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U.S. Economy May Revive in 2017

The First of a two-part series

Can the American economy revive with the change in the White House? It’s a question being asked across the nation, and across the world.

In 2007, the “Great Recession,” brought about in large part due to policies that compelled financial institutions to provide loans to those without proven means to afford them (a policy begun under President Carter and expanded under President Clinton) caused a major disruption in the U.S. economy.  Despite claims to the contrary, America never truly recovered. Growth has failed to average 3% in a decade. During President Obama’s second term, the average growth in the U.S. economy was a mere 2.2%. Middle-income employment remains moribund. Business startups are weak.

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis notes “The number of startup businesses continues to slide. In 1977, the share of US firms that were less than a year old was at 16%. In 2014, the latest data, the percentage was 8%.” The Wall Street Journal  reports: “The U.S. economy is inching along, productivity is flagging and millions of Americans appear locked out of the labor market. One key factor intertwined with this loss of dynamism: The U.S. is creating startup businesses at historically low rates… government data shows a decades-long slowdown in entrepreneurship. The share of private firms less than a year old has dropped from more than 12% during much of the 1980s to only about 8% since 2010. In 2014, the most recent year of data, the startup rate was the second-lowest on record, after 2010, according to Census Bureau figures released last month, so there’s little sign of a post-recession rebound…The share of employment at such firms, meanwhile, has slipped from nearly 4% to about 2% of private-sector jobs…If the U.S. were creating new firms at the same rate as in the 1980s, that would be the equivalent of more than 200,000 companies and 1.8 million jobs a year.”

The continued sluggishness is not the result of a downward business cycle nor a natural disaster.  It is the result of government policies that have overregulated and overtaxed, and provided disincentives to hiring full-time staff.

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While a number of policy changes could result in significant economic growth, the potential, (according to Trump, the promise) of deregulation may prove to be among the most significant factors.

The House Freedom Caucus has released a large list   of what they describe as burdensome regulations that should be repealed within the first 100 days of the Trump Administration.  In releasing the list, the office of Caucus Chairman Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) stated:

“The report contains over 200 rules and regulations, many of which have been implemented by the Obama administration, that have been devastating for working families, businesses, and taxpayers – including the overtime rule, fiduciary regulations, and heavy environmental restrictions. Rep. Meadows has been in touch with members of the Trump transition team and intends to encourage and work with the new administration to roll back these regulations within the first 100 days of President-elect Trump’s term. [According to Rep. Meadows] “These last 8 years, we have seen a disturbing trend of the federal government unnecessarily inserting themselves more and more into the lives of hardworking Americans – and the results have been economically disastrous…When the American people spoke on November 8, they provided conservatives with an opportunity to restore order in our government and to remove the out-of-control bureaucratic red tape that so often stunts the growth of otherwise successful Americans. My colleagues and I look forward to helping President-elect Trump in any way we can as we work toward the most productive ‘first 100 days’ in modern history. To the working people who have felt the burden of these last 8 years so heavily — help is on the way.”

The Report concludes tomorrow

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White House policies continue to harm employment

The latest federal jobs report, again providing bad news for job seekers and the economy, raises a vital question: since the statistics clearly indicate that President Obama’s economic policies have failed, why has there been no change of course from the White House?

According to the Department of Labor, (DOL) very few jobs were created last month, significantly below already modest expectations. They were in fields that, for the most part, do little to revive an American economy apparently heading into recession, and they did not go to those most sorely in need, or do anything to assist the bedrock of the U.S., the middle class.

Among the dismal numbers:

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent),adult women, teenagers (16.3 percent), whites (4.4 percent), blacks (9.2 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little or no change in September. The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks increased by 268,000 to 2.4 million in September, partially offsetting a decline in August. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in September and accounted for 26.6 percent of the unemployed. The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September; the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months. The employment-population ratio edged down to 59.2 percent in September, after showing little movement for the first 8 months of the year.” In addition, hourly wages declined.  In a worrisome note, the August numbers were revised downward, something that generally happens only during a recession.

The American Enterprise Institute called the information a “worrying jobs report. Few jobs created, no pressure on wages and a slight increase in the long-term unemployed. Labor force participation declines even further.”

Breitbart notes that  “The number of Americans not in the labor force exceeded 94 million for the second time in a row last month hitting a new record high.”

Zerohedge.com  called the DOL report

“…a total disaster, 60K below the consensus and below the lowest estimate. Just as bad, the August print was also revised far lower from 173K to 136K. And while it is less followed, the household survey was an unmitigated disaster, with 236,000 jobs lost in September. Putting it into perspective, in 2015 job growth has averaged 198,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 260,000 in 2014. The recession is almost here…not only were workers paid less, they worked less, as the average hourly work week declined from 34.6 hours to 34.5, suggesting an imminent collapse in economic output.”

The Washington Examiner’s  review of the DOL report revealed that “For a third month in a row, native-born Americans saw their job numbers tumble while immigrants experience solid gains. According to the montly Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers just released, “foreign-born” jobs numbers increased by 14,000, while those for “native-born” Americans fell off a cliff, by 262,000. Over the past three months, the job numbers for native-born have dropped by nearly 1 million, exactly the number of jobs President Obama promised to add when he ran for re-election in 2012.”

Now in its seventh year of failure in attempts to turn the job market around, Americans are justifiably asking why President Obama continues to cling to policies that have clearly and significantly failed.

The Competitive Enterprise Institute’s Ian Murray  implicates the actions of the Department of Labor and the National Labor Relations Board for at least some part of the depressed job picture. “Both bodies have made moves over the past few months that make flexible working arrangements difficult. Thereby, they have discouraged both businesses from hiring and workers who would prefer flexible arrangements from getting the working conditions they want. Examples include:

  • The Department of Labor’s interpretationof the Fair Labor Standards Act, which essentially says that most independent contractors have to be classified as employees, and therefore subject to a host of cost-increasing regulations.
  • The Department of Labor’s proposed overtime rule, which will significantly increase costs on businesses that promote from within if they wish to encourage aspirational staff to work longer hours. (The likelihoodis that hours will be cut instead.)
  • The National Labor Relations Board’s decisionon “joint employer” classification and its impending rulings on franchisesand contingent workers. These decisions threaten business models that sustain 5 million jobs across the U.S.

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With this regulatory onslaught ongoing, it should not be surprising that job growth has slowed (although there are clearly many other factors at work as well).”

The San Diego Tribune discusses the implications of hiring foreign workers through H-1B visas, allowing foreign workers to now compete on a larger scale for middle class jobs the same way they have competed for lower wage positions.

Both of those areas are important, but each plays only a singular role in the overall economic challenges imposed by a White House that, in the face of the worst economic climate in recent history, continues to overregulate, overtax, allows massive illegal immigration, pursues trade deals that don’t result in fairness for U.S. companies, and imposes uncertainty on American enterprises.

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Rise of the Administrative State

America’s entire way of government—with laws passed by legislators elected by the citizenry—has become increasingly jeopardized as the administrative state has grown to nearly uncontrollable levels.

Joseph Postell, writing for Libertylawsite, notes that “Multiple scandals involving myriad federal agencies have placed the administrative state front-and-center in many Americans’ minds. Though the scandals involve overreach by specific agencies, they raise broader and more profound questions that extend to the entire federal bureaucracy because the institutional problems are systemic…Astonishingly, we still don’t fully understand how responsible the President is for the actions of administrative agencies (such as the IRS…) Simply put, if the administrative state is really accountable, legally and practically, to the President, then it is not a “fourth branch” of government but merely part of the executive branch, accountable to the public… Today’s administrative state, therefore, makes a mess of the constitutional separation of powers and its careful adjustment of incentives, checks and balances. In such a system, what role can and should the courts play in reviewing agency decision-making? Here is where a deeper understanding of the courts’ historical role in administration is most needed.”

Roger Pilon, writing in CATO, asks “…Is there anything today that is not fit for government’s attention? Large sodas and restaurant menus have lately garnered notice. Retirement, health care, day care, wages, rents, prices, charity, even public radio and television—all that and so much more is the regular business of modern American government …late 19th and early 20th century Progressives. … believed they knew better than the rest of us what our true interests were. …Progressive social engineering took many forms, but its efforts to change the world focused mainly on the political branches. Its aim was to replace judge-made common law, which established the legal framework within which individuals and organizations pursued their interests, with statutory law, enacted by legislatures and, in time, by the administrative agencies in the executive branch…Thus the shift from law grounded in principle to law as policy, from reason to will, and to the politicization of law—precisely what the Constitution sought to avoid. When all is politics, nothing is law.”

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In many cases, agencies’ budgets are also self-determined…The courts have… diminished their own authority to check the executive agencies by making it difficult for citizens to challenge agency actions in court…We need to stop kidding ourselves. Despite what is taught in our schools, we are not governed under the political structure envisioned by our founders. We are ruled by an imperious bureaucracy that creates vague rules, funds itself with fees that is sets at will, and controls the adjudication of disputes when citizens complain about its actions.”

Philip Hamburger, in the Hillsdale College publication Imprimis, warns: “[The] danger is absolutism: extra-legal, supra-legal, and consolidated power…we should demand rule through law and rule under law. Even more fundamentally, we need to reclaim the vocabulary of law: Rather than speak of administrative law, we should speak of administrative power—indeed, of absolute power…then we can at least begin to recognize the danger.”