Tag: Chinese military

The New York Analysis concludes its review of whether the 2018 defense budget is sufficient to meet threats facing the United States.

China’s military has evolved from a large but unsophisticated force into one that rivals any on Earth for technological prowess. Funded by a vast economy, the People’s Liberation Army (which includes all branches of armed services) draws not only on its publicly admitted budget but also on monies gleaned from companies in which it has control or a vested interest.  Beijing was able to move rapidly ahead thanks to its extensive and sophisticated espionage network, which, targeting both private companies and government entities throughout the west, allowed it to save both decades of years and billions of dollars in weapons development. Add corruption to that approach, as well.  From President Bill Clinton’s OK for the sale of a supercomputer to China at a time when that nation sought to contribute to his campaign, and the greed of some corporations to glean major profits from sales, Beijing was able to leapfrog to the heights of military technology while paying only a fraction of the cost Americans had to devote to their own research and development.

To what end?  Writing in National Review, Victor Davis Hanson presents a disturbing answer. “China is currently following the Japanese model of the 1930s and early 1940s… In our arrogance and complacency, we once scoffed at the Japanese… then suffered what followed. Are we doing the same thing some 75 years later?”

The Congressional Research Service notes that “China is building a modern and regionally powerful military with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations away from China’s immediate periphery…China has engaged in a sustained and broad effort over more than 25 years to transform its military…into a high-technology, networked force with an increasing emphasis on joint operations and naval and air power… From 2005 through 2014, China’s official military budget increased at an average rate of 9.5% per year in real terms, allowing the PLA to improve its capabilities in many dimensions. PLA naval forces feature quieter submarines, large surface combatants with improved air defenses and long-range anti-ship cruise missiles, and a nascent aircraft carrier program. New air power capabilities include modern fighter aircraft, more supporting platforms and a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in production and under development. The PLA has increased the number and accuracy of its ballistic missiles for both nuclear and conventional strike missions. China has launched numerous satellites for military communications, surveillance, and navigation, and also has developed a variety of counter-space capabilities. The cyber operations of the PLA are harder to characterize, but reports indicate that China has invested heavily in this area…since the late 2000s the PLA has expanded the geographic scope of its operations.”

One salient example of Beijing’s exceptional sophistication is its DF-21 missile, believed to be “A complete game-changer in the Pacific.”  Global Security  explains: Peter M. Bilodeau noted in 2011 that “The DF-21D, if fully operational, could reach all current forward bases in the region with the exception of perhaps Guam. Therefore, the US must consider all current forward bases vulnerable to attack… Gregory R. Bamford noted in 2012 that “The loss of a Nuclear Powered Carrier (CVN) and its associated airwing or an Amphibious Assault Ship (multi-purpose) LHD with its Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) components due to PRC use of the DF-21 ASBM would be a significant strategic defeat for US naval forces in the region. The use of the DF-21, combined with the use of intra-theater ballistic missiles against aircraft, surface units and their associated logistical support bases, could close the South China Sea…”

The advances include strategic nuclear weaponry. Consider just one area: advanced means of delivering nuclear weapons.  An Investors Daily study details the challenge:
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“China and post-Soviet Russia are making continued progress on vehicles that can transport nuclear warheads at 10 times the speed of sound … Beijing [has] for the seventh time successfully flight-tested its DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle, traveling up to over 7,000 miles per hour…Three days earlier, Russia flight-tested its own hypersonic glider, launched from a ballistic missile…The new vehicles Russia and China are developing go hypersonic in mid-phase, and can maneuver at that high velocity, too fast for missile defenses to be effective…The Defense Department’s Missile Defense Agency says it isn’t funding any initiatives to counter hypersonic attack; a laser weapon that could shoot such weapons in flight won’t even be tested until 2021, years after China is expected to be able to deploy the DF-ZF.”

Bill Gertz, writing in the Free Beacon (which has provided exceptional coverage if China’s military threat) reports that China is “pursuing [a] ‘leap ahead’ high tech arms strategy…China is developing an array of advanced, high technology weapons designed to defeat the United States in a future conflict… ‘China is pursuing a range of advanced weapons with disruptive military potential,’ says the annual report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The report outlines six types of advanced arms programs that Beijing has made a priority development in seeking ‘dominance’ in the high-tech weapons area. They include maneuverable missile warheads, hypersonic weapons, laser and beam weapons, electromagnetic railguns, counterspace weapons, and artificial intelligence-directed robots.

The Congressional Research Service notes that “China is building a modern and regionally powerful military with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations away from China’s immediate periphery…China has engaged in a sustained and broad effort over more than 25 years to transform its military…into a high-technology, networked force with an increasing emphasis on joint operations and naval and air power… From 2005 through 2014, China’s official military budget increased at an average rate of 9.5% per year in real terms, allowing the PLA to improve its capabilities in many dimensions. PLA naval forces feature quieter submarines, large surface combatants with improved air defenses and long-range anti-ship cruise missiles, and a nascent aircraft carrier program. New air power capabilities include modern fighter aircraft, more supporting platforms and a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in production and under development. The PLA has increased the number and accuracy of its ballistic missiles for both nuclear and conventional strike missions. China has launched numerous satellites for military communications, surveillance, and navigation, and also has developed a variety of counter-space capabilities. The cyber operations of the PLA are harder to characterize, but reports indicate that China has invested heavily in this area…since the late 2000s the PLA has expanded the geographic scope of its operations.”

An area that is the most publicly-noted aspect of China’s advance both in numbers and sophistication in military is its navy. A just-released report from the Congressional Research Service describes the challenge:

“China since the early to mid-1990s has been steadily building a modern and powerful navy. China’s navy in recent years has emerged as a formidable military force within China’s near-seas region, and it is conducting a growing number of operations in more-distant waters, including the broader waters of the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and waters around Europe. Observers of Chinese and U.S. military forces view China’s improving naval capabilities as posing a challenge in the Western Pacific to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain control of blue-water ocean areas in wartime—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War. More broadly, these observers view China’s naval capabilities as a key element of a broader Chinese military challenge to the long-standing status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific…China’s naval modernization effort encompasses a wide array of platform and weapon acquisition programs, including anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), submarines, surface ships, aircraft, and supporting C4ISR (command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) systems… Observers believe China’s naval modernization effort is oriented toward … displacing U.S. influence in the Western Pacific; and asserting China’s status as a leading regional power and major world power.”

The New York Analysis continues its review of whether the 2018 defense budget is sufficient to meet threats facing the United States.

Due to its arm modernization and in its aggressive policies, Iran is a significant threat.  This is important both for the significance of its actions as a single nation, as well as a member of the maturing Russian-Chinese-Iranian axis. Tehran continues to develop its missile technology, provide major support and guidance for terrorist organizations, and expand its reach beyond the Middle East.

The Free Beacon  recently reported that “A top Iranian military commander has threatened to launch ballistic missile attacks on U.S. forces in the region amid a public effort by the Islamic Republic to show off its advanced missile capabilities, according to U.S. officials and regional reports.Iranian leaders disclosed that their advanced ballistic missile technology, which could be used as part of a nuclear weapons program, is sophisticated enough to strike U.S. forces up to nearly 1,300 miles, or 2,000 kilometers, away, which encompasses all U.S. bases in the region.”

Iran’s threat extends beyond the Middle East. In 2015, The United States Institute for Peace quoted the Chairman of the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen: “Iran and Hezbollah’s history of involvement in the Western Hemisphere has long been a source of concern for the United States. Given the nature of transnational criminal networks existing in Latin America and the rise of terrorism ideology being exported worldwide from Middle East, it is disturbing that the [Obama] State Department [had] failed to fully allocate necessary resources and attention to properly address this potential threat to our nation. It is well known that Iran poses a security threat to regional affairs and has expanded its ties in countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Ecuador.”

In November, according to a Daily Star report,  Iran’s Navy commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi “announced the major operation as he pledged to sail warships into the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico…The admiral said: ‘The appearance of our vessels in the Mediterranean and Suez Canal shocked the world and the US also made comments on it.’ He promised the warships would steam close to US waters “in the near future” and would visit nations in South America.”

In 2012, Rep. Jeff Duncan’s (R-SC) noted that Iran used its terrorist Hezbollah proxy force in the tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, to gain influence and power; built numerous “cultural centers” and overstaffed embassies to assist its covert goals; and supported the activities of the terrorist group Hamas in South America. He specified that Iran was complicit in numerous dangerous unlawful activities in addition to military threats, including drug trafficking, counterfeiting, money laundering, forged travel documents, intellectual property pirating, and providing havens for criminals and other terrorists. Sophisticated narco-tunneling techniques used by Hezbollah in Lebanon have been discovered along the U.S.-Mexican border, and Mexican gang members with Iranian-related tattoos have been captured.

Reports from around the world have highlighted Tehran’s growing military presence in the Western Hemisphere.  Germany’s Die Welt described the Islamic Republic’s construction of intermediate range missile launch pads on Venezuela’s Paraguana Peninsula.

The threat is not confined to low-level tactics.  There is mounting concern that both nuclear and ballistic missile threats are emerging from Venezuelan-Iranian cooperation.
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The Tehran/Caracas axis, first encouraged by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, is particularly troubling. The Foundry’s Peter Brookes has  reported  that the two nations have a Memorandum of Understanding “pledging full military support and cooperation that likely increases weapons sales.” One could easily see Tehran using Caracas as a stepping off point for attacking U.S. or other (e.g. Israeli) interests in this hemisphere or even the American homeland, especially if action is taken against Iran’s nuclear program.”

 He goes on to note that “There is concern that Iran and Venezuela are already cooperating on some nuclear issues.  There have been reports that Iran may be prospecting for uranium ore in Venezuela, which could aid both countries’ nuclear programs, should Caracas proceed…  While still prospective, of course, there is the possibility that Tehran, which has an increasingly capable missile program, could sell or help Caracas develop ballistic missiles capable of reaching American shores.”

  Iran’s interest in Latin America entails both its goals of threatening the United States and enhancing its nuclear capability.  In his testimony before the U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Ilan Berman stressed Iran’s need for uranium ore.

“Iran’s indigenous uranium ore reserves are known to be limited and mostly of poor quality…Cooperation on strategic resources has emerged as a defining feature of the alliance between the Islamic Republic and the Chavez Regime.  Iran is currently known to be mining in the Roraima Basin, adjacent to Venezuela’s border with Guyana.  Significantly, that geologic area is believed to be analogous to Canada’s Athabasca Basin, the world’s largest deposit of uranium.”

 He notes that Iran “boasts an increasingly robust paramilitary presence in the region.  The Pentagon, in its 2010 report to Congress on Iran’s military power, noted that the Qods force, the elite paramilitary unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, is now deeply involved in the Americas, stationing ‘operatives in foreign embassies, charities and religious/cultural institutions to foster relationships with people, often building  on socio-economic ties with the well-established Shia Diaspora,’ and even carrying on ‘paramilitary operations to support extremists and destabilize unfriendly regimes.”

Matthew Levitt, writing for the Washington Institute noted: “Iran and Hezbollah remain hyperactive in Latin America…In its 2015 annual terrorism report, the State Department highlighted the financial support networks Hezbollah maintains in Latin America. The report concluded that Hezbollah is “capable of operating around the globe.”

The Report Concludes Tomorrow.

The New York Analysis continues its review of whether the 2018 defense budget is sufficient to meet threats facing the United States.

One enduring myth that is consistently cited as a counter to arguments to adequately fund U.S. defenses is that the U.S. has a considerable lead in military technology.  That is no longer accurate. In both conventional and nuclear-related areas, China and Russia have equaled and in some cases exceeded America’s lead.

The Threat From Russia

Russia’s new Armata tank has three times the range of America’s Abrams. Task & Purpose reports that “Russia’s next-generation battle tank can reportedly out-stick the American armor in a heartbeat — and it’s coming to battlefields sooner than expected.”

Moscow has accelerated its development of other advanced nuclear weaponry. The Independent reports that Russia has developed a missile with unprecedented power The weapon, named the Satan-2, “ is said to be capable of carrying 12 nuclear warheads and could wipe out a whole country with a single strike.” Nuclear capable bombers are also enjoying a renaissance. The Russian news source RT reports that “A newly built Tupolev Tu-160 long-range heavy strategic bomber [NATO designation Blackjack]…was rolled out of the hangar as Russia resumes production of the world’s largest operational bomber …Russia’s military announced the decision to resume production of the Tu-160s in modernized Tu-160M2 variation back in 2015. Blackjack is largest combat aircraft in the world, with maximum takeoff weight of about 275 tons. It can cover a distance of more than 12,000 kilometers without refueling…The Tu-160 and other long-range aircraft resumed patrol flights over the Pacific and Atlantic in 2007…” The publication also reported  on Moscow’s ambitious submarine program. The Sun described the latest Russian “super-sub:” “RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin has unveiled his Navy’s most powerful nuclear submarine  – which can easily outgun its American rival. The Knyaz Vladimir is capable of launching 16 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), which can lay waste to cities up to 5,778 miles away. Russia’s nuclear-powered Borei-A-class sub has the ability to dive to about 400 metres, making it hard to detect by sonar. Russia now plans to build a total of eight of the super subs by 2025.”

In 2015, Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work stated: “Russia [is] modernizing … Its naval and air units are operating at a pace and an extent that hasn’t been seen in quite some time, to include a large increase in trans-oceanic and global military operations. And as General Dempsey has said, Russia’s activities in the Ukraine are, quote, “giving the world a disturbing image of the hybrid nature of military aggression in the 21st century.”

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In 2016, the commander of U.S. forces in Europe General Philip Breedlove warned: “we cannot ignore Russia’s increase in military activity which concerns all nations…Russia’s coercive use of energy has grown with threats and outright use of force. Eastern and Central European states, to include the Baltics, are concerned about Russia’s intentions in Europe and consider Russia’s aggression in Ukraine validation of their concerns.”

Moscow Times reports that “Russia’s military spending is set to increase despite the welfare budget decreasing…”

NATO describes Moscow’s drive to establish a dominant military: “Russia is roughly half-way through a major ten-year State Armaments Program, which foresees the procurement of large amounts of new or upgraded weapons systems and other military hardware, across all services of its armed forces, over the period 2011-2020…Overall, a large part of the program is likely to be fulfilled by 2020…”

The Report Continues Tomorrow.

The New York Analysis reviews whether the 2018 defense budget is sufficient to meet threats facing the United States.

In November, Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act  (NDAA)of 2018, providing $700 billion for national defense.

According to a Spacewar analysis, “The bill is some $26 billion above Trump’s initial military budget requests, and about 15 percent higher than the authorization in 2016, the last full year of Barack Obama’s presidency. It provides for $626 billion in base budget requirements, $66 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations, or warfighting, and an additional $8 billion for other defense activities. Increased spending is allocated for new F-35 fighter jets, ships and M1 Abrams tanks, military pay is raised by 2.4 percent and $4.9 billion is reserved for Afghanistan security forces, including a program integrating women into the country’s national defense. It also authorizes $12.3 billion for the Missile Defense Agency to bolster homeland, regional, and space missile defenses, including the expansion of ground-based interceptors and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, which has been recently deployed in South Korea”

Contrary to popular misconception, defense spending accounts for only about 14% of the federal budget, and 3.3% of GDP.According to Business Insider, Russia commits about 5.01% of its GDP for military spending.

It is an enduring mantra of the left that America overspends on defense.  They are joined at times by budget hawks who believe that the task of keeping the U.S. safe can be done on the cheap. While any waste or fraud should be attacked in all government budgets, the dire threats facing the U.S. require substantially more resources. The Pentagon endured substantial budget cuts during the Obama administration, a result both of the former President’s unrealistic views on global affairs and proponents of the sequester concept, who, in an effort to rein in the deficit, made no distinction between truly vital programs and those that are merely pork and fluff.  While President Trump has increased funding, the twin challenges of restoring a military that was gutted for the prior eight years, and the rise of armed threats from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and terrorists require a more realistic approach.

Some of the shortages facing the U.S. military are extraordinary.  A study from The Hill h reports that “Top Air Force leaders and lawmakers are warning that a pilot shortage of 2,000 could cripple the service, leaving it unready to handle its responsibilities. Military.com revealed that U.S. Navy “officials confirmed …week that the service will need “on the order” of 350 ships to accomplish its global mission in the coming decade… Currently, the Navy has 275 active ships.” The U.S. Navy is facing difficulties funding even its current undersized strength. A Breaking Defense report revealed that “A massive maintenance backlog has idled 15 nuclear-powered attack submarines for a total of 177 months, and the Navy’s plan to mitigate the problem is jeopardized by budget gridlock…Figures provided to us … show 14 other submarines are affected, with projected delays ranging from two months (USS Columbia, Montpellier, and Texas) to 21 (Greenville). And the Navy can’t simply send them back to sea, since without the maintenance work, the submarines can’t be certified as safe to dive…”

A CNN analysis poses the question: “questions are emerging as to whether the US Navy is up to the challenges it faces in the Pacific — from both a nuclear-armed North Korea and a strengthening China — at a time when its top leaders acknowledge it lacks the money, manpower and weapons to ensure success.”
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The Army, exhausted from decades of fighting, is both understrength and utterly exhausted.  Marine pilots lack funds for adequate training.

The Obama experiment in cutting defense spending ended in failure, as China, Russia, and North Korea capitalized on the opportunity to expand their aggressive activity.

Unlike many other portions of the federal budget, military spending is in response to external factors beyond Washington’s control. An objective examination of those factors refutes the claims of those who believe the U.S. defense budget can be kept at current or even lower levels.

While media attention is finally being paid to the mistake of not developing a comprehensive missile defense shield  as protection against the rapidly growing nuclear threat from North Korea and elsewhere,  insufficient coverage has been given to the dramatic buildup and aggressive actions of Russia, China, and Iran.  Nor has there been adequate discussion over the fact that those three nations have formed a virtual alliance aimed against Washington and its allies.  Together, they represent the most dangerous and powerful foe America has ever faced.  They constitute the only adversary that is larger geographically, in population, and in industrial capacity the U.S. has ever faced.  Further, unlike the Axis powers Germany and Japan in World War 2, they are contiguous, and able to easily combine their strength.

Some observers may include North Korea in this grouping. Despite a lengthy list of assurances from Beijing that it seeks to restrain Pyongyang, the reality is considerably different. An October Carnegie study  notes: “It may seem as if Beijing finally is ready to work with Washington—but appearances can be deceiving.”

The Report Continues Monday.