost, will become more attractive to many patients. Likewise, as high deductibles, high co-pays, and unlimited out-of-pocket costs are a reality under ObamaCare, health savings accounts will become more attractive to more patients. If one is going to spend one’s own money, one might as well spend tax-free money as opposed to after-tax money. “

A major concern about Obamacare has been its detrimental impact on full-time employment, a problem that would continue if the law remains in effect. Writing for Forbes last September, Michael C. Cannon noted: “Four percent of large employers are reducing hiring because of the cost of providing health benefits to them… ObamaCare will depress wages for high-skilled workers by 1.3 percent and for low-income workers by 3 percent.”

The harsh economic impact of Obamacare doesn’t receive adequate attention. Casey B. Mulligan writes in Side Effects and Complications: The Economic Consequences of Health-Care Reform that the economy, and particularly employment, are detrimentally affected.

Edward Morrissey, writing for the Fiscal Times, concurs. He cites a Goldman Sachs study that demonstrates that employers have reduced full-time positions in favor of part-time ones that don’t require them to provide health insurance. That trend will continue if Obamacare is not repealed.

The continued existence of Obamacare-related taxes also would serve as an ongoing drag on the economy. Americans for Tax Reform’s John Kartch lists the $1 trillion in taxes that would be repealed if the legislation were overturned:

Obamacare Individual Mandate Tax

Obamacare Employer Mandate Tax

Obamacare’s Medicine Cabinet Tax
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Obamacare’s Flexible Spending Account tax

Obamacare’s Chronic Care Tax

Obamacare’s HSA withdrawal tax.

Obamacare’s 10% excise tax on small businesses with indoor tanning services.

Obamacare health insurance tax.

Obamacare 3.8% surtax on investment income.

Obamacare medical device tax.

Obamacare tax on prescription medicine.

Obamacare tax on retiree prescription drug coverage.

The Report concludes tomorrow.

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Growing Challenge

“It’s going to get bad this summer, really bad!” Those were words spoken earlier this week by a former US Marine Colonel with extensive experience in the European command. As summer approaches there is growing concern in Washington about the expansion and intensification of the war in Ukraine. Russia is biding its time this spring while it replenishes its ammunition supplies and secures more volunteers to fight on the front lines. Mounting losses over the last year means that President Vladimir Putin must reach further into the outer regions of Russia to recruit soldiers. Those regions are mainly populated by non-ethnic Russians with contempt for a government in Moscow that has forgotten them and ignored their needs in the past. It raises a challenge for Putin. This spring Russia is experiencing increasing ethnic tension and greater anti-Kremlin sentiment in areas as far away as Siberia. Putin faces a major task in maintaining a “volunteer” military as the number of able-bodied Russians willing to fight in Ukraine dwindles, with the war passing the second-year mark. According to Sergey Sukhankin of the Jamestown Foundation, Moscow is relying heavily on “so-called ‘volunteer’ battalions assembled from the outer regions of Russia.” So far, Putin’s strategy has enabled the government to avoid discontent building to unmanageable levels among ethnic Russians living in and near Moscow. Siberian units fighting on the front have sustained heavy losses and, according to Sukhankin, it “sets a dangerous precedent and poses the risk of inflaming animosity between Russia’s regions and its federal center.” The Buryatia-based Baikal battalion, which was formed 20 months ago, lost so many volunteers that there are no more to join the unit after a battle outside the village of Petropavlivka in Kharkiv Oblast in which over 180 were killed, according to the New Times of Russia. The story is played out again and again. One of the local elites from the Public Chamber of the Republic of Buryatia questioned whether it was “The stupidity and sloppiness of the military command or is this deliberate sabotage….” This region is one of the poorer areas in Russia. Residents often lack military compensation for the disabilities or deaths of their family members fighting in a war, in which well over 1,300 of their neighbors lost their lives. When they receive money for enlisting it is a low, one-time payment of 100,000 rubles (about US $1,000). The publication Novayagazeta.eu says that the region has the fourth highest total losses in all of Russia. Units from other autonomous regions that received less dangerous assignments and suffered fewer losses are more closely involved in promoting “military-patriotic” education for local youth and supporting Putin’s war. They, in essence, serve as a war propaganda machine for the Kremlin. There is growing evidence, despite Kremlin disinformation efforts this spring, that Putin cannot count on the majority of non-ethnic Russians to support the war effort in Ukraine. Without the backing of Russia’s ethnic minorities Putin’s buildup of arms will be of little use. Sukhankin says that “one should not forget about the pro-Ukrainian Sibir battalion and its leader Vladislav Ammosov, an ethnic Yakut who worked in Russia’s military intelligence agency for 15 years before defecting to fight for Ukraine.” Putin does not have an easy path to victory in front of him. The war is likely to intensify this summer with the replenished armaments, but so is anti-Kremlin sentiment. Add to it, Putin faces challenges to find the bodies to send to the front lines. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry

Our Latest Television Program

Israel, Ukraine and American Divisiveness

The fight for Ukraine and Israel’s security is vital not just for those nations, but for America as well. Retired Marine Lt. Col. Hunter “Rip” Rawlings, who has served in the affected regions, explains why. Author Brent Hamachek describes what has caused the extreme divisiveness in America today. If you missed the program on your local TV station, watch it here: https://rumble.com/v4q11ni-the-american-political-zone-april-16-2024.html Photo: Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder conducts a news briefing at the Pentagon, April 15, 2024.