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Will China and India Fight?

The New York Analysis of Policy and Government examines the tensions between the world’s two most populous nations in this two-part report

Two giant, nuclear armed nations, China and India, have pulled back from a  tense standoff concerning an inflammatory border dispute.

The drama is far from over, however. According to a Spacewar report, “India’s army chief has said his country must be prepared for war and accused China of ‘testing our limits’, days after the nuclear-armed neighbours ended one of their worst border stand-offs in decades. General Bipin Rawat said India could not afford to be complacent and should be prepared for the possibility of an all-out war.”

Continuing its pattern of aggressive expansionism, China attempted to construct a road in a portion of the “Tri-Junction” region, where China, Bhutan and India meet. The area in question is claimed by Bhutan, a remote, mountainous nation of less than 15,000 square miles populated by just 750,000 people.  Bhutanese soldiers tried to stop the construction, according to India. India dispatched its troops in coordination with Bhutan. India and Bhutan are allies.

According to Current Affairs “Under the 2007 India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty, both countries have agreed to cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests… the Eastern Army Command and the Eastern Air Command of India have integrated protection of Bhutan into their role…”

Indian and Chinese soldiers have since planted themselves on the disputed land.

The Asia Times describes China’s perspective: Beijing asserts that, “on June 18, 270 Indian troops, driving two bulldozers, crossed the international border with China at the Doka La mountain pass to obstruct road-building on the Chinese side. They pitched tents there and refused to withdraw despite repeated Chinese demands at various levels.” China maintains that ‘Indian forces illegally crossed into Chinese territory in an area where there is a ‘clear and delimited boundary,’ in an attempt to ‘change the status quo of the boundary.”

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China’s maritime expansionism in the Pacific is well known, but it also has a history of forcefully annexing adjacent land areas, and engaging in massive human rights violations to maintain control.

According to Free Tibet “Following China’s Communist revolution in 1948, it invaded Tibet, [a geographically large nation] in 1950. Overwhelmed, Tibet was forced to give up its independence. After a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959, the 14th Dalai Lama – Tibet’s political and spiritual leader at the time – fled into exile in India followed by tens of thousands of Tibetans. Since 1959, China’s government has exercised total political control over Tibet, using all the tools of repression to deter and punish Tibetan resistance.”

That repression was harsh, resulting in close to a million casualties. Displays of the traditional Tibetan flag, sending an email abroad, or uttering the phrase “human rights” are grounds for arrest. According to Free Tibet  “China has closed 99% of Tibet’s monasteries, jailed thousands of monks and banned Dalai Lama images.”

The Wall Street Journal notes that “The two nuclear-armed nations face off from time to time along the long, undemarcated stretches of their border. India lost a war, fought over territorial issues, to China in 1962…Ties between the two countries, never close, have grown far knottier as China has pursued regional dominance. It has made inroads into India’s traditional sphere of influence, from Nepal to Sri Lanka and the Indian Ocean. In response, India has forged closer relations with the U.S. and Japan, moves that have irked Beijing. India has also watched warily as Beijing has tried to shift the balance of power in Asia by enforcing its territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea.”

China has refused to enter into negotiations until India withdraws.

The Report concludes tomorrow.