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The Myth of China’s Peaceful Rise

The hope that China would peacefully rise to great power status continues to be shattered.

Rather than becoming a nation that uses its enormous military and economic might to benefit both its own citizenry and the international community, Beijing is following a pattern of aggression.  To those mindful of history, its actions are highly reminiscent of Imperial Japan’s belligerent actions that led to World War II in the Pacific.

A five member panel at The Tribunal of the Permanent Court at The Hague, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas has ruled in favor of the Philippines in its dispute with China. China claims almost all of the South China Sea, and has deployed its military to enforce its will.

Beijing bases its claim on its internationally unrecognized “Nine Dash Line” demarcation.  The Tribunal concluded that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the ‘Nine-dash line’.

The specific arbitration before the Hague concerned the role of historic rights and the source of maritime entitlements in the South China Sea, the status of certain maritime features and the maritime entitlements they are capable of generating, and the lawfulness of certain actions by China that were alleged by the Philippines to violate the Convention.

Having found that certain areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, the Tribunal found that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone by (a) interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, (b) constructing artificial islands and (c) failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing in the zone. …The Tribunal further held that Chinese law enforcement vessels had unlawfully created a serious risk of collision when they physically obstructed Philippine vessels.

The Tribunal also considered the effect on the marine environment of China’s recent large-scale land reclamation and construction of artificial islands at seven features in the Spratly Islands and found that China had caused severe harm to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation to preserve and protect fragile ecosystems and the habitat of depleted, threatened, or endangered species. The Tribunal also found that Chinese authorities were aware that Chinese fishermen have harvested endangered sea turtles, coral, and giant clams on a substantial scale in the South China Sea (using methods that inflict severe damage on the coral reef environment) and had not fulfilled their obligations to stop such activities.

As it had previously announced, China completely rejected the ruling. Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, made the following remarks in response to today’s ruling on the South China Sea arbitration case:

“Today’s ruling is clear, unambiguous, and reinforces the international order.  The United States should act to give this ruling weight by continuing our free navigation of the seas with our allies and partners in the region, maintaining a robust and ready naval presence in the area, and demonstrating that we are a reliable ally to countries in the region.” 

 In testimony  before the House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia last week, Abraham Denmark, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, noted:

“The South China Sea is an area of immense economic and strategic importance. For centuries, it has been a major crossroads of international trade and commerce that connected cultures and economies from East Africa and the Middle East, through South and Southeast Asia, to Japan and the Korean peninsula in Northeast Asia. For decades, it has been a critical operational area for the U.S. military and central to our strategy to strengthen a principled order that enables stability and prosperity across the region… Conflicting maritime claims have exacerbated long-simmering territorial disputes and threaten to disrupt the remarkable stability and economic gains the region has enjoyed for decades.

“China, in particular, has undertaken a series of initiatives that set it apart from all other claimants…“Examples of concerning Chinese behavior in the past few years include:

  •  Between December 2013 and October 2015, China reclaimed approximately 3,200 acres of land in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea—a development we detailed in our Annual Report to Congress on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016. For context, over the same time period, other claimants reclaimed approximately 50 acres.
  • China has used low-intensity coercion to enhance its presence and control in disputed areas of the South China Sea. China continues to employ China Coast Guard and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ships to implement its claims by maintaining a near-continuous presence in disputed areas in an attempt to demonstrate some form of continuous administration. These efforts have included issuing fishing regulations that 3 covered disputed areas, blocking access of non-Chinese registered fishing vessels to disputed areas, and issuing warnings to civilian and military aircraft to depart the area while they were operating in international airspace.
  • China has continued to build harbors, communications and surveillance systems, logistical facilities, and three military-grade airfields on many of the features it occupies. In the past year, China also has deployed radar systems, anti-ship cruise missiles, surface to-air missiles, and has rotated fighter jets through features it claims in the South China Sea.

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“Furthermore, the construction of hangars, anti-aircraft guns, and fuel and water underground storage facilities would support extended deployments of multiple aircraft and ships. And finally, in April, China’s most senior military officer led a delegation on a tour of China’s occupied features in the Spratly Islands to inspect the construction and visit the soldiers stationed on each feature. …Once completed and outfitted, these facilities will greatly improve China’s capabilities to enforce its maritime and territorial claims, and project power further from China’s shores.”

Beijing’s rapid and extraordinary naval development has given the nation a submarine fleet already larger than the U.S. Navy’s, and its fleet will be larger than America’s within four years.

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China Expected to Reject Peaceful Resolution of Pacific Dispute

The world’s most dangerous maritime dispute is awaiting a ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.China has unlawfully laid claim to almost the entire oceanic area known as the South China Sea, and which the Philippines call the West Philippine Sea.  It encompasses a 1,400,000 square mile region from Singapore and the Malacca Straits to the Strait of Taiwan. A third of the planet’s shipping transits through it, and huge deposits of oil and gas, as well as a wealth of fish, are contained within.The Philippines initiated proceedings against Beijing in accordance with the United Nations Law of the Sea.  International Law would classify maritime features, including hundreds of very small uninhabited spots, many of which are now questionably claimed and some occupied by China’s military, as rocks, low tide elevations, or submerged banks, but not islands, which overturns China’s claims to use those already disputed sites as a way to extend its claims over ocean areas.The Philippines simply seek to have the right to operate within its own exclusive economic zone restored and have access to its key offshore areas without Chinese harassment.China has already stated that it has no intention of abiding by the results, and rejects the jurisdiction of The Hague.  In other related disputes in the area, Beijing has not been cooperative in attempts to negotiate the issue through regional talks, preferring to deal separately with each national claimant, a tactic that allows it to use armed intimidation as an effective tool. China’s General Luo Yuan said his nation should be prepared for “war at all costs” to enforce its claims, according to a commentary posted on china.org.cn.

Writing in the Asia Times   National Security author Bill Gertz writes that “China’s takeover of the South China Sea is nearly complete and Beijing is now stepping up its sophisticated information warfare campaign in preparation for an expected unfavorable ruling from an international tribunal affecting its island claims… The strategic goal of China in the South China Sea is to solidify control over the waters without firing a shot, in much the same way as Russia was able to do with its military annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in March 2014. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) refers to this as the use of “military soft power.”

During the past several years, unrestrained by a weakened American navy and an irresolute President, China has laid claim to most of the South China Sea region. The basis of China’s claim is what it describes as a “Nine Dash Line,” which, according to U.S. sources,  is “a Chinese map of the South China Sea showing nine line segments that, if connected, would enclose an area covering roughly 90% [of the entire region.] …The area inside the nine line segments far exceeds what is claimable as territorial waters under customary international law of the sea… and includes waters that are within the claimable [and internationally recognized]  (and in some places are quite near the coasts) of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Vietnam.”

Under the Obama Administration, little of substance has been done to discourage China’s aggressive actions.  The White House has refused to side with America’s allies such as the Philippines or Japan when China engaged in provocative actions against those nations. Even as China used force in furtherance of its goals, all the U.S. Administration did was to encourage a “peaceful resolution,” an act which some has said was a betrayal of allies, and a complete denial of the rule of law which objective observers note rejects Beijing’s claims.

President Obama has emphasized what the Administration describes as a “pivot to Asia” of U.S. armed forces, in response to China’s actions.  However, the substance of the pivot involves comparatively little force, since the U.S. navy is now a shadow of its former size, the smallest it has been since before World War 1, and China, in contrast, has dramatically built up the size of its forces.  It now has more submarines than the U.S. Navy, and its fleet will outnumber America’s within four years.  Beijing also has extraordinary new land based weapons, such as the DF-21missile which can destroy American naval vessels at a distance of 900 miles.

The President has concluded agreements with Vietnam as a means to stiffen regional resistance. However, speaking in Hawaii, Mr. Obama denied the deal was aimed at China.

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