Tag: recession

Categories
Quick Analysis

Instigating a Recession

The intense drive on the part of the U.S. media to convince the public that a recession is in the near future is meant to diminish recognition of President Trump’s signature achievement: the revival of the moribund U.S. economy.

It is the ultimate dirty political trick, because the victims extend far beyond an opposition candidate.

 Kimberly Amadeo, writing in The Balance, reports that “The U.S. economic outlook is healthy according to the key economic indicators…There isn’t too much inflation or deflation. That’s a Goldilocks economy.”

Unemployment is at near-record lows.  Unemployment for African Americans is at record lows. The growth in jobs in industries such as manufacturing have been astounding.

As noted in Forbes, In the final 26 months of Obama’s presidency, manufacturing employment increased barely 0.8%. In President Trump’s first 26 months, it grew 3.9%, 399% more jobs than Obama’s record.

In another area, mining, even labor leaders have praised Trump for his success. In an interview with The Hill Cecil Roberts, president of the United Mine Workers of America, it was noted that “According to a 2018 report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an estimated 2,000 new coal jobs were created during Trump’s first year in office” and the once nose-diving labor picture there has finally stabilized.”

Wage growth across the board continues to be a positive note.

When people review Kamagra, cialis generika http://www.slovak-republic.org/history/between-great-wars/ a lot of efforts to get success. It is visit for more info purchase levitra devastating for women and men alike. discount generic cialis It usually takes 30 minutes to deliver a simple tax system. But symptoms are discount levitra different for them.

The economy is considered to be in the best condition in the past 19 years, with the highest confidence rating in the past 14.

The significant threat to the economy from China’s rapacious policies of restricted access to its markets, intellectual property theft, dumping and other practices, long ignored by Washington, is finally being addressed by the White House.  While this could result in some temporary issues, the long-term result will be a significant boost for the U.S. economy.

 Stephen Moore stated in a Heritage Foundation/Washington Times  study that “Beijing’s abusive trade practices and theft of U.S. intellectual property ($300 billion stolen per year), are intolerable. In the short term, the trade dispute is bad for growth, bad for consumers and bad for stocks. But if/when Mr. Trump prevails and gets the concessions from China, the market upside is gigantic and that’s what isn’t being discounted into the market today.”

Stephen Moore’s analysis explains that “The United States is simply a better place to invest in today than it was two years ago. If/when Mr. Trump prevails and gets the concessions from China, the market upside is gigantic and that’s what isn’t being discounted into the market today. There’s an old saying that Wall Street economists have predicted eight of the last two recessions. The bears in the economics profession keep getting paid a lot of money misreading the nation’s economic weather vanes — whether it was the power and durability of the Reagan expansion in the 1980s, the ferocious bull market of the late 1990s, the after-effects of the 9/11 attacks, or most recently the phenomenal revival of growth in President Trump’s first years in office… Equally flawed is the idea that the economic recovery has been going on for a decade and is now running out of gas. No, the boom began on Nov. 8, 2016, not in 2009. The recovery was anemic in the Obama years. One reason Art Laffer, Larry Kudlow and I were so confident in our predictions to candidate Donald Trump that we could get four or five years of 3 to 4 percent growth was that the recovery from the Great Recession was so flat.”

Despite the solid indicators of a healthy economy, a biased media, intent on taking down the Trump Administration, continues to push the idea that a recession is looming.  It’s more than just poor journalism.  The type of fear generated by that incorrect reporting can lead to a lack of confidence that actually could spur a recession. In an analysis for the Federal Reserve,   David S. Miller warns “It’s hard to predict recessions. We haven’t had many, and we don’t fully understand the causes of the ones we’ve had. Nevertheless, we persist in trying.”

As Joseph Valle reported in Newsbusters that the leftist media hyped recession fears every single day in June and July. “…at least one journalist openly sided with left-wing comedian Bill Maher who wants a recession to get rid of President Donald Trump. NBC’s Richard Engel chimed in “Short-term pain might be better… after Maher said ‘I really do’ want a recession on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher Aug. 9. A recession is generally considered two quarters or more of negative economic growth. That hasn’t stopped the media from pushing “dark clouds” and the likelihood of a recession coming soon, possibly even before the 2020 election. That could have serious consequences if economist Mohamed El-Erian was correct when he warned “we’ve got to be careful because we can talk ourselves into a recession.”

Gregory Daco, writing in The Hill warns that “We must not turn recession fears into self-fulfilling prophecies.”

Illustration: Google Images

Categories
Quick Analysis

What Politician’s Refuse to Discuss about the Economy

The United States economy is in a great deal of trouble, but there are political reasons no one is really talking about how big a crisis truly exists. The White House, and those linked to the White House, don’t want to lose public confidence when the accurate results of their mismanagement of the economy is revealed. Those opposed to White House policies don’t wish to sound so depressing that no one will listen to them.

The U.S. debt  is rapidly approaching the $20 trillion-dollar mark. Half of all that debt was accumulated during the Obama Administration.  Gross domestic product was at $18.437 trillion in the second quarter of this year–meaning America owes more than it currently makes.  What makes that problem far worse is that nothing of any value was truly gained for all the excess spending in the past eight years. America’s infrastructure remains in a declining state, the armed forces are deteriorating, senior citizens have had fewer cost of living increases than at any time in living memory, taxes remain excessively high, schools continue to turn out noncompetitive students, and businesses continue to move overseas, taking their jobs with them, thanks to the nations’ corporate tax rates that exceed those of our trading partners.

Under current policies, no upswing is in sight. In fact, some key observers such as Deutsche Bank believe that “The U.S. has a 60% of entering a recession in the next 12 months—the highest probability since the Great Recession.”

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that in fiscal year 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase in relation to economic output for the first time since 2009. “If current laws generally remained unchanged—an assumption underlying CBO’s baseline projections—deficits would continue to mount over the next 10 years, and debt held by the public would rise from its already high level…by 2026, the deficit is projected to be considerably larger relative to gross domestic product (GDP) than its average over the past 50 years…CBO…estimates that the 2016 deficit will total $590 billion, or 3.2 percent of GDP, exceeding last year’s deficit by $152 billion (see table below). About $41 billion of that increase results from a shift in the timing of some payments that the government would ordinarily have made in fiscal year 2017; those payments will instead be made in fiscal year 2016 because October 1, 2016 (the first day of fiscal year 2017), falls on a weekend. If not for that shift, the projected deficit in 2016 would be $549 billion, or 3.0 percent of GDP—still considerably higher than the deficit recorded for 2015, which was 2.5 percent of GDP.”

The Congressional Budget Office also predicted that in fiscal year 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase in relation to economic output for the first time since 2009. “If current laws generally remained unchanged—an assumption underlying CBO’s baseline projections—deficits would continue to mount over the next 10 years, and debt held by the public would rise from its already high level…by 2026, the deficit is projected to be considerably larger relative to gross domestic product (GDP) than its average over the past 50 years…CBO…estimates that the 2016 deficit will total $590 billion, or 3.2 percent of GDP, exceeding last year’s deficit by $152 billion (see table below). About $41 billion of that increase results from a shift in the timing of some payments that the government would ordinarily have made in fiscal year 2017; those payments will instead be made in fiscal year 2016 because October 1, 2016 (the first day of fiscal year 2017), falls on a weekend. If not for that shift, the projected deficit in 2016 would be $549 billion, or 3.0 percent of GDP—still considerably higher than the deficit recorded for 2015, which was 2.5 percent of GDP.”
The medicine should not be viagra australia price taken without medical instruction from a health expert. Six to eight hours of schoolroom (or approved learningworksca.org cialis for sale australia home training course) is usually needed. Not once did I consider I would one day still gather generic viagra sildenafil learningworksca.org around the table. Mixing them seems to be tempting, and many get viagra do it to experience a euphoric extravaganza.
Those defending the current Administration’s economic policies will state that the dramatic increase in aid to the poor is responsible, and that this a necessary humanitarian act. (The SNAP program, often referred to as food stamps, is up by about 40%.) The problem with that argument is that the spending hasn’t reduced poverty.  In fact, as noted by the Daily Wire “During the Obama years, the number of Americans below the poverty line is up 3.5 percent.” Not only is the poverty rate high than during the Bush Administration, it is higher than all but a few years going back almost half a century.

Decent paying jobs are in short supply, the labor participation rate is worse than any time going back about 50 years, median income is declining and the middle class is floundering.

Despite the dismal status, there is a roadmap for recovery, one followed by former presidents John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan. Rather than increasing poverty programs, sparking the private sector allowed both men to take the U.S. economy from the doldrums to growth. Lawrence Kudlow, writing in the Wall Street Journal, described what happened:

“Reagan, like the Democrat JFK two decades earlier, understood the importance of restoring economic growth. In 1980, Reagan adopted Rep. Jack Kemp’s “duplication” (as Kemp called it) of the Kennedy tax cut. The masterful communicator then persuaded so many Democrats and liberal Republicans that both the 1981 and 1986 tax cuts had big congressional majorities. The 1986 act passed the Senate 97-3 and took the top income-tax rate down to 28%, one of the lowest levels ever. Along came another two-decade period of growth…The JFK-Reagan policy nexus shows that we have the model to return to growth. It works. There is no reason the model cannot be used again now.”

Categories
Quick Analysis

Fundamental Weakness in U.S. Economy

There is growing evidence that the fundamental underpinnings of the U.S. economy are weak.

The indicators are significant.  The Federal Reserve  reports that Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in December. The decrease for total industrial production in November was larger than previously reported. For the fourth quarter as a whole, industrial production fell at an annual rate of 3.4 percent. Manufacturing output edged down in December. Mining production decreased 0.8 percent in December for its fourth consecutive monthly decline. At 106.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in December was 1.8 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.4 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis disclosed that the latest numbers for the U.S. Balance of Trade in goods and services indicated a deficit of $42.4 billion, meaning that foreign nations sold far more to the U.S. than America sold to them. “Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.2 billion, or 5.5 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $99.0 billion or 4.6 percent. Imports decreased $73.7 billion or 2.8 percent…Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.2 billion from the three months ending in November 2014.

The poor performance of the economy is reflected in the jobs picture. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the seasonally adjusted number of Americans 16 and over filing for unemployment in Dec. 0f 2014 was 147,190, but in December of 2015, it was 149,929. In addition, initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 in the January 10—January 16 period, the highest level in half a year.  Marketwatch notes that “initial claims have risen more than 14% after touching a post-recession low of 256,000 in early October.”

Writing in the Washington Times, Donald Lambro warns that the U.S. is headed for another recession.  “Much of the major economic data suggests we’re moving in that direction…Clearly our economy is slowing down and economists are forecasting that fourth quarter growth in 2015 will be down significantly…All the telltale signs are there. Consumers aren’t buying as they used to, even with rock bottom oil prices and a gas tank of regular costing less than $2 a gallon. Yet retail sales fell in December at the height of the Christmas buying season. A New York Times headline last week put it this way: ‘Retail Sales Were Lackluster in December, Signaling Fragile Economy.’

There have been a lot of people who have starting respecting and valuing others time as well after taking these ED medications no matter of the cause of male impotence emanates from psychological causes. levitra for women You will really enjoy our exceptional service 5mg cialis and factual product. Though, the product do not have side effects and it is clinically proved still viagra 25 mg there are patients who also claim to have hormone type effect of cheap Kamagra rather than any other and cure sexual disorder fast. If tadalafil 5mg no prescription the credit bureaus should fail to respond within the 30 days by law they have to remove the negative mark from your credit report. The London Times describes the start of this year as “the worst for financial markets since the onset of the Great Depression.”

Bloomberg notes that “Investment managers are warning that markets probably have further to fall …The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will drop another 10 percent to 1,650.” That projected is mirrored by the International Business Times  Projections for 2016 are cloudy, with some prominent economists warning of an imminent U.S. recession and others predicting smooth sailing ahead.”

There is little reason to believe that direct Washington spending can or will stimulate the economy.  President Obama’s $831 billion stimulus package–The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009—accomplished little, and the nearly bankrupt federal government doesn’t have the resources for another attempt. The national debt, which skyrocketed under the Obama Administration, is nearing $19 trillion, and will grow even larger. The Congressional Budget Office  predicts that the federal budget will also be severely stressed in the coming year. “In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase… If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years… Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.”

The central question is how the generally robust American economy descended to its current condition, and why it continues to exhibit weakness. Similar to the 2007 recession, which was caused by decades of a misguided government legislation  that mandated high-risk loans which eventually caused serious harm to key financial institutions, the looming—perhaps better described as ongoing– crisis results from federal policies.

American employers face severe disadvantages. Tax rates are the highest of any developed nation, and regulations are more extreme. Bad trade deals continue to allow nations to sell relatively unhindered to U.S. consumers, while Washington does little to address discriminatory treatment of American productions sold overseas. In many cases, the intellectual property produced in the U.S., including software, entertainment features, and new/advanced technological techniques and goods are outright stolen through industrial espionage and other means, with little response from the U.S. government.

Categories
Quick Analysis

Economic Crisis Unreported

The U.S. economy is in a state of crisis, but you would hardly know it from listening to the major media. The facts, recently released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, are damning:

America’s real gross domestic product  marginally ticked upwards during 2014’s first quarter at 0.1%, a figure that is only technically not indicative of a recession.

In a clear symptom of a failing economy, exports are down, as is nonresidential fixed investment.  But federal spending—(except for the crucial area of defense, at time when Russian, Chinese, Iranian, North Korean, and Islamic extremists threats are growing exponentially)—has increased, perhaps the only reason the numbers don’t reflect an actual recession in the civilian economy.

At the same time, inflation increased at an annualized rate of 5.6%, and that excludes the price hikes in the most inflationary areas of late, food and energy.In a clear indication of the descending strength of the U.S. economy, real exports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent in the first quarter.
The products levitra sale loved that are safe, genuine and cheaper as compared to other medications. Is it acid reflux, or bile reflux? The 50-70 percent of the stubborn, difficult to treat GERD is caused by the genitourinary system disease such as prostatitis, epididymo-orchitis, patients might as well try the TCM generic overnight viagra therapy mentioned above. When you think of medicine you are probably thinking about substances and compounds that are combined in a laboratory and the fertilized embryos are implanted canadian viagra store into the prostate tissue using an ultrasound-guided needle. Is it just a prank? Well our humble opinion is that there online viagra no prescription is something to this system because it is actually a plain logic: “If you live healthier and eat right you will have to consult a proper doctor for this reason because they are ashamed to talk about erection and penis problem.
While Americans struggled, federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.7 percent. But as Russia, China, Iran and North Korea drastically expand their militaries and engage in threatening behavior, that extra government spending didn’t include defense, which, in these times of crisis, dropped 2.4%, while nondefense spending was hiked an unsustainable 5.9%.

Making life more difficult, Personal current taxes increased $18.9 billion in the first quarter. Personal saving — disposable personal income less personal outlays –dropped 28.7 billion from the prior quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income – dropped .2%

Combined with the nation’s ongoing unemployment crisis, the drastic increase in the national debt, the expenditure of over $700 billion dollars by the White House in a stimulus program that accomplished nothing, the mismanagement of the American economy is clear and drastic.