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Russia’s “Near Abroad”

When viewing national boundaries on a Russian map the phrase “near abroad” comes to mind. It describes the area just outside the country’s official political boundaries but still inside Moscow’s sphere of influence. It includes places like the Ukraine, Belarus, and other more fully independent East European nations. Russia’s concept of its “near abroad” is expanding in the years since Vladimir Putin assumed power. We witnessed this in his 2014 annexation of the Crimean region of Ukraine and more recently in Russia’s building of additional military and air bases above the Arctic Circle. While China, which is 900 miles to the south of the Arctic, calls itself a “near Arctic nation,” Russian territory legally extends above the Arctic Circle. Russia’s “near abroad” encompasses not only the physical Arctic lands to Russia’s north, but under Putin his country also is becoming more politically and militarily active in the entire region. Give the potential economic benefits and natural resources that should give the West cause for concern.

Earlier this year Russia, represented by Nikolay V. Korchunov, assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council which governs the eight Arctic states’ interests in the region. Putin’s desire for a more prestigious and influential global role is seen not only in the chambers of the Arctic council itself, but it also is evidenced by Moscow’s advanced military buildup in the High North. Putin has upgraded its military bases and airfields left abandoned during the Cold War period and added new ones. CNN reported earlier this year that satellite images indicate two Russian radar stations are now operating in Provideniya and Wrangel Island across from Alaska, and a new quick-reaction alert force has been  organized in the Far East port town of Anadyr. Russia also constructed an airstrip on Kotelny Island in northeastern Siberia. In the northwestern region Putin added an airfield on the country’s northernmost military base of Nagurskoye. This includes a storage facility being built for the unmanned underwater nuclear-powered Poseidon drone. 

While Putin may be talking in the Arctic Council about “sustaining the Arctic environment” his actions betray a different course. The Pentagon is monitoring the building up closely to determine the extent of the potential threat to US national security interests in the region. Earlier this year Russia conducted massive Arctic maneuvers this year that included over 40 drills. The “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, which was approved by Putin on November 30, 2016, covers Russian geographic priorities and mentions objectives on all continents, according to a recent RAND report. “As climate change in the Arctic opens new viable transit lanes and competing continental shelf sovereignty claims, strategic competition in the area is likely to increase,” it says. 

Russian military policy prioritizes access to the Arctic to maintain its nuclear deterrence capability which is the first element of Russia’s defense strategy. From a Russian perspective it is evidence to confirm for the world that Russia is again a great power. More than two-thirds of Russia’s nuclear warheads are located in the High North. That provides Russia with excellent access to the Atlantic Ocean and its strategic bombers basing for direct flight paths to the US mainland. With increased access to the Arctic, Putin also seeks to increase his protection of Russian lands on the country’s northern flank. 

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There also are vast amounts of natural resources under the Northern Sea Route (NSR), from the Barents Sea to the Bering Strait. “NSR is in Russian territorial waters [and] ships transiting the NSR need the permission of Russian authorities and must pay transit fees,” according to the RAND study. Putin is quite aware of the potential economic windfall of the NSR. A ship transiting from South Korea to Germany through the Suez Canal takes 34 days to make the journey; using the NSR would be reduced to 23. Financially, Russia also benefits from its own vast reserves of oil and gas in the Arctic. Russia may have as much as 48 billion barrels of oil and 43 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, according to Putin. He publicly stated he intends for Russia to produce a full 30% of all hydrocarbons in the Arctic by 2050. For the Russian leader that justifies building and expanding bases, resuming a warship presence in the Arctic and flying strategic bombers in the Arctic. The question is how far will Putin go to protect his country’s perceived national interests? 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. 

Illustration: Pixabay