For a time span of approximately sixty years, the Pacific Ocean had been under the firm control of the United States, predominately due to the supremacy of its Navy.
But in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington adopted a belief that there were no great powers to challenge it. The size of the fleet was reduced from 600 ships to 274 or less. Little attention was paid to the vast buildup on the other side of the vast Pacific, as China, buoyed by its enormous wealth, began its drive to become the largest naval power on the planet.
Under the Obama Administration, the reduced size of the American military was matched by a reluctance to employ U.S. armed strength or diplomatic muscle, as well as a reduction in funds to build for the future.
A vacuum was created, one which Beijing was all too eager to fill. A key turning point occurred when China’s navy illegally sailed into the Philippine-owned Scarborough Shoal. Despite American obligations to Manila and a subsequent World Court decision declaring the aggression unlawful, Washington failed to even lodge a diplomatic protest.
Within Washington, a sharp disagreement occurred. A majority of members of the relevant Congressional committees, joined by defense officials, began openly to worry about the danger. However, according to the Navy Times “The White House has barred Pentagon leaders from a key talking point when it comes to publicly describing the military challenges posed by China. In February, Defense Secretary Ash Carter cited the ‘return to great power of competition’ in the Asia-Pacific, ‘where China is rising.’ Similarly, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson characterized China and Russia as rivals in this “great power competition” in his maritime strategy.”
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While the military could be ordered into silence, others could be more open. The Scout.com site notes: “…the Chinese are reportedly working on a handful of high-tech next-generation ships, weapons and naval systems….China has plans to grow its navy to 351 ships by 2020 as the Chinese continue to develop their military’s ability to strike global targets, according to a recent Congressional report.
The English-language Chinamil.com notes “…by around 2020, China will have both the largest (at 351 ships) navy in the world (by combatant, underway replenishment, and submarine ship count) and the second most capable “far seas” navy in the world. The PLA Navy will have: A well balanced fleet in terms of the full range of naval capabilities…More modern multi-mission frigates (FFG) (30-32) than any other navy;… [and] A “new far seas” navy; all warships built in 21st century.
2020 will arrive in just few short years, but the threat to the U.S. Navy already exists. A review in the Diplomat warns that China has a whole host of options to harass American carriers in the Asia-Pacific. Even if such efforts do not deliver a mission kill against a carrier, they could “be so consumed with defending themselves that they would not be able to use significant numbers of their aircraft for defending Taiwan.” He notes that “carriers operating within about a thousand miles of China’s coast, for example, would also be subject to attack by land-based Chinese Su-30 and J-11B fighters, JH-7 supersonic fighter bombers, and H-6 bombers, all of which can be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles.” It seems that while American carriers are certainly prepared to defend themselves, the sheer amount of challenges they would face could prove fatal.”
That description, dire as it is, fails to include two facts. China already has more submarines than the U.S. Navy. Beijing also has another extraordinary weapon unique to the Chinese arsenal: the Dong Feng-21 missile. Based on land, it could attack an aircraft carrier a thousand miles at sea.