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Russia’s Arctic Threat Grows

Russia is engaging in new and extremely worrisome activities in the Arctic. According to The NATO Association’s Aleksi Korpela “…the erection of military bases and deployment of forces rings ominous to contiguous states and those with Arctic possessions or interests. This issue has become especially controversial in the last few years, as Russia has expanded its military infrastructure following the creation of a new strategic district: the Arctic Joint Strategic Command (OSK) … …Russia’s most important maritime asset in the Arctic is its fleet of icebreakers, which is the largest in the world.”

A Daily Mail report has disclosed that Moscow has just unveiled another addition to its overwhelming Arctic military infrastructure on Alexander Land on the Franz Josef Archipelago. The facility can host nuclear-capable war planes and 150 troops. Russian bombers and fighter aircraft have recently come threateningly close to Alaska, and have traveled close to U.S. shores.  (Basing arrangements with Nicaragua provide the Kremlin with the ability to engage in this activity without having to make round-trip return to Russia.)  According to the Daily Mail, “Officials have said they may deploy military jets there. MiG-31 fighters, …or the SU-34, a frontline bomber are seen as options…[Moscow’s new bases] will, in some areas, give Moscow more military capabilities than the Soviet Union once had.”

Mark Galeotti has written in the Moscow Times that “Russia is using Extortion in the Arctic…  Russia’s icebreaker fleet is a particular ‘ice-power’ asset: It is the world’s largest and includes the massive nuclear-powered vessel 50 Years of Victory… This is all very impressive, but it begs the question of just what these forces are meant to do. Bombers cannot dig for oil, infantry cannot collect taxes from passing Chinese container ships. But they can board and occupy oil rigs, seize cargo ships and threaten any forces that seek to challenge Moscow’s right to do this. After all, it may be impossible to ‘occupy’ the Arctic, but Russia is developing assets that could deny it to anyone else.”

In 2015, the military newspaper  Stars and Stripes reported that a new Russian Arctic command was under development, including four new Arctic brigades, 50 airfields by 2020, increased long-range air patrols by Russian bombers and a total of 40 conventional and nuclear icebreakers, with 11 more planned. That same year, the BBC  reported that Russia was developing a new naval infrastructure in the region. In addition to a new air defense base on Sredniy Island, five island bases were being built by 1,500 workers – at Alexandra Land, Rogachevo, Cape Schmidt, Wrangel and Kotelny. During that year’s summer months, according to Defense News, Russia launched military exercises in the region that included over 1,000 soldiers, 14 aircraft and 34 special military units.

This was occurring as the United States was reducing its military spending under the Obama Administration. According to testimony given earlier this year by Admiral William Gortney, commander of U.S. Northern Command, ‘Russian heavy bombers flew more out-of-area patrols in 2014 than at any time since the Cold War.’ Russia also launched a massive, five-day Arctic training event, involving 38,000 servicemen, more than 50 ships and submarines, and 110 aircraft.”

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry , Moscow  has claimed approximately 1.2 million square kilometers  of the Arctic, 350 nautical miles from the coast. The areas include the Lomonosov Ridge, Mendeleev-Alpha Rise and Chukchi Plateau.
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Moscow’s military aircraft have flown provocatively close to Arctic-area territories belonging to NATO members.

According to Russia Direct, “Russia’s claims on …vast swaths of territory in the Arctic are reinforced by its ability to project force in the region. Its fleet of several dozens of icebreakers, including nuclear, as compared to America’s six icebreakers, [only one of which is truly Arctic-capable] gives Russia an economic and military advantage in the Arctic. The Deputy Prime Minister of Russia in charge of the defense industry, Dmitry Rogozin, stated that Russia has already launched the construction of a new nuclear icebreaker fleet and that three units will start their operations by 2017, 2019 and 2020, respectively.”

The Arctic is a vital area both for strategic and economic purposes. It is believed to possess a quarter of the planet’s energy supplies.

In addition to gaining a significant military advantage, Putin is seeking to gain access to the wealth of resources in the Arctic region.  Business Insider notes: “In order to capitalize on the oil and gas under the Arctic seabed…Moscow is undertaking a major military upgrade of its northern coast and outlying archipelagos…In total, Moscow’s plans involve the opening of ten Arctic search-and-rescue stations, 16 deep-water ports, 13 airfields, and 10 air-defense radar stations across its Arctic periphery.”

Newsweek  describes the situation as “ a new kind of geopolitical cold war, and the U.S. is in danger of losing. ‘We’re not even in the same league as Russia right now,’ Coast Guard Commandant Paul F. Zukunft says. ‘We’re not playing in this game at all.’ In the Arctic, the only way to move around on the surface of the sea in even thinner summer ice—to do search and rescue, lead other naval or commercial ships, or conduct heavy research—is often on icebreakers. The U.S. has only two, both old and ‘there’s no money for new icebreakers,’ reports Fran Ulmer, chair of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission. Ulmer says an icebreaker can cost up to a billion dollars, and ‘it takes years to get one built.’ Russia operates 27 icebreakers, and China, which is not an Arctic nation but has aspirations in the area, will have two by next year.”

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Is the U.S. surrendering the Arctic?

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry , Moscow is claiming approximately 1.2 million square kilometers  of the Arctic, 350 nautical miles from the coast. The areas include the Lomonosov Ridge, Mendeleev-Alpha Rise and Chukchi Plateau. Moscow wants the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, which opposed a similar attempt by the Kremlin in 2002, to consider the matter this year, but a spokesperson for the Commission indicated the issue will not arise for about seven months.

The Arctic is a vital area both for strategic and economic purposes. It is believed to possess a quarter of the planet’s energy supplies.

Moscow has significantly increased its military presence at the top of the world, reopening former Soviet Union cold war bases and developing at least ten new sites the Kremlin calls rescue stations in the region. In 2007, one of its submarines dropped a canister with a Russian flag in the area to symbolize its claim.

Moscow’s military aircraft have flown provocatively close to Arctic-area territories belonging to NATO members.

According to Russia Direct, “Russia’s claims on …vast swaths of territory in the Arctic are reinforced by its ability to project force in the region. Its fleet of several dozens of icebreakers, including nuclear, as compared to America’s six icebreakers, [only one of which is truly Arctic-capable] gives Russia an economic and military advantage in the Arctic. The Deputy Prime Minister of Russia in charge of the defense industry, Dmitry Rogozin, stated that Russia has already launched the construction of a new nuclear icebreaker fleet and that three units will start their operations by 2017, 2019 and 2020, respectively.”

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) told Fox News  earlier this month “Right now, the Russians are playing chess in the Arctic and our Administration still seems to think it’s tic-tac-toe.” China is now also entering into the fray, constructing its own icebreaker as part of its massive naval buildup.

As the threat unfolds, the U.S. is reducing its Army forces in the region. Sen. Sullivan along with other members of the Alaska delegation recently submitted a letter to U.S. Army Secretary John McHugh on the force reduction:
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 “In accordance with our Congressional responsibility to provide oversight, we request the documentation used by senior U.S. Army leadership to make this strategically short-sighted decision. In our view, the current threat environment and the location of those threats does not align with the U.S. Army’s decision to remove forces from Alaska.

 “As a delegation, we share the concerns expressed by Generals Joe Dunford, Paul Selva, Mark Milley, and Robert Neller about Russia’s threat to U.S. national security.  Unfortunately, we believe the U.S. Army failed to fully consider the importance of Alaska’s Army forces in countering Russian emergence as a leading threat, a fact stated by numerous senior Department of Defense leaders…

 “As you are aware, the 4-25 Airborne Bridge Combat Team (ABCT) can respond to most crisis areas in the Northern Hemisphere faster than anywhere else in the continental U.S. Additionally, we believe that Alaska is home to some of the world’s greatest, most abundant, topographically-challenging, and climate-diverse joint training areas.  However, it has come to our attention that Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson (JBER) scored in the bottom third of the U.S. Army’s Military Value Analysis (MVA).  Needless to say, this modeling perplexes us.”

Further, as the New York Analysis of Policy & Government recently noted, the U.S. has only two icebreakers, while Russia has forty. The President has stated he will try to deliver only a single new icebreaker by 2022.

The New York Times reports that Coast Guard Commandant Paul F. Zukunft has noted that “We have been for some time clamoring about our nation’s lack of capacity to sustain any meaningful presence in the Arctic.”

Despite widespread concern the U.S. State Department appears relatively unconcerned.  In response to press inquiries about Russia’s growing presence and military maneuvers, a senior state department official stated: “I get intelligence briefings regularly and I’m watching what the Russians are doing. Most of what I have seen in terms of their buildup, in terms of improving infrastructure along the Northern Sea Route, are things that I think the United States should be doing as well – building infrastructure, putting in search-and-rescue capabilities, improving communications capabilities in the North. So I’m not troubled by most of what I see – let me emphasize most of what I see. Arctic maneuvers, military operations, I’m not – I have not seen anything that goes much above and beyond what we’ve seen in the past decade or so from the Russians. What has happened is, for instance, the Norwegians and the Russians have been conducting joint military exercises up until when the sanctions were invoked. Because of the sanctions, we’re not allowed to have military-to-military contact and operations, so they’ve done it separately. When the Norwegians did their exercises, it got no notice. When the Russians did their exercises, it was portrayed as Russian aggression. I’m not sure that they’ve done anything more than they’ve done in the past, and they have a right to take necessary steps to preserve their sovereignty of the waters that they’re responsible for.”

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Obama’s Odd View on Russian Power

The President recently stated that Russia was only a “regional power.”  We recently reviewed the facts to determine whether there is any realistic basis for Mr. Obama’s unexpected contention.

Of course, the first question to arise is, which region is the Comander-in-Chief referring to. Moscow’s vast domain  stretches from Europe to the borders of Iran in the Middle East to the farthest shores of Asia and the Pacific Ocean, and of course the Arctic as well.  Geographically, it is almost impossible to proclaim Russia as a regional power when its territory, the largest on Earth, is so vast.

In terms of strategic power, it is quite difficult to understand how the Russian nuclear arsenal could be remotely considered as regional. Certainly, it’s triad of ICBMs, many with multiple warheads, nuclear bombers and nuclear capable submarines both of which currently patrol the U.S. coasts,  are the equal of America’s.  Additionally, its mobile launchers provide the Kremlin with perhaps the most survivable land-based strategic nuclear weapons system on the planet.

In terms of land power, Russia vastly outstrips the US in the numbers of tanks, mobile artillery, and rocket projectors

Nor can it be said that the Kremlin’s weapons systems are second rate.  Its nuclear arsenal is more up to date than Americas, and much of its conventional arsenal is first rate. Mr. Putin has pledged to spend over $770 billion in further upgrades, including a sizeable sum for its navy.

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Putin also is militarizing the Arctic as well.

In a new wrinkle, Russia’s growing alliance with China gives the Kremlin a global reach in excess of that it enjoying during the Cold War.

All this is being done as the U.S. slashes its military fuding and Europe continues  starve their armed forces of necessary financial support.

We find no basis for President Obama’s contention.