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Illegal Aliens and the Rise in Violent Crime

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government’s review of illegal aliens and the rise in violent crime concludes today. 

Breitbart believes that the mainstream media is “working overtime to keep the American public and the American voters in the dark on the scope of illegal alien crime…Let’s look at a few numbersYou haven’t seen them in the New York Times, Atlanta Constitution, or the Miami Herald, nor have they been featured on NBC Nightly news or CNN. So, the average American is blissfully unaware of them.

  • Between 2008 and 2014, 40% of all murder convictions in Florida were criminal aliens. In New York it was 34% and Arizona 17.8%.
  • During those years, criminal aliens accounted for 38% of all murder convictions in the five states of California, Texas, Arizona, Florida and New York, while illegal aliens constitute only 5.6% of the total population in those states.
  • That 38% represents 7,085 murders out of the total of 18,643.”

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That 5.6% figure for the average illegal alien population in those five states comes from US Census estimates. We know the real number is double that official estimate. Yet, even if it is 11%, it is still shameful that the percentage of murders by criminal aliens is more than triple the illegal population in those states. Those astounding numbers were compiled by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) using official Department of Justice data on criminal aliens in the nation’s correctional system. The numbers were the basis for a presentation at a recent New Hampshire conference sponsored by the highly respected Center for Security Policy….[One example] The Texas Department of Public Safety reports that between 2008 and 2014, 35% of all murder convictions were illegal aliens—averaging 472 murders each year from 2004 to 2008.

Peter Kirsanow, writing in National Review, writes: “ Using data from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), state prison systems, and Pew, we were able to compare rates of major offenses in states with sizeable populations of illegal aliens. For example: Arizona: Approximately 240 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 68.57 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide offenses per 100,000 illegal aliens in Arizona, whereas 54.06 citizens and legal residents were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses per 100,000 citizens and legal residents in Arizona. California: Approximately 2,430 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 97.2 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide and related offenses per 100,000 illegal aliens in California, whereas 74.1 citizens and legal residents were imprisoned for homicide and related offenses per 100,000 citizens and legal residents. Florida: Approximately 480 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 54.85 illegal aliens were imprisoned for murder and manslaughter per 100,000 illegal aliens in Florida, whereas approximately 67.8 legal residents were imprisoned for murder and manslaughter per 100,000 legal residents. New York: Approximately 1,350 illegal aliens were imprisoned for homicide-related offenses. This means approximately 168.75 illegal aliens were imprisoned for  murder and related offenses per 100,000 illegal aliens in the state, whereas approximately 48.12 legal residents were imprisoned for murder and related offenses per 100,000 legal residents.”

In 2015, the Daily Caller noted that “President Obama unleashed a nation-wide crime wave when he directed his deputies to release 36,007 foreign criminals back into Americans neighborhoods in 2013, instead of repatriating the criminals…”

WND notes that “Sanctuary Cities,” which help shield illegals from what little enforcement exists under the Obama Administration, exacerbate the problem:

“Laws in sanctuary cities help shield illegal immigrants from deportation, even after they’ve committed felonies. Investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson with “Full Measure” found the problem of the U.S. as a sanctuary for crime is much larger and often understated by politicians and advocates with special interests at stake. Families of victims say politics and political correctness have forced their personal tragedies into the shadows, while shielding the criminals…U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, investigating the issue, noted, “You’ve got an administration that thinks more highly of their interests in protecting undocumented workers than there is enforcing the law, and in the process of making that decision, violating their constitutional oath to faithfully execute the laws of this country.”

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Wrong on Crime

There is an inclination on the part of many to characterize law enforcement in the United States as unnecessarily harsh or overbearing. The reality is quite different.

Hillary Clinton incorrectly stated during her September 26 debate that violent crime was down in the United States. FBI statistics indicate that she has her facts wrong. Murder rose 10.8% from 2014 to 2015, and violent crime in general rose about 4%. Ms. Clinton also incorrectly alleged that murders in NYC were down. The FBI reports, however, that homicides increased by 6% in the Big Apple from 333 in 2014 to 352 in 2015.

Ignoring the very recent increase in violent crime, or overlooking the strategies that led to the success achieved against violent crime two decades ago, could lead to a return to the dark days that plagued the nation with far too many murders and other vicious acts. Far too often, ideological agendas lead advocates to ignore the facts.

Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)  speaking at New York’s Hudson Institute, noted:

“We’re currently reaping the benefits of one of the great public-policy achievements in modern times: a dramatic, generation-long drop in crime… this drop in crime followed a decade-long spike in crime arising out of the drug epidemic of the 1980s and early 1990s. That epidemic turned streets into literal battlefields, teenagers into foot soldiers, and too many citizens into casualties of the drug wars. It may seem like a distant nightmare now, but make no mistake: 30 years ago, our cities were slowly dying. At the peak of New York’s crisis, the city had 2,245 murders in one year-that’s over six murders every single day. In Los Angeles, a city half the size of New York, there were 1,094 murders. Nor was the crisis limited to the biggest cities….At one point, Little Rock had the highest per capita murder rate in America…

“We turned our society around and we made our streets safe again…it happened because of policy changes like broken-windows policing techniques, mandatory-minimum sentences for violent criminals, 3-strikes laws, and other reforms…Too many people, it would seem, have forgotten these hard-learned lessons. They take our historically low crime rates for granted, acting as if safe neighborhoods are the natural state of man. They often speak and act as if criminals are victims, too.
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“This disturbing amnesia also comes with a policy agenda as ambitious as it is wrongheaded. Some members of Congress would reduce mandatory minimum sentences for drug traffickers and other violent felons, while giving liberal judges more discretion in sentencing again. Others want to prohibit employers from inquiring about criminal history in job-application forms; some states have already done so. Just last month, one governor restored voting rights to more than 200,000 felons, regardless of the offense committed or evidence of rehabilitation. And, of course, a nationwide movement is afoot to stigmatize law enforcement and the proven policing strategies of the last 25 years.”

The U.S. Department of Justice is on the incorrect side of this debate As noted in a recent New York Post editorial,  Attorney General Loretta Lynch wants courts to replace fines and jail time for some offenses with “community service” and “amnesty days,” (whereby outstanding arrest warrants are cleared for nominal fees.)

There is truth to the argument that the U.S. has a large prison population. Peter Wagner and Bernadette Rabuy, writing in Prison Policy notes that The American criminal justice system holds more than 2.3 million people in 1,719 state prisons, 102 federal prisons, 2,259 juvenile correctional facilities, 3,283 local jails, and 79 Indian Country jails as well as in military prisons, immigration detention facilities, civil commitment centers, and prisons in the U.S. territories.

There is, however, no accuracy in the claim that low-level drug offenses or racism are the reason. Stephanos Bibas, writing in National Review  reports: “As Fordham law professor John Pfaff has shown, more than half of the extra prisoners added in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were imprisoned for violent crimes; two thirds were in for violent or property crimes. Only about a fifth of prison inmates are incarcerated for drug offenses, and only a sliver of those are in for marijuana. Moreover, many of these incarcerated drug offenders have prior convictions for violent crimes. The median state prisoner serves roughly two years before being released; three quarters are released within roughly six years. For the last several decades, arrest rates as a percentage of crimes — including drug arrests — have been basically flat, as have sentence lengths. What has driven prison populations, Pfaff proves convincingly, is that arrests are far more likely to result in felony charges: Twenty years ago, only three eighths of arrests resulted in felony charges, but today more than half do. Over the past few decades, prosecutors have grown tougher and more consistent.”

The reality that violent crime threatened the very existence of far too many American cities just a few decades ago should not be forgotten. The solutions to that crisis, including tougher sentencing and larger and more involved police departments (now too frequently incorrectly labelled as racist or oppressive) should not be undone if the nation is to avoid a return to the unwanted conditions of the past.

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Reducing incarceration will increase crime

In the aftermath of the October killing of a New York City police officer by a career criminal, outrage was expressed by many that the perpetrator was not in jail.

Despite the reality that an increase in incarceration, (rates of incarceration increased by 400% from 1970 to 2010, according to the Marshall Project) has resulted in a significantly lower crime rate for the past several decades, some continue to call for alternatives to incarceration that would allow some criminals to roam free.

In his October 17 weekly address,  President Obama reiterated several of the myths guiding the call to reverse the strategy that has lowered crime.  A White House description summarizes his comments:

“In this week’s address, the President highlighted the problems in our criminal justice system. Our country faces a vicious cycle of poverty, criminality, and incarceration that traps too many Americans and weakens too many communities. There are 2.2 million people behind bars in America today, compared to 500,000 just 30 years ago. This topic isn’t new – the President has talked about the unfairness of much of the criminal justice system since his time in the Senate. And while we’ve taken steps to address this issue, members of both parties agree that we can do more. Over the next few weeks, the President will travel the country and meet with Americans who are working to fix the criminal justice system, from law enforcement officials working to lower the crime and incarceration rates, to former prisoners who are earning their second chance. And he promised to continue to work with Congress to pass meaningful criminal justice reform that makes the system cost-effective, fairer, and smarter, while enhancing the ability of law enforcement to keep our communities safe.”

The Manhattan Institute’s Heather MacDonald writing in the Wall Street Journal, notes that America is in the midst of “the biggest de-legitimization of law enforcement in recent memory.”

Progressives incorrectly allege that the prison population is comprised in large part of nonviolent minor drug offenders. Ms. MacDonald provides more accurate statistics indicating that violent criminals and serial thieves constitute the vast majority of the incarcerated population. 87% of prisoners are in state jails. In 2013, drug offenders made up less than 16% of state prison populations. In the far smaller federal system, only 1% were imprisoned for simple drug possession, and 49% for serious drug trafficking. The next review will find that even those comparatively small numbers will be lowered even further in the aftermath of the dismantling of tough drug laws in the past few years.

The campaign against incarceration has produced a number of startling comments. A New Yorker article by Adam Gopnik typifies the progressive perspective: “How did we get here? How is it that our civilization, which rejects hanging and flogging and disembowelling, came to believe that caging vast numbers of people for decades is an acceptably humane sanction…William J. Stuntz, a [deceased] professor at Harvard Law School… startlingly suggests that the Bill of Rights is a terrible document with which to start a justice system—much inferior to the exactly contemporary French Declaration of the Rights of Man, which Jefferson, he points out, may have helped shape while his protégé Madison was writing ours.The trouble with the Bill of Rights, he argues, is that it emphasizes process and procedure rather than principles. The Declaration of the Rights of Man says, Be just! The Bill of Rights says, Be fair!”

As attitudes against incarceration harden, violent crime increases. Melanie Batley, writing for Newsmax provides a number of examples:

“A city-by-city look shows:

  • In Baltimore, shootings are up 82.5 percent, or nearly double from last year…
  • In Chicago, there have been over 900 shootings this year, a 40 percent increase, and a 29 percent increase in homicides in the first three months of the year…
  • In New York City, murders have increased 20 percent and the mayor has already announced that he will put an additional 330 cops on the street by Monday in response to the spike in homicides and shootings.
  • In Los Angeles, violent crime rates increased by more than 25 percent and the city is also deploying more officers to areas where crime is on the rise…

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And according to Townhall.com:

  • In St. Louis, there have been 55 murders this year
  • In Dallas, violent crime is up 10 percent
  • In Atlanta, homicides are up 32 percent
  • In Milwaukee, homicides have increased by 180 percent.”

The clear correlation between the increase in incarceration rates and the historic decrease in crime cannot be overlooked. To undue that success poses a true danger to the public.