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Quick Analysis

Putin’s Growing Challenge

“It’s going to get bad this summer, really bad!” Those were words spoken earlier this week by a former US Marine Colonel with extensive experience in the European command. As summer approaches there is growing concern in Washington about the expansion and intensification of the war in Ukraine. Russia is biding its time this spring while it replenishes its ammunition supplies and secures more volunteers to fight on the front lines. Mounting losses over the last year means that President Vladimir Putin must reach further into the outer regions of Russia to recruit soldiers. Those regions are mainly populated by non-ethnic Russians with contempt for a government in Moscow that has forgotten them and ignored their needs in the past. It raises a challenge for Putin. This spring Russia is experiencing increasing ethnic tension and greater anti-Kremlin sentiment in areas as far away as Siberia. Putin faces a major task in maintaining a “volunteer” military as the number of able-bodied Russians willing to fight in Ukraine dwindles, with the war passing the second-year mark. According to Sergey Sukhankin of the Jamestown Foundation, Moscow is relying heavily on “so-called ‘volunteer’ battalions assembled from the outer regions of Russia.” So far, Putin’s strategy has enabled the government to avoid discontent building to unmanageable levels among ethnic Russians living in and near Moscow. Siberian units fighting on the front have sustained heavy losses and, according to Sukhankin, it “sets a dangerous precedent and poses the risk of inflaming animosity between Russia’s regions and its federal center.” The Buryatia-based Baikal battalion, which was formed 20 months ago, lost so many volunteers that there are no more to join the unit after a battle outside the village of Petropavlivka in Kharkiv Oblast in which over 180 were killed, according to the New Times of Russia. The story is played out again and again. One of the local elites from the Public Chamber of the Republic of Buryatia questioned whether it was “The stupidity and sloppiness of the military command or is this deliberate sabotage….” This region is one of the poorer areas in Russia. Residents often lack military compensation for the disabilities or deaths of their family members fighting in a war, in which well over 1,300 of their neighbors lost their lives. When they receive money for enlisting it is a low, one-time payment of 100,000 rubles (about US $1,000). The publication Novayagazeta.eu says that the region has the fourth highest total losses in all of Russia. Units from other autonomous regions that received less dangerous assignments and suffered fewer losses are more closely involved in promoting “military-patriotic” education for local youth and supporting Putin’s war. They, in essence, serve as a war propaganda machine for the Kremlin. There is growing evidence, despite Kremlin disinformation efforts this spring, that Putin cannot count on the majority of non-ethnic Russians to support the war effort in Ukraine. Without the backing of Russia’s ethnic minorities Putin’s buildup of arms will be of little use. Sukhankin says that “one should not forget about the pro-Ukrainian Sibir battalion and its leader Vladislav Ammosov, an ethnic Yakut who worked in Russia’s military intelligence agency for 15 years before defecting to fight for Ukraine.” Putin does not have an easy path to victory in front of him. The war is likely to intensify this summer with the replenished armaments, but so is anti-Kremlin sentiment. Add to it, Putin faces challenges to find the bodies to send to the front lines. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry

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Israel, Ukraine and American Divisiveness

The fight for Ukraine and Israel’s security is vital not just for those nations, but for America as well. Retired Marine Lt. Col. Hunter “Rip” Rawlings, who has served in the affected regions, explains why. Author Brent Hamachek describes what has caused the extreme divisiveness in America today. If you missed the program on your local TV station, watch it here: https://rumble.com/v4q11ni-the-american-political-zone-april-16-2024.html Photo: Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder conducts a news briefing at the Pentagon, April 15, 2024.